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Earth

Trees and Land Absorbed Almost No CO2 Last Year 184

The Earth's natural carbon sinks -- oceans, forests, and soils -- are increasingly struggling to absorb human carbon emissions as global temperatures rise, raising concerns that achieving net-zero targets may become impossible. "In 2023, the hottest year ever recorded, preliminary findings by an international team of researchers show the amount of carbon absorbed by land has temporarily collapsed," reports The Guardian. "The final result was that forest, plants and soil -- as a net category -- absorbed almost no carbon." The Guardian reports: The 2023 breakdown of the land carbon sink could be temporary: without the pressures of drought or wildfires, land would return to absorbing carbon again. But it demonstrates the fragility of these ecosystems, with massive implications for the climate crisis. Reaching net zero is impossible without nature. In the absence of technology that can remove atmospheric carbon on a large scale, the Earth's vast forests, grasslands, peat bogs and oceans are the only option for absorbing human carbon pollution, which reached a record 37.4bn tonnes in 2023.

At least 118 countries are relying on the land to meet national climate targets. But rising temperatures, increased extreme weather and droughts are pushing the ecosystems into uncharted territory. The kind of rapid land sink collapse seen in 2023 has not been factored into most climate models. If it continues, it raises the prospect of rapid global heating beyond what those models have predicted.
"We're seeing cracks in the resilience of the Earth's systems. We're seeing massive cracks on land -- terrestrial ecosystems are losing their carbon store and carbon uptake capacity, but the oceans are also showing signs of instability," Johan Rockstrom, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, told an event at New York Climate Week in September.

"Nature has so far balanced our abuse. This is coming to an end."
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Trees and Land Absorbed Almost No CO2 Last Year

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  • by stooo ( 2202012 ) on Tuesday October 15, 2024 @02:16AM (#64865231) Homepage

    Exxon predicted this in 1970. Others did too. Nobody did the right thing.

    • by evanh ( 627108 ) on Tuesday October 15, 2024 @02:28AM (#64865243)

      More than that, they actively discouraged of doing the right thing.
      There was political will in 1988 ... Until they created political roadblocks to force us into this path.

      • by gtall ( 79522 ) on Tuesday October 15, 2024 @05:33AM (#64865475)

        They didn't, Conservatives did. When they realized Democrats were advocating for changes to fix the problem, they thought it would be a good idea to politicize it. They could easily sell it to their yokels as, "see, with us, you won't have to change your lifestyle." 'twas but a short step from that to "they do not understand 'America', real Americans do not believe in anthropocentric global warming."

        Now we have a certain political class that wants to return to the beliefs of 60 years ago, when everyone they knew was fat and happy under the feeling that if they believe something, then it is true. It prevents the real world from intruding on their lives.

    • by LindleyF ( 9395567 ) on Tuesday October 15, 2024 @07:02AM (#64865567)
      • by kackle ( 910159 )
        Since this all started when the xkcd guy was born, I can only conclude it's his fault; let's get him!
    • by jmccue ( 834797 ) on Tuesday October 15, 2024 @08:03AM (#64865699) Homepage

      US President Carter in the late 70s tried to get things started to mitigate the issue. But Regan took over in 1981 and undid what little Carter did. Plus he doubled down on fossil fuels. So blame the people who voted GOP the 1980 and in the future for this.

      Granted the Democrats gave up on fixing this when Clinton took over in 1992. Gore did get religion on Climate Change, but SOTUS installed Bush in 2000. So here we are.

      • by serutan ( 259622 )

        There's no sense blaming people for being dumb enough to vote for politicians who hide the truth from them. I think it's more important to fix our problems. But if you really want the ultimate scapegoat it's individuals who manipulate public perception for their own personal gain. That group ranges from uber-powerful media moguls to people who create misleading memes for reddit points.

    • by sg_oneill ( 159032 ) on Tuesday October 15, 2024 @08:37AM (#64865783)

      If we really want to date our fuckery as a species, scientists first started predicting climate instability from carbon in the 1870s when spectography first revealed what CO2 does to IR light alarming industrial chemists that coal and steam industry might have unpleasant effects on the climate. We knew at least the outlines of the problem 150 years ago.

      • by HiThere ( 15173 )

        Sorry, but in the 1870's it wasn't clear whether this was a good thing or a bad thing. (Well, at least not to those living outside the tropics.)

    • by kurkosdr ( 2378710 ) on Tuesday October 15, 2024 @09:33AM (#64865973)
      Nothing surprising here, corporations producing large quantities of ThingX will hire the best scientists to study any negative effects that ThingX may have on humans or the environment (after binding the scientists with NDAs of course). That way, if ThingX has any negative effects on humans or the environment, they have ample time to mount a disinformation campaign and bribe people at key positions before everyone else is even aware a problem exists, essentially being one lap ahead of everyone else. Cigarette companies did it for lung cancer caused by cigarettes, the automotive industry did it for the harmful effects of lead in gasoline, and asbestos producers hired the best doctors to investigate symptoms of asbestosis in workers working in their mines and were aware that it was asbestos that caused it even before the word "asbestosis" existed.

      And yes, Google, Apple, and Facebook most likely already have volumes of data on the negative effects that social media and routine smartphone usage have on children (and possibly adults).

      Binding scientists studying the harmful effects of your products with NDAs should be illegal. In fact, scientists should have a "duty to warn" when they find such things.
    • Yeah but have you seen Clarence Thomas's luxury motor coach? It's pretty sweet. And who wants to ride the train like a poor person surrounded by hobos? Besides walkable cities and public transportation are a globalist plot to control us. Also they're apparently using the Cobra weather dominator down in Florida...
    • by serutan ( 259622 )

      A lot of people did the right things, just not powerful enough people. Activists have been raising hell about CO2 and other emissions since at least the 1960s, long before Antarctic research revealed the hole in the ozone layer in 1985. Offset credits for lead started in the 70s, and were expanded to CO2 starting in 1988. Mark Trexler, one of the drivers behind carbon offsets, said they were largely a philanthropic effort at that time, to get that ball rolling until public policy caught up with reality - wh

  • Seems like an important number at the moment, 420. It does not seem like the concentration of CO2 will go below that number in my lifetime, and it seems like it could 800 ppm of CO2.
  • Take Note (Score:4, Insightful)

    by zeeky boogy doog ( 8381659 ) on Tuesday October 15, 2024 @03:03AM (#64865289)
    Now that the problem is blowing up in our faces, take note of who's been telling you that this is a problem that needs to be dealt with for decades and who's been lying about even the existence of the problem since the beginning.

    Consider carefully and in the near future, hopefully your mob will make the right choice of who to tear limb from limb.
  • I asked Claude. I'm guessing AI will be nuclear powered so discounting it for now.
    Actually, it was the most serious chat I've had with an LLM and I'm impressed.
    While a DOJ page suggested that transportation and industrial use were the biggest fossil fuel using sectors, if you just ask (Claude) about CO2 emissions it was much more enlightening. And Claude creates these little "artifact" documents which is quite useful.
    For one thing, coal and gas power plants overshadow everything else. If you can switch coal

    • > While a DOJ page suggested that transportation and industrial use were the biggest fossil fuel using sectors, if you just ask (Claude) about CO2 emissions it was much more enlightening. And Claude creates these little "artifact" documents which is quite useful.
      For one thing, coal and gas power plants overshadow everything else.

      So do the overshadowing coal/gas emissions also include electricity run industry? How big a consumer of electricity is it? How would time of use pricing affect those industries?

      A

    • A big one is to get rid of food fertilizing with fossil fuel.
      Will not be easy, but we have the means to do it.
      Besides : Halving meat production will free up so much space for new forests it's unbelievable.

      • A bigger one in the future would be elimination of AI data centers. All those nukes they are building to run AI data centers could be used to displace fossil generation that humans are currently using.
    • Interesting, but the answers are fixated on what could cause CO2 reduction in a time scale of one or two years.

      We need more reductions on a longer term scale.

      (It also looked at electrical generation, which is part, but only part, of the total emissions.)

  • Hah ok (Score:3, Insightful)

    by rootb ( 6288574 ) on Tuesday October 15, 2024 @04:02AM (#64865359)
    "Trees and Land Absorbed Almost No CO2 Last Year" This indicates that trees didn't grow last year
    • Re:Hah ok (Score:5, Informative)

      by ShanghaiBill ( 739463 ) on Tuesday October 15, 2024 @04:28AM (#64865387)

      This indicates that trees didn't grow last year

      It means there was no net growth.

      Some trees grew. Others rotted or burned.

      2023 was a record year for forest fires.

      • On the bright side, if we can reduce forest fires, we will be getting a net carbon sink from forests again. And recently burned areas should grow quickly. Not that I'm suggesting we don't also need to reduce CO2 emissions to a sustainable level.
        • by AvitarX ( 172628 )

          I think the concern is that climate change has increased the amount of fires (record hot year) and therefore making it harder to use the forests as a sink.

          • You can also only count on growing so many trees, and that each of those trees is going to have a limit on how much CO2 they can absorb and sequester. And then yes, when you count deforestation, either through human activity or wildfires, even where everything else is equal, you're going to start hitting those limits.

            We keep looking for some sort of Get Out Of Jail free card, some magical solution, whether it's carbon sequestration, tree planting, iron filings in the sea, increasing cloud cover, space mirro

        • by HiThere ( 15173 )

          Unfortunately, newly planted trees have a very high mortality. Most of them are dead within a year or two, because of unfavorable conditions. You'd have more luck turning the newly burned areas into burshland, establishing small groves (giving them sufficient care to get started), and then letting them spread. But that takes a lot of time. (Decades at least.)

      • by eepok ( 545733 )

        Thank you for clarifying what the summary should have. I work in sustainability and my first thought was "This summary is trash because this is not possible". So I did what any Slashdotter would do: I opened the article in another tab, but when to the Slashdot comments first.

        You saved me an article read.

  • by mpercy ( 1085347 ) on Tuesday October 15, 2024 @06:18AM (#64865525)

    Tree continued to grow and forests continued to absorb billions of tonnes of CO2.

    But the natural output of CO2 by said forests has increased so that forests are no longer large net CO2 reducers.

    Forests used to be considered to take up about 2x more CO2 than they emitted: "Forests emitted on average 8.1 billion metric tonnes of carbon dioxide and absorbed 16 billion between 2001 and 2019." but that dynamic is what is being highlighted here.

    • by flink ( 18449 )

      I think forests being carbon sinks is only a short term artifact of the fact that we have so many young forests due to reforestation after the deforestation of the last 500 years. A mature forest is going to have as almost as much gradual CO2 release due to decay as there is capture due to growth, with an occasional rapid release due to fires. The only exception is if there is some mechanism that sequesters organic material before it can rot or burn, like a peat bog, or rivers carrying fallen trees out to

      • So......cut old trees and plant fresh ones is the answer ? I know people in other countries, regular people have started taking matters in their own hands and many plant trees themselves (when the governments do not do it) in spaces previously occupied by trees that have burned down.
        • by Bumbul ( 7920730 )

          So......cut old trees and plant fresh ones is the answer ? I know people in other countries, regular people have started taking matters in their own hands and many plant trees themselves (when the governments do not do it) in spaces previously occupied by trees that have burned down.

          Yes, if those old trees are used/stored in a way that doesn't release the carbon stored in them back in to the atmosphere. There was a recent suggestion to bury that wood: https://sciencemediacentre.es/... [sciencemediacentre.es]

    • by MightyMartian ( 840721 ) on Tuesday October 15, 2024 @09:26AM (#64865949) Journal

      Every bucket has a top, every system has a maximum carrying capacity. This idea that somehow because fossil fuels are relatively cheap and high density energy storage mediums, that thermodynamics somehow is magically suspended is the very core of the magical thinking of defenders of such energy sources. The physical laws of our universe don't care about our economic systems or are short term interests, or hell even our long term interests. Increase the thermal equilibrium of any system, whether a pot of water or the atmosphere and oceans of our planet, and things will heat up (in other words, more energy in the system). To deny it is to basically deny bedrock physical laws we've known about since the 19th century.

      • IMO, except for some core "deniers" with financial interests involved? Nobody thinks this is a situation where you can burn fossil fuels and not increase the thermal equilibrium of the system as a whole.

        The *real* thinking most people have is that the system is massive enough so it can't really be pushed to a "breaking point" just by this one activity.

        And to be fair.... your average person would reason this is so based on simple observation. Volcanic eruptions happen on a regular basis, for example -- and y

    • by King_TJ ( 85913 )

      This is EXACTLY what I came here for clarification about! It makes NO sense to claim that suddenly, for one year, our vegetation collectively stopped absorbing any CO2. It should have all died if that was the case!

      It amazes me how some people are SO desperate to write an article that furthers their agenda or view, that they'll spin it to be this misleading and confusing.

      I'm already "sold" on the idea that we have a climate that's continually warming and that human actions led to an increase in speed of thi

  • First of all, I am a firm believer in the effects of climate change, to the point that I'm very familiar with the Keeling curve [ucsd.edu]. A shift in 8 Gigatons per year should be noticeable, IMHO but I can't see it. Maybe another carbon sink is simultaneously increasing its capture capacity?
    • First of all, I am a firm believer in the effects of climate change, to the point that I'm very familiar with the
      Keeling curve [ucsd.edu]. A shift in 8 Gigatons per year should be noticeable,

      Should it? 8 gigatons is a little over one part per million of the atmosphere. The winter to summer variation is about 6 ppm.

      Looking at the Keeling curve https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/tren... [noaa.gov] the slope is definitely increasing.

      The curve itself doesn't say whether the increase in slope is a decrease in absorption or an increase in emission, but sites I see tend to say emissions aren't increasing (e.g., https://www.carbonbrief.org/an... [carbonbrief.org] . The headline here is misleading; the text says "emissions “are appro

  • by laughingskeptic ( 1004414 ) on Tuesday October 15, 2024 @09:42AM (#64866005)
    It is clear from this paper : https://www.ces.fau.edu/nasa/i... [fau.edu] that temperature is a lagging indicator for the impact of greenhouse gasses. The mass of our atmosphere is small compared to the mass of the ice, oceans and the upper 30m or so of the crust which are all heat sinks for a warming atmosphere. These heat sinks are holding back the planet from being "as warm as it should be based on the current greenhouse gas concentrations" The component that exchanges heat most effectively is melting ice. The mass of our atmosphere is 5.1E+18kg. Just the mass of Antarctica's ice is 24.28E+18 kg. The shape and location of the ice matters as to how effectively it helps offset the heat we are adding to the atmosphere in a given year. As we melt the "easy ice" and become more dependent on the "more compact ice" for keeping the plant cooler than the CO2 equilibrium temperature, the rate of warming would be expected to increase.

    If we held our greenhouse gasses at today's levels, the indicated equilibrium temperature we would reach in a hundred years or so is a couple of degrees C warmer than right now. But we keep making that number bigger and he keep pushing to get there sooner, because the hotter the atmosphere and the bigger the difference between the sink temperatures and the atmospheric temperatures, the faster we heat the sinks and melt the ice.

    We are currently basking in an average world global temperature of 15C, but have set our thermostat to over 17C, fortunately our central heating system sucks and it will take quite a while to get to the temperature we have chosen. But if we don't think we are going to like the temperature we have chosen, then we really should adjust the thermostat downwards. We started paying attention at 13.5C, but rather than immediately adjusting the thermostat, we have been turning it up every year as if we wish the planet were warmer.
    • by HiThere ( 15173 )

      Another factor is that warmer oceans can hold less CO2. I'm not sure we're yet close to when the oceans start emitting the CO2 they've absorbed, but as they approach saturation (partially due to the rising temperature at the surface) they will slow down their rate of absorption.

      That's probably a very big factor, but I've got no idea how big.

      • Yeah, that seems to be a similar phenomenon with a similar time-scale. Perplexity has this to say:

        The equilibration time between the deep ocean and the atmosphere for gases like CO2 is on the order of decades to centuries. This is due to several factors:

        Ocean circulation: Deep water formation and circulation patterns play a significant role in the transport of gases to the deep ocean. Water parcels conserve their properties (heat and inert gases) once they sink into the deep, only resetting these proper

  • Without a single Funny so far.

  • Eric Schmidt, who is not a scientist, says that since we won't meet the climate targets on time anyway, we should just fire up the coal plants so AI can solve the problem. Don't worry about AI not existing yet, it's just a matter of scale says another billionaire who has every one of his bets on the AI train, and is also not a scientist.

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