Higher Temperatures Mean Higher Food and Other Prices (apnews.com) 96
Food prices and overall inflation will rise as temperatures climb with climate change, a new study by an environmental scientist and the European Central Bank found. From a report: Looking at monthly price tags of food and other goods, temperatures and other climate factors in 121 nations since 1996, researchers calculate that "weather and climate shocks" will cause the cost of food to rise 1.5 to 1.8 percentage points annually within a decade or so, even higher in already hot places like the Middle East, according to a study in Thursday's journal Communications, Earth and the Environment.
And that translates to an increase in overall inflation of 0.8 to 0.9 percentage points by 2035, just caused by climate change extreme weather, the study said. Those numbers may look small, but to banks like the U.S. Federal Reserve that fight inflation, they are significant, said study lead author Max Kotz, a climate scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany. "The physical impacts of climate change are going to have a persistent effect on inflation," Kotz said. "This is really from my perspective another example of one of the ways in which climate change can undermine human welfare, economic welfare."
And that translates to an increase in overall inflation of 0.8 to 0.9 percentage points by 2035, just caused by climate change extreme weather, the study said. Those numbers may look small, but to banks like the U.S. Federal Reserve that fight inflation, they are significant, said study lead author Max Kotz, a climate scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany. "The physical impacts of climate change are going to have a persistent effect on inflation," Kotz said. "This is really from my perspective another example of one of the ways in which climate change can undermine human welfare, economic welfare."
Really? (Score:1)
Isn't inflation much worse to worry about? This is just a clickbait headline. In a decade food is going to cost 100x.
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Want to bet on that?
Crypto guy who made a bet on hyperinflation based on just the vibes lost pretty spectacularly
Balaji Srinivasan lost $1 million in a bizarre bitcoin bet [qz.com]
Soylent Green ! (Score:3)
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Isn't inflation much worse to worry about?
This is about inflation.
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Price gouging on food will only last as long as it takes for new competitors to show up. Because the big players can immediately shut those down by lowering prices again. Prices on food have increased way past actual inflation because most food is based on an annual cycle of raising animals or growing crops and every middle man along the way is gouging.
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Competitors? What competitors? The supermarket chains have it all locked up, screwing what few actual farmers there are left, they deal with agribusiness, and drive small stores out of business.
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It's happening at every level, not just the store. Luckily I have a local chain that has kept their cut in line but manufacturer prices are still high.
And also... (Score:5, Insightful)
Lower Temperatures Mean Higher Food and Other Prices, Unchanged Temperatures Mean Higher Food and Other Prices, Wars Mean Higher Food and Other Prices, Peace Mean Higher Food and Other Prices.
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If $15 is the new $10 due to monetary policy, that doesn't necessarily mean there's any less real wealth (goods and services) than there were before. Just that a dollar is a smaller denomination than before.
But if crops take more inputs to grow, that will result in a real decline in average living standards. Productivity gains increase real wealth, and losses decrease it.
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One of the authors works for the European central bank, so I guess "inflation" is what they're interested in, but calling it that makes it easy to dismiss like the GP did.
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War is peace.
Freedom is slavery.
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^this.
Compared to the inflationary effects of incompetent* monetary policy, government policy, taxation, and a host of other factors, this amounts to noise.
*incompetent is the charitable term if you believe their intent is the benefit of their citizenry; it's actually rather highly competent if short-sighted if one is more cynical about their goals being the wealth/power of themselves and their friends.
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The opposite actually, at least as seen so far. Food is getting cheaper and more abundant due to global warming. Two factors are involved on the positive side, and these outweigh the primary negatives by quite a bit:
Global factor: CO2 increase in atmosphere. Chlorophyll based life would like around 1500 ppm. We're a bit above 400 right now, and from planet's history point, the plant life is starved of CO2. That's why there's no megaflora any more. But as it increases, we're getitng around 2-3% yield increas
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To clarify on my point, the efficiency comes from measuring "how long must one work to afford certain amount of food across time".
I.e. it may cost more in terms of absolute numbers, but less in terms of work that one needs to do to feed oneself. And this is global average, so some locales may experience ups and downs, but in general food is slowly getting cheaper everywhere.
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Sure now explain to the retired and people on fixed incomes like the disabled that they're able to buy just as much as before.
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Political and financial policies of their nations are the primary factor in purchasing power shifts.
In case of West, the main reason why a lot of things went up in price is a combination of pandemic shut downs costs of which were deferred with debasing of currencies of nations involved.
That means that people who don't do productive work go down in their ability to get things that require productive work.
There are smaller factors as well. For example mass retiring of the most productive generation in many We
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So that's your long way of saying you don't give a shit about the poor, the disabled, the elderly or anyone else on a fixed income who doesn't pull down your 6 figures....
Nice.
Do you also throw children into pits with mean hungry dogs, for fun? After all, the children should have just grown up faster and bigger, right?
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Have you stopped beating your wife yet?
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This is why we started calling it climate change, rather than global warming. The Earth is warming, but it's the fact that it is changing rapidly that is the real problem. Instead of centuries to adapt to very slow changes, we are now at the point where farmers are having to change crops every few years in some places.
Shilling for corporate greed (Score:4, Interesting)
It's articles like this which achieve the intended purpose of deflecting blame for rising food prices from corporate greed to a nebulous phenomenon beyond the control of the average person.
For example, the price of wheat [macrotrends.net] has fallen back to pre-pandemic levels, but we're still paying pandemic pricing for bread.
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It's articles like this which achieve the intended purpose of deflecting blame for rising food prices from corporate greed to a nebulous phenomenon beyond the control of the average person.
For example, the price of wheat [macrotrends.net] has fallen back to pre-pandemic levels, but we're still paying pandemic pricing for bread.
Precisely!
Instead of investigating Apple and the price of Apps, the DOJ should be investigating post-pandemic profiteering in the retail food industry.
It's a foregone conclusion that more people eat than have iPhones.
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Why don't they just break down all the monopolies and near monopolies, starting with the largest? No need to choose between big tech monopolies and food conglomerates.
Such as four companies [reuters.com] controlling 85% of the meat processing in the U.S.
Hans Kristian Graebener is Stonetoss.
Re:Shilling for corporate greed (Score:4, Informative)
It's articles like this which achieve the intended purpose of deflecting blame for rising food prices from corporate greed to a nebulous phenomenon beyond the control of the average person.
For example, the price of wheat [macrotrends.net] has fallen back to pre-pandemic levels, but we're still paying pandemic pricing for bread.
The word you're looking for is greedflation [fortune.com]. It's well documented that over half of the inflation we saw last year [yahoo.com] was the direct result of companies raising prices to increase profits [theguardian.com] and nothing else.
The only way to combat this is to stop buying things. Let that bag of chips rot on the shelf. Don't buy those dozen eggs [cbsnews.com]. Stop buyng all those Chinese-made Yeti products. People need to send a message.
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The most you can do is stop buying prepackaged things. Staple groceries aren't exactly easy to boycott unless you have the means to grow your own or have somewhere to buy local meat and produce. Which you absolutely can and should. It may be cheaper than the grocery store. But only some of the population reasonably can. With a concerted effort, it might be enough.
I'm not going to be the one to start getting into the commercial food business right now to undercut the big players, because that will trigg
Farmer getting smaller slice of the shelf price (Score:3)
I get the impression that the price of bread on the shelf is loosely coupled to the price of wheat at the grain elevator. A lot of work needs to be done along with wages paid and fuel purchased to mill the grain, bake the bread, stock the shelf and sell it to the customer.
It appears that the price of food rises and falls (yes, some food prices have come down from their peaks) with the price of #2 diesel fuel.
It used to be that staples such as bread, rice, pasta and potatoes were cheap in relation to
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I get the impression that the price of bread on the shelf is loosely coupled to the price of wheat at the grain elevator
That's why they ride on the wave of inflation and just inflate a little bit more here and there. And then they don't deflate when prices go down.
Fast food is the same way. Corporate is gouging franchisees. But I can go to a local restaurant and pay fast food prices now and get a nice meal. It's the quick and easy proof that this is all greed.
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I get the impression that the price of bread on the shelf is loosely coupled to the price of wheat at the grain elevator. A lot of work needs to be done along with wages paid and fuel purchased to mill the grain, bake the bread, stock the shelf and sell it to the customer.
It appears that the price of food rises and falls (yes, some food prices have come down from their peaks) with the price of #2 diesel fuel.
It used to be that staples such as bread, rice, pasta and potatoes were cheap in relation to meat, butter, eggs and milk. Meat, especially beef has gotten really expensive, but it is not too hard these days to pay 4 dollars (US) or more for a loaf of bread, especially if you want a whole-wheat or multi-grain product.
Before we blame corporate greed, the entire supply chain has faced increased costs in all of the inputs to put food on a store shelf. Labor and energy costs of food distribution and retailing have to be recovered from consumer spending some way, some how, and there is a lot of "overhead" expenses that need to be apportioned between the items stores sell. "Poverty food" items such as rice, dry beans and peas, lentils and so on are not that cheap, in relative terms as they once were, suggesting more assignment of general store overhead in their price.
To use a car analogy, when you take out a loan to pay $50,000 for a new automobile, a large fraction of that is going towards the health care benefit car companies provide their workers.
Whaddya wanna bet that Food Prices will Magically fall, right after the November Elections?
Just like the "Border Crisis", The (largely) Republican-led Food Retailers have every reason to keep this up; not only does it help out "their guy", but all those windfall profits are nice, too!
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It's articles like this which achieve the intended purpose of deflecting blame for rising food prices from corporate greed to a nebulous phenomenon beyond the control of the average person.
For example, the price of wheat [macrotrends.net] has fallen back to pre-pandemic levels, but we're still paying pandemic pricing for bread.
There's a few factors you're forgetting.
One, wheat gets stockpiled, so even though prices have dropped back now stockpiles might still be low.
But more importantly, wheat only makes up about 11% of the value of bread [ahdb.org.uk], the rest is gobbled up by other parts of the supply chain, including supermarket shelf-space.
That doesn't mean corporate greed doesn't play a role, sometimes egregiously so [globalnews.ca], but I wouldn't expect the price of wheat to have a big impact on the price of bread in even a well functioning market.
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You might be interested to know that in a very well run and profitable supermarket, their net profit might, if they were lucky, reach 2%; 1.5% is much more common. I know because my father worked in that industry as a department manager, department supervisor and eventually buyer.
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Yep.
Regulatory capture runs the world. That's all this 'greenwashing' is - a deflection of the capture.
There is no possible way they've been able to isolate the impact of temperature change from other causes of inflation. If their models had that level of capability, they'd not be shilling for climate alarmism, they'd be retired and wealthy off their stock investments started from $15.
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Strangely I just don't see it happening.
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They get an awesome boondoggle trip once or twice a year to some exotic party location, though.
I'm still waiting for them to party in central Iowa.
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That's right, because wheat is the only ingredient in bread. There is no labor and no energy required, and transportation of wheat and bread is free.
That's sarcasm in case you missed it.
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Not really.
Inflation is driven by the government pouring money into the economy, without increasing the supply of goods and services.
More money chasing less stuff.
Inflation could be worse if the mostly largest corporations and the richest individuals were not sucking up the excess cash and storing it away. Most businesses don't qualify as rich, and they have to deal with costs, and that means higher prices. It is pretty absurd to blame the messenger (businesses) when they have no control over government sp
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"another blunt unsupported denialists statement"
this is why it's difficult to take y'all seriously. this is a an actual study. you can take issue with the claims or methodology in it but this response is just "nah, ive created a scenario in my head that allows me to keep my political positions. i didnt even read the thing, i want to create a scenario where i can never be wrong" just makes the very thing you complained about like 20x worse.
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It's an actual study, and it's probably correct. It just has relatively little bearing on today's grocery prices. Both things can be true.
See here:
"weather and climate shocks" will cause the cost of food to rise 1.5 to 1.8 percentage points annually within a decade
So do you think the price of food on the shelf has risen more than 2% per year for the last several years or not?
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I’m confused (Score:1)
How can I blame global inflation on Biden?
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If the US has inflation, then US is willing to pay higher prices for global commodities. The US is a large fraction of the global economy. Therefore higher US prices result in higher prices around the world. As they say, "When the US sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold."
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Commodities aren't expensive right now. But only a few companies take those commodities and process them for grocery packaging or restaurant use. Most of food inflation is imaginary based on the fact that I can't just easily go to buy a bushel of wheat to make my ham sandwich with. Also, a bushel of wheat makes approximately 42 lbs of flour and I don't have many places to store that around the house after I process it by hand.
right (Score:2, Informative)
Well, inflation is permanent. Therefore food prices will rise. Because it's warmer? Maybe being warmer means longer growing season. This article is pure BS.
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>> This article is pure BS.
You didn't even bother to look at the study, did you.
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What for? 1-2% rise starting in 5-10 years based on a bu ch of "ifs" and models and maybes?
That falls in the noise category. If the price of an egg today is $1 will it be $1.02 in ten years and because of warming? The very notion of being able to measure such a thing to that level of accuracy is absurd.
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>> based on a bu ch of "ifs" and models and maybes?
You obviously didn't bother to look at the study either, troll.
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I read what you posted. I don't have to read the study to know that future predictions are just predictions, dumb ass.
You use the same moronic reply to everyone who dares question this stupid as fuck "study".
It is not a study. It is crystal ball bullshit.
Asshole.
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>> It is crystal ball bullshit.
You didn't read the study and you don't know a damn thing about this.
Is global warming also going to (Score:5, Funny)
Let the air out of my tires on a rainy day?
Clog the drain in the bathroom sinks that's hardest to clean?
Replace my salt and my sugar and leave all the dry erase marker caps off overnight?
Or is it morons who believe the end is nigh, so why use critical thinking? who are, and ever shall be, the biggest source of problems for the civilized world?
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Funny, I'd think "critical thinking" would quickly come to the conclusion that rapidly shifting weather patterns due to global warming are bound to negatively effect agriculture. If your sweet spots for agriculture like California or Western Europe suffer reduced agricultural productivity (as they have already) due to changing weather patterns of course prices will go up.
This is hardly "the end is nigh" thinking. It's simply exploring the logical outcome to something we can see unfolding in front of us toda
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Ha. Fortunately my self esteem is fine as anyone whose opinion of another changes based on a typo in an internet forum is a moron and can be safely ignored.
Thanks for letting me know that bit about yourself though.
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whew, he used the wrong word, so I don't have to think about what he said.
That was a close one!
Inflation is not from heat (Score:3, Informative)
The definition of inflation is "an increase in monetary supply".
Heat has nothing to do with it. Inflation is caused by governments permanently FORCING inflation - the U.S. for example has a 2% target for annual inflation they work to maintain, which has now run away from them.
Everything getting more expensive is on government central bankers, not a warming planet.
Why do governments inflate? It's an easy way of stealing from you without seeming to tax your or directly take your money... instead they print more to spend on extravagances you would be mad to fund directly, but the money you hold is worth less. At 2% you don't really notice year to hear how much value you are losing, it's only in recent years it's become really clear what kind of theft inflation can be.
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This is how a post should be written.
You state your premise, then you state your conclusions based on that premise.
Since your premise is your own personal definition of inflation, we can immediately evaluate the validity of your conclusions.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]
First sixteen words of the article.
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Clever, linking to the wrong article.
Here's the right one:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]
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The article you linked is wrong. A general increase in prices is called a general price increase. Not inflation.
My link is correct.
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Uh huh.
I'm curious. Do you actually not know what inflation is? Are you so enamoured with the "the gubmint did it" hypothesis that you believe it's right by definition? Or are you trying to convince yourself that bitcoin you bought at $70k is going to make you rich some day?
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I know exactly what inflation is. Wikipedia is wrong, which isn't surprising at all.
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So all three then.
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The definition of inflation is "an increase in monetary supply".
No, the definition is that the same amount of money will buy you less.
The money supply has surprisingly little effect on that. If more money is available, people will, in order: 1. pay off debts, 2. save up, 3. buy things.
You contradict yourself when you say that the government is forcing inflation by failing to keep it down. Which is it, the government not being able to keep inflation low, or the government actively forcing it higher? It cannot be both.
And as you say yourself, the USA's government's poli
That is not that (Score:1)
You contradict yourself when you say that the government is forcing inflation by failing to keep it down.
That's because that is not what I said.
The governments goal was to drive 2% per year inflation. So you cannot feel the pain. Like boiling a frog.
However in recent years it has been over that target, so they have been desperately trying to bring it back down.
Where is the contradiction? They don't want people to feel inflation, but the fact is food costs alone have gone up fast enough now people notice.
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Where is the contradiction?
In your saying that your government is simultaneously driving inflation both up and down at the same time.
Irrelevant what PEOPLE will do
Oh? Has the singularity happened and machines are all that matters now?
that extra money will be chasing the same amount of goods
This lie is repeated often, but it is not supported by facts.
The facts are that the amount of goods has not stayed the same, and that the amount of money in circulation increases more than inflation does.
No government benefits from inflation. You claim that they steal by decreasing your purchasing power, and that is certainly a way
Not at the same time (Score:1)
In your saying that your government is simultaneously driving inflation both up and down at the same time.
No.
I said they act to drive inflation up and down.
But it is at different times, depending on what the current desired direction of movement is.
The goal in theory is 2% but there are many factors involved and they appear to have giving up trying to regain 2%.
In part because it's an election year.
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First you said it is the government that is forcing inflation, and now you say there are many factors driving up inflation that spite the government. And you insist that you are not contradicting yourself.
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Give me a break, this is basic supply and demand economics and can be observed right here and now. Less food food and less fuel entering the global market due to the Ukraine war has caused inflation globally.
While governments do like a little inflation (for a lot of reasons) there is no need for government action for it to happen as wide scale drought in an agricultural zone can easily cause the same thing.
hyperbole and fallacy for fun and profit by msmash (Score:2)
Higher Temperatures Mean Higher Food and Other Prices
~ THEREFORE
Lower Temperatures Mean Lower Food and Other Prices
~ NOT REALLY
See how that sounds?! #doublePicardFacepalm
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I'd prefer #DoubleDiNozzoHeadSlap
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So your logic is:
Claims that a system is worse by having too much of X is wrong, because...
not having enough X is also bad?
Ideal conditions exist, and pushing something in either direction can be bad.
Re: hyperbole and fallacy for fun and profit by ms (Score:1)
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Ahh sorry, my bad, I very much misinterpreted what part of the sentence was aimed at what.
Greenlight to inflation (Score:2)
This report just gives food manufacturers the OK to raise prices arbitrarily.
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red light special
not the use of less productive farming techniques! (Score:2)
so if I understand this right, it's not the use of the less productive farming techniques promoted with organic farming, that use more land and have substantially lower production per acre. In addition to that, shortages of fertilizer for standard farming causing lower yields. These aren't driving prices up??? instead it's a slight increase in global temperature.
while I agree that temperatures can have some effects, I'd lean towards fertilizer shortages and organics as being a larger driver in this.
Greed (Score:1)
Why are all the farmers in Europe protesting? Is it because of the global warming making the food expensive, or is it the government taxing the food to make it expensive? I thought it was about new ridiculous taxes, designed to get small farmers to sell to big farmers who pay governments to squeeze the little people in to selling.
Move along now (Score:2)
Bailing out the banks in 2008 and printing endless money through a decade of QE has no long term repercussions for the money supply and inflation rates
Move along now citizen
using science to lie for politicians (Score:2, Interesting)
In much of the West, the politicians are rapidly implementing very unpopular policies that have the effect of making food more expensive and less-plentiful. These effects are very unpopular, but the politicians seem unshakably wedded to the policies, so they need to shift the blame to somebody else. Who better to shift the blame than politically-aligned (and often government-funded) scientists who can push a lie on the public and denounce anybody who doubts as "anti-science"?
Inflation is purely an economic
Meanwhile here in Canada.. (Score:3)
https://nationalpost.com/news/... [nationalpost.com]
Unfortunately for farmers, their products are sold on the free market so they can't just pass on the cost increases to consumers. Ironically though, if Turdeau can make farming uneconomical enough that producers leave the business altogether, prices will naturally rise in response to the reduced supply. Not the brightest folks we have running things here.
The good news is (Score:2)
Heating costs will go down. The heat pump will be in heat mode for another month yet, although on a few warm days it may get turned off for a few hours so I can open the windows and air the place out. Currently at 2:40 PM it's 56 F. Frost is expected tonight.
Yep. I saw this coming. (Score:2)