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United States Power

Is Nuclear Power in America Reviving - or Flailing? (msn.com) 209

Last week America's energy secretary cheered the startup of a fourth nuclear reactor at a Georgia power plant, calling it "the largest producer of clean energy, and the largest producer of electricity in the United States" after a third reactor was started up there in December.

From the U.S. Energy Department's transcript of the speech: Each year, Units 3 and 4 are going to produce enough clean power to power 1 million homes and businesses, enough energy to power roughly 1 in 4 homes in Georgia. Preventing 10 million metric tons of carbon dioxide pollution annually. That, by the way, is like planting more than 165 million trees every year!

And that's not to mention the historic investments that [electric utility] Southern has made on the safety front, to ensure this facility meets — and exceeds — the highest operating standards in the world....

To reach our goal of net zero by 2050, we have to at least triple our current nuclear capacity in this country. That means we've got to add 200 more gigawatts by 2050. Okay, two down, 198 to go! In building [Unit] 4, we've solved our greatest design challenges. We've stood up entire supply chains.... And so it's time to cash in on our investments by building more. More of these facilities. The Department of Energy's Loan Programs Office stands ready to help, with hundreds of billions of dollars in what we call Title 17 loans... Since the President signed the Inflation Reduction Act and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, companies across the nation have announced 29 new or expanded nuclear facilities — across 16 states — representing about 1,600 potential new jobs. And the majority of those projects will expand the domestic uranium production and fuel fabrication, strengthening these critical supply chains...

Bottom line is, in short, we are determined to build a world-class nuclear industry in the United States, and we're putting our money where our mouth is.

America's Energy Secretary told the Washington Post that "Whether it happens through small modular reactors, or AP1000s, or maybe another design out there worthy of consideration, we want to see nuclear built." The Post notes the Energy department gave a $1.5 billion loan to restart a Michigan power plant which was decommissioned in 2022. "It would mark the first time a shuttered U.S. nuclear plant has been reactivated."

"But in this country with 54 nuclear plants across 28 states, restarting existing reactors and delaying their closure is a lot less complicated than building new ones." When the final [Georgia] reactor went online at the end of April, the expansion was seven years behind schedule and nearly $20 billion over budget. It ultimately cost more than twice as much as promised, with ratepayers footing much of the bill through surcharges and rate hikes...

Administration officials say the country has no choice but to make nuclear power a workable option again. The country is fast running short on electricity, demand for power is surging amid a boom in construction of data centers and manufacturing plants, and a neglected power grid is struggling to accommodate enough new wind and solar power to meet the nation's needs...

As the administration frames the narrative of the plant as one of perseverance and innovation that clears a path for restoring U.S. nuclear energy dominance, even some longtime boosters of the industry question whether this country will ever again have a vibrant nuclear energy sector. "It is hard for me to envision state energy regulators signing off on another one of these, given how badly the last ones went," said Matt Bowen, a nuclear scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, who was an adviser on nuclear energy issues in the Obama administration.

The article notes there are 19 AP1000 reactors (the design used at the Georgia plant) in development around the world. "None of them are being built in the United States."

Is Nuclear Power in America Reviving - or Flailing?

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  • Solar panels continue to drop in price.
    Batteries continue to drop in price.
    It's likely than in less than a decade rooftop solar+batteries will be cheaper than just delivering the electricity.

    All centrally generated power is doomed.

    • Solar panels are dropping in price, but the installation costs are not.

      The installation cost for residential rooftop solar is often more than the cost of the panels.

      • by Sique ( 173459 )
        With enough solar panel demands, you also get systems which are more easy to install. The current generation of solar panels is already much easier to deploy than the models 10 or even 20 years ago.

        In Europe, the Balcony Panel is all the rage. Just hang the panels down your balcony, plug the power into one wall outlet, and you are done. For electrical security reason, this is limited to 800 Watt, but still, you get solar power you can install yourself.

        • reverse feeding outlets is obscenely dangerous and stupid. I don't believe for a second that any remotely developed country would allow that in their code.

          • Every single European country has legalized reverse feeding low wattage solar into the home using regular sockets.

            What are all these regulators missing! What is so dangerous and cannot be mitigated?

            • by Sique ( 173459 )
              Maybe the U.S. grid system is not able to handle reverse feeding. But that's an U.S. problem, not one for countries with a better grid.
      • Obviously. The installation cost of a fake tooth into your mouth is also more than the tooth. Even if the tooth/inlay/crown: is pure gold.

      • Solar panels are dropping in price, but the installation costs are not.

        Citation please.
        According to https://earthtechling.com/solar-energy-costs-trends/ [earthtechling.com] Installation costs are dropping, and have been for quite awhile.

        We haven't really explored what's possible in reduced installation costs yet.

        Imagine a free standing solar-pergola -- basically a tent with solar panels for a roof.
        Not because the parts are cheaper, but because installation is cheap, and easy enough that a home owner could do it themselves.

    • Solar panels continue to drop in price. Batteries continue to drop in price. It's likely than in less than a decade rooftop solar+batteries will be cheaper than just delivering the electricity.

      All centrally generated power is doomed.

      I'd love to just generate my own power and not depend on a grid, but all I can say to your homily there is "highly doubtful".

      Economies of scale and the need for distributed reliability don't disappear just because you want them to.

    • All centrally generated power is doomed.

      Not if they can lock us into long-term contracts for incredibly expensive power plants with multi-decade lifecycles. That's the future baby.

    • Actual numbers from the real world suggest otherwise.

      Length of December day at 47 degrees N, is 8 hours. Lose another hour due to horizon slop.

      Probability of a clear day, 2 out of 31. Capacity factor of PV under normal overcast conditions, 7%. Outdoor temperature 15 F nights, 25 F days.

      Worst case last January, capacity factor of PV 4.6% of nameplate, outdoor temperature -5 F. Grid power demand at the time (about 10:30 AM) 11,400 MW. Since you are on slash dot you should be able to do the math for the number

    • All centrally generated power is doomed.

      That's great for us rich folks in the suburbs. With huge lots and expansive roofs on which to locate solar. But what about the poor people in cities, resigned to living in commie blocks? A poor ratio of roof to living square footage. And you can't mount solar on walls because, with the demise of interspersed open space (parking lots), walls are in continual shade. Oh yeah. The heat load of high rises is greater (occupied volume vs envelope surface area), so we need that roof for air conditioning equipment.

      • There is something called "community solar", which my utility happens to offer among many others. The panels are in a solar farm, where they are cheap and easy to install vs rooftops. You lease or buy a block of panels. Whatever they produce is subtracted from your residential meter reading. This works for tenants, and also people like me who own a house, but have nice big shade trees I don't want to cut down. I live in the Atlanta area, shade trees are good. They lower the air temperature substantia

    • by hey! ( 33014 )

      And, to quote John Kenneth Galbraith, in the long run we're all dead. We need solutions that can will make a dent in our carbon footprint in the next two decades.

  • The nuclear industry has certainly tried to pep up it's image, and it's been quite successful in the image department. Multiple people quote the "Facts" that Chernobyl "wasn't that bad a disaster". Ignoring that tens of thousands of people lost their home and an entire region of Ukraine is uninhabitable. Quoting industry nonsense that "not that many people died" when recent cancer studies clearly show it's likely easily the greatest loss of life due to an increase in cancer rates of any industrial disaster
    • by rsilvergun ( 571051 ) on Saturday June 08, 2024 @08:27PM (#64534367)
      if Americans didn't love privatizing extremely risky endeavors and keeping quarterly revenue up so much. That's a social/political problem, but it's not one we've shown any interest in solving.
    • Re: (Score:2, Informative)

      by Enigma2175 ( 179646 )

      The nuclear industry has certainly tried to pep up it's image, and it's been quite successful in the image department. Multiple people quote the "Facts" that Chernobyl "wasn't that bad a disaster". Ignoring that tens of thousands of people lost their home and an entire region of Ukraine is uninhabitable. Quoting industry nonsense that "not that many people died" when recent cancer studies clearly show it's likely easily the greatest loss of life due to an increase in cancer rates of any industrial disaster in human history by an order of magnitude: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/p... [nih.gov]

      Your link includes nothing about deaths from Chernobyl, it's a study looking at the prevalence of cancer in people previously diagnosed with thyroid cancer in areas affected by Chernobyl. It has no data at all on mortality. Not all cancer leads to death and most of the Chernobyl excess cancers are thyroid cancer (due to the bulk of the contamination being from iodine-131) which is highly treatable if detected early (>99.5% survival rate). Greatly increased screening in these areas have made it so almo

      • He did not claim a ton of death, I told you about high cancer rate. Which you confirmed.
        A friend of mine had toroid cancer. Which funnily - not so funny for her - got treated with radiation therapy. She lost all her big back teeth to it. The bone is to weak to make implants. Will take years until it can be done.

        She does not dare to smile.

        The estimate by _russian_ scientists is, that abut 2million to 4million people died to Chernobyl. Mostly because the food sourced in Ukraine was mixed into uncontaminated f

        • He did not claim a ton of death, I told you about high cancer rate. Which you confirmed.

          Yes he did, he said this:

          recent cancer studies clearly show it's likely easily the greatest loss of life due to an increase in cancer rates of any industrial disaster in human history by an order of magnitude

          "Greatest loss of life" sure sounds like a claim of "a ton of death" to me.

          The estimate by _russian_ scientists is, that abut 2million to 4million people died to Chernobyl

          I notice you didn't provide a citation for that, even though your sig says "Unite Behind the Science". A lot of people have really high estimates but when scientists look at ACTUAL deaths and ACTUAL cancers they never can seem

    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by Kokuyo ( 549451 )

      The economics of nuclear are bad to a large degree because we've made them so by regulating the everliving hell out of it. Not just do we make the building process a nightmare to get the nod from government, it takes the west far longer than it has to.

      Seeing as these projects are never paid out of pocket, there's considerable loan interest to be paid during that time, further making these projects more expensive than necessary.

      On top of that, we've been pussyfooting around the concept so much that we do not

    • Multiple people quote the "Facts" that Chernobyl "wasn't that bad a disaster".

      What kind of bizarre alt-reality do you live in?

      No one claims this. Literally no one.

      What I want to know is what the fuck Chernobyl has to do with nuclear power in the west? It's never been legal to build a plant like that in the west, and the absence of nuclear power in the west won't stop another regime from building really stupid power plants.

      This is one of the reasons nuclear is so expensive: apparently every power plant is n

      • No one claims this. Literally no one.
        You are not long enough on /. /. is full with posts explaining: it was not so bad ...

        • If I'm not long enough on slashdot, then no one has made a post claiming that in 20 years.

          Anyway, I think you are making it up.

    • ... recent cancer studies clearly show it's likely easily the greatest loss of life due to an increase in cancer rates of any industrial disaster ...

      Be that as it may, annual deaths in Europe due to air pollution by industry and transportation is estimated at around half a million people. Sure, that's not due to an industrial disaster, but one number results in a higher death and reduced health count than the other. Chernobyl sucked and sucks, but so do other things.

  • Flailing (Score:5, Informative)

    by aaarrrgggh ( 9205 ) on Saturday June 08, 2024 @06:52PM (#64534195)

    $40B comes out to a capital LCOE of $0.16/kWh. In rough terms that means the total wholesale operating cost of energy is in the $0.35-0.40/kWh range. (That assumes that decommissioning cost is equal in dollar terms to the construction cost today, 30 years from now.)

    If you want to make nuclear viable you need to get that capital LCOE down by about 75%. You can save about half that with extremely streamlined permitting process, but the balance of the delta needs to come from construction efficiency improvements. The only way to do that is with less material (less total mass) and tremendous simplification of systems.

    Then you are going to need to improve operations and fuel cost to get them down as well, likely by about 50%.

    This isn't an easy problem to solve, and it is not something that is magically going to happen building another 12 of them. (Using the same construction requirements and assuming that materials and labor rates remain constant you might gain 10-15% efficiency after 12.)

    • We can also try building more than say 2 every 40 years, you have to continue doing something to refine a process. I actually don't think it is a hard process, as you mentioned this is more of an issue of political will and we're only starting getting some of that recently

      • If you are lucky that will reduce construction cost by 10%. You need more fundamental changes. You are plagued by mega-project syndrome with any reactor today-- a Bechtel or whomever cannot pull off 10 at the same time because of the capital risk and duration. You really need modular prefabrication of major components, so that things can be automated more, but radiation poses a few challenges there.

        • But that's what you need to learn by doing, everything is great on paper until you start building it. Your exact scenario though is why I really think we should just accept that these things are going to be large public projects, pretty much what TVA does. You correctly mention the private capital just isn't there especially today when renewables give such a faster ROI so let the market do that and the public can do nuclear. I think the French whose system is not perfect but they have the right idea. Jus

    • It's expensive for regulatory reasons, because the regulator's safety demands are basically unlimited.
  • But not before renewables + batteries have already fully deployed.

    So, possibly, even if fusion is everything it's hoped to be, it won't see commercial success due to renewables arriving first.

    • Do you think solar could see mass adoption. by the 2050s? I doubt it. Solar cell production has peaked and that's a rate in terms of annual GWh nowhere near enough to replace all the coal plants until about 100 years. IF funding isn't pulled .. as it always has happened to fusion .. then it could be viable by the 2050s. (2030 - ITER proves fusion is viable as an energy source, 2040s DEMO proves fusion is viable economically, 2050s for-profit commercial reactors start being built). This is all based on fundi

      • World solar production capacity is nearing terawatt per year (mostly China obviously). Whether it's peaked depends on whether demand has peaked. Low hanging fruit is gone (ie. saving on gas and to a lesser extent coal when the sun shines) and western nations are balking at investing in the necessary TWh scale storage ... but if they want to get to net zero they have to commit, full nuclear or full renewable with massive storage. They aren't complementary and both require massive investments.

        At 1 TW installe

  • Look how much was spent on a single fission plant. Given the potential payouts, it is worth spending multiple billions per year on fusion. There should literally be no lack of funding in fusion and that is not the case:

    Congress would fund $630 million for Inertial Confinement Fusion, a $50 million increase over 2022, of which at least $380 million will go to funding the NIF. Put together, the $1.4 billion funding for fusion will be a record amount from the U.S. government. It is also less than is needed to

  • I have followed nuclear power with interest ever since high school (long story). I always thought that if used responsibly, it could have been (and still may be) a source of energy that under certain circumstances can be a good (though not really long-term) element of energy policy. Of course, there is a lot of dumb-assery and criminal behavior all over the world. Humans do not do "responsible" really well, do we?

    Why do I say "perspective"? Right now around 7 million people a year are estimated to die from

    • BTW, when I remember how Germany pulled the plug on nuclear in a panic after Fukushima
      Then you remember wrong. You could google it though.

      and then compensated by burning a lot more lignite
      Then you remember double wrong.
      Germany is probably on the lowest lignite burning level, it ever was.

  • by iAmWaySmarterThanYou ( 10095012 ) on Saturday June 08, 2024 @08:57PM (#64534399)

    https://www.eia.gov/todayinene... [eia.gov].

    1-2 new plants coming online since the 90s isn't a hugely growing industry.

    • https://www.eia.gov/todayinene... [eia.gov].

      1-2 new plants coming online since the 90s isn't a hugely growing industry.

      This is like inventing a new thing and calling it the "fastest growing thing". Yeah1-2 plants coming online in the past few years is HUGE GROWTH, ... compared to the preceding 30 years ;-)

  • Net zero in 2050 requires central planning and renewable and nuclear aren't complementary, just commit ... a TW of nuclear or a couple TW of solar with a PWh of seasonal hydrogen storage and a TW of hydrogen generators/electrolyzers.

    • "central planning" ? No it doesn't need central planning. Not unless you want it to fail and benefit a select few.

  • Since the primary consumer of time and money with nuclear construction is the repeated lawsuits trying to stop it, it'd be better to build nuclear plants on barges in other countries and tow them in. That way there's a greatly reduced number of lawsuits before the plant starts providing power. Also, build the Navy a "strategic nuclear tugboat," so the towing can go really quickly.
    • Since the primary consumer of time and money with nuclear construction is the repeated lawsuits trying to stop it,
      You want to tell us, a law suit hindering a 30billion construction of a plant costs more than 15billion? Aka is more than half the cost?

      Hm ...

      • by hey! ( 33014 )

        People would rather have a simple intuitive explanation than one supported by actual data.

      • The biggest cost is when work stops and after it starts up again, what is necessary for regulatory compliance is different than it was during the planning stage of the project. That's why the actual cost of many previous plants has been more than double the initial estimate of cost. However, you're correct that the current biggest forseen cost is regulatory compliance ( https://ifp.org/nuclear-power-plant-construction-costs/ [ifp.org] ) Also, delays haven't been only because people sued to stop construction or regu
  • Have we constructed TWO of the same plant? To the same plans? Without any stark raving insanity like changing the approved plans two dozen times during construction? Drawing on the same pool of skilled labor from building earlier plants?

    No? Then it's flailing hopelessly because the above is the absolute bar-is-a-bump-in-the-floor minimum for any sort of large building project like this to not be flailing horribly.
  • If Desantis wants to do something useful for a change, he should push to get nuclear power plants built near Clewiston, Palatka, Cedar Key, and EPCOT.

    Afaik, Cedar Key is already approved as a site... Florida just needs to convince FPL's nuclear-plant subsidiary to go through with it. Cedar Key was *supposed* to be the replacement for the damaged Crystal River reactor.

    EPCOT's nuclear plant was promised ~50 years ago. Hold Disney to it.

    Palatka was originally approved as a site, then they gave in to the NIMBYs

  • by crabel ( 1862874 ) on Sunday June 09, 2024 @06:42AM (#64535029)
    Nuclear power power has high costs (construction, maintenance, fuel, decommissioning). The usual calculations assume at least 30, often 40 or 50 years of service life, generating a net profit after 15 - 30 years (some sources even claim it is never profitable). I don't even want to discuss these numbers, that's not even my point. The main "problem" I see is the price and growth of solar power. In Germany, in several summer months the price of electricity drops below zero during the day (in 2020 it was 300 hours with negative pricing already), since solar systems produce a lot more than is needed, especially at noon. This already has started to affect the nuclear industry in France, who already had to decrease their nuclear energy output during the day. (You can find data about this eg. here https://energy-charts.info/cha... [energy-charts.info] ). That effect wasn't there at all in 2020, but go a few years into the future, the effect will increase and even though it mostly affects the summer months, it will make nuclear power even less attractive in the future. Please note that you can't quickly turn nuclear power plants on and off and when you turn them off, it is costly. On top of that, batteries have become really cheap. I am actually pondering buying a little system myself, it should pay off in a few years AND make me mostly independent in the summer months. Enough storage to get me through the night. When it rains a few days and in winter, I need utilities, sure. What I don't see yet is a nice solution for the winter months, but using nuclear power only in winter is not attractive commercially. So, building new plants feels quite risky to me.

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