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The Almighty Buck

Third of World Economy To Hit Recession in 2023, IMF Head Warns (theguardian.com) 83

Posted by msmash from the sounding-the-alarm dept.
For much of the global economy, 2023 is going to be a tough year as the main engines of global growth -- the US, Europe and China -- all experience weakening activity, the head of the International Monetary Fund has warned. From a report: The new year is going to be "tougher than the year we leave behind," IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said on the CBS Sunday morning news program Face the Nation on Sunday. "Why? Because the three big economies -- the US, EU and China -- are all slowing down simultaneously," she said.

"We expect one-third of the world economy to be in recession. Even countries that are not in recession, it would feel like recession for hundreds of millions of people," she added. In October, the IMF cut its outlook for global economic growth in 2023, reflecting the continuing drag from the war in Ukraine as well as inflation pressures and the high interest rates engineered by central banks like the US Federal Reserve aimed at bringing those price pressures to heel. Georgieva said that China, the world's second-largest economy, is likely to grow at or below global growth for the first time in 40 years as Covid-19 cases surge following the dismantling of its ultra-strict zero-Covid policy. "For the first time in 40 years, China's growth in 2022 is likely to be at or below global growth," Georgieva said.
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Third of World Economy To Hit Recession in 2023, IMF Head Warns More

Third of World Economy To Hit Recession in 2023, IMF Head Warns

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  • are trying to cause one. And they're not being shy about it. [mronline.org].

    The goal is to get you fired so you'll take a new job at lower pay. The theory is that corporations will pass on the savings to consumers, and that less spending means lower prices.

    It's got nothing to do with the money supply. We gave $50 trillion to the top [time.com]. If money supply was the issue we'd raise taxes and institute a wealth tax.

    The people at the top are still so flush with cash they can buy up houses, apartments and even trailer [youtube.com]

    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by DrMrLordX ( 559371 )

      Yay Democrats! This is what modern monetary theory gets you when put into practice.

      • I addressed that. Money supply isn't the problem, giving it all to the 1% is. They're buying up all the assets and forming trusts and jacking up prices because they can.

        Taking money away from the 1% and breaking up their trusts is the only way to lower prices. Doing that will force them to sell assets which will lower prices. To prevent hyper-deflation you'll need some gov't spending targeted at working class (that's you and me) people.

        You can yell about MMT you don't understand all day long, it won

      • People will never notice their government is robbing them as long as numbers go up, they can blame "greed" or whatever and ignore the fact that something has to give when you print way more wealth coupons than there is wealth to be had, everyone sees their # of coupons go up and nobody can easily measure wealth anyway so you can hide the truth behind a spreadsheet and get everyone to cheer against the other team.

        I mean it worked great in Brazil and Zimbabwe.

      • It's amazing. People are really this stupid and think that either party that gives a fuck about them.

        I now understand that the Soviet Union could still exist if they only pretended that The Party was two different parties and people could vote for them. This year Ivan Ivanovich, in 4 years Piotr Petrovich and 4 years later we switch back again, and all the while we can do what we want to do while the plebes are doing some busywork pretending to have a say in politics.

        Fuck, if only Stalin had known.

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

        This problem goes back to Regan and Thatcher.

    • The primary goal is to have an excuse to tax the poor and middle classes and give the money directly to the rich. Workers having less bargaining power vs corporations is only a happy side effect.

      • Speak for yourself, I have plenty of bargaining power. That tends to happen when you work in a field that has negative unemployment.

        That's why it helps to understand economics. Play the job market like an economist and you win. Instead people like you and rsilvergun laugh at economics and then wonder why you feel expendable. So in response you collectively bargain, and then wonder why your employer went out of business or had to move away.

    • Volcker worship was pushed on people for decades for just this day.

      Nothing will change until more populists come to power, populists are the driver of change ... not always for the good, but always the only drivers of change.

    • Runaway inflation can destroy entire countries. They are working in preventing that. You are mixing in a completely different issue which is wealth inequality.

      • Inflation didn't run away when the Fed yoyo'd rates in the 70s, there was just stagflation.

        This time they seem intent on running the experiment whether stagpression is better than stagflation, I'm going to guess not for most people.

      • You can of course combat inflation by destroying the demand side of your economy altogether. But when there is no money left on the demand side, it doesn't matter whether the goods you offer cost 100 or 1000 bucks because nobody can even afford the 100.

    • Man, you guys are smoking the stupid. The recession is happening because economies cant keep growing forever, and happen every 10-20 years almost on schedule. And people are using the situation to replace politicians and demand better wages.

    • LOL. Sometimes I don't know who posts more crazy stupid shit. The original rsilvergun or the troll accounts.

  • Flashback to Zorg (Score:3)

    by Virtucon ( 127420 ) on Monday January 02, 2023 @12:32PM (#63174268)

    One of my all-time favorite movies "The Fifth Element" [wikipedia.org] features a sub-plot that feeds into the main character development. Zorg, the evil, ultra-wealthy industrialist is asked by the gov't to fire 500,000 his response is to fire one million [youtube.com] I think that's a great analog of the WEF et al. and world banks especially since they're never held accountable for their fuckups.

  • This one is already shaping up (Score:5, Insightful)

    by hdyoung ( 5182939 ) on Monday January 02, 2023 @12:40PM (#63174286)
    To be a thoughtful discussion about the complex interconnectedness between labor, capital, inflation, governments and the free markets, and how there are sometimes difficult trade offs between what’s good for individual workers and what’s needed to keep the entire system healthy.

    Yup. Nothing inflamatory gonna be said here.
    • that take it in the shorts for "the system". Funny how that works out...

      Also, aren't you one of those "individual workers"? Or are you just slumming it here on /.? Shouldn't you be more upset that the ruling class wants you to either get fired or work unpaid overtime "for the system"?
      • Your comment shouldnt have been labeled troll. A legit question.

        I’m a working stiff. I just have a bit of a sense of the bigger picture. We aren’t a hive species, and this analogy can be easily taken too far, but there’s some merit to the idea that we’re a bit like individual cells in a larger biological system. While each cell sort of looks out for itself and their needs can’t be ignored, the truth is that the overall health of the organism generally takes precedence.

    • ... what’s good for individual workers ...

      Government has always been more interested in protecting the bourgeois (VC/Capitalist) class: It wasn't until the 20th century, where factories provided the bulk of employment, that the plight of the labourer moved from sociopolitical theory (eg. Marxism) to a driver of civil war.

      Recession is normal and happens every 7 - 10 years: It is the realignment of investment needs and production needs across the world. A world-wide slowdown shouldn't happen and signals something is very wrong, even in the winne

  • I've been waiting for another recession so that I can afford to buy a house so for me this is great news.

  • Yes, unemployment will go up, but it's at ridiculously low levels. If it goes from 3.5 to 5%, it would technically be a recession, but would still be lower than average for the past two decades.

    If a meteorologist tells you it's going to rain, do you hide in your basement too?

    Wake me when they forecast a MAJOR recession.
  • ...becomes perceived as the truth.

    There is a strong bad news bias in the media. If you watch the news, you probably think we are going to be the last generation of humans. Politicians are addicted to attack ads (for the love of all that is Holy, demand campaign finance reform).

    The fact is, economic growth is measured by GDP, the sum total of what we produce. Between 30 and 50 years of age, we are at our peak earning and spending years. In the US, we are enjoying the benefits of a population explosions i

  • This is the same thing the IMF has been doing for decades and it has been VERY wrong except a couple of times (you know that even a broken clock tells the correct time twice a day).

    This Financial Times article [ft.com] is literally titled "IMF shows poor track record at forecasting recessions". Between 1991 and 2017, their average prediction was 5, meaning that five countires will be in recession the following year. The actual average was 26... If this is not a total failure, I don't know what would qualify as su

  • Forming macro opinions or listening to the macro or market predictions of others is a waste of time. Indeed, it is dangerous because it may blur your vision of the facts that are truly important. (When I hear TV commentators glibly opine on what the market will do next, I am reminded of Mickey Mantleâ(TM)s scathing comment : âoeYou donâ(TM)t know how easy this game is until you get into that broadcasting booth.â) --Warren Buffett (b. 1930)

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