Los Angeles is Using AI To Predict Who Might Become Homeless and Help Before They Do (npr.org) 112
Los Angeles is housing more people than ever, and building lots more low-income housing, yet it can't keep pace with this ever-rising number of people who end up in cars, tents and shelters. "It's a bucket with a hole in it, so we've got to do something ... to fill that hole," says Dana Vanderford, who helps lead the department's Homelessness Prevention unit. With that goal, the pilot program is using artificial intelligence to predict who's most likely to land on the streets, so the county can step in to offer help before that happens. From a report: The program tracks data from seven county agencies, including emergency room visits, crisis care for mental health, substance abuse disorder diagnosis, arrests and sign-ups for public benefits like food aid. Then, using machine learning, it comes up with a list of people considered most at-risk for losing their homes. Vanderford says these people aren't part of any other prevention programs. "We have clients who have understandable mistrust of systems," she says. They've "experienced generational trauma. Our clients are extremely unlikely to reach out for help." Instead, 16 case managers divide up the lists and reach out to the people on them, sending letters and cold calling.
Comment removed (Score:4, Interesting)
Re:How's that work? (Score:4, Insightful)
Hi we think you're addicted to drugs or mentally ill. Can we make you not addicted to drugs or mentally ill?
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"Here, have some money so you stop taking drugs."
That mostly works (Score:5, Insightful)
But it is absolutely cheaper to be a good person than a bad person and it cost a lot less to take care of people before they're on the streets. Of course a huge part of our economy is based on threatening people with homelessness so that we can control their behavior in a way that lowers inflation without enforcing antitrust law so there's that too.... The Brits call it austerity
Re: That mostly works (Score:4)
I rode the bus to work for about a month and one of the homeless guys I met had a bunch of toes amputated because he ironically lost them while working. When his insurance ran out he got switched on to Medi-Cal, which wouldn't pay for his prescription, but it would pay for something inferior that he got hooked on.
California would like for it to cover more medications, but the feds wouldn't, so it doesn't. If they would leave us alone to run our own health care program this story would be a lot less common, but instead they want to be in charge.
40% of homeless work full time (Score:4)
Nobody ever seems to ask how the McDonald's employees working out of Pacific Heights pay rent. Answer is, they don't.
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there's some evidience it's as high as 60%. I suspect that's because when you look at the high cost cities like NY & San Fran the number creeps up.
Nobody ever seems to ask how the McDonald's employees working out of Pacific Heights pay rent. Answer is, they don't.
Corporations like McD's will often be paying loading in locations like NYC where there's no affordable housing nearby, but someone working in a McD's in Pacific Heights (Central San Francisco for the uninitiated) probably has a 90 min commute minimum (other side of the bay, minimum). However your point stands (and it's a good point)
It's the less reputable ones that will be trying to hire in high rent locations for minimum wage or less where you can't live within 3 hours on min wage. The lucky ones will l
That doesn't work anymore (Score:2)
So you've got mass homelessness among people with full time jobs. There aren't even rat holes anymore, because why would I rent a rat hole to 5+ people that are going to cause problems when I can rent it to some tech worker for half his $100k/hr salary?
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You do need a few other services but a huge part of what drives people to drug use is coping. Give them some mental health services and make it feel like they're not completely boxed in in doomed and that solves the drug problem. The Nordic countries have done this and it works great. Of course they don't have sizable minority populations that people love to hate so.....
But it is absolutely cheaper to be a good person than a bad person and it cost a lot less to take care of people before they're on the streets. Of course a huge part of our economy is based on threatening people with homelessness so that we can control their behaviour in a way that lowers inflation without enforcing antitrust law so there's that too.... The Brits call it austerity
The Nordic countries do have minorities that some love to hate, the nations as a whole just have the good sense to be ashamed of such things.
Drug problems are, as you've eluded to, are often about escape. Even in the UK with a relatively low amount of homelessness (talking about proper homeless, not just "rough sleepers" although they shouldn't be ignored) there are a lot of poor people who take drugs, particularly heroin to escape their lives. A large part of the problem is driven by the illegality and
It's smaller numbers (Score:2)
Look at trans panic. They're 1% of the population tops, and that number assumes they feel safe being out. Sure, the right wing got a lot of mileage out of it in gerrymandered distric
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Sure you can. Maybe you could give them a reason to not be, i.e. somehow make their life not suck enough that even the prospect of a figment of imagination of some enjoyment, knowing that death is right behind it, doesn't sound better than this fucked up life.
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somehow make their life not suck
Do tell. What is the secret to happiness?
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Drugs.
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Have you tried asking the people?
I know what makes me happy, but that makes me happy. I'm not that full of myself to assume that this would be the same for everyone else.
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Maybe the engineer went the simple route and just mailed prisoners who were due for parole.
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ClippyGPT [reddit.com]
Re:How's that work? (Score:5, Insightful)
Well, things usually spiral out of control.
Take something simple - say, a parking ticket. You accumulate a few of them - you cannot pay it, of course, you're barely putting food on the table. Then boom, on day, your car is impounded. And thus, the spiral begins.
Without your car, you barely make it to work - and you get fired. You really can't pay your tickets now, and you still can barely feed yourself, but now you can't make rent. You get kicked out onto the streets, where basically you still can't feed yourself or your family and now what? If you're lucky, someone puts you out of your misery and gives you some drugs.And now, the spiral ends, for you're addicted, unhirable, mentally ill (drugs do that to your brain), and living on the streets, pretty much permanently.
Those who live paycheque to paycheque are likely just slightly above water. There are measures like the $1000 emergency fund that are used to tell how close people are to completely losing control of their lives. And sadly, there is a huge number of people who are in this dangerous zone - doesn't make much to upset the applecart.
And you'll find that's how the story begins for most homeless to end up on the streets drug addicted and mentally compromised. Sometimes with family (kids, etc) in tow.
Re: How's that work? (Score:2)
So LA county has a homeless population problem, and they had an idea to fix it by making sure anyone currently in a home can afford to remain in the home through financial assistance and other measures. That's great, if you have a home but you just can't afford it, but doesn't it prevent the currently homeless from moving into what would have been a vacant low-income home?
It will ensure that the truely homeless will remain homeless while the nearly homeless (people in homes they can't afford), stay in their
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doesn't it prevent the currently homeless from moving into what would have been a vacant low-income home?
I hope I misunderstood, because it sounds like you're suggesting letting some people become homeless so that other homeless people can move into their (former) home.
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“In accordance with ordinance 605.12b, you have been assigned room 140352 in building 16, resident quant C. This assignment provides you with suitable housing and nourishment to sustain your life. Please board the bus.”
Off to Terrafoam with you!
Re: How's that work? (Score:3, Insightful)
Exactly! Nobody in the world has ever been homeless because their landlord raised the rent 300% because "market rates" and there definitely aren't companies that have bought the majority of available homes and then colluded to decide what market rates should be. It's clearly people who came to this country with the express intention of living in the street.
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Or the fact that foreign holding companies are buying homes just to take them out of the market to jack prices up. For example, any house sold to Zillow when they were buying will never see a homeowner again.
With supply squeezed, and regulators just not interested in doing anything about it, of course, there will be homeless people.
Never see an homeowner again (Score:2)
Why not? Has zillow converted them to rentals? Have they torn them down? Are they holding them empty until somebody meets some outrageous price?
Because on that list, you have them still providing housing, being utterly stupid, and something like a new CEO could easily see prices reduced to sell.
It's something I'd like to read up on.
Supply in San Francisco is generally constrained because building is extremely difficult and expensive. The regulatory hurdles can be extreme, with people needing to hire fac
Re: Yes Market Rates (Score:2)
Somehow the vast majority of "home owners" (mortgage holders) find a way to afford their home - most likely because they either signed up for a fixed-rate mortgage when rates were low and chose to NOT refinance when the rates went up, or they bought their house with the higher interest rates already in-place.
Now, if you bought a house with an adjustable rate mortgage, you should have known this could happen and planned accordingly. The failure of a home buyer to understand how adjustable rate mortgages work
Re: Yes Market Rates (Score:4, Insightful)
Somehow the vast majority of "home owners" (mortgage holders) find a way to afford their home - most likely because they either signed up for a fixed-rate mortgage when rates were low and chose to NOT refinance when the rates went up, or they bought their house with the higher interest rates already in-place.
Cop 1: UID checks out, call off the Golden Alert boys. We found the boomer.
/. yelling at youngins over not being born into more favorable situations, and how absolutely nothing has changed since the 1960s when He bought His house for a fraction of His monthly pay from His stable job, with an education that meant something, with politicians that listen to them and implement their policies instead of fucking over the entire world, while walking 15 miles in the snow both ways.....
His Family: Where was he?
Cop 2: He was over at
should have known
Cop 3: Yep, that's Him. There He goes victim blaming again.....
The failure of a home buyer to understand how adjustable rate mortgages work
Cop 1: ...and assuming that everyone else is beneath Him...
doesn't make them a victim or render them blameless for their decision
His Family: ...and assuming that mass ignorance on a national level is solely a personal issue. We apologize for His behavior....
Maybe they can get Uncle Joe to pay off their mortgage because they can't afford it...
Cop 2: Well, if anything He will be paying for it, glad he understands at least that much....
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The failure of a home buyer to understand how adjustable rate mortgages work doesn't make them a victim or render them blameless for their decision.
Individually, sure, I'm big on education and self reliance. However, our schools often don't teach financial management, and when they do, it's often like the Dave Ramsey approach, which is seriously low to middle class finance management. Hint: Strict avoidance of debt is a poor/middle class thing. Rich people LOVE debt.
Then you get that a lot of home mortgage people lied like hell to get people to take those loans because they got bigger commissions for them.
Your post is U.S. only (Score:1)
Somehow the vast majority of "home owners" (mortgage holders) find a way to afford their home
Yes, for some people that "way" was an ARM.
Now, if you bought a house with an adjustable rate mortgage,
I like how you totally ignore that in Canada that is not even an option... the mortgages there reprice every five years.
The failure of a home buyer to understand how adjustable rate mortgages work doesn't make them a victim or render them blameless for their decision.
I think it's in poor taste to mortgage-shame p
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That's the most ignorant comment I've seen in at least two slashdot articles.
Since you don't now, nor have you ever owned a home, here's a clue: when you buy a home with a fixed mortgage (that's assuming you're not stupid enough to buy a balloon mortgage), THE INTEREST REMAINS FIXED FOR THE LIFE OF THE MORTGAGE, all 30 years of it.
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here's a clue: when you buy a home with a fixed mortgage
Guess you don't know anything about Canada, which I mentioned, eh?
Or about ARMs, which lots of people use to reduce payments (at first), and a few years ago MANY people used because who would think interest rates could possibly rise quickly?
In short, it appears you don't understand the financial world, either as it was or as it currently is.
I'll let you have the last response, I suggest you use it to grovel in shame.
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Someone is going to come along and kick our ass eventually. That is, if we don't just fucking suicide out all by ourselves.
The pathetic irony of this statement, is those taking their own lives in alarming numbers are those who currently stand or have stood to defend a once great nation.
We don't even protect our own, who sacrifice everything to protect our own.
Re:Unwanted Children In A Greed Based Society (Score:4, Interesting)
We have plenty of rednecks in the South who are already armed and waiting for some someone to show up on the coast so they can shoot them. What we don't have is young folks with the yearning to learn, innovate and improve what we still do have. The ones that do get a chance are so poisoned by the education system that we just keep doing the same shit.
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Tim McVeigh and his ilk are from the 'militia' movement. So they're domestic terrorists; fuck them and fuck any traitorous sympathizers or apologists or enable
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So that whole 'open borders' thing is causing depression? Never mind the fact that it doesn't exist, and is merely a far right extremist lie meant to enrage the gullible, the uneducated, and the foolish. Hmmm ... maybe being lied to, believing said lies, and things not getting better because it was all a lie is why people are depressed or disaffected.
Open borders isn't a myth made up by some right wing nut job. It is a real problem, and it seems the only gullible idiot in this conversation is you.
What the heck are you talking about? (Score:2)
This has got to be a troll post. You're mixing disdain for "rednecks" (who were Union men BTW, they got those rednecks on picket lines, look it up) with a misc "Kids these days suck" comment and a crack at the education system. It's a bizarre mix of left wing doomerism and right wing anti-education talking points. It feels like it's crafte
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It can't be just how I feel without all that premeditated bullshit? I don't do right wing-left wing crap. I only do right and wrong. Nice try though.
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The ones that do get a chance are so poisoned by the education system that we just keep doing the same shit.
Do you think that is a random outcome or a calculated outcome?
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Calculated by proxy.
Re: Unwanted Children In A Greed Based Society (Score:2)
When was the last time US soldiers defended the nation? Answer, WWII. Then there were Japanese forces off the coast of California.
Everything since then has been a proxy war in a foreign country.
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Artillery, missiles, bombs, drones etc is how wars are fought now days.
A cartel or seven, would likely disagree.
Intimidation alone, can be one hell of a weapon.
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When was the last time US soldiers defended the nation? Answer, WWII. Then there were Japanese forces off the coast of California.
Everything since then has been a proxy war in a foreign country.
We can quibble about the people who deployed to Afghanistan, but the F-15 and F-16 drivers who scrambled on Sept 11, 2001 were "defending the nation" in a very direct, rather than indirect sense. In the case of the F-16 drivers, they were unarmed and planning to ram if UAL93 had made it to DC.
I'd also say the Navy and Air Force guys in the Florida Straits in October 1962 were as well. Maj. Rudolph Anderson was KIA October 27 and awarded the Air Force Cross. He left behind three children.
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When was the last time US soldiers defended the nation? Answer, WWII. Then there were Japanese forces off the coast of California.
Everything since then has been a proxy war in a foreign country.
Everything after WWII changed with the creation of NATO, when a planet was forced to recognize what the new definition of 'border' meant.
We live with that persistent 'justification' to fight wars now.
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Wages have stagnated since the mid 1980s. The result is homelessness, the opioid crisis, crumbling infrastructure, the rise of extreme groups, rising gun violence, the the Trump cult - the
Dup (Score:2)
/. just ran a story on how AI completely and utterly fails to predict crime:
https://yro.slashdot.org/story... [slashdot.org]
How is this any different?
Re:Dup (Score:5, Insightful)
How is this any different?
You can't really reliably predict if someone is gonna knock over a 7-11, but things like long term unemployment / developing a substance abuse problem / falling behind on the rent, are pretty reliable indications that someone is likely to end up homeless.
You can absolutely predict criminal intent (Score:1)
So somebody who works on those databases pointed out how they work and it's really just following social networks. John commits a crime so you investigate Jane or possible crimes.
The problem with that of course is how our justice system works. The police find a bag of pot on Janes nightstand. So they threatened to charge her with dealing because John was arrested for dealing. She takes a plea deal beca
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The example you gave is just guilt by association. Cops have been playing that game since way before computers played any part in it.
The point of it is (Score:2)
None of this makes you any safer but it does make the stats look good.
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Go watch some of the John Oliver videos about our criminal Justice system they're highly amusing until you really start to think about them. But the jokes keep you from thinking about them which is why he's allowed to go on TV and say that stuff
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How are you going to get all that highly confidential data? Arrest data are public. Once someone is arrested on a serious drug offense, it doesn't take AI to know that he/she is going to lose their house. Other than police records, nothing you list is easy to get. And it shouldn't be easy to get without a warrant.
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"if we give everyone UBI how do we ensure shit still gets done and we don't all starve,"
As long as there's work that needs to be done, there are people who will be wiling to do the work for the right salary. And since UBI alone likely won't be enough to cover the cost of goods and services once the increased labor costs get passed along, you'll need to have a job, too.
Ultimately, UBI is slightly better than being broke for the unemployed, and just a glorified scheme to create inflation for those of us who do work. It's a scheme that keeps being proposed by people who don't understand the con
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Our economic system is premised on the notion that there absolutely must be a large pool of losers to support the small pool of winners. If a large enough number of losers rise to the almost-winner level, then the base requirements for survival are raised so the almost-winner level becomes the new loser level.
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The homelessness AI predicts the danger of homelessness based on a specific person's access of public service (based on the fine summary). So if you spent 3 weeks in the hospital (or presumably jail) and used a food bank a week after you were released, it seems likely that you will have trouble paying rent and are therefore in danger of homelessness. With the low number of variables, it seems more like BCS than AI. But if three Regexs in a trench coat keep people off the street, I'm in favor of it.
The crim
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How is this any different?
Probability of someone becoming homeless / becoming a criminal -> can be calculated
Day and location where the person will set up a tent / commit a crime -> cannot be predicted
Re: Dup (Score:2)
Because the social services collect enough data about people to make these determinations. When you apply for medical coverage you are asked about your tax filing status, income, expenses, who else lives in your home, and a whole host of other data. Similar for SNAP but there they want to know all about your student status instead of your tax household. They want to know far more for TANF. They have a ton of data to figure you out with.
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Not a bad idea (Score:2)
It's not like future crime police are tracking you down before you commit a murder, but a good way to make an educated guess and reach out to those that likely need help. Prevention is almost always less expensive than the cure. It won't be 100% effective, but it's a good place to start.
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Medical and mental health records? (Score:2)
The solution don't need AI (Score:2)
Before anyone shouts, "But... but... but... Inflation!" I challenge them to name one city where they've raised the minimum wage & it hasn't been beneficial for most, if not all workers, & the vast majority businesses, apart from the expected complaining, grandstanding, being deliberately & unnecessarily mean to their workers at first, have been fine. The only businesses that close as a result of havi
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Chicago.
The minimum wage was elevated.
The price of EVERYTHING ELSE went up.
No, one single item didn't go up enough to consume the raise.
But, altogether, the spend out for a regular person is now HIGHER than it was BEFORE the raise.
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Seattle was the poster child for a $15 minimum wage. When it looked like the new city law was going to pass, rents went up in anticipation of the tenants upcoming liquidity.
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BINGO!
Now how many self-deluded people will claim "Never happened."?
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Just a thought.... (Score:2)
How much did LA spend on this AI program? Then, if they took that money and instead spent it on a rent-assistance program, how many fewer homeless people would there be?
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I'm just wondering what the 'AI' does... it seems like a simple ranking algorithm is all that is required.
Oh be serious! (Score:2, Troll)
LA doesn't give a shit.
Nor does California.
All they care about is how much money they can skim off into their politicians' pockets.
If millions of people die from neglect, they could not possibly care less.
They'll just lie about how it's someone ELSE'S fault.
Forget predicting who will become homeless (Score:4, Insightful)
How about just treating mental illness before they become homeless.
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WTF do you think we are, Norway?
Thank god (Score:2)
We still won't do jack shit about you losing your home, but we can tell you with pinpoint accuracy when you're going to, ain't that something!
The motor is not attached to the boat (Score:1)
Why don't they put the resources into helping existing homeless rather than potential? Did they do a cost-benefit analysis saying prevention is cheaper?
10,000 Homeless in Santa Clara County, Alone (Score:3)
This sounds like a plotline from Silicon Valley... (Score:2)
Who needs AI? (Score:2)
It seems like basic math would be predictive. If you have access to wage, headcount, and address data you can kind of readily calculate who is paying too high a percentage of income in rent/mortgage. Add in any sort of medical debt collections data, and voila! you get a pretty accurate picture of who is headed for eviction soon, no AI required.
It seems the AI charlatans are trying to sell their wares into all sorts of places to monetize replacement of common sense with a black box that comes with a hefty
Just ask? (Score:2)
Almost like the whole point is to make sure $9 of every 10 for the homeless goes to politically connecte
New Hustle Coming (Score:2)
All these posts about mortgages (Score:2)
Not one about, oh, the CEO of a major company deciding to offshore most of the work.
Or the ongoing vile scum of the Waltons, who do everything they can to prevent employees from having enough hours to qualify for healthcare.
Or the folks with a sudden major medical bill.
easy (Score:2)
It's easy, just track meth sales.
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I'd rather people like you were rounded up in such fashion. Anyone who clearly cares so much about their fellow humans and their rights deserves a nice vacation. We can even use your home to help house the homeless while you're gone.
Get rid of our shittiest people and house the homeless at the same time. Now that's what I call a win-win plan.
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I disagree with him and with you but neither of you should be punished for your speech.
That sort of thinking is sure to get you canceled in today's society.
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Woosh...
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Hahaha, at least I dont try to hide what I'm saying by posting under AC.
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Do you have direct evidence of this, or are you merely echoing a talking head?