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United States

Climate Change Reversing Gains In Air Quality Across the US, Study Finds (axios.com) 121

An anonymous reader quotes a report from Axios: After decades of progress in the U.S. toward cleaner air, climate change-related events will cause a steady deterioration through 2054. New research from the nonprofit First Street Foundation is part of a hyperlocal air quality model showing shifts down to the property level between 2024 and 2054. Its conclusions flow from methods contained in three peer-reviewed studies published by the coauthors. The report itself is not peer reviewed, however. The study finds that climate change is increasing the prevalence of two of the air pollutants most harmful to human health: particulate matter, commonly referred to as PM2.5, and tropospheric ozone.

PM2.5 are tiny particles emitted by vehicles, power plants, wildfires and other sources. They can get lodged in people's lungs and enter the bloodstream, causing or exacerbating numerous health problems. Through the use of air quality observations and the development of the new model, First Street's researchers found that the West will be particularly hard hit by increasing amounts of PM2.5 emissions, as wildfires become more frequent and severe. [...] Future projections estimate a continued increase in PM2.5 levels by nearly 10% over the next 30 years, said Jeremy Porter, head of climate implications at First Street, tells Axios in an interview. This would "completely" erase air quality gains made in the last two decades, he said.

Porter says that whereas pollutants from cars and factors could be targeted by regulations over the past few decades (and the EPA is proposing tightening some further), climate-related deterioration in air quality is a much tougher problem to solve. Instead of national regulations, climate action requires global emissions cuts, and even sharp declines in greenhouse gas emissions may not alter trend lines for the next few decades. The population exposed to "dangerous" days on the air quality index is likely to grow to 11.2 million between 2024 and 2054, an increase of about 13%. A 27% gain in the population exposed to "hazardous" (or maroon) days on the AQI is likely between the present climate and 30 years from now, the report finds. Porter said that while 83 million people are exposed to at least one "unhealthy" (red) day, this is likely to grow to over 125 million during the next three decades. "The climate penalty, associated with the rapidly increasing levels of air pollution, is perhaps the clearest signal we've seen regarding the direct impact climate change is having on our environment," Porter told Axios via email.

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Climate Change Reversing Gains In Air Quality Across the US, Study Finds

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  • Don't be shy (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Z80a ( 971949 ) on Monday February 12, 2024 @10:35PM (#64235632)

    Just spill the beans about the millions that die yearly due air pollution already.
    Global warming is bad, but there's already pretty horrible consequences for all the pollution right now.

    • by Futurepower(R) ( 558542 ) on Monday February 12, 2024 @10:59PM (#64235658) Homepage
      Air pollution from fossil fuels kills 5 million people a year [theguardian.com]

      Quote: "Of more than 8 million deaths worldwide from outdoor air pollution, 61% linked to fossil fuels, finds study"
    • Around 90 people a year die from nuclear reactors. Usually from job site injuries, but sometimes radiation or poisoning. Scary stuff.
      I think we should stick with good clean and green hydroelectric power, water is perfectly safe and natural. If the dam breaks, just swim, everyone knows how to swim.
      (data from a random article I found in a search. they didn't cite references)

      A report in 2009 said, "Climate change kills about 315,000 people a year through hunger, sickness and weather disasters, and the annual d

      • by Z80a ( 971949 )

        Deathless anything is impossible, but when coal and oil kill as many people while working normally as if half of the nuclear reactors went full hiroshima per year. it's a pretty good idea to consider less lethal options unless you want people to die on purpose.

        • Nuclear power is profoundly, incredibly safe by any comparative standard. Brushing your teeth is probably more dangerous than nuclear power.

        • unless you want people to die on purpose.

          It's important to me that I get to choose and not simply allow it to be random. ;-)

          There are so many things where the risk of death is non-zero (but small) and when you have enough people involved you can still end up with an impressive number of fatalities. People keel over running in marathons every year. And from commuting by bicycle (my company lost more than one employee that way). Of course we conveniently ignore the opposite statistics. Like of living of a sedentary lifestyle or of commuting by car.

  • by TwistedGreen ( 80055 ) on Monday February 12, 2024 @10:40PM (#64235638)

    How much air pollution does a burning Tesla make?

  • by burtosis ( 1124179 ) on Monday February 12, 2024 @11:01PM (#64235660)
    I’ve got people complaining about the lowered air quality from 2-cycle lawn blowers and trimmers when they are 0.000001% of emissions. The argument is particulate count, all while Canadian wildfires browned the sky over my entire state for months and limited visibility to a few hundred yards. That effect is easily quadrillions of times or more than the effect of some direct particle source, you can easily see it from space unlike a leaf blower. This winter there is no snow in Minnesota and we are, to date, the warmest on record in 90%+ of the state. I could have taken a boat ride and gone shore fishing in lakes on Christmas Day, something never before possible in recorded history and it’s here to stay. The upper Midwest is historically subject to extreme swings, even 80F in a single 48hr period, but this is going to make those extremes swing far harder. Massive loss of air quality is only a small part of what’s happening.
    • by Cyberax ( 705495 ) on Monday February 12, 2024 @11:24PM (#64235684)

      I’ve got people complaining about the lowered air quality from 2-cycle lawn blowers and trimmers when they are 0.000001% of emissions.

      They are not insignificant. Blowers and mowers don't have ANY emissions control, and they spew quite a bit of unburnt crap.

      Also, they should be banned because they are terrible for the health of people who use them.

      • by Fly Swatter ( 30498 ) on Monday February 12, 2024 @11:38PM (#64235694) Homepage
        Most of the actual complaints towards 2-cycles is the noise. People are just using the lower hanging fruit of complaining about pollution to get them off the market and out of their neighbor's backyard.

        2 cycles do have emission controls, that's why you need the special tool to tune the carbs now. That's if you are lucky. Some new ones have no adjustment. And of course some states have already banned 2-cycle blowers and trimmers.

        Now, having known this I already bought battery versions to replace all my 2-cycle equipment as soon as the first one needed replacing at fifteen years old. I don't expect these to last that long BUT it is nice not dealing with the vibration, stink, noise, and 'will it run today' of using the blower/trimmer/chainsaw now.
        • by Cyberax ( 705495 ) on Monday February 12, 2024 @11:46PM (#64235704)

          2 cycles do have emission controls, that's why you need the special tool to tune the carbs now.

          No. They do not, they don't have catalytic convertors, so they emit plenty of unburned hydrocarbons. The result is that small engines are now emitting about the same amount of total smog-forming pollution as all passenger cars in CA! Source: https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/resourc... [ca.gov]

          It's crazy how filthy these things are. Also, banning them won't help that much with the noise, electric blowers are quieter, but not that much quieter.

          • This entire thread is proof of my point. People focus on 0.000001% of the problem while CO2 emissions are causing trillions to quadrillions of times the particulate issue alone, much less ecosystem collapse and extinctions. Go on about how dirty they are as I can’t breathe or even see the sun as the entire sky is burnt orange from the real source of particulates.
            • how are they focusing on one thing? its one of the many things that are being addressed
            • This entire thread is proof of my point. People focus on 0.000001% of the problem while CO2 emissions are causing trillions to quadrillions of times the particulate issue alone

              People aren't living in the high atmosphere inhaling the general mixture of global air. They are living next to other people inhaling fumes from 2 stroke shitty engines so bad that they actively go and close their windows to stop the smell.

              Just because a coal power plant 100km away spews more CO2 into the air doesn't mean you shouldn't focus on the emission sources that directly affect *YOU*. Specifically *YOU*. Not the globe. The globe doesn't give a shit if you press your face into the tailpipe of a combu

              • You've never been down wind from a forest fire, apparently.

                I have pictures at noon from my back porch of the last California wild fires. The sky was dark oranfe and the light level was similar to twilight. To say nothing of the serious hacking coughing fits that inspired me to buy half a dozen 13+ rated air filters to simply survive indoors from the shit that made it inside.

                I have battery powered everything but this crying about the non battery versions destroying the planet is sheer idiocy when consideri

                • Exactly. I have 80V packs for my string trimmer and blower, as well as 24V packs for my smaller blower and an EV. I went from burning 1 gallon, maybe 1.5 per season to none. Meanwhile I can’t breathe and we have summer in winter with record temps and feet less snow than average. CO2 is 99.99999% of the problem while particulates are a nice afterthought. Maybe someone should ban container ships burning crude sludge waste and emitting more particulates than entire states, not just a few leaf blowers
                • You've never been down wind from a forest fire, apparently.

                  You've never been able to logically follow a conversation apparently. Let me distil it down to your level of intelligence: Me no say forest fires not bad. Me say 2 stroke engines not good.

                  Kapish idiot?

                  • Nice grade school level attempt at recovery. But, ultimately, fail. As expected.

                    You managed to put ad hominem in every single sentence. Yermom is proud of your mad debate skillz!111

              • This entire thread is proof of my point. People focus on 0.000001% of the problem while CO2 emissions are causing trillions to quadrillions of times the particulate issue alone

                People aren't living in the high atmosphere inhaling the general mixture of global air. They are living next to other people inhaling fumes from 2 stroke shitty engines so bad that they actively go and close their windows to stop the smell.

                Just because a coal power plant 100km away spews more CO2 into the air doesn't mean you shouldn't focus on the emission sources that directly affect *YOU*. Specifically *YOU*. Not the globe. The globe doesn't give a shit if you press your face into the tailpipe of a combustion engine. That has only health impacts on *YOU*.

                I couldn’t see the sun for weeks, the sky was burnt orange, visibility went from miles to 2 hundred yards and you focus on smell. Smell that does not matter except for some small localized health effects while my state has feet less snow than normal and unfrozen bodies of water at abnormal times. Smell while ecosystems collapse and the world is being destroyed for indigenous life. Smell while the acrid stench of burn wet wood and leaf is choking and we have health alerts to stay inside and not ventu

            • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

              They are unimportant in terms of climate change, but if you live near someone using one then the emissions are quite likely to be significant to you.

              • They are unimportant in terms of climate change, but if you live near someone using one then the emissions are quite likely to be significant to you.

                Where does someone live where collapsing climate biomes don’t affect them? These people are morons.

            • by BigZee ( 769371 )
              The overall impact maybe insignificant but we're talking about pollution here. The impact of interest should be to you and those in the immediate vicinity when using the blower.
              • The overall impact maybe insignificant but we're talking about pollution here. The impact of interest should be to you and those in the immediate vicinity when using the blower.

                How about 40% of the nation who are in the immediate vicinity of those climate induced wildfires, where the particulates are so plentiful they can be seen from space with the unaided eye? These people have no idea what the real problem is not what vicinity means.

          • they don't have catalytic convertors

            leaf blower with catalytic converter [stihl.com]

            Do they all have them? No. Do some of them have them? Yes.

            Even with one they are still filthy, though, because of the fact that they urn premix. Oil injected 2 strokes exist but they are mostly shit from a reliability perspective so people do their best to avoid them, or just defeat the oil injection and run premix anyway.

          • by dasunt ( 249686 )

            No.

            In the US, yes:

            EPA has adopted emission standards to control both exhaust and evaporative emissions from small spark-ignition engines. Phase 3 exhaust emissions standards took effect in 2011 or 2012, depending on the size of the engine.

          • Presence of a catalytic converter is not the only way to control emissions, just disallowing the end user to adjust the fuel air mix is a control... They tried to cut emissions but there is only so much you can do on a hand held device that also burns oil as part of operation.

            My battery blower is that much quieter, enough that I don't need hearing protection just to go blow off a sidewalk or driveway. Same for the trimmer and chainsaw, noise is there but it isn't like a 2 cycle where instead of comfort y
          • i'm guessing you've never actually used any of those tools before.
            banning 2 stroke engines (namely for use in chain saws) is about the dumbest, most asinine thing progs are pushing (and that's saying oh so very much.)
            >but lithium
            yeah, okay.

        • Now, having known this I already bought battery versions to replace all my 2-cycle equipment as soon as the first one needed replacing at fifteen years old. I don't expect these to last that long BUT it is nice not dealing with the vibration, stink, noise, and 'will it run today' of using the blower/trimmer/chainsaw now.

          This. Unless you're doing commercial lawn care or something and need one that will run all day, I think the electric blowers and trimmers are simply better than their two-cycle predecessors. They have plenty of power and not only are they quieter and not smelly, they Just Work every spring. I expect the actual machines to last many years, though batteries may have to be replaced. OTOH, battery tech is continuously improving, so odds are that when you have to buy a replacement battery in a few years, the ne

      • by PPH ( 736903 )

        Our city is tearing holes in streets and planting decorative median landscaping. Which must be tended to by armies of workers with mowers, string trimmers and leaf blowers. The size of the plantings are such that electric tools just won't do the job. In fact, even consumer grade mowers and other equipment just isn't sufficient.

        I say we have them rip up all the plants and put the asphalt back.

      • All those private jets that the politicians and climate activists fly to attend conferences at exotic locations, instead of just making a Teams call.

        Aircraft jet engines burn jet fuel, which is just a particular form of kerosene. The fuel is mixed with inbound clean air that has been compressed in the compressor stages, then ignited and blown out the rear for thrust. Not a single catalytic converter in sight. Your gas car, which you need to go to work to provide for yourself and your family, and which these

        • Marking non-troll content as "troll" is a very dishonest tactic to cause such comments to be auto-censored by people whose filters are set to screen-out troll posts. It's a form of censorship of posts deployed by scoundrels who, having no legitimate counter-argument, are desperate to prevent others from seeing. Fear of ideas makes people who do this pathetic.

          Challenge:

          Whoever marked this post "troll", come back here and refute what was posted with a rational, factual argument and don't do it as "anonymous c

    • by Tablizer ( 95088 ) on Tuesday February 13, 2024 @12:49AM (#64235736) Journal

      Gas-powered blowers and trimmers are fucking LOUD. Ruined many Sunday naps. Even without the pollution issue, those fuckers should be banned. Electric ones are much quieter.

      Good Riddance!

      • Re: (Score:1, Flamebait)

        by JBeretta ( 7487512 )

        Your comfort, 24 hours a day / seven days a week, is all that matters.

        Everything you don't like should be banned. You are all that matters.

        You're good enough, you're smart enough, and doggone it, people like you.

        • if there are better solutions they should be deployed.
        • by narcc ( 412956 )

          You have a right to be a noisy, smelly, obnoxious, asshole! To hell with the neighbors! You are all that matters!

          Honestly, do you have any self-awareness?

          • You have a right to be a noisy, smelly, obnoxious, asshole! To hell with the neighbors! You are all that matters!

            Honestly, do you have any self-awareness?

            Postel's law works best when practiced in real life.

          • You have a right to be a noisy, smelly, obnoxious, asshole! To hell with the neighbors! You are all that matters!

            You really don't see a distinction between asking that people be polite and criminally prosecuting people for rudeness?

            • by narcc ( 412956 )

              Let's review: Burtosis asserts that emissions from 2-stroke cycle blowers and trimmers are insignificant. Tablizer suggested that gas-powered blowers and trimmers should be banned merely because they're obnoxiously loud. JBeretta, who doesn't understand hyperbole, accused Tabilizer of being self-centered. I then explained to JBeretta that he was the one who was actually being selfish.

              Nowhere did anyone suggest that anyone should be criminally prosecuted for anything, let alone rudeness. Neither did anyon

        • Your comfort, 24 hours a day / seven days a week, is all that matters.

          Everything you don't like should be banned. You are all that matters.

          He's not wrong. Noise pollution is a horrible thing that makes cities unliveable and have negative mental health impacts. You are what matters. And if other people are negatively affecting you they should be brought into line.

      • by Anonymous Coward
        I think they should be banned because when I hear one I feel the need to go do my yard also.
    • If Slashdot allowed image embedding in posts, this would be a perfect use for the Bart "at least you tried" meme.

      https://tenor.com/view/at-leas... [tenor.com]

  • ... remove the contribution of wildfires to the particulate count. By cutting down the trees before they burn. Then, plant some more and let them grow and sequester more carbon. Rinse and repeat.

  • Why don't they understand the real source of the increased PM2.5 is due to the increase of volcanic activity ?
    • There's no evidence that volcanic activity is actually increasing. There are more reports of small scale volcanic events, because there are more observers looking for these events in order to research them. But the rate of larger volcanic events have been flat for 100's of years.

      • by Tablizer ( 95088 )

        That damned Sleepy Joe made more volcanos!

        Wait, isn't "Joe Versus the Volcano" a movie?

      • hmm... Volcanic activity peaks during every Solar Max cycle! This is something I observed as a teen, I even wrote a paper on it back when I was a kid in my AP 101 Astronomy class. Next thing you know someone wrote a paper in 2003 about it and NASA makes reference to it. Solar Storms influence geological activity and climate. If you dig around and research the historical volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, hurricanes, typhoons.. they all have something in common. They occured during a solar max cycle.
      • I wouldn't just make this up and post this. All the scientists on the greenhouse gas bandwagon are wrong. Our Sun and the tilt of the Earth are driving climate change. You should read and learn what's released into the atmosphere when a volcano erupts. Our Earth wouldn't be what it is if there was no volcanic activity. We need to adapt. The Scientists that declare what is the cause of climatic change is are really not qualified to do so. A climatologist needs to be more than a meteorologist. T
  • We have to fix this, and the only solution is more communism! /s

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