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Earth

UN Warns World Will Miss Climate Targets Unless Fossil Fuels Phased Out (theguardian.com) 224

Governments are failing to cut greenhouse gas emissions fast enough to meet the goals of the Paris agreement and to stave off climate disaster, a major report by the UN has found. From a report: Meeting the goals will require "phasing out all unabated fossil fuels," the report says, in an acknowledgment that some oil-producing countries may find hard to take. The need to phase out fossil fuels has not been explicitly adopted by the UN before, under successive rounds of climate talks, and language over "phasing out" or "phasing down" fossil fuels has caused controversy at the annual UN climate talks.

There is a "rapidly narrowing window" for governments to move faster, according to the report, as global greenhouse gas emissions must peak by 2025 at the latest, and be rapidly reduced from there, to limit temperature rises to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. Emissions are still rising, however, and there is a gap of 20 to 23 gigatonnes of CO2 between the cuts needed by 2030 to limit global temperatures to 1.5C and the world's current emissions trajectory. The report, which was expected next week but was published hurriedly in draft by the UN on Friday, will form the basis of the first "global stocktake" under the 2015 Paris agreement. That process is meant to track countries' efforts to meet the goals of the treaty.

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UN Warns World Will Miss Climate Targets Unless Fossil Fuels Phased Out

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  • Oh I know the answer to this one "Looks like we are missing targets." Either your navigation was off or your bomb was to small. More bombers or bigger bombs.
    • by gweihir ( 88907 )

      We will get to that. Don't worry. Will safe absolutely nothing at that time though.

    • by CEC-P ( 10248912 ) on Friday September 08, 2023 @03:59PM (#63833506)
      You're right. Instead of telling Cheryl to stop using styrofoam cups and unplug her 0.0001 W passive phone charger, we should be stopping China from building the world's least efficient coal plants. They're completely targeting the wrong things on purpose.
      • "They're completely targeting the wrong things on purpose."

        Correct. When a government impounds the Icon of the Seas, moors it to a pier or beaches it forever and converts it to housing for the homeless/refugees, then call me. I'm not freezing in the dark so that idle upper class can party on that monstrosity.

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]

      • China builds coal plants to power factories that produce Cheryl's styrofoam cups and all the other shit she is throwing away. Cheryl should take her head out her ass and take a good look around.
  • by DrMrLordX ( 559371 ) on Friday September 08, 2023 @02:31PM (#63833260)

    Our emissions have been in decline since 2007.

    https://www.macrotrends.net/co... [macrotrends.net]

    That is, if you ever care, which apparently applies to this UN panel.

    • Our emissions have been in decline since 2007.

      https://www.macrotrends.net/co... [macrotrends.net]

      That is, if you ever care, which apparently applies to this UN panel.

      That's admirable. Truly.

      But. There had to be a but. Those statistics also mean that it'll be about 50 more years until the US stops making the world a shittier place every year.

      Yes, I totally get it that a} zero emissions is a nonsensical goal, b} I'm a horrible, polluting monkey myself, c} many/most other countries are either not getting better as quickly or not getting better at all. It's just... before we authorize a parade, it's important to take a step back and recognize "polluting less" is bet

      • by farble1670 ( 803356 ) on Friday September 08, 2023 @07:21PM (#63833848)

        50 more years until the US stops making the world a shittier place every year.

        https://www.worldometers.info/... [worldometers.info]
        Ouch. China emits 2x the US.

        https://www.statista.com/stati... [statista.com].
        USA is staying almost even with population growth, compared to China, and others that have exploded.

        Nothing the US can do (alone) will stop climate change. Not even close. This is China and India's ball game. Your problem is going to be finding any bleeding hearts in these merging countries that give a hoot about your cause.

        • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

          The US emits 15.32t/person, China emits 7.44t/person.

          So the US is more than twice as bad as China. What's worse is that China is due to peak in the next few years, at less than half the US' current emissions, let alone where the US peaked at over 23t/person.

          Be very thankful that China didn't decide to adopt a US lifestyle and economy, because if it had done we would be absolutely screwed.

          • What's worse is that China is due to peak in the next few years

            Ok.

            In September 2020, President Xi Jinping announced that the People’s Republic of China will “aim to have CO2 emissions peak before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060”

            So they SAY they WANT TO peak by 2030.
            https://www.iea.org/reports/an... [iea.org]

            Going to be pretty hard to achieve when you're fighting a war with Taiwan (which they also said they definitely will do before 2030). Blowing up shit tends to not be carbon neutral. Did China also pledge to fight a carbon neutral war?

            Meanwhile, their rate of decrease in emissions is 7x less than the US:
            https://www.worldometers.info/... [worldometers.info]

            The US emits 15.32t/person, China emits 7.44t/person.

            And Qatar emits ~3x the US per capita. See what I did their? The correct response to that would be t

            • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

              They are 5 years ahead of their goal when you look at the curve. They should peak by 2025-26, unless something major happens.

      • Those statistics also mean that it'll be about 50 more years until the US stops making the world a shittier place every year.

        Wow. Are you clueless or what.

        • Those statistics also mean that it'll be about 50 more years until the US stops making the world a shittier place every year.

          Wow. Are you clueless or what.

          As it happens, the answer is "what".

    • Our emissions are headed down. Great.
      Pat on a back? Nope. Many states can do much better, esp red states.
      Likewise, the GD dems continue to fuck things up badly, while speaking about AGW.
      Many issues are from BOTH political parties and NOT from AGW.

      Skip that pat. We have a LOT of work to do. That includes re-building our nuclear industry, putting in intelligent regulations and taxes, as opposed to screaming about cooktops while ignoring 75% of the emissions, or cutting O&G exploration while doing rel
  • by Geoffrey.landis ( 926948 ) on Friday September 08, 2023 @02:38PM (#63833284) Homepage

    A reminder that there's no particular science behind picking 1.5 C as the do-not-exceed target. There's no abrupt catastrophe that occurs at 1.5 C but not 1.4 C. It's just a simple number to set for a goal.

    If we exceed 1.5 C of warming, the effects will be slightly more extreme than if we stayed at 1.4 C of warming, but not as extreme as 1.6 C or 1.7 C.

    (there probably are tipping points in warming, where feedback effects kick in... but they are not at neat even values of average warming.)

    • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

      We have absolutely no clue what the feedback loops all are, or how they function, or how they relate to each-other. We could have triggered one ten years ago which will inevitably lead to an ice age in 200 years and we would have no idea. This is why, imo, we need not only massive amounts of research into this but also the ability to put carbon, sulfur, and water into or take it out of the atmosphere.
      • We have a lot of clues. We know almost all feedback loops are positive. Less ice => warmer => even less ice. Melting permafrost => More Methane => More Melting Permafrost. Reducing emissions is a failed approach, humans are still adding more greenhouse gases every year, we haven't even flattened the curve yet. What we need to be researching is safe and effective ways to block sunlight in the stratosphere. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]
      • Maybe we don't but we also have no clue what will happen if the fossil fuels world we built and all the goodies it has brought is forceably taken away in the name of hitting some arbitrary climate targets. fossil fuels are the reason we can travel the world and have uninterruptible electricity supply, etc
    • "The treaty was informed by a fact-finding report which concluded that, even global warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial average, over an extended, decades-long period, would lead to high risks for “some regions and vulnerable ecosystems.” The recommendation then, was to set the 1.5 degrees Celsius limit as a “defense line” — if the world can keep below this line, it potentially could avoid the more extreme and irreversible climate effects that would occur wit
    • A reminder that there's no particular science behind picking 1.5 C as the do-not-exceed target ... (there probably are tipping points in warming, where feedback effects kick in... but they are not at neat even values of average warming.)

      To be fair, 1.5C is neither neat (it's a fraction) or even (it's odd).

    • by gweihir ( 88907 ) on Friday September 08, 2023 @03:44PM (#63833438)

      It is called risk-management. Something you obviously have never heard of. At 1.5C (which we already will exceed significantly and nothing can be done about that anymore), the risk of too many trigger-points getting reached is still relatively low and collapse of civilization is relatively unlikely.

      • Re: (Score:2, Interesting)

        It is called risk-management. Something you obviously have never heard of. At 1.5C (which we already will exceed significantly

        Not yet, but the way things are going it's very likely that we will. [bbc.com]

        and nothing can be done about that anymore), the risk of too many trigger-points getting reached is still relatively low and collapse of civilization is relatively unlikely.

        There's nothing special about 1.5 C. You could say the same about 1.6 C, or 1.7 C, or 1.8 C.

      • "The Eemian climate is believed to have been warmer than the current Holocene.[8][9] Changes in the Earth's orbital parameters from today (greater obliquity and eccentricity, and perihelion), known as Milankovitch cycles, probably led to greater seasonal temperature variations in the Northern Hemisphere.[citation needed] During the northern summer, temperatures in the Arctic region were about 2-4 C higher than in 2011.[10] The warmest peak of the Eemian was around 125,000 years ago, when forests reached as

      • It is called risk-management.

        Also, there's no risk at all to increasing fuel prices where average Joe and Jan can't get to work, or increasing energy prices so they can't afford to heat their homes. Not a problem though, just buy a Tesla solar battery system for your home for $25,000, and an electric car for $35,000. Right?

        One thing is for sure, the rich will be fine regardless. They will live in low-pollution suburbs and can afford price increases. The left needs to figure out if they want to help the underclass, or save the climate.

        • by gweihir ( 88907 )

          If the average joe dies (or rather his children) as a result of climate change, you would think that would be more of a concern than fuel prices. But I guess the average joe does not understand long-term changes at all.

          • If the average joe dies (or rather his children) as a result of climate change, you would think that would be more of a concern than fuel prices. But I guess the average joe does not understand long-term changes at all.

            Keep on telling underprivileged of the world that you know better than for them and their families. Much easier to virtual signal to folks that won't be much affected by the decision either way.

    • by haruchai ( 17472 )

      1.5C was chosen both because it was believed to be avoidable & because it's supposed to be *probably* much safer than the 2.0 threshold that almost certain to mean long term catastrophic impact.
      The truth is that even the 1.0 - 1.1 deg C warming to date has been hugely impacting

    • For a long time the goal was 2 degrees, but that changed to 1.5 when the consequences of 2 degrees was found to be serious: "in some regions and vulnerable ecosystems, high risks are projected even for warming above 1.5 C". With just 1.5 degrees it is expected that 70%-90% of coral reefs will die. However the 2015 Paris Agreement just limits the average temperature only to 2 degrees, but aims for 1.5.
    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      The cost of climate change, and the risk of serious conflicts, goes up exponentially with temperature. 1.5C is the point at which we are fucked but it might not lead to massive catastrophise where hundreds of millions of people migrate and we experience massive reduction in quality of life.

      I think a lot of people are hoping that they die before it gets really bad, and it becomes someone else's problem.

  • need more nuclear power!

    • by Z80a ( 971949 )

      It's a bit too late now, as takes decades to build those.
      The money probably would be better spent boosting the power storage research and improving the power lines, so we don't have LOT of losses by just carrying the power around.

      • Comment removed (Score:5, Insightful)

        by account_deleted ( 4530225 ) on Friday September 08, 2023 @03:55PM (#63833488)
        Comment removed based on user account deletion
      • No reason to not start today then, our kids will thank us.

        We can also do all those things as well, it's just a matter of political will.

        Also line losses are "only" around 5% which is nothing to sneeze at with the scale we're talking about but still, I will take some line losses for an abundance of nuclear backed energy.

      • It's a bit too late now, as takes decades to build those.

        "Nuclear reactors connected to the grid in 2022 had a median construction time of 89 months or almost 7.5 years"
        https://www.statista.com/stati... [statista.com]

        Failure to use nuclear, now or in 8 years, will just mean more usage of coal.

      • Thankfully, you are very wrong.
        Even now, NuScale, Natrium and likely Helion will all have reactor/generator running before 2030 and likely sooner.
        In addition, they will be able to scale quickly.
        • by Z80a ( 971949 )

          Hopefully i'm wrong on this one.
          Other than build time (that seems to be smaller than i was thinking as pointed out by the other posters), its just a great tech and don't actively kills a shitton of people with air pollution like coal does.

    • No, we should wait for fusion power; It's only 10 years away!
    • need more nuclear power!

      We also need more fracking! Let's aggressively replace coal with natural gas. You can get that done in months, not decades.

      • In fact, the smart thing is to move coal plants to Nat gas, BUT with thermal salt storage AND a hookup for a 2nd heat source. IOW, make it so that fission or fusion can be added slowly to the power plant and just as important, the power plant will be backed up by nat gas, while switching over. This way, utility and customer can keep electricity, low costs and continued dropping of emissions.
  • by haruchai ( 17472 ) on Friday September 08, 2023 @03:05PM (#63833342)

    It's been clear to me for about 15-20 years that we would fail, after reading George Monbiot's "Heat: How to Stop the Planet from Burning".

  • by jacks smirking reven ( 909048 ) on Friday September 08, 2023 @03:49PM (#63833456)

    Link in The Guardian article is broken

    https://unfccc.int/documents/6... [unfccc.int]

    • If you're buying an electric vehicle in China, you're really only moving your CO2 emissions from a tailpipe to a smokestack at a coal plant.

      But, hey... keep fighting the good fight. Maybe the rest of the world will catch up to you someday.

      • There's always one idiot who just doesn't understand it.

        But hey.. keep talking shit and doing nothing. Maybe one of your children will forgive you.
  • by MacMann ( 7518492 ) on Friday September 08, 2023 @07:32PM (#63833860)

    I keep hearing people give excuses on how more nuclear power plants won't solve global warming. I don't know about that, we could at least try. I have a sneaking suspicion that the real reason so many people oppose nuclear power is because if we start building nuclear power plants then there's no more global warming fears to hold over the heads of others. Once we clear that hurdle on getting new nuclear power plants built then any more complaints on global warming is just permission to build another nuclear power plant. The threat of global warming loses all power after that.

    Oh, you want to complain that we don't know what to do with the radioactive waste from nuclear power? First, solving the waste problem is trivial compared to global warming. Second, we solved the waste problem, it's the same brainless banshees that scream about global warming that are screaming about a waste problem that doesn't exist.

    You believe nuclear power is dangerous? How dangerous is global warming? Take your pick because there's no solving global warming without nuclear power.

    I'll believe global warming is a real threat when I see nuclear power plants getting built by the dozens. This is all sounding like bullshit since people have been trying to scare people into believing that carbon dioxide emissions will kill us all for decades. How many more decades of CO2 emissions have to happen before we start to use the one energy source we know of that has the lowest CO2 emissions and highest safety record of any energy source humanity has created?

    What a bunch of bullshit. If this is not bullshit then stop making excuses on why we can't build more nuclear power plants and solve the problem already. If you don't want nuclear power then you must want global warming, or at least the threat or global warming. We have the solution, we only lack the will to use it.

    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      Let's say we go all in on nuclear, and do everything we can to make it happen.

      Remove all the regulations, you don't even need a containment building now. Cancel all environmental impact assessments, you can build them anywhere and destroy whatever river you need to. Ban lawsuits entirely. Mass produce the reactors, strip mine the fuel. For disposal we will just dig a big hole and lob the spent fuel in it.

      Let's say that gets the cost down to about 30% of what it is today, so around £10-11 billion

      • If you claim that nuclear power is not a solution then my claim is global warming is not a problem. Do you understand where I'm coming from yet?

        I'm not alone in thinking this, we have people all over the world getting real confused on how global warming is some big scary monster that's going to kill us all if we don't do something to keep it away but when nuclear power is mentioned then everyone comes up with excuses on why we shouldn't consider that. So, which is the bigger monster, nuclear power or glob

        • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

          If you insist that it has to be nuclear, if we don't demonstrate that renewables are a viable alternative that maintains or even improves our lives, developing nations are going to use fossil fuels.

  • The reality of global warming response: It is short, watch it all. https://www.youtube.com/watch?... [youtube.com]
  • by WindBourne ( 631190 ) on Friday September 08, 2023 @10:37PM (#63834168) Journal
    Why? Because governments in China and Undeveloped nations have no intentions of killing FF.

    If the west, hell, the world, REALLY REALLY REALLY wants to solve this, then there is only one way to do this:
    Force businesses to switch to clean parts/services. How? BY applying a slowly increasing tax rate locally consumed goods/services based on where the WORST part/sub-service comes from.
    And at this time, the easiest and fastest way is to simply worry about direction of emissions. Below a threshold, down, stable, or up.
    If below a threshold, then no tax on their parts/goods/services.
    If several years down, then no tax.
    If last year down, and 2 years ago stable, then 25% of the tax rate.
    If last year down/2 years ago up, OR stable for 2 years, then 50% of the tax rate.
    If last year up/2 years ago stable, then 75% of the tax rate.
    If last 2 years were up, then 100% of the tax rate.

    This way, if the worst assembly/part/sub-services/etc comes from a nation that has been 2 years up, then the increasing tax rate will be applied 100%.
    This will encourage companies to put pressure on governments to clean up and drop emissions, OR they will simply shift away.

    We have already seen that nearly all nations are making promises to lower their emissions, but really, not that many are. Until ALL NATIONS drop their emissions until below a threshold (and remain below it), then things will only climb and continue to get worse.
    And no, the solution is NOT to stop drilling O&G. The solution is to STOP BURNING FF. If
    • Force businesses to switch to clean parts/services. How? BY applying a slowly increasing tax rate locally consumed goods/services based on where the WORST part/sub-service comes from.

      This is not a problem we can solve with taxes.

      Do you believe we burn fossil fuels to because the taxes aren't high enough? You can raise taxes on fossil fuels all you like but it's not going to move the needle unless there's an alternative somewhere. You think batteries and solar panels are going to solve this? Hardly. After 100 years of relying on diesel powered machines we can't just turn that off and not see people die of cold and hunger. What is likely the fastest path from fossil fuel is nuclear p

  • Those two are easily the biggest polluters in the world, no contest. Clean up these two countries and the world's air and water quality will become a lot better.

  • I'm not giving up my car while the Kardashians fly across the country for a cappuccino. I'll give up my gas vehicles when you ban private jets. Until then, F off.
  • I've been hearing about this "UN" a lot lately. Is that some religion I haven't heard about before? Maybe like some branch of Zoroastrianism, or one of those Amazon religions, like the cargo cult?

  • The core of our planet is iron. The human borne problem is pollution and over consumption of the sea as a resource.

Every nonzero finite dimensional inner product space has an orthonormal basis. It makes sense, when you don't think about it.

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