Zambia Faces a Climate-Induced Energy Crisis (apnews.com) 37
Zambia has the largest man-made lake in the world, reports the Associated Press — but a severe drought has left the lake's 128-meter-high (420-feet) dam wall "almost completely exposed". This leaves Kariba dam without enough water to run most of its hydroelectric turbines — meaning millions of people in Zambia now face "a climate-induced energy crisis..."
The water level is so low that only one of the six turbines on Zambia's side of the dam is able to operate, cutting generation to less than 10% of normal output. Zambia relies on the dam for more than 80% of its national electricity supply, and the result is Zambians have barely a few hours of power a day at the best of times. Often, areas are going without electricity for days... The power crisis is a bigger blow to the economy and the battle against poverty than the lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic, said Zambia Association of Manufacturers president Ashu Sagar.
Africa contributes the least to global warming but is the most vulnerable continent to extreme weather events and climate change as poor countries can't meet the high financials costs of adapting. This year's drought in southern Africa is the worst in decades and has parched crops and left millions hungry, causing Zambia and others to already declare national disasters and ask for aid...
Zambia is not alone in that hydroelectric power makes up over 80% of the energy mix in Mozambique, Malawi, Uganda, Ethiopia and Congo, even as experts warn it will become more unreliable. "Extreme weather patterns, including prolonged droughts, make it clear that overreliance on hydro is no longer sustainable," said Carlos Lopes, a professor at the Mandela School of Public Governance at the University of Cape Town in South Africa.
While the lake's water level normally rises six meters after it rains, "It moved by less than 30 centimeters after the last rainy season barely materialized, authorities said...
"Experts say there's also no guarantee those rains will come and it's dangerous to rely on a changing climate given Zambia has had drought-induced power problems before, and the trend is they are getting worse."
Africa contributes the least to global warming but is the most vulnerable continent to extreme weather events and climate change as poor countries can't meet the high financials costs of adapting. This year's drought in southern Africa is the worst in decades and has parched crops and left millions hungry, causing Zambia and others to already declare national disasters and ask for aid...
Zambia is not alone in that hydroelectric power makes up over 80% of the energy mix in Mozambique, Malawi, Uganda, Ethiopia and Congo, even as experts warn it will become more unreliable. "Extreme weather patterns, including prolonged droughts, make it clear that overreliance on hydro is no longer sustainable," said Carlos Lopes, a professor at the Mandela School of Public Governance at the University of Cape Town in South Africa.
While the lake's water level normally rises six meters after it rains, "It moved by less than 30 centimeters after the last rainy season barely materialized, authorities said...
"Experts say there's also no guarantee those rains will come and it's dangerous to rely on a changing climate given Zambia has had drought-induced power problems before, and the trend is they are getting worse."
CO2 and population (Score:3, Insightful)
No doubt global warming (..err climate change) is a big factor in Africaâ(TM)s ability to support the environment and the people, flora and fauna of the continent. But the population growth rate is the biggest factor IMHO. The population pyramid of Zambia is a recipe for suffering.
World populations need to reduce to some sustainable level. Not by 007 moonraker villain methods, but incentivizing , family planning, birth control, etc. much better to invest in birth control in high growth rate areas than another carbon recapture screen.
With current tech a planet stabilized around 5-6 billion people is eminently supportable economically , environmentally, and with a high standard of living for all.
Re: (Score:3)
While true, it is not going to happen without a massive catastrophe. First, you have to get all the religious assholes under control, that deeply desire more victims for their deranged hallucinations, and hence are massively opposed to all forms of population control. The more, the better, and who cares if they suffer. And something like 80% of the planet's population are listening to them in one form or another. Second, you have to get people to accept the fact, blatantly obvious though it is, that 8B is a
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While true, it is not going to happen without a massive catastrophe.
100% this.
I'd argue the catastrophe already started. We just don't realize it yet.
The geographical regions which are sliding towards being barely inhabitable are, incidentally, the regions with the highest population density. I'm talking about China, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, large swaths of Africa, South-Eastern Asia. Also incidentally, the largest (by population) countries in these regions are also nuclear powers.
This will not end well.
Re: (Score:2)
While true, it is not going to happen without a massive catastrophe.
100% this.
I'd argue the catastrophe already started. We just don't realize it yet. The geographical regions which are sliding towards being barely inhabitable are, incidentally, the regions with the highest population density. I'm talking about China, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, large swaths of Africa, South-Eastern Asia. Also incidentally, the largest (by population) countries in these regions are also nuclear powers.
This will not end well.
in agreement, India has added almost two USA's worth of population in around 20 years.
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While true, it is not going to happen without a massive catastrophe.
100% this.
I'd argue the catastrophe already started. We just don't realize it yet.
I do realize it every day. But most of the human race has not, agreed.
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Yes, if the human race collectively was rational, this planet would be a good place for almost everybody and basically forever. But, collectively, the human race fails even to meet low standards of rationality, like accepting extremely obvious things. Hence this is, urgently needed as it is, is not going to happen.
In addition to that which you outlined, as the western world ages itself out of the picture, a pretty clever option for a new group wishing to take over is intensive, prolific breeding
What are a near end of life 85 year olds going to do against an army of 20 year olds?
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That is more of an SF plot, not something to be expected.
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No doubt global warming (..err climate change) is a big factor in Africaâ(TM)s ability to support the environment and the people, flora and fauna of the continent. But the population growth rate is the biggest factor IMHO. The population pyramid of Zambia is a recipe for suffering.
While I actually agree with you, I do want to point out that Africa has half [worldatlas.com] the population density of Europe. So population clearly isn't the only factor.
World populations need to reduce to some sustainable level. Not by 007 moonraker villain methods, but incentivizing , family planning, birth control, etc. much better to invest in birth control in high growth rate areas than another carbon recapture screen.
Agree.
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While I actually agree with you, I do want to point out that Africa has half [worldatlas.com] the population density of Europe. So population clearly isn't the only factor.
Population density isn't actually a relevant metric in the slightest. There are many metrics for judging how resilient a population is, but judging land is pointless. One needs to look at how the social structure is built around the population, and one of the best metrics for that is GDP since even looking after your own citizens without exporting anything is reflected in that figure.
For that you can compare the 20million people of Zambia with their $1,497 USD / capita GDP to the Netherlands 18.9 million pe
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World populations need to reduce to some sustainable level
It is already happening. If you look at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org] most of the world is already below replacement rate. The biggest problems are in Africa, and of the countries listed, only Nigeria has major troubles ahead (the other countries also have high fertility rates, but Nigeria also has a base population of 200+ million - the others are much smaller).
The current fertility rate of the entire world is just a bit over 2 at this point, an
Re: (Score:2)
World populations need to reduce to some sustainable level
It is already happening. If you look at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org] most of the world is already below replacement rate. The biggest problems are in Africa, and of the countries listed, only Nigeria has major troubles ahead (the other countries also have high fertility rates, but Nigeria also has a base population of 200+ million - the others are much smaller).
The current fertility rate of the entire world is just a bit over 2 at this point, and projected to decrease even further.
Better check out India. As noted before, they have added around 2 USA populations in the last 20 years. Yet we still hear about how we're cutting way back on breeding
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Now, if only some smart white people could come up with some kind of pseudo-scientific "solutions" to this problem & make the world a better place... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org] Of course, it'd all need to be administered by people who are racially & morally superior to maintain the "natural order of things." You know, maybe someone like Jan Smuts: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]
Poe's law says I have
Re: CO2 and population (Score:2)
The best way to reduce population growth in a place like that is to reduce child mortality and to introduce family planning option.
But in the current economic situation os most of africa, it won't happen without injection of resources (dollars, infrastructure, training) from the rest of the world.
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The best way to reduce population growth in a place like that is to reduce child mortality and to introduce family planning option. But in the current economic situation os most of africa, it won't happen without injection of resources (dollars, infrastructure, training) from the rest of the world.
Isn't it amazing that whatever the problem is in that part of the world , the fix is always giving them a lot of money. It's like the third world version of trickle down economics, and works just as well - not.
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With current tech a planet stabilized around 5-6 billion people is eminently supportable economically , environmentally, and with a high standard of living for all.
So they can have first world standards for 6 billion people? Every one of us? I'm a bit skeptical
Re: CO2 and population (Score:2)
No long-term planning (Score:3)
That has a tendency to bite a society hard. It has been pretty clear what is coming for about 40 years now.
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Trust gweihir to be victim blaming, despite TFS explicitly pointing out that adapting to this change costs money that these countries simply don't have.
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Trust gweihir to be victim blaming, despite TFS explicitly pointing out that adapting to this change costs money that these countries simply don't have.
In 2013 to 2018, the US sent nearly 300 Billion dollars of foreign aid - half to Africa. https://www.forbes.com/sites/a... [forbes.com]
Tell us - how much money will we need to send? I think the answer is "how much money do we have?"
It is a serious question. Would 5 trillion a year fix the problem>
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Tell us - how much money will we need to send?
None. You're asking the wrong question. How about instead of sending a bit of money to a continent (tell us again how much you sent to Zambia directly), how about you do something to address the fundamental source of the problem instead and stop competing with Canada and Australia to be the biggest western douche-nozzles on this list https://www.worldometers.info/... [worldometers.info]
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Somebody that is not planning for entirely expected things is not a "victim".
The problem is not the climate, its planning (Score:3)
"Zambia relies on the dam for more than 80% of its national electricity supply"
There you have the problem. The planning did not take account the variability of the weather over a period of years or decades. They have produced intermittency, by trying to get more out of their hydro storage than was prudent.
If you are going to use intermittent sources of electricity, you have to be able to deliver supply through the periodic low points. Can be wind, with one or two week calms, can be solar, with overnight total outage, can be hydro, in which case you are limited by rainfall and its highs and lows.
It was fine to use hydro, it was even fine not to have anything else, as long as they kept within safe limits of their drawdown of the hydro. But demand is obviously too high for the system, so they are stuck with three choices:
-- install more hydro
-- install conventional, gas or coal
-- have blackouts
Their problems are due to climate, not climate change, and to having relied on weather dependent generation without planning for intermittency.
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Their problems are due to climate, not climate change,
A climate that hasn't caused a problem to date and yet now has started to is a result of what? I'll give you a hint the word starts with "change" and ends with the dreadful realisation that you just wrote something monumentally silly.
Re: The problem is not the climate, its planning (Score:2)
Choice 4: Install solar. And maybe wind, but mainly lots of solar.
Solar is really cheap these days, but it's intermittent without storage. A hydroelectric dam that can't provide power constantly is a huge energy storage vessel. Solar works best in a sunny drought; hydro best when it's cloudy and rainy. They were made for each other!
Zero contributions but also zero technological dev (Score:4, Interesting)
"Africa contributes the least to global warming"
Well, they also contribute the least to technological progress. You can't single out just the cost and forget the benefit. Africans have some 200 000-400 000 years headstart compared to Europeans and others but haven't made any technological progress since stone tools. How many children died during these hundreds of thousands of years for reasons that were avoidable if the Africans had achieved the same level of development non-Africans done the last 10 000-50 000 years?
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That is just a lame excuse. Africa is 3 times bigger than Europe, and half of Europe was covered with ice 10 000 years ago. Egypt was the bread basket of the Roman empire. The Mediterranean is equally accessible from both Europe and Africa. The Bay of Biscaye is known for its storms and Caesar lost a fleet in England to the tide. The Netherlands became a leading seafaring nation despite the land was more or less below water. How is that for suitable harbours? Where in Europe can you have agriculture without
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Wakanda is what should have happened, but it didn't.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]
That book attempts to explain why, and I don't know the current state of the debate.
So... (Score:3)
Zambia built a dam where there wasn't a lake before, then built the largest man-made lake to 'feed' the dam and run the generators...
Droughts in Africa are a thing, and stock-piling countless acres of water in a drought-prone region seems like a bad idea.
The issue isn't the drought/lack of rain, it's that Zambia chose to build a dam when they should have gone solar or wind to generate electricity. Water is a constant struggle in Africa, basingbtheir economic future on never having a drought again seems like a bad idea...
Time matters (Score:3)
The dam was built in 1959. Neither solar nor large scale wind existed at the time.
yet they are being warned of a wet rainy season (Score:2)
The Centre for Trade Policy and Development (CTPD) has called on government to take timely and appropriate measures in anticipation of above-average normal rainfall in Zambia during the 2024/2025 rainy season.
There have been indications of normal to above-normal rainfall over most parts of Zambia during the 2024/2025 farming season.
CTPD Researcher-Climate Change and Environment, Solomon Mwampikita, says challenges such as flooding increased risks for waterborne diseases, and have often burdened poor communi