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Earth

Despite Clean Energy Use, Global Warming is Still Projected to Continue (msn.com) 242

The world's use of clean energy "is rapidly growing", reports the Washington Post, "but not fast enough to keep temperatures in check..."

Many experts say it will be the economics of clean energy that defines the future of the planet — and how developing countries choose to meet their growing electricity demands. "What happens in emerging and developing economies in the next decade in some sense is the whole ballgame," said Jason Bordoff, founding director of the Center for Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. Global greenhouse gas emissions could peak as soon as next year, according to the International Energy Agency, but are not on course to drop sharply enough to contain warming. The world would have to cut its emissions roughly in half by 2035 to meet the 1.5 C target, scientists warn, in part because carbon dioxide stays in the atmosphere for centuries.

Instead, the U.N. projects that nations' current policies will lead to 3.1 C of warming by 2100, or as little as 2.6 C if the strongest pledges are kept. This would represent substantial progress from when the Paris agreement was adopted, when scientists expected a 4 C (7.2 F) rise in temperatures by century's end... Still, the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts "dangerous and widespread disruption" on the current path. The Greenland ice sheet might tip into irreversible collapse, according to the IPCC, threatening cities from New York to Shanghai, while extreme heat and humidity could make large swaths of the world effectively uninhabitable. Scientists also expect a growing toll of disease, crop failures and weather disasters. It would likely take thousands of years for Greenland's ice to completely vanish, but other impacts — like the death of coral reefs worldwide and month-long heat waves — could come in a matter of decades. If countries wish to avoid these consequences, they will have to spend vast sums on adaptation. From now through 2030, poor nations will need up to $387 billion per year to adapt to mounting climate disasters, according to a recent U.N. report...

[Much of the progress on curbing emissions] has come from the United States' switch from coal to natural gas and renewables, and the European Union's rapid embrace of wind and solar power... But the demand for power is also rising, complicating these efforts. According to a recent report from the International Energy Agency, countries are expected to add electricity demand equivalent to the entire nation of Japan every year — thanks to the growth of EVs, the rapid build-out of AI data centers, and a surge in a need for air conditioning in developing countries. That growth in demand means that even as clean energy is added to the grid, fossil fuel use hasn't decreased. And unless countries close coal and gas plants and shut down oil drilling, emissions won't start to come down.

"Two things can both be true: Clean energy is breaking almost every record you can imagine," Bordoff said. "And oil use is going up, and gas use is going up, and coal use is going up."

Despite Clean Energy Use, Global Warming is Still Projected to Continue

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  • Well apparently... (Score:2, Insightful)

    by Randseed ( 132501 )
    Well, apparently, they aren't calculating the energy required to make and maintain things like solar (lithium mining, which is filthy), etc. But I think we're all fucked anyway because we have to worry now about fish farts. [slashdot.org]
    • by gweihir ( 88907 )

      Well, apparently, they aren't calculating the energy required to make and maintain things like solar (lithium mining, which is filthy), etc.

      Obviously, they do. This is not some bunch of amateurs, even when the deniers want to style them as such.

    • by q_e_t ( 5104099 )

      Well, apparently, they aren't calculating the energy required to make and maintain things like solar (lithium mining, which is filthy), etc.

      They do. The wider you cast the net the more complex it is to calculate, though. And it also applies to fossil fuel sources, although I've seen people try to compare the expansive footprint of solar to the narrow footprint for fossil sources

    • Of course they are part of the calculation. The reality is our green energy is still a metaphorical piss in the ocean compared to our wasteful use of fossil fuels.

    • The problem is we aren't conducting the transition fast enough. Almost as if someone with trillions of dollars worth of assets that are about to become basically worthless is going out of their way to slow down that transition...

      But I mean it's like, do you really think somebody would do that? Just go on the internet and lie?
      • I don't have trillions of dollars in assets, but I use fossil fuels. I will be using them for a long time to come, much like most of my peers. That is not a lie. If you want to speed that transition up you are going to have to give us a whole lot of free money. Good luck with that.
  • by drnb ( 2434720 ) on Sunday December 01, 2024 @12:46AM (#64982573)
    The US and EU can not do it alone.

    China has to stop pretending it's an impoverished developing nation that needs immunity from pollution / climate change requirements. It's a wealthy modern industrial nation that should and should act as such.

    And regarding honest to god developing nations, well, either climate change is an existential threat or it is not. If it is, sorry, even developing nations need to chip in. Immunity from pollution / climate change requirements just says that "existential threat" is just political posturing not reality.

    If the existential threat is real, everyone, developed or not, needs to do their part.
    • Any country that is a nuclear power is not impoverished. China needs to grow up, but I don't blame them for taking advantage of geopolitics that are looking at it otherwise. It's everyone but China that needs to get their shit together and categorize them appropriately, and hold them accountable.
      • by gweihir ( 88907 )

        It is not China that needs to grow up. It is the US.

        • by drnb ( 2434720 )

          It is not China that needs to grow up. It is the US.

          US emissions are down, a little behind the EU.

          China's emissions are still growing.

          • All the more reason for the USA, EU, & China to sit down, in good faith, & come up with more effective ways to reduce emissions together. Don't forget the $trillions in trade that pass between all 3. If they cooperate, they most certainly can have a huge impact on greenhouse gas emissions. However, Washington's "aggressive paranoiac" stance in geopolitics makes this very difficult.
            • by gweihir ( 88907 )

              Yep. A cooperation between these three is about the only thing that could still avoid the really large catastrophe (end of civilization) that is currently being engineered. Of course, because of too many no-insight self-righteous or simply evil-greedy assholes, that is not going to happen. Instead there are efforts to actually make the huge catastrophe (end of the human race) a reality.

              • by drnb ( 2434720 )
                Actually it will happen due to CCP industrial policy where pollution is a method of low cost production, a technique to capture markets.
    • by Uecker ( 1842596 ) on Sunday December 01, 2024 @05:09AM (#64982819)

      The US is rated even below China by Climate Change Performance Index: https://ccpi.org/ [ccpi.org]

      China invests massively in renewables and emissions will likely peak now. It has to do much more just as everybody else, but the idea that the US is somehow in a leading position is grotesquely wrong and the "but China" excuse is intellectually and morally poor.

      • by drnb ( 2434720 )

        China invests massively in renewables and emissions will likely peak now. It has to do much more just as everybody else, b

        Investing in renewable does not change the fact that they are the largest polluter and desire exemptions from various climate accords by fraudulently maintaining that they are still a developing nation.

        If we are really facing an existential threat, such behavior dooms us.

        but the idea that the US is somehow in a leading position is grotesquely wrong and the "but China" excuse is intellectually and morally poor.

        A straw main, to put it mildly, a lie to be more accurate. No one claimed the US is in a leading position. Just that it has made improvements, unlike China. Its doing its part, unlike China.

        The claim made is that the US and EU cannot

    • Re: (Score:2, Interesting)

      by thegarbz ( 1787294 )

      The US and EU can not do it alone.

      China has to stop pretending

      Oh fuck off. China is spending far more on green initiatives both in absolute as well as per capita terms than the US and EU and are on track to become a wealthiest 1st world nation with with lowest contribution to emissions over its advancement in history.

      Stop outsourcing your emissions to China. Stop pretending that you have more of a right to pollute than a Chinese person. Start realising that the US / EU per capita emissions are a global embarrassment made only worse by selfish comments like yours.

      • by drnb ( 2434720 )

        The US and EU can not do it alone.

        China has to stop pretending

        LOL, clipping the statement to manufacture a false straw man. The actual claim is "China has to stop pretending it's an impoverished developing nation that needs immunity from pollution / climate change requirements. It's a wealthy modern industrial nation that should and should act as such."

        Oh fuck off. China is spending far more on green initiatives both in absolute as well as per capita terms than the US and EU and are on track to become a wealthiest 1st world nation with with lowest contribution to emissions over its advancement in history.

        Great, you agree China needs no exemptions from climate accords. Now fact the reality that they are the #1 emitter of CO2.

        Stop outsourcing your emissions to China. Stop pretending that you have more of a right to pollute than a Chinese person. Start realising that the US / EU per capita emissions are a global embarrassment made only worse by selfish comments like yours.

        It is CCP policy to import pollution to gain a price advantage in manufacturing. It's the CCP driving this BS. All China has to do is adopt solution controls and enforce them like the US and EU. But they don't, willingly, to adhere to CCP planning.

        • Great, you agree China needs no exemptions from climate accords. Now fact the reality that they are the #1 emitter of CO2.

          Actually when you arbitrarily draw a line around a group of people you can make it say what you want, for example if we draw a line around China you can see the rest of the world is suddenly the #1 emitter of CO2.

          The world doesn't give a fuck how you draw a line on the ground just so you can blame someone else for your own wasteful emissions. Stop being a entitled arsehole who thinks you deserve to use more energy and emit more than a person in China - which is precisely what you do, - since you want to dra

          • by drnb ( 2434720 )

            Actually when you arbitrarily draw a line around a group of people ...

            1. It's not arbitrary. Being the #1 polluter is a fact.
            2. It not arround a people, its around a political organization, the CCP. The CCP is deciding to pollute, not the people. The people have no say in the matter, in fact the people will be harshly punished for criticizing the CCP.

    • by memnock ( 466995 )

      Practically any parking lot I park in has at least one car sitting there idling. I see cars at the gas station where the lone occupant, the driver, is standing outside the car, pumping gas into the car, and the car is running. The guy servicing the lime or whatever scooters leaves the van running while they're switching batteries on a scooter 30' away. People everywhere parked and doing nothing in their cars and leaving the cars running. The U.S. isn't going to fix anything and it deserves whatever trouble

  • by hadleyburg ( 823868 ) on Sunday December 01, 2024 @02:04AM (#64982645)

    A system in which each national government gives priority to its own country, and only focuses on issues that will show results in the next 3 or 4 years, is not well suited for a problem like climate change which demands a whole world unified response. It tends to leave those sorts of problems too late.

    • No! We need to double-down on research into hair-loss prevention & prolonging erections!
      • I think we've done enough R&D in prolonging elections as it is. The AP still hasn't declared California's District 13 [no relation to the dystopic movie District9 or Panem] as of 7:27AM PST Dec2, nearly a month after the election.

    • If you were in charge of the world government, what policies would you enact to solve the problem? Nuclear?
      • by sfcat ( 872532 )
        You realize that's the only real solution right? The numbers are quite clear on this. The engineers have been saying this for decades. Its the only source that scales and its the cleanest source at that. The rest of this is greenwashing so people keep burning FFs. Put it to you this way, if we don't do nuclear, nothing else we do matters at all. If we do, then everything else we do doesn't matter and will only serve to reduce the standard of living for others. Its the only solution with even the right
        • The other option is to wait for battery technology to get good enough to supply electricity through the night.
        • Nuclear only replaces 1 form of pollution with another, I do not trust the government/humanity to manage nuclear waste for 50 years let alone thousands. Its another kicking can the down the road solution. Same goes with electric vehicles, strip-mining the ocean for lithium will have consequences later. The proper solution requires pain, it requires us to learn to consume less. Our thirst for consumption seem endless. It requires us to do this until we develop real way of ways of dealing with our pollution.

  • Ho hum. Humdy hum hum. Anything new?

  • by laughingskeptic ( 1004414 ) on Sunday December 01, 2024 @02:24PM (#64983605)
    Of course the planet is going to continue to warm -- it is a completely ridiculous notion that is wouldn't. We live in an atmosphere that weighs 1/5 as much as just the ice on Antarctica. The planet's ice, its oceans, even the first 30m or so of the ground all have to heat up (and in the case of the ice, melt) as the atmosphere heats up before a new equilibrium associated with our adjusted greenhouse gas concentrations is reached.

    This paper makes it very clear that temperature is a lagging indicator: https://www.ces.fau.edu/nasa/i... [fau.edu]

    Around 1950 we pumped the atmosphere full enough of greenhouse gases for an equilibrium temperature of +2C. In order to not reach +2C in the next 25 years we would have to have not only stop adding more greenhouse gases each year, we would have to figure out how to rapidly scrub the atmosphere of greenhouse gases back to 1950 levels.

    If we just flat-lined greenhouse gases at today's levels are going to eventually reach +3.5C ... and according to some models +5C.

    The incredibly slow process of heating a planet is lulling people into the misconception that the current greenhouse gas concentrations are not as bad as they really are.
  • When techbros decide to bruteforce shit that can be better accomplished with a database (eg, literally everything blockchain or AI hype based), basic shit started rolling coal for no reason.

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