Hungary Fires Its Top Weather Officials After an Inaccurate Forecast (nytimes.com) 71
The National Meteorological Service predicted a severe storm over the weekend, prompting the government to postpone fireworks planned for a national holiday. The weather ended up being calm. The New York Times: Meteorology is sometimes referred to as the only field where the experts can be consistently wrong and still keep their jobs. But that did not seem to apply in Hungary on Monday, when the country's top two weather officials were fired after an inaccurate forecast. Their predictions of extreme weather conditions in Budapest had prompted the government to postpone fireworks for its national holiday, St. Stephen's Day, seven hours before they were scheduled to begin on Saturday. The night turned out to be calm.
On Sunday, Hungary's national meteorological service, the Orszagos Meteorologiai Szolgalat, issued an apology, saying that the weather on Saturday had been the least likely scenario based on its models. "Unfortunately, this uncertainty factor is part of our profession, we have tried to communicate this as well," the agency said on its Facebook page. By Monday, the head of the weather service and her deputy had been fired by Hungary's innovation minister, Laszlo Palkovics, a top official under Prime Minister Viktor Orban. On Tuesday, the service issued another statement on Facebook, saying it was a professional institution and not a political one. The agency said it did the best it could to prepare the forecasts, based on the date and time of the planned fireworks, using the available information to its experts. St. Stephen's Day celebrates the role of Stephen I, who became king in 1000 A.D., in the founding of the Hungarian state. "Our firm position is that despite significant decision-making pressure, the colleagues of the O.M.S.Z. performed the best of their knowledge and are not responsible for any alleged or real damage," the agency said, using an acronym for the agency.
On Sunday, Hungary's national meteorological service, the Orszagos Meteorologiai Szolgalat, issued an apology, saying that the weather on Saturday had been the least likely scenario based on its models. "Unfortunately, this uncertainty factor is part of our profession, we have tried to communicate this as well," the agency said on its Facebook page. By Monday, the head of the weather service and her deputy had been fired by Hungary's innovation minister, Laszlo Palkovics, a top official under Prime Minister Viktor Orban. On Tuesday, the service issued another statement on Facebook, saying it was a professional institution and not a political one. The agency said it did the best it could to prepare the forecasts, based on the date and time of the planned fireworks, using the available information to its experts. St. Stephen's Day celebrates the role of Stephen I, who became king in 1000 A.D., in the founding of the Hungarian state. "Our firm position is that despite significant decision-making pressure, the colleagues of the O.M.S.Z. performed the best of their knowledge and are not responsible for any alleged or real damage," the agency said, using an acronym for the agency.
They should be thankful (Score:4, Funny)
These people should be thankful they are not Italian geologists...
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WTF is an "innovation minister"...?
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WTF is an "innovation minister"...?
It's an excuse for more bureaucracy.
Re:They should be thankful (Score:5, Insightful)
The proto-dictator had several friends who needed jobs. Also the crime is not in failing to predict the weather, but in delaying a patriotic celebration. Probably the worst crime of all.
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...Probably the worst crime of all.
You're thinking of livestock theft. It's some bad business.
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Beat me to it. They made the Dear Leader look bad, so they had to go.
Amateur hour really, in real countries the Dear Leader just uses a sharpie to make storms go wherever he wants, while this Hungarian johnny-come-lately resorted to firing his weathermen instead.
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It's the guy who has the authority to fire people who have the audacity to follow the science instead of implementing the will of the government.
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Nah, his task is to innovate by coming up with new ideas like firing meteorologist when their forecasts are wrong.
Re:They should be thankful (Score:4, Informative)
WTF is an "innovation minister"...?
A position created for a crony.
It is not so innocent (Score:5, Informative)
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07440-8 [nature.com]
https://www.science.org/content/article/hungarian-academy-president-vows-keep-fighting-independence-government-takes-control [science.org]
https://sciencebusiness.net/news/hungarian-government-take-over-research-institutes-academy-sciences [sciencebusiness.net]
https://learngerman.dw.com/en/hungary-parliament-puts-academy-of-sciences-institutes-under-government-control/a-49440144 [dw.com]
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The way I remember that incident, the Italian geologists got into trouble when they categorically stated that there was not going to be an earthquake. What I can't remember is whether their statement was along the lines of "not there at that point in time", or "not there at all - earthquakes do not happen there".
Obviously one did.
In this case, there were winds coming up from the South and bringing massive rainfall. A large area centred on the Czech / German border was swamped, the rest of Germany still ha
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> The way I remember that incident ...
"minutes of the meeting show that the researchers were in fact much more circumspect, saying things such as “a major earthquake in the area is unlikely but cannot be ruled out” and “because L’Aquila is in a high-risk zone it is impossible to say with certainty that there will be no large earthquake."
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Nah, only if you're an uncle to the glorious leader.
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...except no italian geologist was imprisoned or fired
And what's the real reason? (Score:3)
Seriously, how did he piss off Putin's suppository?
Re:And what's the real reason? (Score:5, Insightful)
That is the real reason, in typical right-authoritarian fashion Orban does not understand science and even sees it as adversarial to his ideology, so getting the weather wrong on the day of a major event is plenty of reason to fire the people involved. Naturally, they'll be replaced by incompetent political cronies who will slowly run the service into the ground, Venezuelan-style. Maybe they'll hold back on forecasting bad weather on the day of a future celebration and a bunch of people will die, this will be seen as more acceptable than erring on the side of caution because a dictator needs national celebrations much more than a democratic leader does to shore up public support.
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Related joke: I just called to tell you the fire brigade is currently pumping your "partial cloudy" out of my basement.
Re: And what's the real reason? (Score:2)
But yes, we all know what weasels that results in.
Uh-huh .... (Score:4, Insightful)
Hungary Fires Its Top Weather Officials After an Inaccurate Forecast
Like all dictators Orban needs good weather for his spectacles with which he hopes to beguile the adoring masses of his loyal followers.
If it's professional, competence matters (Score:2, Interesting)
The summary acts like it was only political reasoning behind firing these people, but doesn't such a bad forecast just seven hours before seem pretty wrong even for a meteorologist?
People can be fired from professional roles because of incompetence, and it seems like here that may be what happened because even by the standards of weather forecasters the error was particular egregious.
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Being from the same area I have to agree that you can get a better guage of the weather here at this time of year by just looking at the sky than relying on a forecast., to be fair though with the way thunderstorms pop up it's kinda impossible to be accurate though.
Every day this month there's a 90% chance of rain, everyday. How long? Who knows, could be 10 minutes, could be a full hour. Could be at 1pm, 5pm, 7pm, who knows. It could pour buckets a half mile down the road but be zero where I am standing.
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wasnt talking about 90% coming from the forecast but my own observations of around 9 out of 10 days this time of year it will rain to some degree. the forecasts are actually about 20-30% most days
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It sounds like you don't understand how rain measurements and classification works. "To some degree" include a "trace" which is also known as 0 rain.
You can have drops falling from the sky, but there was still no rain from a forecasting perspective.
See also: Data quantization
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Tropical weather is notoriously hard to forecast.
Isn't Florida sub-tropical?
That may have something to do with what you describe.
Comment removed (Score:4, Informative)
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We have the same problem with people who manage a lot of money or other valuable assets, like investment bankers or CEO's. For several years the CEO of Peleton appeared to be a genius and few if any investors balked at his compensation for helping make them money. Then coronavirus ended, and the genius disappeared.
In the last couple years I have seen so many articles about the people wh
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Florida Man strikes again!
We've had numerous situations where we've been hours away from a hurricane sweeping through and making landfall, only for it to turn abruptly and shoot up the coast.
So far, so good. But then...
can get it "less than 8 hours from now" wrong, what hope does Hungary have?
You must be consuming pro-Orban news that told you to feel this way, because the first part of what you said should leave able to comprehend that the weather pattern unexpectedly changed direction at the last minute and rained another place nearby. So the forecast was a good forecast, just like the hurricane warning that says it is coming at you be ready is a good warning, even if it changed direction and went somewhere else.
The forecast was correct, the
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It's likely these weather people forecast for the whole country or something. They depend heavily on automated computer models and those are only part of the picture. Those forecasts are rarely accurate.
You need someone with local knowledge and skill to get even have a chance of accuracy. The local land and water formations can have a huge effect on weather that the computers don't account for. Also, sometimes just LOOKING at the current storm track and data will tell you something vastly different than the
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if there's even a 10% chance of "severely" bad weather and lives are at stake, it's appropriate to issue at least a warning, and I think if the only cost is postponing fireworks it's well worth it.
Re:If it's professional, competence matters (Score:5, Insightful)
Re: If it's professional, competence matters (Score:2)
Yes that's probably why they were fired, but I'm arguing how that's wrong, and in principle GP's opinion is harmful for a healthy weather forecasting service.
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Why can't we do that with politicians?
Right, because they don't have to be competent, they only have to appeal to the dimwits that vote for them.
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The summary acts like it was only political reasoning behind firing these people, but doesn't such a bad forecast just seven hours before seem pretty wrong even for a meteorologist?
What was bad about the forecast again? The weather issued warning for severe storms to hit the capital. The storms did not hit the capital but instead hit other parts of the country. That sounds like every hurricane I know where no one can predict exactly where it might land 7 hours in the future.
People can be fired from professional roles because of incompetence, and it seems like here that may be what happened because even by the standards of weather forecasters the error was particular egregious.
Please spell out what you mean by "egregious". Again the storms existed; they changed directions but did not hit the capital as predicted 7 hours earlier. See every hurricane in existence.
Re:Not a hurricane (Score:4, Insightful)
Answered your own question there champ. The capital is a pretty big area. And the fact the winds were calm in the capital indicates a pretty large shift.
Where the storms hit is about 200km (124 mi) from Budapest. You do know that is the same distance as LA to San Diego right? Just clarifying that you think 120 miles is "a pretty large shift" for a fast moving storm.
This was not a hurricane as far as I could tell from reports, .
You do know my point is that seven hours before landfall, no one guarantees where hurricane will land even though the hurricane formed a week before.
and even hurricane directions roughly seven hours later are usually pretty well predicted
Describe "well predicted" Hurricane Ida's predicted landfall path [insider.com] covered nearly the entire state of Louisiana which is only 130 miles wide.
Yes probably any other day they would not have been fired. But then what would cause an incompetent meteorologists to get fired? Maybe more of them should be fired if they are so wrong, very often...
The problem is you keep using the word "incompetent" judged by your non-professional standards. Did other meteorologists call them incompetent? No. By your logic, if I brought in some random guy of the street who declared your work incompetent, you should be fired?
Re:If it's professional, competence matters (Score:5, Insightful)
The summary acts like it was only political reasoning behind firing these people
It was.
but doesn't such a bad forecast just seven hours before seem pretty wrong even for a meteorologist?
Nope. Weather modelling is imperfect. Not only in its forecast, but also its specificity. Every country I have ever lived in had sever weather alerts issued only to be retracted, sometimes with far less than 7 hours warning.
People can be fired from professional roles because of incompetence
Indeed, but these guys were fired because they displeased an authoritarian master.
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Indeed, but these guys were fired because they displeased an authoritarian master.
Especially on that day. If they had gotten it wrong on any other day for any other city, no one would have cared. But the authoritarian master had to have his fireworks in the capital that day.
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The summary acts like it was only political reasoning behind firing these people, but doesn't such a bad forecast
You're a moron. It wasn't a bad forecast. It was an accurate forecast.
A forecast gives percentage changes of things to happen. In hindsight, we know that the storm was a real storm, and that it changed direction at the last minute, and the heavy rain fell nearby but not actually on the exact place where the fireworks show had been scheduled.
That's not an inaccurate forecast. That's just how weather works.
You're too stupid to keep pretending to be a nerd, Kenny.
Master Orban (Score:5, Insightful)
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Old Soviet Joke:
Armenian grandfather on his deathbed: "My dear kids, take good care of the Jews. Protect them and shelter them wherever they need it. Because when they're gone, guess who's next?"
Too bad he couldn't (Score:1)
borrow Trump's Sharpie.
Weather forecasts have gotten worse. (Score:1)
Back when the local TV weather man used their experience with the area they gen
Re:Weather forecasts have gotten worse. (Score:5, Insightful)
It's more that weather models fail to adapt to the changing climate. What used to work out doesn't anymore now that the weather has gone bananas.
Why was parent modded +5? (Score:2)
The modes are based on physics. The laws of physics don't change no matter how much we've screwed the climate. I suspect there are multiple reasons one of which is the models are trying to be too accurate and chaos theory being what it is that could lead them up completely the wrong path.
An old weather guy probably had a feel for his local area (though whether that would work in modern climate change is anyones guess) whereas the computer just sees numbers.
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The forecasts are modeled after experience. Models are based on how the weather behaved before and weather patterns are being used to predict those. If the patterns change, of course the forecast model fails.
Same for the old fart looking out the sea and telling the weather. He does exactly the same as a computer, he uses experience (for a computer that would be existing models and past weather records) and predicts the weather based on observation. Same problem: If the experience (and existing models) no lo
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"Models are based on how the weather behaved before"
I think you're assuming these models have more built in intelligence than they actually do. Various different models are usually run for given areas with different parameters and the weather guys select the outcome that appears most often in the runs. It could be their manual parameter tweaking is off.
Re: Why was parent modded +5? (Score:2)
Re:Why was parent modded +5? (Score:4, Insightful)
The modes are based on physics. The laws of physics don't change no matter how much we've screwed the climate.
Yes, the models are based on physics but the models are neither reality nor physics. They are an approximation based on observations. Models need to change when conditions change, but making new good models isn't something you just whip up in an afternoon since they require observations and the weather cycles can be rather long.
The GP was modded +5 Insightful because it is. Climate change has disrupted the weather patterns and made the models less accurate. Perhaps there are more factors. One can also ask why your post isn't modded lower since your comprehension about models is obviously lacking.
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The modes are based on physics.
Only if you want to be pedantic.
In fact they are based on empirical evaluation/experience.
The laws of physics don't change no matter how much we've screwed the climate.
Of course they don't change.
But you know, if you have a model that describes the expansion of a litre of water from 10C till 80C, that model won't work beyond 100C at all.
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That's exactly what happened here; the storm was a real storm, of the predicted intensity, and it rained nearby.
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> Anecdotally, I remember in the 80s the forecast was generally close to being right ...
From 1976 to 2005, 72 hour forecast went from 25 to 62 % accuracy (forecast skill score) and 36 hour forecasts went from 50 to 78% accuracy. https://www.weather.gov/about/... [weather.gov]
"The science of numerical weather prediction has made great strides in the past 30 years. Significant improvements in forecast accuracy is a modern science success story. Today’s [2009] five-day forecast is now as accurate as the three-day f
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Anecdotally, I remember in the 80s the forecast was generally close to being right.
LOL WUT! You remember very very wrong. Weather forecasting has gotten far more accurate since the 80s. Your post is the equivalent of saying "I remember in the 80s computers were faster and smaller". It's completely devoid of any reality.
The only thing we are unable to accurately predict are extreme weather events. It's the kind of thing we were unable to predict at all, let alone with any kind of accuracy back in the 80s.
Back when the local TV weather man used their experience with the area they generally got it right.
hahahahah no man. Just no. Bards have sang about how horrendous local weather forecast
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Perhaps ignorance is bliss.
Using the available information (Score:2)
How much of Hungary's weather is affected by conditions to the East? Over Ukraine. I'd venture a guess that their weather isn't the first front that they are worrying about right now.
In fact, weather over that country might be considered to be tactical information and as such, not publicized.
Much better source (Score:1)
Reporting from within the country has better coverage instead of reading what the NYTimes has to say about things. [telex.hu]
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That would hold some water if the media in Hungary was independent.
Experts? (Score:2)
Probably best outcome for these weather guys (Score:1)
I thought the usual solution... (Score:2)
...was to cut funding? The NOAA still has a website that looks like it was made in the mid-1990's and maps that look all kinds of ancient jank.
https://www.weather.gov/ [weather.gov]
Their funding/budget for making a nicer website has obviously been cut plenty. But, hey, if you want to embarrass your country and make international news in a bad PR kind of way, fire your top staff instead.
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The NOAA still has a website that looks like it was made in the mid-1990's and maps that look all kinds of ancient jank.
Most likely because NOAA does not spend their limited money on a website. NOAA and The National Weather Service focuses most of their money on collecting and distributing weather data. Whatever fancy graphics your local news station/website wants to use to depict the weather is up to them as I suspect most people do not get their weather from weather.gov directly but other sources indirectly.
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Actually, news outlets source their data from IBM. IBM purchased Weather Underground. Everyone with a personal weather tracking device, approximately 180,000 personal weather stations, gives their data for free to IBM. IBM then turns around and charges an arm and a leg for that data via their weather APIs. Media outlets pay IBM an arm and a leg for what should be free local weather data.
NOAA sources are only utilized for weather alerts. THE ALL-CAPS, "THE WORLD IS ON FIRE" VARIETY. INCOHERENT INFORMAT
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Conservative love Orban (Score:2)