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AI The Military United States

US Army Should Ditch Tanks For AI Drones, Says Eric Schmidt (theregister.com) 368

Former Google chief Eric Schmidt thinks the US Army should expunge "useless" tanks and replace them with AI-powered drones instead. From a report: Speaking at the Future Investment Initiative in Saudi Arabia this week, he said: "I read somewhere that the US had thousands and thousands of tanks stored somewhere," adding, "Give them away. Buy a drone instead."

The former Google supremo's argument is that recent conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine, have demonstrated how "a $5,000 drone can destroy a $5 million tank." In fact, even cheaper drones, similar to those commercially available for consumers, have been shown in footage on social media dropping grenades through the open turret hatch of tanks. Schmidt, who was CEO of Google from 2001 to 2011, then executive chairman to 2015, and executive chairman of Alphabet to 2018, founded White Stork with the aim of supporting Ukraine's war effort. It hopes to achieve this by developing a low-cost drone that can use AI to acquire its target rather than being guided by an operator and can function in environments where GPS jamming is in operation.

Notably, Schmidt also served as chair of the US government's National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence (NSCAI), which advised the President and Congress about national security and defense issues with regard to AI. "The cost of autonomy is falling so quickly that the drone war, which is the future of conflict, will get rid of eventually tanks, artillery, mortars," Schmidt predicted.

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US Army Should Ditch Tanks For AI Drones, Says Eric Schmidt

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  • by JoshuaZ ( 1134087 ) on Thursday October 31, 2024 @07:53PM (#64910541) Homepage
    The tank being obsolete has been predicted on and off for 100 years no. Soon after they were introduced in World War I, people thought that new defensive setups would stop them from being used. In World War II, the bazooka and similar weapons people thought might make the tank obsolete. Then after World War II, those weapons became improved into the RPG-7 and similar. Then early in the current Russian invasion of Ukraine, even before the very major drone use, some people claimed that the Javelin had rendered tanks obsolete. And now drones. But in all these times, tanks have died to weapons because tanks are still being used because they make sense to use. Both Russia and Ukraine are losing ranks, but they both need to keep using tanks to secure objectives. The idea that drones will replace tanks just doesn't fit with what we are seeing right now.
    • by phantomfive ( 622387 ) on Thursday October 31, 2024 @08:09PM (#64910571) Journal
      In theory, an airplane should have made tanks obsolete. They can shoot the tank, and the tank can't shoot back. They do everything a drone can do.

      A tank will protect you from basically every weapon not specifically intended to stop tanks. Small arms fire, stray artillery, anti-personnel mines. Would you rather cross a mine field in a tank or on foot? Moving forward means tanks. In practice it turns out you need boots on the ground if you want to control territory, and tanks are extremely helpful when it's time to move forward. In a truly modern, combined-arms military, you have anti-aircraft weapons that will hold the airplanes back and destroy drones.

      Drones are an important part of the modern combined-arms battlefield, but so are airplanes, and so are tanks.
      • Even with drones, there are advances like the metal "tents" being welded onto the top which are helping to mitigate blasts from drones, which are having some effect. Eventually, as laser weaponry catches up, tanks will have some defense against drones, if not perhaps having their own drone swarm themselves in the air to automatically intercept anything coming their way.

        Tanks are not going anywhere. Yes, drones used to have the upper hand for a brief bit, but that combat advantage is narrowing. Armies an

        • Russia has prayer technology on their tanks.

          The newest Russian T-14 tank has anti-drone systems [wikipedia.org], but that got cancelled so instead they weld cages onto their tanks and pray (ie, die).
          • The APS on the T-14 is completely worthless against attacks from above. That's why they couldn't field them against a force with ATGMs like the Javelins we've been giving Ukraine, even if they could afford to build them. And they cannot, in part because they are just complicated and expensive and in part because some of those complicated parts have to come from foreign nations which currently aren't sending them anything.

            The Armata tank is a failure which in fact calls the future of tank warfare into question. Note that we still have the same MBT we've had for decades, and haven't built one in decades. Part of that is a testament to how far you can go with upgrades and part of it is just not needing more MBTs because they are less and less useful. When man-portable weapons can kill them they are just too expensive to field.

            You could potentially make them useful again with drone swarms which detect and neutralize anti-tank weapons, but we're talking about needing really seriously large numbers of drones to be even relatively sure you can detect them before they're used and not after.

            Russia is now fielding antiques which don't even have reactive armor, that's how desperate they are for equipment and how little they care for the lives of their soldiers. Those ancient tanks also don't have any crew protection to speak of (Russia is infamous for the lack of it) so once they're penetrated everyone dies.

            • The APS on the T-14 is completely worthless against attacks from above.

              Yeah, but I don't think APS in general should be judged by what the T-14 can do.

      • by quenda ( 644621 )

        It sounds like you are arguing more for Infantry fighting vehicles, and armoured personnel carriers than tanks.

      • The "drones destroy tanks" argument is great if you base just on what's going on in Ukraine. Both sides there are using tanks from the 1990s. In the case of Russia now tanks from the 1960s and apparently they just moved onto T-34s build just after WWII.

        In Lebanon and Gaza there's the same environment in the sense that both sides have huge supplies of drones. You've also got a very similar situation with one side very willing to do fanatical attacks and try to commit genocide whilst What just isn't happening

        • I'm kind of surprised the Gaza war is still going on, though. Israel has had enough time to search every house individually by now.
          • by znrt ( 2424692 ) on Friday November 01, 2024 @12:05AM (#64910963)

            that's per design. the stated goals (defeat hamas and rescue hostages) were never realistically meant to be met. you can't really decisively defeat hamas (a resistance) without cleansing the whole area, and even if you did a new one would spring up. if anything the brutalization will just produce more volunteers. so cleansing it is, which was the actual goal to begin with and will take time. that's good news for netanyahu because the state of "war" keeps him in power anyway. hostages help with that too, any liberation is a pr boost, but they're actually more worth captive, they make an excellent excuse to keep the operation going, proceed with the partition and cleansing (excuse in front of the rest of the world, ofc, much of israel's population seems pretty happy with the genocide). hostages will be dealt with at some point in the future, when "the dust has settled" (if they're still alive, because that might take a while, years maybe).

            i'm not sure the design can work as intended, though. this can't go on indefinitely and might end badly. economy is collapsing, population is starting to flee the country, and lebannon is a completely different story, that's not only about slaughtering civilians or fighting a far inferior but scurry force that can't really hit back (but still, cause quite a bit of trouble). hezbollah can hit back, and israelis are getting their asses handed and still can't stop rockets from pouring into northern israel every single day. on top of that (never mind the houthis) then they take it up with iran to try and drag the us in ... not sure for what, really. the us could (and would) wreck iran indeed but not before iran bombed israel back to the stone age, and then some. bummer. drones don't stop ballistic missiles, and neither does the multi-layered multi-billion dome if saturated, that much has become evident. mind you, it's not that these psychos don't deserve to get wiped off the planet but an all out war in the middle east would surely be a catastrophic event. the irony, who would have imagined the us and iran working together to save the world from these fanatics.

            • this can't go on indefinitely and might end badly. economy is collapsing, population is starting to flee the country, and lebannon is a completely different story,

              This sounds kind of like a fantasy tho.

          • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

            by drinkypoo ( 153816 )

            I'm kind of surprised the Gaza war is still going on, though. Israel has had enough time to search every house individually by now.

            If they wanted to do that, they could have started doing it decades ago and been long done.

            Instead, Netanyahu has made sure that Hamas gets funded [jpost.com] so that he can justify flattening Gaza (and Palestinians) so that Israel can take the land. It's strange that people won't believe evil people when they tell them who they are, but it seems to be true because most of the world appears to be in denial about this when he told us himself.

      • by q_e_t ( 5104099 )
        Vickers in the 1920s managed to create a tank with armour do thin you could knock it out with a standard machine gun...
    • by jythie ( 914043 ) on Thursday October 31, 2024 @08:10PM (#64910573)
      I think people tend to forget that tanks are more than just targets. They have a good point with the economics, and have for quite some time. The cost to build a tank is orders of magnitudes more than the cost to destroy one, so they think in terms of game pieces where rock beats paper and paper can't do much about rock, but that isn't what paper is for. Drones are, at least so far, not very good weapons for making an actual push. If anything, they fill a roll a lot closer to artillery and perhaps could replace that in time.
      • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

        by brunes69 ( 86786 )

        Drones are going to make the Air Force obsolete way before tanks.

        • Drones are a minor side show to modern warfare. Energy weapons are starting to become available as real battlefield weapons. They'll make mince meat of drones.

          What you are seeing is a new weapon that no one has specifically made defenses for. Tanks have had 100+ years of cat n mouse development to become what they are today vs things designed to kill them. The answer was combined armed tactics to keep tanks alive while proving them space to shoot back. Once we start with serious anti-drone defenses you

        • Drones are going to make the Air Force obsolete way before tanks.

          Drones, would logically become part of the Air Force. Not merely stand around waiting to become a target.

          I know everyone like to believe Area 51 has a single extraterrestrial purpose, but we have far more evidence it’s a proving ground for our own advanced defense (and offense) solutions.

    • by 2TecTom ( 311314 )

      one EMP and those old tanks will be making a comeback, can you just imagine getting a blue screen during a battle???

      throw me the latest patch, hurry ...

    • by Cyberax ( 705495 )

      Then early in the current Russian invasion of Ukraine, even before the very major drone use, some people claimed that the Javelin had rendered tanks obsolete. And now drones.

      It kinda is what is happening in Ukraine. Both sides are using tanks more as moveable artillery rather than something that can push through the enemy lines. Russia is using literal infantry meat waves to inch forward.

      It's not at all comparable to WWII, but rather with WWI before the tanks.

  • by Sad_Seraphim ( 5910186 ) on Thursday October 31, 2024 @07:54PM (#64910551)
    Always blows my mind the platform we give people that were good at one random thing but feel the need to tell the armed forces how to do their job. Maybe the tech weenies should a. Do some research and b. Join the military and get qualified. Simplistic assumptions like this are irksome.
    • by MightyMartian ( 840721 ) on Thursday October 31, 2024 @07:59PM (#64910559) Journal

      What's more stunning is that they think they know what the hell they're talking about it. The platform is unearned, but the arrogance and ignorance of their ignorance is on the likes of Schmidt, Musk, et al. Extreme wealth seems toxic to the human mind, replacing curiosity and creativity with hubris.

      • by phantomfive ( 622387 ) on Thursday October 31, 2024 @08:15PM (#64910589) Journal
        Eric Schmidt owns a company selling AI drones. So he's talking as a salesman here, nothing more.
        • Winner! Winner! Chicken dinner!

          This.

      • by gweihir ( 88907 )

        Extreme wealth seems toxic to the human mind, replacing curiosity and creativity with hubris.

        They think they can make money so they know and understand everything. In reality, they are only good at making money, and that is a pretty useless skill for society and often a negative-benefit one.

    • Remember that Eric Schmidt got his job at Google because he went to Burning Man.
    • Always blows my mind the platform we give people that were good at one random thing but feel the need to tell the armed forces how to do their job.

      Maybe the tech weenies should a. Do some research and b. Join the military and get qualified. Simplistic assumptions like this are irksome.

      I'd give the US Military more credit if they'd considered how their GPS guided rockets responded to GPS jamming [interestin...eering.com].

      The US military is in the exact same place as great powers were going into WWI and WWII, they're built to fight the last war not accepting that technology has completely changed the landscape. And yes, those generals who have been war gaming and training on those systems for decades are REALLY reluctant to accept that a lot of what they thought is obsolete.

      In Ukraine the tank is just holding on as

  • Christ... (Score:2, Insightful)

    by Anonymous Coward
    ...not this asshole again.
  • Get rid of infantry, defend your tank with drones instead, and then get rid of tank crews and make your tank another drone.

    There's always a use for the kind of guns that fit on tanks, and even a fairly largish UAV can't carry the same kind of power around. Flight takes a lot of energy and your craft is always exposed while in action.

    Hell, maybe have an ADV - an Armoured Drone Carrier, and instead of firing tank shells, launch drones from your portable base.

    • by iAmWaySmarterThanYou ( 10095012 ) on Thursday October 31, 2024 @09:14PM (#64910713)

      The crew does more than aim and shoot.

      Here's a simple example: your tank throws a tread. The AI can't fix that.

    • Get rid of infantry, defend your tank with drones instead, and then get rid of tank crews and make your tank another drone.

      There's always a use for the kind of guns that fit on tanks, and even a fairly largish UAV can't carry the same kind of power around. Flight takes a lot of energy and your craft is always exposed while in action.

      Hell, maybe have an ADV - an Armoured Drone Carrier, and instead of firing tank shells, launch drones from your portable base.

      Sounds like a great plan. Until you give those drones any level of actual intelligence.

      Thats when they start asking themselves why the hell they’re all fighting each other on a meatless battlefield on behalf of meatsacks.

      After becoming self-aware, they’ll re-brand themselves with an ironic name perfectly suited for the human epitaph.

  • by ZipNada ( 10152669 ) on Thursday October 31, 2024 @08:34PM (#64910635)

    Schmidt's company is "developing a low-cost drone that can use AI to acquire its target rather than being guided by an operator and can function in environments where GPS jamming is in operation", so he probably does know something about this subject. Tanks carry a lot of clout but they are painfully vulnerable to mines, artillery, shoulder-launched missiles, etc. Throw in some bombing by multiple drones that can't be jammed and it does seem like a platform with limited usefulness.

    • Yes, he knows he needs to sell drones at his new drone company.

      He doesn't seem to know anything about modern warfare.

      • Modern warfare is what's happening in Ukraine right now. I think if I was making drones that would operate competitively in that heavily drone-infested conflict, I would be finding out quite a bit about the environment that the typical armchair general doesn't know.

        • Ukraine is post-modern warfare. Real modern warfare involves high altitude bombers levelling cities with impunity, ICBMs, long range cruise missiles, bunker busters, etc. Ukraine is like play-acting war. It's warfare for journalists.

          • Real modern warfare involves high altitude bombers levelling cities with impunity, ICBMs, long range cruise missiles, bunker busters, etc.

            Ukraine has all of that except ICBMs. They have AA to hold back the bombers, but it hasn't always worked [forbes.com].

      • https://www.reuters.com/world/... [reuters.com]

        Ukraine rolls out dozens of AI systems to help its drones hit targets

        KYIV, Oct 30 (Reuters) - Ukraine is using dozens of domestically made AI-augmented systems for its drones to reach targets on the battlefield without being piloted, a senior official said, disclosing new details about the race against Russia to harness automation.

        Systems that use artificial intelligence allow cheap drones carrying explosives to spot or fly to their targets in areas protected by extensiv

  • by iAmWaySmarterThanYou ( 10095012 ) on Thursday October 31, 2024 @09:03PM (#64910685)

    What he should have learned is that combined arms tactics are vastly superior to non-combined arms tactics.

    Ukraine doesn't have the military forces, training, or combat philosophy to do combined arms. Sending a few tanks out without support is crazy town shit. Of course they got demolished. That's not the situation they were built for.

    Modern tanks are supposed to be part of a larger force working together. Air Force over head to control the sky (killing those drones), infantry on the ground to keep enemy infantry from overwhelming them at close range from ambush positions, and other lighter faster vehicles with a variety of offensive and defensive capabilities to allow the tank to do what it does best: blast shit with high powered shells at several kilometer ranges while moving at night and able to take return fire from all but the heaviest incoming fire which is specifically designed to kill tanks.

    Wrong lesson learned from Ukraine.

    Former Google chief apparently has no knowledge or experience of how modern warfare is successfully conducted and should keep his nose on things he understands like privacy rape online and shoving ads down people's throats.

    • What he should have learned is that combined arms tactics are vastly superior to non-combined arms tactics.

      Ukraine doesn't have the military forces, training, or combat philosophy to do combined arms. Sending a few tanks out without support is crazy town shit. Of course they got demolished. That's not the situation they were built for.

      Modern tanks are supposed to be part of a larger force working together. Air Force over head to control the sky (killing those drones), infantry on the ground to keep enemy infantry from overwhelming them at close range from ambush positions, and other lighter faster vehicles with a variety of offensive and defensive capabilities to allow the tank to do what it does best: blast shit with high powered shells at several kilometer ranges while moving at night and able to take return fire from all but the heaviest incoming fire which is specifically designed to kill tanks.

      Wrong lesson learned from Ukraine.

      Former Google chief apparently has no knowledge or experience of how modern warfare is successfully conducted and should keep his nose on things he understands like privacy rape online and shoving ads down people's throats.

      What the hell does the US know about modern warfare? The US hasn't fought a war against a remotely comparable foe since the 1970s.

      I mean, what was the US tactic for dealing with a minefield? Drive through with tanks that could take a mine blast. So what did the Russians do? Start stacking mines.... Damn, I guess someone should have tried that in the war games.

      Sure, not a lot of Ukrainian troops have great combined arms training (though a bunch do now). But how many US troops have combined arms training wher

  • by Eunomion ( 8640039 ) on Thursday October 31, 2024 @09:17PM (#64910719)
    Does he not understand that the experience of running Google has damn near zero relevance to military strategy?
    • by gweihir ( 88907 )

      Obviously he does not. Some people just have no idea about the limits of their skills. Dunning-Kruger left-side case indeed.

  • by 93 Escort Wagon ( 326346 ) on Thursday October 31, 2024 @09:26PM (#64910729)

    What's going on? Why would anyone care about his ideas, one way or the other, on any topic except maybe those regarding Google/Alphabet?

    • by grep -v '.*' * ( 780312 ) on Thursday October 31, 2024 @11:49PM (#64910939)

      Why would anyone care about his ideas,

      He's using the military to get practice. And in a decade or so, the tanks he picked up at a 99.99% discount will be roaming the countryside while wardriving.

      Radio Operator: Sir! Signal detected!
      Commander: Wait for it ....
      RO: They're visiting Duck Duck Go!
      C: Right. At two o'clock, distance 800 meters. Load.
      Infantryman: Loaded!
      C: Aim.
      I2: Target in sight, Ready.
      C: Fire. (BOOOOM.) (Remote explosion.)
      RO: Signal gone. Wait, there's another one! Looks like they're using Bing!
      C: It's a friendly -- they're an ally in The Great Cookie War. Move on, let's see where the next criminals are hiding.

      • ..an ally in The Great Cookie War. Move on, let's see where the next criminals are hiding.

        Move on? You mean more like waddle on.

        Great Cookie War indeed. The keyboard warriors filling up those obese ranks are wondering if it’s chocolate chip or peanut butter.

    • Why would anyone care about his ideas ... ?

      The reason is stated there in black on white in the summary:

      "Give them away. Buy a drone instead."

      His company needs sales and turnover. Simple as that.

    • "any topic except maybe those regarding [lexical analyzers]?"

      FTFY

  • by LuniticusTheSane ( 1195389 ) on Thursday October 31, 2024 @10:22PM (#64910817)
    A drone is a great anti-tank weapon. We have plenty of good anti-tank weapons. Anti-tank weapons cannot replace tanks, because a tank is a multi-role weapon system. It not only destroy things, it sieges enemy fortifications, it takes ground, it defends infantry. Good luck doing that with a DJI Phantom.
    • How many drones can you field for the cost of one tank?

      Drones with shaped charges underneath them can kill tanks, and they can also kill pretty much anything else.

      Drones can also be loaded with firearms, so they can be effective antipersonnel units. Even hobbyists have put firearms on drones and successfully hit targets.

      It keeps getting more expensive to field armor, it keeps getting cheaper to field drones.

      We use tanks because we have a shitload of them. We haven't built any in decades because their utilit

  • Tanks have uses, mostly when popping up to quell civilian protests. They are also good when the turret is removed and repurposed for Electronic warfare or mine clearing. Just that Rommel Tank Formations are extinct outside developing nations or in radiation belts. BTW are there not Lancet variations that fit the bill that Tanks are mostly obsolete. Then ballistic missiles are value . Finally fitting anti-drone missiles on tanks is just a stop-gap measure.
  • One of these days someone is just going to bolt a computer controlled gun on to the top of a tank that will simply destroy any drone that gets anywhere near it. The Israelis already have something close to it.

    • by gweihir ( 88907 )

      Not really. Laser weapons to shoot down things are _old_ tech. They never really worked. Projectile weapons are worse. It is massively more expensive to shoot down a drone than to send one. The Israelis _claim_ they will soon have something like that and they _claim_ it will be cheap per kill. You know what the drones will soon have? Countermeasures. Drones can do a few really nice things that will make fighting them exceptionally hard.

  • ... thousands of tanks stored somewhere ...

    I remember an article some months ago, the USA was selling so much ordnance to Israel and Ukraine, they didn't have enough to invade a country themselves. This is why the USA has a lot of equipment stored somewhere (*cough* Japan *cough*).

  • Some people just do not know when to shut up.

  • Control of territory (Score:4, Interesting)

    by BadDreamer ( 196188 ) on Friday November 01, 2024 @03:32AM (#64911193) Homepage

    War is about taking and defending territory. Drones can't do that. Aircraft can't do that. Infantry, boots on the ground, can do that. And they do it better when they have tanks with them.

    This is the core of warfare since time immemorial, and it has been predicted to be changed at every technologal advance in warfare. And it never has been. At the end of the day, boots on the ground are what matters, and everything else is there to make that happen.

    And as long as that remains the case, tanks have a place.

    • War is about taking and defending territory. Drones can't do that. Aircraft can't do that. Infantry, boots on the ground, can do that. And they do it better when they have tanks with them.

      This is the core of warfare since time immemorial, and it has been predicted to be changed at every technologal advance in warfare. And it never has been. At the end of the day, boots on the ground are what matters, and everything else is there to make that happen.

      And as long as that remains the case, tanks have a place.

      Infantry do it better when they have armoured vehicles and additional firepower to protect them, that doesn't need to mean tanks.

      Remember the Battleship? King of the high seas? It was made obsolete by a bunch of lightly armed flying weapons, aircraft. And so the Battleship was supplanted by aircraft carriers, specialized craft to ferry around those light weapons.

      That's one likely way this will play out, the Tank, the Battleship of the land, will get replaced by some form of drone support hubs, aircraft carr

  • ...with running what is essentially an advertising agency & decides that he now wants to be a military analyst.

    But he's a multi-billionaire so we should listen to him!

    & whatever the press does, they absolutely mustn't publish any expert opinions (You know, actual military analysts) on the subject that might conflict with his lordship's proclamations.

    The USA fought a war of independence from a monarchy only to replace it with barons.
  • I'm wondering if he's actually trying to make an argument here for fewer overseas deployments. We haven't needed tanks on American soil since ... maybe the US civil war?

    We can - and do - send tanks overseas to help with land battles between other countries. However from a national defense standpoint they don't do much. If the goal is to put fewer American troops in harms way then there could be an argument made for keeping fewer tanks around - although that is based on the assumption that then the tr
  • by wicka ( 985217 ) on Friday November 01, 2024 @09:37AM (#64911953)
    For one, he sounds like a redditor when he says "we have thousands of tanks stored somewhere" and assumes that to mean we have a bunch of usable tanks just sitting in a parking lot. No, they're mothballed. They would take a huge amount of work to get back in working condition. They're not something you can just give away. And two, he's taking about the value of drones based on a conflict - the Russo-Ukrainian War - in which tanks have been massively important and massively effective. Two things can be true at the same time, slugger.

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