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United States

US Renewable Energy Will Surge Past Coal and Nuclear by Year's End 115

Renewables are on track to generate more power than coal in the United States this year. But the question is whether they can grow fast enough to meet the country's climate goals. From a report: Supply chain constraints and trade disputes have slowed wind and solar installations, raising questions about the United States' ability to meet the emission reductions sought by the Inflation Reduction Act. The Biden administration is banking on the landmark climate law cutting emissions by 40 percent below 2005 levels by 2030. Many analysts think the United States will ultimately shake off the slowdown thanks to the Inflation Reduction Act's $369 billion in clean energy investments. But it may take time for the law's impact to be felt. Tax guidance needs to be finalized before developers begin plunking down money on new facilities, and companies now face headwinds in the form of higher interest rates and the looming threat of a recession.

The Inflation Reduction Act's emission reductions hinge on the country's ability to at least double the rate of renewable installations over the record levels observed in 2020 and 2021, said John Larsen, a partner at the Rhodium Group. "Every year we don't have capacity additions beyond the record is lost ground," he said. "It's going to be that much harder to make that up over time. There is a point where we don't get to the outcomes we projected because we blew the first few years of the transition." For now, U.S. renewable output is edging higher. Wind and solar output are up 18 percent through Nov. 20 compared to the same time last year and have grown 58 percent compared to 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The government energy tracker predicts that wind, solar and hydro will generate 22 percent of U.S. electricity by the end of this year. That is more than coal at 20 percent and nuclear at 19 percent.
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US Renewable Energy Will Surge Past Coal and Nuclear by Year's End

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  • by backslashdot ( 95548 ) on Wednesday November 23, 2022 @02:24PM (#63074762)

    But the question is whether they can grow fast enough to meet the country's climate goals.

    Seriously? Can't we take a win without a negative spin? Pushing too hard could generate backlash and swing the pendulum the other way.

    • I'm sure all those additional photons getting trapped in the lower atmosphere will stand down when they hear Americans are upset.

    • by Merk42 ( 1906718 )
      This is Slashdot, EVERYTHING has a negative spin.
    • Taking the small win you never know if you will win the war. Celebrate the battle but focus on the long game.

      My real concern though is if we can figure out economic models that work for utilities if their customers are a primary source of generation. To me, that is the ultimate game because while individual customers might be able to offset costs we do actually need to avoid shifting them to customers that can't, like renters. I think there is a good mutualistic solution out there, but don't know what it is

    • Concern about backlash is not a consideration these days. That kind of thinking leads to compromise, and few think deeply enough to find value in that anymore.

    • If wind and solar are so great, why would there be any backlash? Nobody has complained about coal plants being replaced by natural gas turbines, for example. Except for people for whom CO2 emissions are the only factor. For people that just want affordable and reliable power, it was always a win/win. If wind and solar provide that too, there will be no backlash.

      And if renewables are as cheap as people are saying they are now, rates won't go up either, and investors will make money. What's not to like?

      • "If wind and solar are so great, why would there be any backlash?" certainly wouldn't be amongst the sane
      • Nobody has complained about coal plants being replaced by natural gas turbines, for example. Except for people for whom CO2 emissions are the only factor.

        Not even them, if they have a clue about actual engineering.

        Of all the fossil fuels, coal produces the most CO2 for a given amount of heat energy output, natural gas the least. If you keep the leaks down you're FAR ahead on the "reduce greenhouse effect from waste gasses" front by replacing coal generation infrastructure with gas. (Also: Gas turbine pea

  • The only reason renewables are surging is because of insane laws against coal use and restrictions on building and repairing oil refineries.

    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      And Diablo Canyon will only stay open because of government cash, what's your point? https://hardware.slashdot.org/... [slashdot.org]

      • by atomicalgebra ( 4566883 ) on Wednesday November 23, 2022 @03:18PM (#63074968)
        You do realized that California politicians(Brown and Newsom) implemented a scheme to force PG&E to shutdown Diablo in 2024-2025. Then they changed their minds(due to reality). No subsidy would be needed if they didn't try to shutdown Diablo first.
        • And what would that "scheme" be exactly?

          You mean requiring Diablo Canyon to meet current seismic and water quality standards, which will cost $1 billion? Those dastards! How dare they require environmentally safe plant operation! That money will need to be spent to renew the licenses which expire in 2024-2025.

          The reason that PG&E gives for not spending the money to renew the licenses is that since 2010 a large portion of consumers in California have come to purchase power through local energy purchasing

          • by atomicalgebra ( 4566883 ) on Wednesday November 23, 2022 @06:13PM (#63075492)

            And what would that "scheme" be exactly?

            You mean requiring Diablo Canyon to meet current seismic and water quality standards, which will cost $1 billion?

            The scheme was requiring them to build a $14 billion dollar water cooling system in order to save a minuscule amount of fish eggs. A 30 million dollar artificial reef would accomplish that. Newsom when he was head of the State Land commission gave them an ultimatum-shutdown in 2024 or be shutdown now. Diablo already exceeds seismic and water quality standards.

            PG&E spent a lot money on the shutdown and stopped spending money on upgrades and maintenance. They also have not started the work towards renewing their NRC license because of the scheme.

            Just for the record Diablo canyon sells electricity at a much lower rate than the average costs in California. So communities that refuse to buy nuclear are fucking stupid in addition to being evil

            At this point given the reality of climate change, if you opposing nuclear energy, you are an evil scumbag.

            • "The scheme was requiring them to build a $14 billion dollar water cooling system in order to save a minuscule amount of fish eggs. " - have you got a link for that, sounds a bit mad?
    • Coal and oil get a lot of subsidies as well. Arguably as much as renewables, if not more, because they are deemed critical to US infrastructure.

    • The only reason coal and oil have been profitable for the last couple decades, if not longer, has been all the subsidies and government assistance it receives. If you removed all government aid from all energy sources, renewables would be far ahead.

      The biggest assistance coal/oil get is from socialist laws that let them shift a lot of their costs onto everyone else. In a free market, coal makes no sense, because they'd be required to cover their own costs completely on their own, without the government soci

      • That all depends on how to calculate the socialized costs. For example, it gets expensive if you include hypothesized flooding of 50% of NYC in 100 years.

    • Yeah, because continuing coal use and increasing oil use isn't short-sighted and profoundly stupid at all.

      Since when are there restrictions against repairing oil refineries? [citation needed]

  • This is far worse for the environment that burning natural gas, and much much worse than using nuclear.

  • Isn't Hydro considered 'renewable' ?

    • by gtall ( 79522 )

      Well, it would be if the U.S. wasn't under a near coast-to-coast drought. You'd better hope this isn't the new normal or you can kiss hydro-power goodbye. On the bright side, in 10 years with a bit-o-luck Florida will be under water from rising oceans.

    • Interestingly, it generally is NOT. Apparently, the wrong people would make money from it.

    • âoe Renewable Portfolio Standardsâ (RPS) for electricity generation. Since 1994, some 30 states (and hundreds of cities) have adopted binding RPSs with a majority passing such legislation since in 2004. Seven other states have adopted non-binding RPS âoegoals.â These standards call for power providers in some states to increase their use of renewable energy by as much as 33% by 2025.

      The common theme among these standards: hydroelectric power does not count as a renewable energy resource.

    • Isn't Hydro considered 'renewable' ?

      No, hydro is not considered "renewable" by many "green" energy advocates. It is not even considered "green" by many in government.

      There was a bill in Arizona that wanted to force utilities into lowering CO2 emissions, environmental impact, pollution, or something. The only energy sources that met this definition was wind and solar. The opponents fought the bill because the bill made no provision for the cost of energy. On top of that the bill did not consider hydro or nuclear as meeting this definition

  • This statement is complete bullshit: "Many analysts think the United States will ultimately shake off the slowdown thanks to the Inflation Reduction Act's $369 billion in clean energy investments"

  • U.S. utility-scale electricity generation by source, amount, and share of total in 2021
    Data as of November 2022

    Fossil Fuels: 61% (of which coal is 21.9%)
    Nuclear 18.9%
    Renewables: 19.8% (of which 6.1% is hydro which isn't going to increase much)

    https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs... [eia.gov]

    Renewables are creeping up, that's good, but it's just a part of the energy mix.

  • This will work IF we have enough storage capacity to get us through those days without enough sunshine and / or wind.
    The problem with storage capacity is we're still far too reliant on China atm for pretty much everything.

    I don't need to remind you all how problematic that will be if / when China decides to move on Taiwan and the US gets involved.
    ( Tip: Once a trade partner becomes your enemy, you can bet we're not going to be receiving goods from them for a while. . . . )

    Before we give up the ghost on Nuc

  • Major lose in hydro in next 1-3 years.

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