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The Almighty Buck News

Global Economy Set For Its Worst Half Decade of Growth in 30 Years, World Bank Says (cnbc.com) 154

The global economy is on course to record its worst half decade of growth in 30 years, according to the World Bank. From a report: Global growth is forecast to slow for the third year in a row in 2024, dipping to 2.4% from 2.6% in 2023, the organization said in its latest "Global Economic Prospects" report released Tuesday. Growth is then expected to rise marginally to 2.7% in 2025, though acceleration over the five-year period will remain almost three-quarters of a percentage point below the average rate of the 2010s.

And despite the global economy proving resilient in the face of recessionary risks in 2023, increased geopolitical tensions will present fresh near-term challenges, the organization said, leaving most economies set to grow more slowly in 2024 and 2025 than they did in the previous decade. "You have a war in Eastern Europe, the Russian invasion of Ukraine. You have a serious conflict in the Middle East. Escalation of these conflicts could have significant implications for energy prices that could have impacts on inflation as well as on economic growth," Ayhan Kose, the World Bank's deputy chief economist and director of the Prospects Group, told CNBC's Silvia Amaro. The bank warned that without a "major course correction," the 2020s will go down as "a decade of wasted opportunity."

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Global Economy Set For Its Worst Half Decade of Growth in 30 Years, World Bank Says

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  • by zenlessyank ( 748553 ) on Tuesday January 09, 2024 @11:03AM (#64144247)

    Just sit back and watch a movie on your phone while you wait.

    • Remember, don't change anything about your lifestyle, otherwise the terrists win.

      • Ahh....

        There's always a way to make money no matter what's happening in the world and the markets.

        You just gotta find what it is...

    • As stated in Capital in the Twenty-First Century [wikipedia.org] by Thomas Piketty, you get fabulous growth if you first destruct your economy. That is why there was so much financial growth after the second world war.

      But to strive for "economic" (really financial) growth per se is off course nonsense. You get real economic growth if your population grows: you get more companies, more employees and more bosses automatically. But population growth is slowing down around the world.

  • by Joe_Dragon ( 2206452 ) on Tuesday January 09, 2024 @11:04AM (#64144255)

    we need more work from home if fuel prices get to high and if the PHB really wants in the office give us an gas card.

    • PHB has a Tesla and doesn't care that you spend $100 a week on gas.

      • PHB has a Tesla and doesn't care that you spend $100 a week on gas.

        If you're spending $5,200 annually on gas then you're going to spend $52,000 over ten, so you might as well just buy an EV. I bought a 2015 Nissan LEAF back in August 2014 which costs me about $1.75 / 100km to drive - when charging at the reduced "overnight" rate. With 138,000km I'm about $2,415 +/- in electricity costs for a car which cost me just over $30k CDN after taxes and rebates; though I'm actually less than that because my employer offers free charging, making half my daily trip essentially "free

        • My commute would take a Leaf to 50% charge just commuting back and forth to work (119km round trip). Getting it back to 100% overnight would be tight, takes about 6-7 hours on an upgraded 240V installation. Such a small EV is not ideal for me, but may be perfect for someone in a more urban environment.

          For my gas cars the one with poor gas mileage costs me $75/week to commute. The hybrid costs $30/week. (paying $4.80/gal). Electricity is about $0.30/kWh (it's complicated by different rates at different usage

          • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

            That's a very old Leaf. I don't know about where you are, but in the UK you can get a used one that easily covers that distance every day for around 10k Euro now. Even new ones are I think less than the GP paid for theirs, if I did the conversion right.

            There are also new MG, Renault and VW cars in that range, and used Kia and Hyundais. The latter will do 300 miles on a charge, minimum 250 in reality bad weather at high speed.

        • If you're spending $5,200 annually on gas then you're going to spend $52,000 over ten, so you might as well just buy an EV. I bought a 2015 Nissan LEAF back in August 2014 which costs me about $1.75 / 100km to drive - when charging at the reduced "overnight" rate. With 138,000km I'm about $2,415 +/- in electricity costs for a car which cost me just over $30k CDN after taxes and rebates; though I'm actually less than that because my employer offers free charging, making half my daily trip essentially "free".

    • PHBs should just die or finally take the "want fries with that" jobs they're qualified for.

    • we need more work from home if fuel prices get to high and if the PHB really wants in the office give us an gas card.

      Translation: PHB needs people to apply for jobs that require a gas card to justify their job description.

      Perhaps now is the time for the PHB to face the reality of their overall worth, which has been known for a long damn time now.

    • ...give us an gas card.

      I'd rather they just pay better. I don't want to end up in another situation like US healthcare where access to a basic need—health, movement, etc.—is tied to employment.

  • by Anonymous Coward
    "You will own nothing and be happy." (wringing palms together evil-villain style)
    • by Z80a ( 971949 )

      It's not some evil genius coming with an evil plan because EVIL.
      It's more of people hyping "what if everything was uber!" without thinking on the consequences or implementation of it.
      Sometimes you can get railroaded into an idea that self reinforces in your mind at a point you need someone from a different angle to point out to you the massive flaws of the idea you can't see.

  • Marginal (Score:5, Insightful)

    by ZipNada ( 10152669 ) on Tuesday January 09, 2024 @11:12AM (#64144295)

    "dipping to 2.4% from 2.6% in 2023"
    "expected to rise marginally to 2.7% in 2025"
    "three-quarters of a percentage point below the average rate of the 2010s"

    This doesn't seem particularly calamitous to me.

    • >>"three-quarters of a percentage point below the average rate of the 2010s"
      >>This doesn't seem particularly calamitous to me.

      Yes, especially since the 2010s were a decade when we were trying to kick-start the economy after the 2008 financial crisis with things like quantitative easing and ridiculously low interest rates. It's time to go back to a more stable growth rate.

      • >ridiculously low interest rates.

        Now there's an actual conspiracy. Aiming for zero inflation and zero interest means it's practical to build a vault and hoard your money rather than invest it. That works out really well for rich people, not so much for poor people. The middle class gets the idea they can be rich and blow lots of money on 'investments' that are mostly the rich milking them of their savings.

        • Re:Marginal (Score:4, Insightful)

          by MIPSPro ( 10156657 ) on Tuesday January 09, 2024 @12:42PM (#64144607)

          Aiming for zero inflation and zero interest means it's practical to build a vault and hoard your money rather than invest it.

          Low interest rates punish those who save money. Savings are the healthy way to power investment and growth. So, if you have have low interest rates, you're encouraging ponzi-style policies that only work when the economy is growing due to cheap loans, setting yourself up a catastrophe later on. Low borrowing costs which decrease the cost of using leverage are the heroin keeping these rich wall-street junkies high and powering new deals based on huge debts. Notice what happens to equities whenever rates are falling? Balloon Bull markets [investopedia.com] happen and what goes up must come down, even in spite of government efforts to keep the party going as long as possible.

          What you don't seem to understand is that inflation hurts the rich a helluva lot less than regular people who spend significant amounts on food, shelter, and fuel (which the government either "adjusts" or ignores [investopedia.com] in their statistics). Rich people spend tiny-fractions of their wealth on those things and earn income from capital gains which are taxed at less than half what most people pay in income taxes. Stocks tend to track or beat inflation, so they are just fine when inflation rises, because so does their net worth stored mostly in stocks and real estate. The people who get screwed are the middle class and poor folks.

          Please cure your misconception that rich people want to horde their wealth in a safe filled with gold. That is pure fantasy. They own stock [businessinsider.com] with a side of real estate and they aren't worried about inflation at all since both assets resist inflation easily. It's the little guy who the government wants to come smash and rob of any cash or assets he might hold. That's precisely what FDR did when he confiscated gold and silver [wikipedia.org] from all private owners in the 1930's. He wasn't going after stock brokers, he was going after farmers who lost faith in the banking system and didn't want to loan their savings to crooks who had just lost it and caused over 2600 bank failures [history.com] across the country.

          • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

            The problem is that housing is so expensive, and such a basic necessity, that cheap loans were the only thing allowing people to get on the ladder.

            Not being able to own a home is going to be a big problem when those generations retire. Or rather, we will have 75 year olds dying at the checkout because it's the only way to afford the rent.

            • cheap loans were the only thing allowing people to get on the ladder.

              That's true. Lower interest rates drive down the overall cost of buying and thus the all-important monthly payment. I'll further add to the this line of reasoning by pointing out that builders can more easily finance large home building projects when rates are low. Real estate holders/owners are also more interested in selling when rates are low because they can soak up some of the discount on the loan by inflating the value of the asset in the first place. This means they can sell more volume and at higher

              • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

                I've come to the conclusion that the only way to build decent quality, affordable homes, in nice areas with local facilities, is to have local government do it. Private house builders can complete if they like, but councils need to be building at least 500k homes a year in the UK.

                • is to have local government do it.

                  Well, that's a Communist idea tried extensively by the Soviets. The Soviets espoused [rbth.com] that building housing for it's citizens was going to be one of the great accomplishments of Leninism and the Soviet ideals.

                  What really happened were huge housing shortages that went on for decades. Changes in the post-war Soviet economy resulted in rapid urbanization which they were unprepared for. Central planning slowed their ability to build the right type of housing the places were it was needed most. The Soviet focus

                  • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

                    I was thinking of the socialist model used to great effect in the UK.

                    After WW2, there was a housing shortage and a need to rebuild. Churchill lost the election to our greatest ever Prime Minister, Clement Attlee. A socialist, he not only gave us the National Health Service and pensions, but also built a lot of houses and associated infrastructure.

                    It continued to work pretty well, until the 80s when Thatcher put a stop to it and forced the sale of the public housing stock. Prices rocketed, quality went into

                    • Personally, I'm completely unconvinced that socialist housing models work at all. The UK example is not without it's own problems. Rather than having some political itch scratched (socialists never saw a problem more government won't fix), I'd rather government policy around zoning get adjusted. Governments make a million restrictions on building, tax every step of the process of building, buying, and selling, then act like government is the solution to the problems they made for everyone.
    • by CAIMLAS ( 41445 )

      You're trusting the government's numbers - that's part of the problem.

      The reality, much like unemployment and poverty numbers, are always far worse.

      Expect an era of global austerity - particularly considering everyone is up to their eyes in debt, and there's an unlikely horizon for higher interest rates.

      • by Junta ( 36770 )

        Well then you need an article and data to try to describe that far worse situation.

        Here a claim is being put forth based on official numbers. A rebuttal was put forth that "well those numbers don't seem that scary". It is silly then to say "oh well the official numbers should be ignored anyway", that undermines the initial work since it was based on the official numbers.

      • particularly considering everyone is up to their eyes in debt

        Not me, haven't been for ages.

        OH wait, I do have a small monthly house payment, but don't owe that much on the house and have enough cash in savings that if I had to, I could immediately pay off.

        But bank loan is low interest rate and my savings accounts are paying more than that so I'm leaving my money in savings.

    • "dipping to 2.4% from 2.6% in 2023" "expected to rise marginally to 2.7% in 2025" "three-quarters of a percentage point below the average rate of the 2010s"

      This doesn't seem particularly calamitous to me.

      Especially when you consider the margin of statistical error fine print to be 1% or more...not that anyone is paying attention to any layer below clickbait marketing...

    • This doesn't seem particularly calamitous to me.

      No one said it was. You just freaked out at a headline. Don't do that.

    • but... but... infinite exponential growth is mandatory!

      Consume MOAR!

    • Of course it doesn't seem so bad. Very small changes in some very small numbers; however, what you fail to realize is that slight percentage shift means 30 million people will likely starve to death. Not so bad as long as it isn't you.

      • Show evidence that "30 million people will likely starve to death" as a result of growth in the next 5 years at "three-quarters of a percentage point below the average rate of the 2010s".

  • Not a conspiracy guy but I can share that I think this is more planned than most people think or care to think. This is elites pushing a big reset button which will make the gaps between rich and poor even more exadurated. All the migration is planned because it's being funded by outside organizations for DEI and ESG and its starting to backfire. The global COVID lockdown was the start and you can bet money, there's another lockdown coming interrupting election cycles and more.
    • Who are these outside organizations doing the funding? What do they gain once their goals are achieved?

  • Obama! I'm certainly not voting for Hunter Biden in this next election.

  • growth is good? (Score:5, Insightful)

    by cats-paw ( 34890 ) on Tuesday January 09, 2024 @11:32AM (#64144401) Homepage

    We still think that cancer is an appropriate economic model.


    It counts the destruction of the redwood and the loss of our natural wonder in chaotic sprawl. It counts napalm and counts nuclear warheads and armored cars for the police to fight the riots in our cities. It counts Whitman's rifle and Speck's knife, and the television programs which glorify violence in order to sell toys to our children. Yet the gross national product does not allow for the health of our children, the quality of their education or the joy of their play. It does not include the beauty of our poetry or the strength of our marriages, the intelligence of our public debate or the integrity of our public officials. It measures neither our wit nor our courage, neither our wisdom nor our learning, neither our compassion nor our devotion to our country, it measures everything in short, except that which makes life worthwhile. And it can tell us everything about America except why we are proud that we are Americans.

    RFK, Mar 1968

    • Hear, hear.

      As leaders go, and as people who wanted better for our country, John and Robert Kennedy were incredible. Given how bluntly they were in support of healthcare expansion, civil rights and against open war, it is difficult to see their assassinations as anything except a conspiracy by entrenched, domestic forces afraid of rapid societal change for the working and lower class.

      If no one has watched JFK speak other than a few quotes, this is an amazing video of an inspirational and intelligent leader.

      • John and Robert Kennedy were incredible.

        And hey...I believe they BOTH got to fuck Marylin Monroe (while they were married)...so, props to the brothers.

    • As nice as that counter number sounds, lack of growth is indeed bad as it disenfranchises citizens and makes us poorer. That is unless you get population growth to zero (which it is not).

    • Pretty much requires some form of socialism and until the older generation that was raised on anti-communist propaganda ages out of voting you can't even begin to have a discussion of models that aren't built on 3 to 5% growth.

      And you have to be careful even when trying to switch over to a different model because in the cases of China and Russia we saw what happens when the revolution fails and turns into just another kind of oligarchy.

      I suspect when the baby boomers are too old to vote anymore you'
  • Good! (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Going_Digital ( 1485615 ) on Tuesday January 09, 2024 @11:36AM (#64144421)
    It is about time countries stopped using economic growth as a measure of success. Continual growth is not sustainable and we instead need to look at ways of achieving a stable low debt economy. Economic growth relies on an ever growing population to consume the products and services being sold, but people are having fewer children, something that is good for the planet. We need to accept this and concentrate on finding ways to maintain our standard of living with fewer people.
    • by CAIMLAS ( 41445 )

      I'd suggest challenging your assumption that fewer children is good for the planet.

      What do you think happens with an age-heavy population, exactly? It leads to crumbling infrastructure, decreases in services, an inability to service debt, and economic decline. You're seeing this worldwide, right now. Increasing poverty will be rampant.

      Sounds like a perfect way to fuck up the environment, as impoverished countries are the most destructive.

      • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

        by MIPSPro ( 10156657 )

        I'd suggest challenging your assumption that fewer children is good for the planet.

        I'd suggest you find better treatment for dementia or brush up on your second-grade arithmetic. Look around. Do you see humans improving things or consuming mad resources and making them worse? Now, try to follow me here, imagine fewer people. That means less pollution, less CO2, more resources divided among fewer individuals, more housing, more available food, higher value on human lives, etc..

        BTW, you just got pwned by an AC. I'd think twice before debating an informed human being because I haven't even

    • Continual growth is not sustainable

      Yes and no. No economic growth means you're saying that a country can't develop technology to make processes more efficient and that a larger population only achieves the same as a smaller one. Both of course are absurd. Economic growth at least in line with population growth is important to *maintain* the basic life we have, and that's without getting into any funding of future debt (which I agree is stupid).

      • Economic growth at least in line with population growth is important to *maintain* the basic life we have

        The problem here is that the government cannot be sure that future generations will be larger. We already see places like Japan where birth rates are nowhere near replacement (2.1 kids/woman) levels. Sure, there are lots of folks hand-wringing about the bleak future of their social-net ponzi schemes, as well there should be. Those are schemes that cease to work with a shrinking economy or a shrinking population. Since both are possible, it's foolish to design and operate such a system without the expectatio

    • Here's the top 5 most prosperous countries [ourworldindata.org] that have undergone degrowth in the last half century: Djibouti, Afghanistan, Zimbabwe, Haiti, Sierra Leone. The most prosperous countries which have managed less than 2X growth are Ghana and Syria. Which country is the proven model of "success without economic growth" which countries of the world should emulate?

      Continual growth is not sustainable and we instead need to look at ways of achieving a stable low debt economy.

      If it's true that 'continual growth is not sustainable' then that was equally true ten thousand years ago. Should human progress have stopped there? If no

  • ...when you print money to pay for wars and programs we don't need. Then when it causes inflation, they act like raising interest rates is the fix. That's what you do when business to too successful and is causing inflation and you need to slow it down by making expansion and investment harder. It was a recipe for disaster and they damn well knew it but they just had to get the money to the industrial war machine and crooked politicians that funnel it back to their election funds.
  • by MpVpRb ( 1423381 ) on Tuesday January 09, 2024 @11:43AM (#64144445)

    Otherwise intelligent economists and business leaders refuse to see this obvious fact. It amazes me that modern economic theory depends on endless growth, which is impossible.
    We need steady-state sustainability

    • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

      by iggymanz ( 596061 )

      Nonsense, population is still growing and people are still being lifted out of poverty into middle class.

      Peak of population curve is some decades away.

      • Nonsense, population is still growing and people are still being lifted out of poverty into middle class.

        You are counting Natives being converted into renters as people being lifted out of poverty. Fuck that noise. The people who are already part of the system are being systematically pushed down into a system of slavery without a direct owner.

  • That's a much better question. This is a parasitic aspect of the economy. It's one that you have no real choice to spend your money on yet it always increases and always demands more funding. Couple that with the rampant growth of the subscription business model and the outlook is pretty bleak.

  • Nowhere in the article is there any mention of how well past World Bank predictions have done.

    • by Junta ( 36770 )

      When it comes to finance, the more trusted an economic institute is, the more accurate their projection. Even if they had inadquate or poor "data", economic projections are generally self-fulfilling.

      Business leaders encounter a projection telling them "the economy is going to go down". So they freeze hiring and layoff 10%. Investors read the projection and pull funding from companies to stuff under the proverbial mattress to weather the forecasted market decline. Consumers thinking about their spending

  • ... no more mean tweets, so there's that I guess?

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