Global Temperatures Likely To Exceed Key Limit For First Time 120
With October's initial temperature data in, 2024 will rank as the first calendar year in modern record-keeping in which global average surface temperatures exceed the Paris Agreement's aspirational 1.5C guardrail. From a report:Holding long-term warming to the 1.5-degree target compared to the preindustrial era is crucial for lowering the risk of triggering climate change tipping points, beyond which potentially catastrophic impacts have a higher likelihood of occurring, studies show. Holding warming to that target is viewed as necessary for small island states and other extremely vulnerable nations to avoid being wiped out by sea level rise, drought and other threats.
The data -- and proxy records such as tree rings and ice cores -- shows this year is likely to be the hottest in at least 125,000 years. Right now, the world is on track for as much as 3.1C (5.58F) of warming based on already pledged emissions cuts, assuming they are fulfilled. Copernicus Climate Change Service reported early Thursday that the year is headed for a temperature anomaly of more than 1.55C (2.79F) above preindustrial levels. Last year fell just shy of the 1.5C threshold relative to the 1850-1900 average.
The data -- and proxy records such as tree rings and ice cores -- shows this year is likely to be the hottest in at least 125,000 years. Right now, the world is on track for as much as 3.1C (5.58F) of warming based on already pledged emissions cuts, assuming they are fulfilled. Copernicus Climate Change Service reported early Thursday that the year is headed for a temperature anomaly of more than 1.55C (2.79F) above preindustrial levels. Last year fell just shy of the 1.5C threshold relative to the 1850-1900 average.
I think we've given up. (Score:5, Insightful)
We've decided "the economy", SUVs, and hamburgers are more important. We've elected leaders that will end all this pesky economy-killing climate regulation. It's not human caused anyway!
We didn't really elect them. (Score:2, Interesting)
This was less of a problem for the Republicans because they motivate their base with fear and because they rely heavily on the baby boom
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Well if both sides face the same obstacles, and one side is more willing to endure them to vote, it seems to me that it's another mechanism of measuring the will of the people. It's not the most direct measure, but how is it that much different than people staying home by default rather than hardship?
Not saying it's great... but one side had their shit together on motivating their base, and one did not. How they got there isn't really relevant.
Re:We didn't really elect them. (Score:4, Insightful)
Well if both sides face the same obstacles
Both sides don't face the same obstacles if you target the obstacles correctly.
That's not how it works (Score:4, Informative)
This isn't perfect. The GOP lost 3m votes. But the Dems lost 15 million, and with it the election.
One side "didn't endure more", the GOP didn't endure much of anything. The voter suppression is targeted. Because of that you can make it so your guys wait 10, 20 maybe 30 minutes instead of 7 hours. Sure, a few will get caught in "friendly fire" but you don't care because you win.
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I was only addressing the point that th OP made about the republicans being willing to wait it out and vote, and about what drove them Fear is a powerful motivator.
There are plenty of anti-voter shenanigans, I didn't address them.
They're not, the GOP lost 3m voters (Score:2)
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exit poll data suggests men with children chose Trump by wide margin and women with children only went Harris by like 51% or so.
source: CNN
So if kids were the issue, it probably suppressed the Trump vote more. Look man I know it is hard, you have been gaslit for the last decade or so by the media, but the reality is a majority, all be it a small majority or Americans are NOT progressives.
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The fact is, the Dems fell far short of 2020 voter numbers, while Trump.... has almost hit 2020 voter numbers.
There was no mass migration of voters from Dem -> Repub. There was a fucking epic shortfall of Dem voters.
Re:We didn't really elect them. (Score:4, Interesting)
By making it as difficult and inconvenient as possible for "those people" to vote, this makes it easier to get the result you want.
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Removing the number of available locations to prevent people from voting is a deliberate, conscious act designed to suppress certain segments of the voting population.
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If you look into it you'll find the swing states in America had 7 hour wait times to vote. The secretaries of state were Democrats but they fucked up badly. When you're dealing with 7 hour wait times to vote people have work and kids and frankly they're just too exhausted from those things to stand in line for 7 hours. As a result 15 million fewer people voted Democrat. This was less of a problem for the Republicans because they motivate their base with fear and because they rely heavily on the baby boomers and older Gen x who have nothing but time. I don't know if America is ever going to have another election again. The Republican party has detailed plans to stop that. They're done just suppressing the vote they're going to just not allow it anymore. But if we do we need to do what we did with the DMV when the lines got bad and people had had enough. Laws were passed requiring no more than 15 minutes in line. That forced the state legislatures to stop fucking around and properly fund the DMV. It might require a constitutional amendment at the state level though but without it this is just going to keep happening
Don't know WTF you're talking about with the DMV. I've never waited less than fifteen minutes for any reason at the DMV. Usually it's more around an hour and a half.
Oh, wait. It's fifteen minutes or less in line to get the number, then go take your seat. After that it can be as long as it takes. I suppose in some way they did improve it over the old days where you just stood shuffling forward one body length at a time for hours. Now you get to sit in the most uncomfortable chairs in existence for hours inst
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In California, I could make an appointment months in advance or I could walk in. As a walk-in, I made sure to get there before they opened in the morning so I was "only" 20-30 people back. Then it was 15-20 minutes to get a number and 2-3 hours to get my issue resolved.
I'm now in Florida. I called ahead to ask about making an appointment when I got here about getting my license. She didn't understand what I was asking. They don't have appointments. But she did say if I showed during their busy hours a
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In California, I could make an appointment months in advance or I could walk in. As a walk-in, I made sure to get there before they opened in the morning so I was "only" 20-30 people back. Then it was 15-20 minutes to get a number and 2-3 hours to get my issue resolved.
I'm now in Florida. I called ahead to ask about making an appointment when I got here about getting my license. She didn't understand what I was asking. They don't have appointments. But she did say if I showed during their busy hours around lunch time I might have to wait as long as 5-10 minutes to talk to someone. Not get a number, but actually be talking to the person who resolves my issue. Showing at any other time you just walk up to the counter.
California: blue state, very high taxes Florida: red state, zero income and moderate property taxes
You decide what the DMV issue could possibly be.
I'm in South Dakota, almost as red a state as there is. We can make appointments, the appointment gets you a number and then you wait for your number to be called same as anyone else. The problem is bureaucracy, regardless of political party in charge. Well, that and the DMV does have a reputation to uphold.
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I'm in South Dakota
Well, as long as all 15 people in the state don't go to renew their license at the same time, you shouldn't have a wait.
I jest, of course. Honestly, the ND DMV in Bismarck was actually pretty good. It never took me more than one trip, and rarely waited very long in line. I can't say it was pleasant, but so much better than MN's.
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The DMV at the county seat where I now live, is closed on Mondays.
Not just holidays like MLK and veterens day, any Monday
and it is an (R) voting county
(no trouble with voting in theTWP though)
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Don't know WTF you're talking about with the DMV. I've never waited less than fifteen minutes for any reason at the DMV. Usually it's more around an hour and a half.
What are you talking about having to go to the DMV ? I live in England and it is all done on-line these days. The last time that I had to interact with DVLA [www.gov.uk] I did it at 1am as that was convenient for me.
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Don't know WTF you're talking about with the DMV. I've never waited less than fifteen minutes for any reason at the DMV. Usually it's more around an hour and a half.
What are you talking about having to go to the DMV ? I live in England and it is all done on-line these days. The last time that I had to interact with DVLA [www.gov.uk] I did it at 1am as that was convenient for me.
Congrats on living in a modern country. Those of us in the USA are still trying to shake off the shackles of puritanism that led us to leaving England because England just didn't quite have a big enough stick up its ass. Modernizing anything government related ends up a clusterfuck, so we pretty much avoid it at all costs. Unless its about weapons. We'll modernize weapons all day long. Killing good. Government services for the people bad.
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So 15 million fewer democrats voted but the same number of republicans voted.
In every election in the last 20 years the democrats got roughly 65m votes. Except 2020 where 15m extra ballots got counted. Then this year we went back to ~65m again. Where did the extra 15m come from in 2020 is the question everyone should ask, not why aren't they voting this year.
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I believe and continue to believe that 2020 was decided by chicanery - lets wait on this particular point for the final totals from this year to come in.
Inept states like CA and AZ aside that still have a good deal of their vote uncounted to the tune 30% the rest of the country still has perhaps 1-2% of ballots outstanding too. That missing turnout could show up in those numbers.
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Considering all the whining the convicted felon did about "illegal voting" taking place in Philadelphia and elsewhere, now that he's won it is a certainty he'll direct his people to find all those "illegal" votes. Absolutely, 100% sure he'll do this.
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I believe and continue to believe
Lots of people believe that the solar system, our planet, and every living thing on it was conjured out of nothing by a mythical sky being over the course of a week. The number of people that believe something doesn't change the accuracy of the belief. You've had four years to prove "chicanery" on the scale to swing an election. I assume we'll see it any day now?
Were there fingers all over the scales in 2020? Absolutely. As there were in every election since the beginning of elections, and as there will be
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2020 was decided by 30k votes.
2024 was millions apart.
I assume you can see the difference between chicanery that changes a result and chicanery that does not.
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I'm saying that if the chicanery exists but does not change the results then it still exists but the election was not stolen.
If it does change the results then it was stolen.
Either way, chicanery is bad but sometimes it actually works to change a result. That's called election theft. Aka a stolen election.
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Aka a stolen election.
Uh huh. And you have proof of this, I assume? (And just so my stance on the matter is 100% clear: This election was not stolen. But neither was 2020.)
Re:We didn't really elect them. (Score:4, Interesting)
The 20% less voters doesn't surprise me.
A few people I know that never have voted Republican voted Trump (they were minorities too).
On top of that, a lot of fairly reliable voters I know didn't vote this year.
While in 2020 people didn't like Biden, there was a lot more stop trump vibes, while this year the vibes were "we're all fucked anyway".
Additionally, in 2020 the bigger the polling miss (the average was 3.5%, but states where it was higher skewed nore towards Trump) the more Trump votes vs polls which would imply that the pollsters were in on it too, which seems like a lot of people with very differing interests to get in on the fraud.
The plural of anecdote is not data (Score:1)
What's the difference? COVID. During COVID lots of folks had lots of free time to vote and we did all sorts of stuff to make it easier to vote.
That was alll gone in 2024, and it showed.
The turnout in 2020 showed what happens when people can vote, and the answer is "extremist candidates like Trump lose".
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The plural of anecdote is not data, but when the data (the results we see) aligns with the anecdote it starts to look like there's maybe something to it.
Like maybe the casual observations (less people voting, minorities voting for Trump) weren't just randos at my local bar, but instead a nationwide trend.
I didn't say it was obvious to me there'd be 20% less votes for Democrats based on the anecdotes, but it doesn't surprise there were as it tends to match the words people were saying before the election in
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A lot of people couldn't vote for Harris because she has been supporting Israel, and Biden continues to arm them.
Turns out being involved in the genocide of a race tends to make members of that race, even if they aren't personally being run over by an armoured bulldozer, not want to vote for you. Their friends might think twice about it too, especially if they were peacefully protesting against the genocide and got beat up by cops and Zionists with your support.
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Well, they're gonna just love the second
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It's an impossible situation. You vote for Harris, she will take it as a mandate to carry on killing Palestinians. You don't vote for her, you get Trump.
At least if you refuse to vote at all, and the Democrats see that, they might change their policies. But of course you have to survive the next four years first.
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In every election in the last 20 years the democrats got roughly 65m votes. Except 2020 where 15m extra ballots got counted. Then this year we went back to ~65m again. Where did the extra 15m come from in 2020 is the question everyone should ask, not why aren't they voting this year.
She got demolished, it's done. Cry it out and move on. Further discussion of the past is mental masturbation and boring.
The irony is astounding.
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Do you know what hyper inflation is?
Because it seems incredibly unlikely too happen.
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But what WILL happen is inflation is going to come roaring back with tax cuts, tariffs, and also I totally forgot, the bailouts to the industries that are punished by retaliatory tariffs. I think it was to the tune of 40 billion for farmers alone last time?
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Even not as the reserve currency, I doubt we'll get to 10x prices/year. Nobody will pay off mortgages with marbles, and nobody will need to literally sprint to spend their paycheck because prices update 3 times a day at the grocery store.
10% annual inflation sucks (we peaked at 9% over the last 5 years), but it's high inflation, but not even extreme. Hyperinflation is 1000% (as defined).
Certainly if 60% tarrifs with 750 billion cash injection a year (from tax cuts) happen, inflation will be high, maybe high
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fund SS and Medicare.
Optimist.
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Don't forget the mass deportations. There are jobs American companies won't pay enough for American workers to do, and Americans don't make enough babies to keep the economy going on their own. Anything undesirable that can't be automated immediately will get very expensive or no longer get made/done.
It's crazy.
Re: I think we've given up. (Score:3)
"There are jobs American companies won't pay enough for American workers to do, and Americans don't make enough babies to keep the economy going on their own."
Republicans have a plan for that, ban birth control. Besides, Elon says don't worry about it, go ahead and have kids, and he's a genius!
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They might not be too pleased when women stop wanting to have sex or get married because there is no contraception, they can't get the morning after pill or an abortion, and marriage went back to the 1950s model.
Then again their leader is a rapist, confirmed by a court of law, and recent slogans like "your body, my choice" suggest they don't think women have much say in the matter.
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Then again their leader is a rapist, confirmed by a court of law, and recent slogans like "your body, my choice" suggest they don't think women have much say in the matter.
That's exactly right. They absolutely will seek a national abortion ban. They absolutely will make it harder to prosecute rape, which is directly relevant to the president we just elected. It is literally part of their plan (which they are already no longer pretending is not their plan) to create children of rape to do labor and fight the wars of tomorrow.
None of that, nor even Trump's win, surprises me. I am slightly surprised however that California voted to protect prison labor, aka state-operated slaver
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"the economy"
Yeah. Keep behaving like its nothing.
The people have figured it out. But feel free to keep marginalizing yourself: you're transparent.
You have meaningful options. You can embrace growth and prosperity and our technological capabilities, such as nuclear power, and actually solve problems you claim to care so much about. That would involve foregoing your deeply held desire to inflict energy poverty, and all the other poverty that you know comes with it. I know that's really tough, but you do have tha
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Making it easier to get college loans doesn't seem to have helped as much as everyone thought.
Flooding postsecondary education with a horde of government financed midwits hasn't just not helped. It's been an enormous detriment. It has compromised academic standards, turned colleges and universities into overpriced diploma mills and devalued academic credentials. Not to mention saddling the young with debt.
Re: I think we've given up. (Score:2)
"Flooding postsecondary education with a horde of government financed midwits hasn't just not helped. It's been an enormous detriment."
How does this differ from before we did all these government subsidized student loans? Answer, school was subsidized directly instead of through loans. That's it. You still had stupid people going to school on the government dime, they just didn't go into a lifetime of debt for it.
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So is the trade war Trump wants to start with the entire world part of embracing "growth and prosperity"?
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So is the trade war Trump wants to start with the entire world part of embracing "growth and prosperity"?
I don't know precisely what the impact of increasing our aggression in the on-going trade war will be. I know you don't either.
What do know is this: the overlap in the Venn diagram of people bleating about the economic destruction that tariffs will supposedly bring and the people who cannot fathom how ever higher taxes will produce the same outcome is 100%.
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I don't know precisely what the impact of increasing our aggression in the on-going trade war will be. I know you don't either.
No, Trump's plans (if enacted as he's claimed) mean repercussions for us. Do you honestly have any doubts that most of the world won't reply with similiar when we drop very large tariffs on everything they sell us? Claiming doubt on that outcome is like claiming a dropped rock wont hit the ground, it's pretty much guaranteed to happen.
What do know is this: the overlap in the Venn diagram of people bleating about the economic destruction that tariffs will supposedly bring and the people who cannot fathom how ever higher taxes will produce the same outcome is 100%.
Hahaha. It's funny because not only are you being a dick and exaggerating what I'm saying while creating a false dichotomy of options but I'm pretty sure you didn't get your t
Don't forget the trade war! (Score:5, Insightful)
We've decided "the economy", SUVs, and hamburgers are more important.
Don't forget the trade war we essentially just voted to authorize! Across the board tariff increases (a core part of Trump's platform) against every other country in the world is a guaranteed start to one. What a win for America, more global warming and a recession on the horizon!
The silver lining to if Trump pulls off this recession in waiting is we'll get to watch the dedicated Trumpers make up fantasies about how it's not his fault. Sadly, having seen how things go though, the blame will never stick to him.
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Then the sugar hit of running up the deficit and lowering taxes will kick in just in time for the next election. We're turning it around ! MAGAs will line up for the next sugar rush. EVEN LOWER TAXES !! (and even bigger deficits shhh) yee har!!
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>Don't forget the trade war we essentially just voted to authorize!
Some fairly major supply chains reorg'd last time Trump was in power and they weren't exactly painless transitions. This time, I expect the players are a little better prepared and less likely to just hold on and hope the ride ends quickly.
I think this time the US might just find their trade partners more ready to switch elsewhere. They may even start before Trump takes office, if they're smart.
Except Canada. Canada's pretty much boned
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Well the hope is that there are enough sane Republicans that they can rein in his more insane shit like last time. Only it seems like there's less of those this time.
On the other hand maybe this is all a giant shake-down to extort shit from other countries because I don't think Trump is above doing that to allied countries.
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On the plus side it might reduce some global shipping and air travel, and people without jobs tend to drive their SUVs less. Poverty is a great reason to buy a smaller, more efficient car.
On the other hand, the stuff American really needs like cheap solar panels and EVs are going to get way more expensive.
If you are thinking about solar and batteries, buy now before the prices shoot up. Energy prices aren't going to go down with Trump's policies, so you might want to insulate yourself against the rises.
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Ha yeah, silver linings and all. Call me crazy but I'd have liked green policies that didn't involve large amounts of human suffering due to economic hardship But yes, there will be some mild amusement to be had hearing how idiots can't afford their giant over priced tanks anymore when the recession hits if this insanity is actually carried out and that might end up dropping emissions a bit
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I suspect we're watching the last years of an empire as it collapses in on itself through short-sighted greed, incompetent mismanagement, & blatant corruption regardles
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Looks like it. And this problem _will_ solve itself eventually. But whether humans are still in the picture is questionable and with > 3C, a human high-tech civilization still being around is quite unlikely.
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I think we've given up.
Ummm, nobody who could affect change ever tried. Lots of individuals care/d, but why? They were not able to do anything at all. They are able to do nothing at all. They will be able to do nothing at all. The boat left the dock and 'we' are not the captain. I don't even know who is the captain and at this point, I don't care. They suck and their failure will kill all of us.
Don't make me tap the sign (Score:1)
More batteries, more solar panels, more immigrants.
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Climate change makes people migrate from certain parts of the world to other parts?
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I'll guess that AC was trying to create a slogan about climate change in general.
My reluctant attempt at a slogan is "More war." As the climate changes, the parts of the earth that are habitable will change and people will move to where they're not welcome. That will create conflicts.
don't focus on the number. (Score:4, Interesting)
1.5 C is merely a number that was picked because it is a nice round number for the Paris accords. There is no particular tipping point that we believe will happen at 1.5C. It is worse than, say, 1.3C, but not as bad as, say 2C.
Stop focussing on the number. The problem is not exceeding any one particular number, it is that the number will keep rising indefinitely as long as we keep increasing the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
Re:don't focus on the number. (Score:5, Interesting)
Good ol' tragedy of the commons. A country increasing its CO2 output is beneficial for them (financially) but detrimental to everyone else long-term. Similarly, a country decreasing its CO2 output is detrimental for them (financially) but beneficial to everyone else long-term.
Historically, humans have solved the tragedy of the commons problem by either fencing areas off or by enacting local regulations (enforced by the local monopoly of force). But when it comes to the climate, you can't fence off the atmosphere and you can't enforce regulations using force on a global scale (because there is no Earth Police). Personally, I think humans aren't suitably equipped from an evolutionary standpoint to tackle a problem like climate change, the planetary-scale cooperation and mutual understanding mechanisms required for that simply don't exist in our species. We are screwed.
Not All Coutrnies the Same (Score:2)
A country increasing its CO2 output is beneficial for them (financially) but detrimental to everyone else long-term.
It depends very much on the country and there are two competing effects. Short-term there is a boost to the economy from avoiding the expense of switching to nuclear and renewables this benefits just the country failing to switch. Long-term, for most countries there is a strong negative effect where farmland becomes unusable, rising sea levels require expensive coastal defences and/or mass migration etc.
However, some countries, like Canada, are actually expected to get a net boost to GDP from global war
Re:don't focus on the number. (Score:5, Informative)
We are going to hit +2.0 in about 25 years, so I guess we will get to see first hand just how destructive this will be.
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25 years, you are really optimistic. I reckon 5-10 years.
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It seems like the projections are linear but the reality is exponential.
Your average person probably avoided taking math in high school and doesn't understand the difference anyway.
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the current 50% chance of going above +2C is around 2040.
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"We are going to hit +2.0 in about 25 years,"
With the (R)s doing a clean sweep (Prez, Senate, and House) I am sure we can hit that by the end of the decade (that's Dec 31, 2030)
Don't forget that other countries are also going to be increasing their emissions.
Of course a worldwide depression could prevent that, which Trump might be able to achieve.
One thing though is that the swing states (MI, PA and WI) are less likely to be as badly affected by climate change than the coastal southern states that always v
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1.5 C is merely a number that was picked because it is a nice round number for the Paris accords. There is no particular tipping point that we believe will happen at 1.5C.
There was a little more to it than it being a "nice round number ": https://news.mit.edu/2023/expl... [mit.edu]
That link says pretty much exactly the same thing I just said:
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Well, to be fair that is exactly why a number was picked. Because it shows that everyone who signed agreed to a goal and they failed to keep it, which effectively means that it keeps going up. The only way humans *will* do anything is to focus on a tangible goal.
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Well, to be fair that is exactly why a number was picked. Because it shows that everyone who signed agreed to a goal
A goal which was completely arbitrary.
and they failed to keep it,
The consequences of failing to keep it was: no difference from not making it the goal in the first place.
which effectively means that it keeps going up. The only way humans *will* do anything is to focus on a tangible goal.
Didn't work. What's the next plan? Set another arbitrary goal?
Good thing that this is all a "hoax' (Score:2)
Pledges are worthless (Score:5, Informative)
We are at +1.5C now and heading for at least +3.5C -- which is the equilibrium temperature for our current greenhouse gas concentration, but every year we increase, not decrease the greenhouse gas levels. As is clearly shown in this paper, temperature is a lagging indicator: https://www.ces.fau.edu/nasa/i... [fau.edu] The entire mass of the atmosphere is 1/5 the mass of the ice in Antarctica. There are a lot of heat sinks holding the temperature back from its ultimate equilibrium point, but the planet will get there eventually.
And it looks like we have likely warmed the planet enough to initiate ever increasing microbial methane production which in ~70 years will become the primary driver of global warming. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.... [wiley.com] .
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Far from it. Many countries that have made pledges have met them, or at least used those pledges to pass legislation that moved towards them faster than they otherwise would have.
Look at China. 5 years ahead of its pledge, peaking at a fraction of the per-capital level that the US did, that the US produces today. We are incredibly lucky that they did that, rather than just saying "but America", like Americans say "but China".
Of course they still need to do more, but they have proven that vast amounts of win
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Scientists need to stop ignoring the evidence that humans are failing to moderate their behavior.
Why? Nobody who can do anything cares about anything the scientists say. Reality just doesn't matter. The only thing that matters is what certain people want and no fact or facts will alter their desires.
Good news! (Score:1)
This means less people will die from cold exposure. That's a good thing.
Thanks to the Sun for making this possible.
China don't care (Score:1)
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Re: China don't care (Score:1)
Americans: We are the world leaders! Yeah!
Also Americans: We won't do anything smart until China does it first.