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United Kingdom Politics

Labour Party Set for Landslide Win in UK Election (nytimes.com) 278

Britain's Labour Party was projected on Thursday evening to win a landslide election victory, sweeping the Conservative Party out of power after 14 years, in a thundering anti-incumbent revolt that heralded a new era in British politics.

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak accepted defeat Friday, and said he had called Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, to congratulate him.

The New York Times: Partial results, and an exit poll conducted for the BBC and two other broadcasters, indicated that Labour was on course to win around 405 of the 650 seats in the British House of Commons, versus 154 for the Conservatives. If the projections are confirmed, it would be the worst defeat for the Conservatives in the nearly 200-year history of the party, one that would raise questions about its future -- and even its very viability. Reform U.K., an insurgent, anti-immigration party, was projected to win 4 seats but a significant share of the vote, a robust performance that came at the expense of the Conservatives.

The exit poll, which accurately predicted the winner of the last five British general elections, confirmed the electorate was thoroughly fed up with the Conservatives after a turbulent era that spanned austerity, Brexit, the Covid pandemic, the serial scandals of Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the ill-fated tax-cutting proposals of his successor, Liz Truss. While a Labour victory had long been predicted -- it held a double-digit polling lead over the Conservatives for more than 18 months -- the magnitude of the Tory defeat will reverberate through Britain for months, if not years.
Further reading: Financial Times; BBC, and The Guardian.

Labour Party Set for Landslide Win in UK Election

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  • Not dead yet? (Score:5, Interesting)

    by ClickOnThis ( 137803 ) on Friday July 05, 2024 @01:02AM (#64601693) Journal

    From TFS:

    If the projections are confirmed, it would be the worst defeat for the Conservatives in the nearly 200-year history of the party, one that would raise questions about its future -- and even its very viability.

    Really? Other parties in other countries have fared far worse and have risen from the ashes to govern again. Take for example the Progressive Conservative party in Canada, after the Mulroney years. They went from forming the government to having only 2 seats in the House of Commons, and losing their official party status in that chamber. It took some years, some merging (with Reform IIRC) and some rebranding (to the (new) Conservative party) but they eventually formed a government led by Stephen Harper.

    [Disclosure: I'm no big fan of conservatives. I'm just pointing out that their demise is unlikely.]

    • Thatâ(TM)s a bit of a whataboutism. Itâ(TM)s also not very accurate: the Progressive Conservative Party of Canada (PC) voted to dissolve itself in 2003. The Alliance party had about six times as many seats in parliament at the time, making any merger a takeover by them and the resultant party an Alliance child, not a reinvention of the PCs. They then happened to change their name to Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), which bears only similarity in name to the defunct PC party.

    • by shilly ( 142940 )

      There's a big difference between parties of the right surviving, and the Conservatives surviving. The Progressive Conservatives have not survived as a political force in Canada in any meaningful sense. They were wiped out and the remnants subsumed. But of course, right-leaning political parties continued in Canada.

      • on the national level you mean. there are several provincial level Progressive Conservative (PC) parties - not that the label means much, but those parties don't have the more radical Reform elements in control

        • by shilly ( 142940 )

          Yes, I mean on the national level. More generally, I'm saying it's rare but not unknown for a political party to cease to exist as a meaningful force in democracies around the world, and it appears to be happening more frequently in the last couple of decades too.

    • Indeed, the UK situation is very similar to Canada's. The conservatives lost seats because the new UK Reform party split their vote - looking at the share of votes it is clear that voters switched from the Tories to reform, and not Labour although it let Labour win in many places. The same thing happened on a smaller scale in Alberta with the Tories and Wild Rose parties.

      I suspect that the result will be similar in the UK: merger between the parties with a the resulting party have a lurch to the right co
      • Kinda... yes the Farage ego party split the vote but it was only splittable to that degree because the Tories have fucked up so hard for so long.

        The policies of austerity and Brexit are biting really reality hard now, and the liner it goes on the harder it is to ignore the decline. Truss figured the economy and Johnson epitomized the utter disregard for the public.

        Farage tried before but didn't split the vote remotely to this extent.

        Reform isn't going to disappear for a while. The country is in the shitter

  • Go crawling back to the EU, begging for forgiveness.

  • US ppl take note.

    UK has around 67-70 million ppl. It's 'house' has 650 seats. 1 Rep for ~100,000 people

    US has 330 million and only 435 house seats. 1 Rep for ~750,000 people.

    If you wonder why your US Rep generally doesn't listen to you...it's because they represent more people than some US States.

    • by thegarbz ( 1787294 ) on Friday July 05, 2024 @03:07AM (#64601829)

      It also helps that the voting system allows for voting of minor parties to represent people. The US has a bigger issue right now, and it's that neither party is actually any good and yet they are the only two options on the ballot that don't involve literally throwing out your vote.

      • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 ) on Friday July 05, 2024 @05:21AM (#64602051) Homepage Journal

        Our system is first-past-the-post, which is probably the worst system in use in any major democracy except the US. It produces poor outcomes and makes it very hard for smaller parties to gain traction.

        Our media is shit as well. Both the Greens and Reform got 4 seats, but Reform got 20x as much air time because their leader is a frog faced wanker. The only other smaller party that did well, the Lib Dems, spent the entire election campaign doing stunt after stunt just to get the cameras to look at them for a few seconds. Literal stunts, with their leader doing extreme sports and other nonsense.

        • by ghoul ( 157158 )
          Reform got twice as many votes as Green. In fact they got more votes than Lib Dems but the Lib Dems won 70 seats to Reform's 4.
          If UK had proportional representation like Europe does than Reform would have won 50+seats.
          There is a reason the UKIP had more representation in the European parliament than in Westminster. EU elections use proportional representation.
          So, NO, the Green party is not as relevant as the Reform party and YES, UK is full of xenophobic twats. One in 6 voted for Reform. That tells yo
          • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

            But how much better would the Greens do if we had PR and people felt that voting for them wasn't a vote wasted?

            Reform only do well because of stupid voters who respond well to their populism and don't understand how FPTP works. Most potential Green voters probably do understand that voting Green only serves to make it easier for the Tories to win.

  • Brexit was a disaster long coming, kicked off by Thatcher and her inane euro-bashing intended to distract from her neo-con agenda in leaving the workers of the industrial age out on their luck and little else. This labour victory is some solace, but the problems won't just vanish. Not only has the UK lost its access and influence with the European continent, it is also facing the same headwind that every other nation is facing: demographic tilt, ever more pressing need for a general eco-turnaround, dwindlin

    • by shilly ( 142940 )

      Thatcher did indulge in some Euro bashing, true, but she was also instrumental in constructing the Single Market. My dad was a small businessman Tory who was grateful to Thatcher for having new opportunities to win work in Germany and Austria based on exactly that.

  • In my view, the biggest challenge the incoming government is going to have to face, is whose interests it chooses to serve -- young or old. By young, I actually mean the under 65s, ie the population where Labour commanded majority of support, as opposed to the over 65s, where they didn't, but where they focused efforts to win over as many switchers as they could. They can't serve both at all times, because the interests of each group massively diverge on housing, on infrastructure, on education, etc etc. So

  • by Bruce66423 ( 1678196 ) on Friday July 05, 2024 @03:37AM (#64601883)

    As proportions of the vote, the Labour vote barely shifted, and almost all of their gain was in Scotland. What gave them this massive majority in the Commons on the basis of less than 34% of the vote is the collapse of the Conservative vote as a party who has been in power too long finally ran out of ideas and time.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ele... [bbc.co.uk]

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ele... [bbc.co.uk]

    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 ) on Friday July 05, 2024 @05:15AM (#64602035) Homepage Journal

      I think that's being too generous. The Tories didn't just run out of ideas, they botched it.

      Brexit was a disaster. COVID killed over 230,000 people and crippled many more, many of the Tory voters. Their immigration policy was both a disaster and utterly inhumane and cruel.

      And most of all, the wrecked the economy. Between the outright plundering and the utter incompetence of people like Liz Truss, who was selected by the party and not the electorate, they really made people suffer.

      They also failed to deal with the rise of UKIP, sorry I mean Reform Ltd. They could never beat them as being far right racists and populists, it was the wrong response.

      I just hope Labour understand this and make an effort to appeal to the people they abandoned now.

      • by shilly ( 142940 ) on Friday July 05, 2024 @05:37AM (#64602085)

        Don't forget the wrecking of public services and infrastructure, too! Literally everything broken: healthcare, justice, police, roads, rail, water, schools, universities, social care, local authorities, housing, they even fucked up the CfDs for renewables. I cannot think of a single public service or national infrastructure that's in better shape now than in 2010. Not one.

        • A visit to Reading Station and a trip on the Elizabeth line will remind you that some things are a lot better than they were. And they've finally got rid of the Pacer trains whose persistence in the North was a long term reminder that the North was persistently ignored whilst the South got all the new toys. And actually my local hospital is expanding slowly but surely...

          But yes, it's true that a lot of things have gone bad. What's hard is to accept that there are almost no counter examples out there of majo

      • Don't forget partygate. There is and will likely remain for a long time a huge amount of deep seated bitterness from people saying their final farewell to loved ones over zoom while Johnson and co ignored their own rules and partied on.

        It's also the kind of deeply personal insult which cuts cleanly across party lines.

        Liz Truss,

        And she lost her seat! PM since the last election lost her seat! Aaaaaaahahahahahahahaha.

        I just hope Labour understand this and make an effort to appeal to the people they abandoned

  • by ghoul ( 157158 ) on Friday July 05, 2024 @03:45AM (#64601889)
    Lib Dems with 3 million votes have won 71 seats and Reform party with 4 million votes have won only 4 seats. If Britain had proportional representation like Europe instead of FPTP like the US, the news would be talking of a far right win in the UK.
    • by Phillip2 ( 203612 ) on Friday July 05, 2024 @04:41AM (#64601981)

      If we had proportional representation people would have voted differently, so the numbers don't translate in the way that you think.

      The Green Party also got 2 million. They don't get much news coverage because, unlike Farage, they put across a thoughtful and considered point of view; rather than being barnstorming and rude.

      There hasn't been a move to the right, there has been a much wider spread. With PR we would have seen a lot more than that.

      • by shilly ( 142940 )

        Bingo. Had the Tories been elected in 2015 on the back of PR, Cameron wouldn't have needed to placate old twats' bigotry with Brexit and immigration xenophobia, because old twats wouldn't have been essential to winning the election. For the same reason, Labour would have been able to have a policy offer for people under 65 in this election, because again, old twats and their bigotry would have been much less important.

      • There was a spectacular car crash of an interview with a Green spokesperson on Radio 4. The interviewer shredded her over the fact that they had no coherent policy to raise the money to do their very expensive policies - so much so that she resorted to complaining that she'd come on to talk about a particular Green policy.

        Unfortunately the British Greens are an avowedly left wing party, endorsing all sorts of fashionable issues like gender self identification and easy access for young teenagers to puberty b

        • The Greens want to raise taxes.

          That's a more coherent idea than what Labour have which is to fix shit without doing anything new.

      • by dsanfte ( 443781 )

        The Green Party in the UK has had some real clangers over the past few months. Like their candidate in the locals shouting Allahu Akbar:

        https://www.telegraph.co.uk/ne... [telegraph.co.uk]

        They're still a fringe joke, on the other side of the horseshoe from Reform.

  • Labour's vote share is up all of 1.7%; this landslide result is because the Conservatives have fallen 20%. Labour's total votes are 9.6 million, less than the dreaded Corbyn election in 2019 when they were clobbered with 'only' 10.2 million votes. Democracy is a funny old game. The worst form of government, except for all the others.
    • by shilly ( 142940 )

      That analysis masks voter flows and the importance of efficiency in FPTP. Labour had a stark choice: offer policies to fire up the base, or win (or at least don't lose) the swing. They did the latter, which means that the base was disheartened and many stayed away, some switched to Green or the odd independent candidate, but that didn't matter because Labour could lose those votes without losing (many) seats, because they were in places where Labour had lots of votes to lose already (seats with a lot of the

    • Labor's vote percentage has only changed by 1% and most of it is in Scotland where SNPs vote percentage fell by the same amount.
      The actual story is that the Xenophobic twats who are the Conservative base could not stomach a non white PM and punished them by voting Reform.
      Its Reform who has gone up by 12% while Conservatives have gone down by the corresponding 12%.
  • No more refugees waiting in Calais? Will the Jews be expelled? Are people like J K Rowling being rounded up? Will Britain resubmit to the rule of Brussels?

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