Japan's Population Drops by Nearly 800,000 With Falls in Every Prefecture For the First Time (theguardian.com) 175
Every one of Japan's 47 prefectures posted a population drop in 2022, while the total number of Japanese people fell by nearly 800,000. The figures released by the Japan's internal affairs ministry mark two new unwelcome records for a nation sailing into uncharted demographic territory, but on a course many other countries are set to follow. From a report: Japan's prime minister has called the trend a crisis and vowed to tackle the situation. But national policies have so far failed to dent population decline, though concerted efforts by a sprinkling of small towns have had some effect.
Wednesday's new data showed deaths hit a record high of more than 1.56 million while there were just 771,000 births in Japan in 2022, the first time the number of newborns has fallen below 800,000 since records began. Even an all-time high increase in foreign residents of more than 10%, to 2.99 million, couldn't halt a slide in the total population, which has declined for 14 years in a row to 122.42 million in 2022. In January, prime minister Fumio Kishida said that addressing the birthrate was "now or never" and warned, "Our nation is on the cusp of whether it can maintain its societal functions."
Wednesday's new data showed deaths hit a record high of more than 1.56 million while there were just 771,000 births in Japan in 2022, the first time the number of newborns has fallen below 800,000 since records began. Even an all-time high increase in foreign residents of more than 10%, to 2.99 million, couldn't halt a slide in the total population, which has declined for 14 years in a row to 122.42 million in 2022. In January, prime minister Fumio Kishida said that addressing the birthrate was "now or never" and warned, "Our nation is on the cusp of whether it can maintain its societal functions."
A culture of overwork (Score:5, Insightful)
No one has time to date and are too tired to make bouncy-bouncy.
Re:A culture of overwork (Score:5, Interesting)
If you lived 100 years ago you would be too busy bringing in the turf, repairing the thatch on the roof, milking your 1 cow that you'd need a wife to cook your dinner and keep the stove lit. Nowadays that wife is happy enough spending her days in a tiny 1 bedroom apartment eating nutella from the jar while watching netflix.
Re:A culture of overwork (Score:5, Insightful)
I don't see much evidence for the "not enough work" hypothesis. Japanese culture is infamous for its overtime working culture, after all.
New tech has brought new luxuries (home television, video games, etc.) but old tech had plenty of old luxuries that people would waste their time on. Blaming the tech itself is something of a thoughtless whats-right-in-front-of-me sort of reaction.
Human nature has not changed over the past few generations, so if people prefer tech interactions over human interactions, there must be a reason beyond the mere existence of the tech. In fact, there are likely many reasons all interpermeating each other.
For example, in farming societies, more kids means more work gets done and hence more crop to sell, creating a very high incentive to breed. In todays society, more kids means much higher expenses for the family to pay for, and much less time to do anything fun (tech-related or otherwise). That alone would be enough to explain a severe drop in birth rates.
There has also been a cultural phenomenon in the developed world in which old religions, traditions, and moral codes are being thrown to the wind. Many elements of these traditional cultural institutions supported family and breeding, and have been replaced with elements that support independent happiness-seeking instead.
There has been a worldwide divorce revolution, leaving many people questioning the value of even getting married in the first place (not to mention leaving many people hesitating due to fear of the financial consequences that divorce could bring). That revolution is still in full swing, though I don't now how much it applies in japan.
Feminism has achieved its original goals of female equality in the developed world, and so many women are choosing a career-focused life rather than a child-focused life. That reduces the pool of breeders which will naturally bring birth rates down. It also has altered wages by increasing the labor supply, meaning that for most people, both members of a marriage must work full time in order to make the same income that one working member used to be able to make. So the phenomenon of the stay-at-home-parent is buried under bills that need to be paid, thus further driving people away from breeding.
And on top of all that.....wealth inequality has most of the middle class and all of the working class simply too poor to breed.
So, there are a bunch of realistic possibilities. With all these forces working against breeding, it really is no wonder that people would turn to other, more affordable, forms of self-actualization instead....and video games are well within reach.
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I don't see much evidence for the "not enough work" hypothesis. Japanese culture is infamous for its overtime working culture, after all.
New tech has brought new luxuries (home television, video games, etc.) but old tech had plenty of old luxuries that people would waste their time on. Blaming the tech itself is something of a thoughtless whats-right-in-front-of-me sort of reaction.
Human nature has not changed over the past few generations, so if people prefer tech interactions over human interactions, there must be a reason beyond the mere existence of the tech. In fact, there are likely many reasons all interpermeating each other.
Japan has seen the rise of the Herbivore men, who have largely checked out of society. Japanese women are not interested in them, for relationships, being that work and marriage are intertwined However, the herbivore men are not interested in relationships either.
Interestingly enough, the herbivore men do not appear to be unhappy at all.
There has been a worldwide divorce revolution, leaving many people questioning the value of even getting married in the first place (not to mention leaving many people hesitating due to fear of the financial consequences that divorce could bring). That revolution is still in full swing, though I don't now how much it applies in japan.
Feminism has achieved its original goals of female equality in the developed world, and so many women are choosing a career-focused life rather than a child-focused life.
Indeed. I'm not certain of the situation in Japan, but Western women were told they could have it all. A high paying career, a meek and pliable husband, and children star
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In Japan, traditionally the wife is responsible for household finances and making many important decisions. The husband is mostly there to provide income to support her and his children.
Many young people are rejecting that.
There are also issues with LGBT rights in Japan, because currently same-sex marriage is not possible. It's hard to say exactly how many people that affects, but it's more than zero.
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In Japan, traditionally the wife is responsible for household finances and making many important decisions. The husband is mostly there to provide income to support her and his children.
Many young people are rejecting that.
Yes, the concept of the man as wallet. Men have sacrificed themselves for their spouse and children for millennia, but after reaping a lot of hatred for that in modern times, they are leaning out. And they are largely happier for it. Yes, it has a certain cost, but the toxicity of modern societies for men makes the traditional standards not worth the pain.
There are also issues with LGBT rights in Japan, because currently same-sex marriage is not possible. It's hard to say exactly how many people that affects, but it's more than zero.
Interesting - I'd always assumed they were pretty liberal in that respect, but they aren't.
Hopefully Western culture can find an adjustment. Aside fro
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Japan's over-work culture is more to do with long hours and stress, than to do with the amount of work available. It used to be taboo to leave work before your boss, so the lowest ranked employees would end up having to wait for everyone from the owner down to go before they could. And then after work there would be mandatory socializing until late, usually at a bar or working men's club.
Younger people are rejecting that, along with things like needing to wear a suit, and other formalities. Not just work, b
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Oh, which of my points are in error? I am interested in being corrected.
Or is vacuous criticism all you can contribute to a conversation, mister AC?
But the poor do still breed (Score:2)
Even if they can't afford to. Most countries offer a significant safety net for children living in poverty, and the lifestyle which they enjoy is almost always far better than most people 100 years ago - think TVs, phones, fridges.
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She also doesn't like Japanese men. She think they're all living in the 1950's and says that is a quite common view among Japanese women.
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The Japanese woman Mrs. Youngone is friendly with says she has never had any desire to have children because there are too many people in the world already and that attitude is common in Japan which makes sense. It's a very crowded country. She also doesn't like Japanese men. She think they're all living in the 1950's and says that is a quite common view among Japanese women.
In general, women do not like men. At one time, they would tolerate us, but no more.
Re: A culture of overwork (Score:3)
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Japan has some issues for sure but some countries just have different costs of living and income. The place I live in the average wage is like $20k but costs are similar to most of Western Europe or North America (outside of hotspots like Bay Area, NYC, Vancouver, etc).
Japan doesn't even have particularly low fertility rates either, at 1.3/woman it's similar to Spain, Italy or Finland. A bit below Germany.
It's not just that (Score:2, Insightful)
The entire social contract is completely broken. It's time for either a new new deal (or wh
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What's the point of having the kid you're never going to see because you work too much?
In the old days, the point was to have someone supporting your old days.
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What's the point of having the kid you're never going to see because you work too much?
In the old days, the point was to have someone supporting your old days.
It's an issue now too. A lot of the women in my age group are starting to have physical ailments, and require someone to look after them after they's had their various operations. But most of my age group ladies are divorced, so they have no support structure. And some relatively simple operations end up requiring some weeks in rehab hospitals. Whereas it could have been an outpatient thing if they had a support structure at home.
Funny thing is, they lament the loss of family connection, which is somethi
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Re: It's not just that (Score:2)
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Re: It's not just that (Score:2)
In France they allow you to spread your tax allowances across your wife and children, and it seems to work to some degree helping fund a young family.
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It used to be important to have children so that when you got old they could support you. That's not so common in Japan now.
Some jobs in Japan do still pay enough for one person to support a family, meaning the other parent can be at home full time. But younger people are less interested in those jobs, which tend to quite formal and have long hours. They would rather live the low cost bachelor lifestyle.
To reverse it the government needs to be serious about reducing the cost of living, and the cost of child
Re: A culture of overwork (Score:2)
Along with industrialization the age to have children has gone up as well.
The trend is however the same in every advanced society, even in the Nordic countries where vacations and social support are plentiful. They are probably the most children and family-friendly nations on earth, and the birth rates are declining.
Modern society has changed the reasons why children are made. More opt to do less or none at all, because they can and have that choice. The evolutionary pressure is fading away. One child can s
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Along with industrialization the age to have children has gone up as well.
Yup - and now in the US the ladies are having geriatric pregnancies. It is a race in your mid 40's with IVF on frozen eggs. Of course, perimenopause is not uncommon at that age, so for some, it SOL.
Re:A culture of overwork (Score:5, Insightful)
While cultural specifics explain why Japan is in the vanguard, low birthrate in itself is nothing special anymore.
State pensions took away the need to have children to support you in the old age.
Medicine took away the need to have many children just in case so that at least of them some survive to support you.
Birth control took away the correlation between sex and reproduction.
Education gave women ambitions outside the 'kinder, küche, kirche' department.
The resulting demographic transition has swept through almost all societies in the world, and it will get everyone in the end. No one has figured out a way to turn it back. There is still great inertia here and there, but the writing is on the wall. The global population will hit a peak of 9-10B and it will be downhill from there.
Re: A culture of overwork (Score:4, Interesting)
Do we want to turn it back? Maybe the way forward is through, we find ways to minimize the disruption of a smaller human imprint.
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Do we want to turn it back? Maybe the way forward is through, we find ways to minimize the disruption of a smaller human imprint.
If the demographic distribution across ages were constant, there would be no disruption. The problem is more about the skewing of the age distribution toward older ages, so that fewer working people support more non-working people. That's the problem. The shrinking of the population is just a correlated side effect.
Part of the problem is total production, which could ostensibly be mitigated by more efficient workers, potentially with the help of machines. However, the other part of the problem is the de
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Labor is taxed on the entire salary not the savings after all the costs of living are paid
Actually, it's pretty traditional to exempt what you might consider "basic living expenses" - IE the standard deduction and personal exemption. Though the latter was reduced to $0 until 2025. It wasn't much, but it was something.
Also, we have taxes that hit all revenue - they're just called "sales taxes".
That said, I've played around with ideas for changing up our tax system some to account for this sort of stuff. While I think an "automation tax" would be a real mess to figure out, one idea I've had is
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On the planet scale, yes, definitely, a smaller population is a better population. Although we could also hugely lessen our footprint if we managed to replace our pointless consumerism and manufacture of cheap disposable crap with stuff that is built to last. Back of the napkin calculations for any random household item: quality stuff takes twice the amount of material/energy to make, but can easily have twenty times the lifespan. Thus: getting rid of consumerism - tenfold reduction of our ecological footpr
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No one anywhere has even the faintest idea how a negative growth economy would function
You are right, but it needs to happen, as the saying goes necessity is the mother of invention. We will only figure that out once we are forced to.
I think a good start, as you mention in your first paragraph is stop producing so much crap and consuming for the sake of consuming, that would lead to negative growth but we could still survive comfortably. I think the problem is a physiological one not an economic one, we all just want more.
If we don't start consuming less and always demand economic growth we j
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No one anywhere has even the faintest idea how a negative growth economy would function
You are right, but it needs to happen, as the saying goes necessity is the mother of invention.
Yeah - you have absolutely no clue, but you are willing to risk the human race because it needs to happen. So after most of the population cannot reproduce, at least tell us the number of people needed to have a viable society - or are you one of the folks who wants to return to hunter gatherer life?
Perhaps a bit of research on the failure of China's one child program would show just how difficult to impossible it is to mess with population control.
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I think you are missing the point here. A negative growth economy needs to happen if we want the planet to survive. To not make it happen is also to risk the human race.
But it does not follow from that that we need to limit population to do that. I pointed out the elimination of consumer crap as an obvious way to reduce our impact in multiples without even reducing quality of life. But all of this is a bit offtopic.
The whole point of TFA and this thread here is that the population is limiting itself whether
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I think you are missing the point here. A negative growth economy needs to happen if we want the planet to survive. To not make it happen is also to risk the human race.
But it does not follow from that that we need to limit population to do that.
What is your point? And how does one have negative growth without limiting population?
People are are not one homogeneous mass, and do not all share the same ideas. So if group A decides that by consensus, with no coercion, that they will stop procreating, group B might just decide that this is their time. to rise. So group A departs via old age, and group B now is in command.
Another thing that argues for control of reproduction is despite claims to the contrary, humans are biological creatures, and as
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State pensions took away the need to have children to support you in the old age.
No it didn't - it turned it into a tragedy of the commons issue. You're depending on other peoples children to support you in old age. That money comes from somewhere...
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You are right, at least in the case of Japan right now. But the thing is, since the economic activity of a zero-growth population is able to generate a surplus, there also exists a shrinking population that is able to support a zero surplus economy. That is, whether the situation collapses into a tragedy of the commons depends on the rate of population decrease and the economic structure of the society.
The demographic transition has been going on for two hundred years now. There is a long delay between the
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State pensions took away the need to have children to support you in the old age.
No it didn't - it turned it into a tragedy of the commons issue. You're depending on other peoples children to support you in old age. That money comes from somewhere...
One of my 4 retirement accounts is a pension. Youi might not want to hear this, but the somewhere the money came from is investments. Not a single penny of your tax money is used. My other accounts are all tied to the stock market.
So who are those children I am stealing money from?
Also, define tragedy of the commons for us - You use that phrase, I do not think you know what it means
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Not a single penny of your tax money is used
Pretty much every single developed country has a tax supported program for the elderly... Just because you have a ton of retirement savings doesn't mean everyone does. In the US that's social security - and it's funded by a payroll tax.
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Before modernity (invention of affordable high power night light) and after invention of farming, the normal day for >99% of population looked something like this:
Man
1. Wake up with the sunrise.
2. Leave to work in the field.
3. Work the field until lunch.
4. Leave the field to collectively eat lunch with the rest of the village.
5. Go back into the field.
6. Work the field until dinner.
7. Leave the field to collectively eat dinner with the rest of the village.
8. Perform maintenance and repair on private and
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No one has time to date and are too tired to make bouncy-bouncy.
There are loads of nations that have longer working hours where most people are manual labourers who have plenty of time to meet women and make babies.
I mean the US, compared to Europe is horribly overworked and yet finds time to overpopulate. Jokes aside, the problem with Japan is cultural, it's difficult for people to go out and meet for various social mores, people don't interact outside their social groups and when they do are extremely reserved, even to the point where dating someone who ticks the w
Re: A culture of overwork (Score:2)
Google "rat colony collapse" for a study on a similar effect when rats were provided everything they needed except space.
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No one has time to date and are too tired to make bouncy-bouncy.
A while back they had plenty of time and energy to make banzai-banzai, so it could be worse.
Demographics (Score:2)
Re:Demographics (Score:4, Informative)
Re:Demographics (Score:4, Interesting)
Have you ever been to Japan or are you just being racist yourself?
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Re:Demographics (Score:5, Interesting)
There are third generation immigrants in Japan who can not gain citizenship. If you are not Japanese, you can not be a citizen.
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Guess that leads to a question. Summary states that the total number of Japanese people had dropped by 800,000. Does the population drop include all residents, or only the number of Japanese citizens?
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Your statement that "If you are not Japanese, you can not be a citizen." is verifiably false.
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Okay, let's consider this. USA, ~300M people, around 1M naturalized citizens per year. 1/3rd of a percent a year.
Japan 125M, ~10k/year. A bit more than 1/3rd the population, 1/100th the naturalization.
Okay, so you can become a citizen, but in reality it's so freaking rare as to not be significant.
I mean, right in the wiki it states "application criteria are set deliberately high" Also, "historically, the bulk of those taking Japanese citizenship have not been new immigrants but rather special permanent
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"In 2015, 9,469 applications for Japanese citizenship were approved. The number of foreign residents in Japan applying to naturalize and obtain Japanese citizenship peaked in 2008 at more than 16,000, but declined to 12,442 in 2015." (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_Japan#Immigrant_integration_into_Japanese_society wikipedia but they have citations)
Your statement that "If you are not Japanese, you can not be a citizen." is verifiably false.
A peak of 16,000... That tells me that people are heavily discouraged from applying for citizenship. It's not just possible to prevent most people from simply applying, it's quite easy. Lets say you have no ancestry, instant rejection (don't bother applying), no sponsor - no application possible.
The irony will be lost on you that you demonstrated what he meant, that it is extremely, extremely difficult to attain Japanese citizenship if you're not Japanese whilst desperately trying to prove him wrong by
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If you have an interest in the subject, I recommend you read academic material on the subject and talk to people who live here. Your understanding of the situation is misinformed.
Re: Demographics (Score:2)
I'm not sure if he's half Japanese or possibly a mix of some other Asian ethnicity... but I found it extremely odd that was the first comment made to me.
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And your
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Immigration is not a solution (Score:2)
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India may not have a choice if GW continues to produce the kind of heatwaves we've seen recently. It's either migrate or roast in place.
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Just spin it as addressing climate change! (Score:2)
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Has anyone asked why? (Score:5, Insightful)
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What's preventing or discouraging all those couples
Those who are into a couple might get children, but there are just fewer and fewer of these couples. Marriage rate dropped by a factor of 5 according to https://www.nippon.com/en/japa... [nippon.com] and men justify by economic arguments.
Quoting a study:
"More than a quarter of people in their 30s--25.4 percent of women and 26.5 percent of men--said in a survey that they have no wish to get married. [...] 28.3 percent of men 50 years old and 17.8 percent of women of that age were unmarried in 2020. [...] Many men cited 'unstable employment' or 'a lack of earning power to maintain a married life'. [...] 'Now that the idea behind the Japanese family has changed, marriage is no longer seen as a safety net to guarantee a stable life.'"
https://www.asahi.com/ajw/arti... [asahi.com]
My personal idea is that their cities are densely populated at the point many have to live in micro-appartments. 21% of apartments in Tokyo have less than 20 m^2 -- 212 ft^2 https://questionjapan.com/blog... [questionjapan.com] . It does not encourage the
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So a decent middle class life has become too expensive, work doesn't pay enough, isn't stable enough, and is too uncertain to find in the first place? Yeah, those are all logical reasons to hunker down and not sign up for a 20+ year economic commitment.
I have one kid, one and done. I honestly find that USA culture is low level hostile to kids. There is no playground within walkable distance of our house (just a grassy park mostly used by dog owners). Kids playing in the street, or even just walking solo
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Wanna take your kid on a plane (or to any public space), you'll risk offending those around you if your kid acts like a kid. Kids should be welcomed as the newest important members of our society, but instead are treated as nuisances.
Actually, you're right, you can't blame a kid for behaving like a kid. Just treat the parents like nuisances, that works much better.
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They're too "smart" to have kids. They "know" they don't have "enough" money to properly raise them, they "know" that the world is not a "good enough" place to bring them into, etc., etc.
These people don't realize that the lesson from the movie "Idiocracy" is not that "stupid" people are going to take over the world, but that "smart" people are going to make themselves extinct.
If you provide basic love, care, and education for your kids, there's a good chance that they will make the most of it. Human child
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I'm sure Japanese people would like to have children just like in any other country.
Why are you sure? Most things I've read about contemporary Japanese women would indicate that they don't agree with you.
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Japan appointed the first minister in charge of raising the birth rate a couple of decades ago, and they have all been ineffective and often somewhat hapless. I recall the first one defined the problem as the "short supply of baby making machines", i.e. women of the right age who want children.
So for a very long time the government has been struggling to understand the causes, and only doing some obvious things like trying to improve access to childcare, that have limited effect.
It boils down to young peopl
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I make six figures. I live in Denver but the cost of living is so high that I being single live almost paycheck to paycheck. I cant afford kids.
You sound just like Past Me. Hello, from the future, I guess.
Step 1 - Money woes: Switch to a full remote gig, so you can keep your 6 figure salary and still leave. Once done with that, you do still need to leave. Go live in a cheap-as-f apartment in Bumshart Nebrohoma for 2 years - pay off all your debts the first year, and stack up cash the second year. Congrats, you can now afford to buy a house, like an adult! If you are worried about being bored while you grind at not being shitty at your financial lif
The Secret Solution (Score:3)
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Yup, Matt Yglesias wrote a book about this called "One Billion Americans" and he makes a compelling case.
Here's an interview: https://www.vox.com/future-per... [vox.com]
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Yes that's the solution, outsource breeding. Its good that populations are decreasing its just going to hurt a bit for a while adjusting to support a relatively larger older population, but we can deal with it by removing the insane bureaucracy that we now have.
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Yes that's the solution, outsource breeding. Its good that populations are decreasing its just going to hurt a bit for a while adjusting to support a relatively larger older population, but we can deal with it by removing the insane bureaucracy that we now have.
So that just leaves us with regular and extra crispy...,,
Cultural expectations for Japanese women (Score:5, Insightful)
A fundamental disconnect exists for Japanese women that discourages having children for the ambitious, intelligent, and highly educated. Once a woman becomes pregnant in Japan she's expected to totally drop her career to focus on being a mother and housewife to support her child and partner. Of course some do return to work and on paper support structures like maternity leave exists, but generally they're pushed heavily to leave the workforce and can face being stigmatized for returning to work. A natural result of those cultural expectations paired with increasing higher education rates for women is that more will hold off or avoid entirely having children so they can continue their careers.
Re:Cultural expectations for Japanese women (Score:4, Interesting)
Sadly, even in European countries with very good maternity/paternity policies there is still below replacement level child birth. Ecologically this is not a bad thing. Economically speaking it is causing a lot of hand wringing. Wealth without growth seems to not be an understood thing, and we are told it is not a viable thing (I'm skeptical this is true).
So while I agree that lack of support for career oriented parents is lacking badly in a lot of countries, it seems to not be the driving force for the drop in birth rate. Even with very good support it is clear that the ROI for having a kid is severely negative. Being a working parent sucks in a lot of ways kind of how matter how you slice it, and even with Nordic level safeguards it still results in a drop in pay, promotions, and job prospects for most parents. I don't mean to say we shouldn't support families (we should), but in multiple studies there has been little to no fertility improvement shown for significant increases in family support across many countries.
Objectively speaking, parenting is a hell of a lot of thankless unpaid work. One only has to have a couple DINK friends to get reminded of this. I think that once this reality sinks into our collective consciousness it is really hard to reverse low fertility as a trend so long as there is access to birth control (again, I am not advocating we get rid of access either).
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Objectively speaking, parenting is a hell of a lot of thankless unpaid work.
How is it "thankless"? Speaking as a parent, I find that the experience of parenthood is filled with joy and thanks and that joy and thanks comes from your children!!! My daughter is now at University and I've been teaching her to drive. Yesterday she passed her test (which in the UK is tough) and seeing her do so was yet another of the many many moments of joy which we have shared over the years.
I have to say that I find the great majority of the comments here mysterious. It seems that people are look
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One country that is bucking the trend in Europe is Hungary. I am not sayin anything about the other policies of its government but during the last 10 years they have managed to increase marriage rates by over 90 percent and birth rates by some 40 percent (chart here [worldbank.org])
No wonder they're so Hungry....and well, hung.
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Japan isn't unique here, all rich countries I know of have a birth rate bellow replacement and even the world rates are going down it is at 2.3, I think 2.1 is replacement rate, its definitely at least 2.
Source: https://data.worldbank.org/ind... [worldbank.org]
There are always is some social pressure for people to conform to society, and whatever Japans society expects doesn't explain why the entire world is behaving the same way.
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That might be part of it, but the largest part is the men. Marriage market is being decimated as well. To put it blunt, woman don't want traditional roles, but want traditional benefits. IE she's a modern woman, and can do what she wants, and sleep with as many people as she wants, but uh...you need to pay the bills, because it's traditional.
It runs deeper than that but that's the gist. Also in looks, 4-6s think they deserve a man who makes 200k, is over 6 ft, has no kids etc. Bottom line is, men decided w
The US and Europe should take notes (Score:2)
We are going to be in this boat in a decade too.
Demographic collapse (Score:2)
Demographic collapse is going to happen to China and others (listen to Peter Zeihan a bit)
I wonder if it can be reversed by spending piles of cash - 1 million for each child, + 50k/yr per child until they are 18 might reverse the trend.
People aren't having kids because they are expensive luxuries - if they can be significant sources of income and financial security (like they used to be before we got all 1st world) again, it might change.
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Children are expensive if you are rich, they are not if you are poor, I don't know about the US but if you don't have any money in most countries the state will support them.
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People aren't having kids because they are expensive luxuries
Children are expensive, in money, and in time. As a parent, you spend a lifetime taking care of, providing for, and protecting your children, long after they are adults. Parents give up personal time for their children, out of love. Couples vacations, about the parents, are now family vacations, about the entire family.
During the online meetings during the COVID lock-downs, I was surprised by the number of parents complaining about spending more time with their children.
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And who is going to pay for it? Everyone who doesn't have kids?
People aren't having kids because men don't want to get married because the ROI is non-existent in first world countries. I'm okay with people making whatever choices suits your life, but this is the outcome, you have to accept that as well.
Won't It Be OK? (Score:2)
I am thinking: If there's lots of housing, and fewer people, then the price of housing should go down.
If the price of housing goes down, then that would mean that living should cost less.
If living costs less, then I would think people would have more children.
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Of course they will not go extinct. As the population will grow older they will need to bring a lot of immigrants to take care of people. This will completely change the culture and people will start having children again. Population size will stabilize around some sensible number.
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Or they can bring in foreign workers and never let them gain citizenship.
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I guess it is possible to end up with small group of Japanese people running the country and bunch of immigrants doing all the work and not having voting rights, especially in a country as racist as Japan. But my guess is that they will start marrying immigrants at some point and their mixed kids will have citizenship.
We've tried nothing (Score:2)
"We're all out of ideas and we've tried nothing".
The aging population of Japan want to fix the consequences of their selfishness without losing their sense of entitlement. Italy is in the same predicament. We're seeing this dynamic in other countries but driven by other societal problems, such as wealth inequality and climate-change inaction.
Re: We've tried nothing (Score:2)
What a bunch of crap (Score:2)
> In January, prime minister Fumio Kishida said that addressing the birthrate was "now or never" and warned, "Our nation is on the cusp of whether it can maintain its societal functions."
What absolute bullshit! They aren't heading for zero population anytime soon and a lower population just means more land and resources to go around. Reducing population is a good thing. Controlling our population growth is one of those things that's supposed to separate humans from dumb animals.
Climate change, resource s
It's affecting all 1st world countries. (Score:2)
It's pretty simple. I support everyones freedom of choice, but while you're young, you may tell that guy no, you don't want him, and don't want to marry him (Let's be honest, Chad is a way better bad boy right now). That's okay, you need to make that choice for yourself. When you're both old, you might decide you want to marry that guy, but he might decide he doesn't want you anymore. That's okay too!
Welcome to the results.
Good for them! (Score:3)
Let's get this out of the way: problems with social programs, where the young support the old, are well known. Let's disregard that for the moment.
In almost every other respect, a shrinking population is a good thing. Environmental problems? Problems with jobs being increasingly automated? Housing being too expensive? These problems and many more are improved by reducing population. In particular, climate problems. Just yesterday I was watching a nature program that talked about the way people are encroaching on nature reserves in Africa. Why? Population pressure. [populationpyramid.net] In fact, population is dropping in all Western countries as well, if you disregard immigration. Again, this is a good thing. We need to get Africa under control, and the entire world population would start dropping to sustainable levels.
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I'm wondering if the Universe 25 experiments are being realized on human population.
I don't think this should be at the "wondering" stage anymore. If you get into the analysis of what those experiments showed and compare it to modernized countries right now? It's pretty point-by-point similar. Scarily similar.
On the bright side, the coming population collapse can only be a good thing for the planet. Humanity may get it in the shorts, but hey, momma erf gonna be real happy about it.
Yes, pretty much Universe 25. (Score:2)
At least in the broad sense in that contemporary society contributes multiple factors that add up to behavioral sinks that disable reproduction.
I agree with others here that this isn't a problem unique to Japan and that we can expect "1st World societies" in general to run into and stick with this dilemma.
There is literally a Babylonian confusion about what even constitutes a healthy functioning society these days. Islam is just about the last abrahamic revelation cult producing offspring at a larger scale