Please create an account to participate in the Slashdot moderation system

 



Forgot your password?
typodupeerror
×
Earth China

India To Become World's Most Populous Country In 2023, UN Says 62

India is on track to overtake China as the planet's most populous country next year, according to a U.N. report published on Monday. CNBC reports: The report, from the population division of the U.N.'s Department of Economic and Social Affairs, said China and India were each home to over 1.4 billion people in 2022. "India is projected to surpass China as the world's most populous country during 2023," the U.N. said. The Indian government's census for 2011 put the country's population at more than 1.2 billion. "The global human population will reach 8.0 billion in mid-November 2022 from an estimated 2.5 billion people in 1950," according to the U.N.'s report.

Looking further ahead, the U.N. said its latest projections showed the global population could reach roughly 8.5 billion in 2030 and 10.4 billion in 2100. Last year, the U.N. said that the "average fertility" of the planet's population amounted to 2.3 births per woman across a lifetime. This compares to approximately 5 births per woman in 1950, according to Monday's report. "Global fertility is projected to decline further to 2.1 births per woman by 2050," it said.
This discussion has been archived. No new comments can be posted.

India To Become World's Most Populous Country In 2023, UN Says

Comments Filter:
  • by skam240 ( 789197 ) on Tuesday July 12, 2022 @05:12AM (#62695776)

    Given that 58% of their population earns their income through agriculture https://www.ibef.org/industry/... [ibef.org]. meanwhile water scarcity in the country gets worse and worse every year https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org] this is just a disaster waiting to happen.

    (and yes when over a billion people start having major disruptions in their lives it will effect us here in the US)

    • by RemindMeLater ( 7146661 ) on Tuesday July 12, 2022 @09:05AM (#62696280)
      And the heat projections for India with global warming are particularly dire. Areas of the country will be legit uninhabitable for periods of time.
    • by ShanghaiBill ( 739463 ) on Tuesday July 12, 2022 @09:47AM (#62696408)

      India's water problems are exacerbated by idiotic government policies. Farmers in many regions receive free electricity, so they run their pumps 24/7, depleting aquifers and encouraging wasteful irrigation practices.

      Once a subsidy is in place, it comes to be seen as an entitlement and is politically impossible to reform.

      • Instead of punishment (i.e. taking the subsidy away) give an incentive (e.g. money for conserving water). There's probably a better incentive solution, but I'm pulling that one out of my bum.

        It's like how Bethesda games' character creation don't have any Nerfs, everything is an enhancement. But they're balanced around that. I.e. they set your character's base stats lower and let you spend points enhancing them. It's the same thing mechanically but it feels better.

        If the gov't isn't doing this it's l
    • India consistently produces a surplus of food. In fact it has so much surplus it doesn't know what to do with it https://thewire.in/agriculture... [thewire.in] One of the problems is that India is producing so much food that farmers are going broke because it has to be sold for such a low price: https://knowledge.wharton.upen... [upenn.edu]

      • by skam240 ( 789197 )

        Good for them, meanwhile their groundwater is running out and the glaciers they depend on for a major portion of their fresh water are shrinking every year.

        I mean, just go through that wiki link I posted about their water situation. That country is going to have major problems in a few decades and with it's billion plus people it's going to cause problems for everyone on earth.

      • Meanwhile, 1/2 of all deaths from hunger and related diseases happen in peaceful, Capitalist India.
  • You laugh now, but we now have the 2 largest countries in the world with huge imbalances in the male/female ratio due to selective terminations of pregnancies. Are they both going to continue importing women to continue the juggernaut or will they just have generations of frustrated poor men?

    • That's what war is for, you don't want that ire cast upon you, you want it directed towards someone else. Just ask Russia.
    • They already have a generation of frustrated poor men, many of whom are migrant workers in more wealthy countries.
  • If 2.1 is the replacement fertility rate at which population growth stops, and will be reached by 2050, and the population in 2100 will be 10.4B, then won't it be 10.4B in 2050?

    • As extreme weather events, famines, & diseases due to climate change increase, the replacement fertility rates will also increase. It's a pretty horrific calculation but this is what developed countries have been dragging us towards for the past century or so.
    • by Zocalo ( 252965 )
      Most likely two different analyses with some margin for error in each. Alternatively, maybe there is a period between 2050 and 2100 where we have more than 10.4B until some of the older generations in countries that are "top heavy" die off?

      Then again, it's Slashdot, so poor editing of TFS is definitely an option too.
      • Wrong on both counts. It is simply due to the fact that pre-replacement level cohorts necessarily grow to maturity and reproduce over a few decades.

    • If 2.1 is the replacement fertility rate at which population growth stops, and will be reached by 2050, and the population in 2100 will be 10.4B, then won't it be 10.4B in 2050?

      No, it is demographics 101 that there is a lag between when you reach replacement level, and the time it takes the population born before replacement level to grow to maturity and finish reproduction. This lag is ~30 years.(slightly less, really) India fertility has just dropped to replacement level and its population will stability by 2050 (at about 1.6 billion).

  • China is already seeing the ramifications of the long term 1 child policy; labor costs in China are already higher than most of its neighbors.

    China will always have throw-weight simply due to its size, but it has a serious economic problem for the next 20-40 years when demographics are decreasing and their economic advantage evaporates.

    • The super interesting thing about the 1-child policy is that it did not hurt their economic growth. In fact, it may have helped it. All the assets of 2 parents and 4 grandparents focused on one child. That child got the best in education and the best in health care. Looking at GDP China pulls away from India right at the height of the 1-child policy: https://www.mbacrystalball.com... [mbacrystalball.com]
    • by Hadlock ( 143607 )

      I mean sure if you want to examine that policy in a vaccum yeah. We also invented personal computers, laptops, cell phones, tablets, the price of these items all dropped by about 90%+. When the one child policy was adopted, the average household did not own a TV. The quality of life for the entire planet improved dramatically, and about 30% of the population globally moved from the country into the city.

      Other less developed countries like vietnam (and as they develop, now cambodia) have moved into t

  • Except maybe the Huns and left behind Mongols, the rest of the Europeans are all out of India.
  • by Virtucon ( 127420 ) on Tuesday July 12, 2022 @11:45AM (#62696842)

    Only 11 years ago we hit 7 billion, now 8 billion this year? I don't care what model you use, it's unsustainable. Choose your favorite sci-fi theme but famine, plague, or war will be the eventuality.

    • by labnet ( 457441 )

      Europe has peaked, Japan and China have peaked.
      Global population peaks in about 30 years then declines for the foreseeable future.

  • Should the world take a pause and limit population growth since these people consume resources and create additional warming?
    • by nasch ( 598556 )

      Depending on what you mean by limit population growth. Increasing wealth and education (as well as sex education and contraception availability) reduce population growth. So if you mean that, then yes absolutely. If you mean forcibly preventing people from having children, that is probably not going to work too well.

  • 25% in India are Poor as of today
      https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FL... [twimg.com]

"We live, in a very kooky time." -- Herb Blashtfalt

Working...