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United States

US Fertility Rate Falls To Lowest In a Century (cnn.com) 281

An anonymous reader quotes a report from CNN: The fertility rate in the United States has been trending down for decades, and a new report shows that another drop in births in 2023 brought the rate down to the lowest it's been in more than century. There were about 3.6 million babies born in 2023, or 54.4 live births for every 1,000 females ages 15 to 44, according to provisional data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Center for Health Statistics. After a steep plunge in the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic, the fertility rate has fluctuated. But the 3% drop between 2022 and 2023 brought the rate just below the previous low from 2020, which was 56 births for every 1,000 women of reproductive age.

The birth rate fell among most age groups between 2022 and 2023, the new report shows. The teen birth rate reached another record low of 13.2 births per 1,000 females ages 15 to 19, which is 79% lower than it was at the most recent peak from 1991. However, the rate of decline was slower than it's been for the past decade and a half. Meanwhile, births continued to shift to older mothers. Older age groups saw smaller decreases in birth rates, and the birth rate was highest among women ages 30 to 34 -- with about 95 births for every 1,000 women in this group in 2023. Women 40 and older were the only group to see an increase in birth rate, although -- at less than 13 births for every 1,000 women -- it remained lower than any other age group.

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US Fertility Rate Falls To Lowest In a Century

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  • Economic harship (Score:4, Insightful)

    by sinij ( 911942 ) on Thursday April 25, 2024 @08:01AM (#64423780)
    Destroying middle class has predictable consequence of tanking birth rate. News at 11.
    • by gweihir ( 88907 )

      Yep. Such a surprise.

    • Economic worship (Score:5, Insightful)

      by fyngyrz ( 762201 ) on Thursday April 25, 2024 @08:35AM (#64423860) Homepage Journal

      Destroying middle class has predictable consequence of tanking birth rate. News at 11.

      "We must have constant inflation or people might, you know, save!"

      Then... basics cost (a lot) more and mid- to low-tier wages don't even come close to keeping up

      Brutal housing, education, medical, food, vehicle, and fuel costs, crushing taxes on the lower tier workers... gee, sounds like a great circumstance to bring some ever-more-expensive rug rats into.

      The "American Dream" is deader than Trump's diaper contents for a large swath of those of an age to be pumping out crotch goblins. But hey: The stock market is doing Great!

      Or perhaps it's just that no one wants to hump someone with their pants falling off their butt — or otherwise dressing like a refugee.

      Obligatory: get off my lawn.

    • Re:Economic harship (Score:5, Interesting)

      by ElizabethGreene ( 1185405 ) on Thursday April 25, 2024 @08:56AM (#64423908)

      I don't know that you can blame this. The correlation / causation of birth rates to incomes is weird in that people with less money tend to have more kids.

      Birth rate in the United States in 2019 by household income:
      https://www.statista.com/stati... [statista.com]

      The clearer trend is an overall decline in birth rates across all groups.
      https://www.statista.com/stati... [statista.com]

      We only had two and now that they're off to college and adulthood I wish we'd had more. Related, I understand why my state makes it hard to be approved as a foster parent, but damn, y'all.

      • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

        by wyHunter ( 4241347 )
        Why is this a surprise? If you're both working professional jobs, ones that often end up with a lot of (unpaid) overtime, you probably don't want more kids because you're too intellectually and emotionally exhausted even to consider this. If you have a more casual employment, life may be stressful due to lower income, but perhaps a bit more enjoyable in other ways, which might make you want more kids. If you're not well off, and getting subsidized healthcare, you might not be in terror of losing your hea
        • by hey! ( 33014 )

          Also, employment is a lot less stable than it used to be. When I entered the workforce in the early 80s it was still common for people who were retiring to have worked for the same company all their lives. Young people now live in a gig economy; if they *do* work for a company, often they don't know how many hours they'll get from week to week.

          And while things like TVs are cheaper than ever, essentials are often far more expensive. Median rents for a studio apartment in the US were about $250 when I got

    • Exactly. I don't know why this is such a shock.
    • Re:Economic harship (Score:5, Interesting)

      by ZipNada ( 10152669 ) on Thursday April 25, 2024 @09:17AM (#64423984)

      >> Destroying middle class

      The middle class has been gradually shrinking for 50 years, it didn't start just recently. Birth rates do not appear to track with that decline however.

      https://www.statista.com/stati... [statista.com]

    • Re:Economic harship (Score:5, Informative)

      by DesScorp ( 410532 ) on Thursday April 25, 2024 @09:27AM (#64424018) Journal

      Destroying middle class has predictable consequence of tanking birth rate. News at 11.

      "Economic Hardship" has jack-shit to do with most of the declining birthrate. Women have more money than ever. If being poor hurt the birthrate, the Third World would have ceased to exist centuries ago. Women choosing careers over marriage has far more to do with it. Those that are getting married are doing so much later in life, when their fertility is already declining, and having few children is a consequence of that. Why do you think IVF and egg-freezing are in such demand? Because women that waited until 30 to get married discover, often to their surprise, that their best chances of pregnancy are in the rear window.

      Women were told that they could have it all, the best of both worlds: that they could live like men in their twenties, living the single sexual life and moving up their corporate ladder, and after they had their fun, then they could marry the man of their dreams and have their family. All in a neat package. Except nature doesn't work that way. The Biological Clock is a thing, women have a set number of eggs, and by thirty, they start heading downwards in terms of fertility. Late pregnancies have a greater chance of complications and birth defects. The peak year for fertility and healthy birth is, IIRC, age 24 on average for females.

      Life is a series of choices. And choices have consequences. Declining birthrates are inescapable considering the choices made.

      • by sinij ( 911942 )
        Yes, what you describe also plays a big role in the long-term birth rate decline. However, what you describe is not a new factor and cannot be used to explain for this additional and new drop in birth rates.
      • Comparing places where women largely do not have a choice in whether they are going to be mothers (third world) to the U.S. where women do have the choice is just dumb. Where women have a choice, then their economic situation factors very much into the decision making. To say this is not a factor because poor women in third world countries are raped at the age of 15 is a very irrelevant argument.
      • "Economic Hardship" has jack-shit to do with most of the declining birthrate. Women have more money than ever. If being poor hurt the birthrate, the Third World would have ceased to exist centuries ago. Women choosing careers over marriage has far more to do with it. Those that are getting married are doing so much later in life, when their fertility is already declining, and having few children is a consequence of that. Why do you think IVF and egg-freezing are in such demand? Because women that waited unt

      • by ranton ( 36917 )

        "Economic Hardship" has jack-shit to do with most of the declining birthrate.

        This is simply not true. You would be correct in saying the drop in birth rate from 1958 to 1978 had nothing to do with economic hardship. It was a result of the abnormally high birth rate after WW2 coupled with more women entering the workforce and other effects that economic prosperity has on lowering birth rates. But that drop had stabilized and even reversed a bit for 30 years until 2008, when fertility started to drop again.

        The drop in US fertility since 2008 is not because of women entering the workfo

      • by RobinH ( 124750 )
        Exactly. The last generation fought for women to have a choice... women felt like the option of a career was denied to them. They now have that choice, but the reality of the fact that you have to choose family, career, or a lesser combination of both is causing some heads to explode. "You mean we can't have it all?" Well, no, men couldn't have it all either. Every single rom-com or drama movie growing up explained to me that as a man I would face a dilemma: have a super-successful career, or be a grea
      • Not sure where you got the 24 number from, but my midwives put the optimum age much younger.

        When I was discussing risk factors with my midwife, and filling out the survey, they had "age" listed as a risk factor. I'm pedantic, so I clarified "you mean old age, right?", which of course was true. They were talking about women being OLDER as a risk factor. But I asked if young age could also be a risk factor. They just laughed and said "no, older is always higher risk". Which didn't seem right, so I pushed...th
    • That's the exact opposite of how it actually works. Fertility rates tend to be highest among socioeconomically challenged groups, and lowest among high earning groups.

    • Lol, don't worry. We can simply lecture young people until they have more kids. That's the big strategy I'm seeing. Ignore housing, ignore inflation, ignore all the social problems making you think twice. Just tell them they are fucking up bad and need to start pumping out children and all those things are just in their heads. I mean, they are making more money than any generation ever, houses are cheaper than ever, cars and insurance are cheaper, food is cheaper (stop believing your lying eyes), and the ec
  • by magzteel ( 5013587 ) on Thursday April 25, 2024 @08:16AM (#64423812)

    "Women over 40 have the lowest birth rate" shouldn't come as a shock to anyone

    • by fyngyrz ( 762201 )

      "Women over 40 have the lowest birth rate" shouldn't come as a shock to anyone

      Older does tend to mean wiser, after all. Well... okay, for some people.

    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      It also says that the rate for that group is climbing, i.e. women are having children later. We see an increase in women freezing eggs when they are younger too.

      • Having children later increases the risk of defects and complications, and it's not just because of older genetic material so freezing it isn't a complete solution. And it's true for both men and women, for their respective parts. If we want more people to have more kids (which is something I question at a time when jobs are being eliminated by automation) and we want those children to be as health as possible, then we need to make it more feasible for young people to be able to afford to do it.

        • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

          I know, but this is the world we live in. The high cost of living and of accommodation gives women little choice.

          Worse still there is little prospect of it getting better, because boomers will vote against anything that devalues property back to sane levels.

        • Having children later increases the risk of defects and complications

          And besides....most of us prefer to bang younger chicks rather than older ones....

          40's are pretty hard on most womens' looks.

    • by unrtst ( 777550 )

      "Women over 40 have the lowest birth rate" shouldn't come as a shock to anyone

      And yet, that rate (13 per 1000) is nearly the same as the teen (15-19) rate (13.2 per 1000). Is that not surprising? (it was to me)

      • "Women over 40 have the lowest birth rate" shouldn't come as a shock to anyone

        And yet, that rate (13 per 1000) is nearly the same as the teen (15-19) rate (13.2 per 1000). Is that not surprising? (it was to me)

        They are comparing "women over 40" (no upper bound) against "teens from 15-19".

        • by unrtst ( 777550 )

          "Women over 40 have the lowest birth rate" shouldn't come as a shock to anyone

          And yet, that rate (13 per 1000) is nearly the same as the teen (15-19) rate (13.2 per 1000). Is that not surprising? (it was to me)

          They are comparing "women over 40" (no upper bound) against "teens from 15-19".

          So? What's your point?

          Here's data from 2022: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/... [cdc.gov]
          "The provisional birth rate for women aged 40–44 in 2022 was 12.5 births per 1,000 women"
          "The provisional birth rate for women aged 45–49 (includes births to women aged 50 and over) was 1.1 births per 1,000 women"

          That's still nearly the same as the 15-19 rate, and those are MUCH more fertile ages.

          • They are comparing "women over 40" (no upper bound) against "teens from 15-19".

            So? What's your point?

            We seem to be ignoring the prime reproductive ages of 20s and 30s....

        • "(no upper bound)" -- You do realize that doctors call pregnancies beyond the age 35 "geriatric" for a reason. Fertility drops off rapidly beyond age 35. At 40 a woman is half as likely to get pregnant in one year than at 20, at 50 they are 3% as likely as at 20. Age 50 is pretty much the "upper bound". These late-in-life pregnancies are not happening without medical assistance.
      • "Women over 40 have the lowest birth rate" shouldn't come as a shock to anyone

        And yet, that rate (13 per 1000) is nearly the same as the teen (15-19) rate (13.2 per 1000). Is that not surprising? (it was to me)

        Actually I'm wrong. This much better article from the WSJ says "women 40-44". Free link: https://www.wsj.com/us-news/am... [wsj.com]

  • Poor countries have more babies, then the children immigrate. America has 100 million more people than 40 years ago. and both democrats and republicans use the cheap labour to build their profits. Nothings changed since slavery, we just give them $15 an hour in token wages just to fig leaf the ethics of having labour drones. AI is being developed because computers will be the new slaves, without all that pesky racism this time around.
    • Exactly the case. Plus, the goal is to raise the minimum wage JUST ENOUGH that folks AREN'T eligible for federal and state benefits - so they'll be desperately poor because prices rise to cover the higher wages, with an even smaller or nonexistent safety net.
    • AI won't stop the racism. Dog whistling wins votes, so don't expect the politicians ever stop stirring up an electoral advantage with their three word slogans like "stop teh boats".
  • It wasn't that long ago that Elon Musk was roundly criticized for saying we're facing a population decline, not an increase. He was right, having children is a blessing. As a family man, I can tell you that you won't find anything more amazing than being a Dad. It changes you. It gives you an enormous sense of purpose. When that first child is born, especially, you feel the weight of it: this wonderful creature, its very life and health, depends upon you now. You won't need to tell yourself to get up and go

    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      As an aside, that's actually legally the case in the UK. You can't sue for damages for having a child, e.g. because you raised them but found out you were not their biological parent, or your sperm was accidentally given to the wrong person at the fertility clinic etc. The law considered a child to always be a blessing, not something that can ever cause you financial loss.

    • by ArchieBunker ( 132337 ) on Thursday April 25, 2024 @08:54AM (#64423904)

      Elon has something like 10 children and a number of them won’t even speak to him.

    • It wasn't that long ago that Elon Musk was roundly criticized for saying we're facing a population decline, not an increase.

      We're not having a population decline. Not in the slightest bit. What we're having is a decrease in the rate of increase. That will be temporary at best.

      • Er, given the rising average age in nations throughout the world, no we aren't having a 'slight decrease in the rate of increase.' Population is rising because folks are living longer, but realistically people can't (or shouldn't due to mutagens to which they were exposed, menopause, etc.,) in their 50s and onward.
    • I think that age changes you. You just happened to have kids, but you are still aging. I am a totally different person than I was in my 30's who was, himself, a totally different person than the 20's version.

      Your mind bends and adapts to your situation. There is no doubt that having children is a catalyzing event that can really give you focus in life. But there are plenty of other circumstances that are just as impactful.

      • I think that age changes you. You just happened to have kids, but you are still aging. I am a totally different person than I was in my 30's who was, himself, a totally different person than the 20's version.

        Your mind bends and adapts to your situation.

        It isn't age that does it....at least not everyone.

        I'm pretty much the same in my head as I was in my 20's-40's, etc.

        The only difference is...my body is physically slowing and telling me I cannot do what I used to do...can't stay out as late, drink as mu

    • by serviscope_minor ( 664417 ) on Thursday April 25, 2024 @09:17AM (#64423980) Journal

      As a family man, I can tell you that you won't find anything more amazing than being a Dad.

      For you, personally. If someone follows your advice and finds that's not the case, then, well, that's a bit of a permanent situation.

      And statistically, well...

      https://www.bps.org.uk/psychol... [bps.org.uk]

      Anyway I have no kids. My brother does but seems desperate to live vicariously though them which doesn't lead to happiness because they aren't interested in the same things.

      You won't need to tell yourself to get up and go, not ever again, not until they leave home.

      Observation of other parents strongly indicates that is not in fact true for a lot of people.

      • by RobinH ( 124750 )
        Surveys of adults are pretty clear... parents are less happy and are more stressed moment to moment, but report higher life satisfaction. So pick your poison. I have kids. Some days it's a struggle, but I'm glad I did. It's an amazing experience and I'm a better person because of it.
    • You won't need to tell yourself to get up and go, not ever again, not until they leave home.

      Most people half-ass parenting. I see it every time I go out into the world, and not just from the results (but that too.)

    • by dskoll ( 99328 )

      I have kids. I'm glad I had them. But would I have been less happy had I not had kids? I'm not sure. My kids are all adults now, and out of the house and independent, and I have to say, I greatly prefer this stage of my life than when the kids were little.

  • Perhaps it's time (Score:2, Interesting)

    by Ol Olsoc ( 1175323 )
    to face the music.

    Here in the west, we have disincentivized male/female relationships to the point where many males have largely given up. Some whack statistics out there.

    Marriage If you marry, she can divorce you for any reason, and take your children, most of your stuff, and you get to pay child support, and often alimony, as well as half of your retirement. around 80 percent of divorces are initiated by women.

    What person would go skydiving if there was a 50 percent chance their parachute would fail

  • by oumuamua ( 6173784 ) on Thursday April 25, 2024 @10:05AM (#64424130)
    unless you can support them for their whole life, cradle to grave. Automation is already threatening a LOT of jobs. Think how much worse it will be in 20 years. Unless your kid is Einstein they won't have a job. The powers that be have yet to make the merest peep addressing this problem and half the country considers most practical solutions 'communism'
    • Nonsense, kids can be raised to be properly functioning adults instead of adult babies seeking to sponge off others and be lawless which by the way is a major pillar of a particular political party in the USA.

      Computers and automation continue to CREATE jobs as it always has.

    • True. But affluent people are the ones having fewer babies.

  • Most of life is dreary, then most of the rest is pain.
    Life could not but evolve to make more life, with zero benefit to the individual. Humans live out of instinctual fear of death, not of joy.
    Making more is vain and cruel so why do that?

  • Maybe youse were expecting something different when most women are either lesbians or actually men?

  • The primary readers of relationship, family and health news stories are women.

    The message in those stories caters to the woman readers, ignoring the other half of the population.

    The message often times has shaming words used towards men.

    This is why the discussion on birth rates, fertility, childcare centers around and caters to women.

    Men are relegated to a 'must step up', 'must not be afraid of commitment', 'men don't get to make childcare decisions' role.

    It becomes apparent once you count the 'shaming lang

  • by TigerPlish ( 174064 ) on Thursday April 25, 2024 @02:45PM (#64425170)

    This isn't new. I have some friends..not many, but some. Curiously, few are my age. They're either 10-20 years under, or 10-20 years over. But i've known them all for 25+ years now.

    I don't have kids. They don't have kids. None of us wants kids, and when we do talk about the subject, it's always been -- even as far back as the 1990s -- "who wants to raise a child in this world / economy / geopolitical situation?"

    You imagine? Trying to raise a child in today's world? With war looming ever larger on the horizon, the economy on an express ride to hell, and then all the bizarro-world inversions were good is bad, left is right, up is down?

    Nah bruh. We're done feeding the machine. You won't make money from my offspring, because I have none.

    I do have exactly three friends my age -- I grew up with them, went to elementary and high school with them. We were all raised catholic, but I lost my religion around age 14 - 16. They remained devout catholics. They're the only ones with kids. They're also the only two of my whole group who stayed in PR. I find it curious, that it is the religious ones that chose to / blundered into having a family.

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