Japan is Preparing For a Massive Earthquake (economist.com) 15
The centenary of the Great Kanto earthquake brings angst, and lessons for the world. From a report: Every year on September 1st, Japan's ministers trek by foot to the prime minister's office to take part in a crisis simulation. Across the country, local officials and schoolchildren drill for disasters. The date marks the Great Kanto earthquake, a 7.9-magnitude tremor that struck near the capital back in 1923. The ensuing disaster killed at least 105,000 people, including around 70,000 in Tokyo itself, destroyed 370,000 homes and changed the course of Japanese history.
This year's centenary of the disaster has occasioned much commemoration -- and angst. What will happen when the next Big One hits? Seismologists cannot predict earthquakes, but their statistical models, which are based on past patterns, can estimate the likelihood of one. The city government's experts reckon there is a 70% chance of a magnitude 7 or higher quake hitting the capital within the next 30 years. Far fewer people will probably die than during the disaster in 1923, thanks to better technology and planning: the worst case foresees some 6,000 deaths in the city. But millions of lives will be upended.
Another, similarly likely scenario could be much worse. A Nankai Trough earthquake, envisaged south of Kansai, Japan's industrial heartland, could trigger a tsunami; as many as 323,000 might be killed, according to an official estimate. Japan's approach to the risks of such catastrophes offers insights for a warming world facing more frequent disasters. Quakes of this size could "challenge the survival of Japan as a state" and send economic shock waves around the globe, says Fukuwa Nobuo of Nagoya University. After the next Tokyo quake, recovering basic city functions could take weeks and rebuilding the capital could take years; direct damage alone could run to as much as $75bn. One piece of research estimates that gdp would dip by 11% following a Nankai earthquake.
This year's centenary of the disaster has occasioned much commemoration -- and angst. What will happen when the next Big One hits? Seismologists cannot predict earthquakes, but their statistical models, which are based on past patterns, can estimate the likelihood of one. The city government's experts reckon there is a 70% chance of a magnitude 7 or higher quake hitting the capital within the next 30 years. Far fewer people will probably die than during the disaster in 1923, thanks to better technology and planning: the worst case foresees some 6,000 deaths in the city. But millions of lives will be upended.
Another, similarly likely scenario could be much worse. A Nankai Trough earthquake, envisaged south of Kansai, Japan's industrial heartland, could trigger a tsunami; as many as 323,000 might be killed, according to an official estimate. Japan's approach to the risks of such catastrophes offers insights for a warming world facing more frequent disasters. Quakes of this size could "challenge the survival of Japan as a state" and send economic shock waves around the globe, says Fukuwa Nobuo of Nagoya University. After the next Tokyo quake, recovering basic city functions could take weeks and rebuilding the capital could take years; direct damage alone could run to as much as $75bn. One piece of research estimates that gdp would dip by 11% following a Nankai earthquake.
The world is planning for gotcha titles (Score:1)
Only 6000? (Score:5, Insightful)
Sorry, if a 7 earthquake hits Tokyo it is a guarantee more than 6,000 people will die. There are over 37 million people within the city limits. There is no way only 0.00016 percent of the population will die regardless of how much better your technology or planning is.
As for recovering basic functions in the city, it will take weeks just to clear the debris, no matter how organized and industrious the Japanese people may be.
Not trying to be a downer, but when dealing with natural disasters of this magnitude in densely populated areas such as Tokyo, things will not be as rosy as you'd like them to be. Things will go wrong, unexpected happenings will occur, and your best plans mean nothing to mother nature.
Re:Only 6000? (Score:4, Informative)
Sorry, if a 7 earthquake hits Tokyo it is a guarantee more than 6,000 people will die.
You have no basis for making that claim.
The 1989 Loma Prieta SF-area earthquake (6.9 magnitude) killed 63 people. The 1994 Northridge LA-area earthquake (6.7 magnitude) killed 57 people.
Those areas aren't Tokyo, but they're still densely populated.
Re: (Score:2)
Sorry, if a 7 earthquake hits Tokyo it is a guarantee more than 6,000 people will die.
You have no basis for making that claim.
The 1989 Loma Prieta SF-area earthquake (6.9 magnitude) killed 63 people. The 1994 Northridge LA-area earthquake (6.7 magnitude) killed 57 people.
Those areas aren't Tokyo, but they're still densely populated.
This [imgur.com] is a picture of Tokyo from the air. Let me know when either SF or LA is this densely populated.
Re: (Score:3)
"population density" discussions assume that buildings will collapse at the same rate in japan as they did in california. More people underneath the same footprint of collapsed buildings, ergo more fatalities. But as others point out, Japan has had higher and better building standards for longer. That should be the response to the post, not talking about clean streets.
Also, California (los angeles specifically) is only about 5 years into an effort to get older dangerous buildings torn down on something othe
Re:Only 6000? (Score:4, Informative)
Tokyo is largely earthquake proof.
Almost all buildings are built to relatively modern standards, because they replace them after a few decades in most cases.
The deaths tend to be stuff inside buildings falling over, like heavy appliances and furniture, and things that start fires.
Another big issue is emergency services finding it difficult to get around. When the Great Tohoku Earthquake hit in 2011, they found that taxis were making better time because they took back roads. Main roads were congested and people stood in them (standard advice - keep away from buildings that things can fall from).
Earthquakes don't kill people, buildings do (Score:2)
Japanese seismic engineering is well regarded. I was surprised the estimate was so high, in fact.
What scares me is a subduction zone quake in the Pacific Northwest. Seattle has tons of unreinforced masonry buildings, death traps in a major event.
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Japanese seismic engineering is well regarded. I was surprised the estimate was so high, in fact.
What scares me is a subduction zone quake in the Pacific Northwest. Seattle has tons of unreinforced masonry buildings, death traps in a major event.
On the bright side, it will probably be possible to recover the bodies and know how they died. The tsunami will probably make that impossible (for a good percentage) further south, like around portland.
https://www.newyorker.com/maga... [newyorker.com]
short factoid: the last major earthquake in the Portland area leveled homes in Japan.
Unfortunately the region seems to still be in denial, with insufficient preparation for something that appears to be ~80 years overdue. I don't know the latest with the schools there, but my u
Re: (Score:3)
Yes, in unprepared countries like Haiti, 2010 [wikipedia.org], a magnitude 7 earthquake can kill hundreds of thousands (out of around 3 million affected).
But countries know for having periodic Earthquakes adapt. On the same year, I was in Chile [wikipedia.org], and I had all services running the next day morning. Only a handful of buildings affected. Only 500 deaths, from over 15 million affected. And surprise, that
Re: (Score:3, Funny)
Earthquakes and floods in Japan are frightening. (Score:4, Informative)
Floods and mudslides kill six in Japan as scientists warn extreme rainfall events will get worse [cnn.com].
Maybe it isn't a good idea to live there.
Average 5.6 feet of rain in Japan every year (Score:5, Informative)
Quoting: "Japan, located in the eastern end of Monsoon Asia, one of the world's rainy regions, has an average annual rainfall of 1718 mm..."
1718 millimeters is 67.6 inches, 5.6 feet.
The Historic Earthquake (Score:2)