Sea Levels are Already Rising in America's Southeast. A Preview of the Future? (msn.com) 76
The Washington Post visits one of over 100 tide-tracking stations around the U.S. — Georgia's Fort Pulaski tide gauge:
Since 2010, the sea level at the Fort Pulaski gauge has risen by more than 7 inches, one of the fastest rates in the country, according to a Washington Post analysis of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data for 127 tide gauges. Similar spikes are affecting the entire U.S. Southeast — showing a glimpse of our climate future... [I]n the previous 30 years, the ocean rose about 3.7 inches. And the deluge stretches all across the South and the Gulf Coast; over the past 14 years, sea levels in the U.S. South have risen twice as fast as the global average...
Scientists suspect part of that is because of the Gulf Stream — a long band of warm water that follows the coast up from the equator and then, near Cape Hatteras, turns out into the Atlantic Ocean. The waters of the Gulf Stream and the Gulf of Mexico are warming faster than other parts of the Atlantic, boosting sea levels. "The Gulf of Mexico has warmed exceptionally fast over the past decade and a half," Piecuch said. "It's uncontroversial." But scientists have puzzled over where all that heat is coming from... [T]he current heat could be part of long-term variations in ocean currents, and not a clear signal of climate change. But the fact that the change is linked to heat — at the same time as the entire ocean is taking on excess heat from global warming — makes some experts suspicious. "This particular mechanism does not immediately suggest it's just natural variability," [said Ben Hamlington, a research scientist who leads NASAâ(TM)s sea level change team].
For now, sea levels in the Southeast are surging — and they provide an early picture of what most of the United States, and the rest of the world, will experience as oceans rise... On Tybee Island — whose population of 4,000 swells to over 100,000 during the summer months — leaders have gotten used to the constant fight against the waves. Five or six times a year, high tides sweep over the one road that connects the island to the mainland, cutting residents off from services. By 2050, scientists estimate, those high tides will happen 70 days a year. With the help of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the city has built dunes to protect vacation homes and local storefronts from the rising water; many homeowners have also raised their properties high up into the air. In Savannah, small businesses and city streets are washed in floods even on bright, sunny days — thanks to high tides that surge into the drainage system. The city estimates that it will cost $400 million to update the stormwater infrastructure over the next two decades. So far, it has raised $150 million...
Other states and cities will soon see the same effects. NASA projections show that in the coming decades, many cities in the Northeast will experience up to 100 more days of high-tide flooding each year.
"Some researchers think that the Southeast acceleration may be linked to long-term weather patterns in the Atlantic Ocean like the North Atlantic Oscillation.
"If so, the trend could switch in the coming decades — with areas of the Northeast seeing rapid sea level rise while the trend in the Southeast slows down."
Scientists suspect part of that is because of the Gulf Stream — a long band of warm water that follows the coast up from the equator and then, near Cape Hatteras, turns out into the Atlantic Ocean. The waters of the Gulf Stream and the Gulf of Mexico are warming faster than other parts of the Atlantic, boosting sea levels. "The Gulf of Mexico has warmed exceptionally fast over the past decade and a half," Piecuch said. "It's uncontroversial." But scientists have puzzled over where all that heat is coming from... [T]he current heat could be part of long-term variations in ocean currents, and not a clear signal of climate change. But the fact that the change is linked to heat — at the same time as the entire ocean is taking on excess heat from global warming — makes some experts suspicious. "This particular mechanism does not immediately suggest it's just natural variability," [said Ben Hamlington, a research scientist who leads NASAâ(TM)s sea level change team].
For now, sea levels in the Southeast are surging — and they provide an early picture of what most of the United States, and the rest of the world, will experience as oceans rise... On Tybee Island — whose population of 4,000 swells to over 100,000 during the summer months — leaders have gotten used to the constant fight against the waves. Five or six times a year, high tides sweep over the one road that connects the island to the mainland, cutting residents off from services. By 2050, scientists estimate, those high tides will happen 70 days a year. With the help of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the city has built dunes to protect vacation homes and local storefronts from the rising water; many homeowners have also raised their properties high up into the air. In Savannah, small businesses and city streets are washed in floods even on bright, sunny days — thanks to high tides that surge into the drainage system. The city estimates that it will cost $400 million to update the stormwater infrastructure over the next two decades. So far, it has raised $150 million...
Other states and cities will soon see the same effects. NASA projections show that in the coming decades, many cities in the Northeast will experience up to 100 more days of high-tide flooding each year.
"Some researchers think that the Southeast acceleration may be linked to long-term weather patterns in the Atlantic Ocean like the North Atlantic Oscillation.
"If so, the trend could switch in the coming decades — with areas of the Northeast seeing rapid sea level rise while the trend in the Southeast slows down."
"It's uncontroversial." (Score:2)
"It's uncontroversial"
Regretfully they don't yet have an uncontroversial explanation...
Re: "It's uncontroversial." (Score:4)
Very few things are uncontroversial, given the right public. Even Santa Clause's non-existence is controversial to some.
Re: "It's uncontroversial." (Score:5, Funny)
Even the spelling seems controversial.
Re:"It's uncontroversial." (Score:5, Insightful)
They have several uncontroversial explanations each contributing to the problem. They are only controversial if you wish to ignore data and science.
Re:"It's uncontroversial." (Score:4, Informative)
So what you're saying is, whether due to short-sighted greed or the stubborn belligerent ignorance of a large percentage of the population... the explanations are controversial.
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So what you're saying is, whether due to short-sighted greed or the stubborn belligerent ignorance of a large percentage of the population... the explanations are controversial.
Yes, this doesn't seem fair, but it's indeed the case. If enough people contest the curvature of the earth's surface or the outcome of an election or the efficacy of vaccines, then it's a controversy. The actual truth of the matter has nothing to do with whether a controversy exists. The existence of a controversy is directly dependent on the target population.
Re:"It's uncontroversial." (Score:5, Informative)
Regretfully they don't yet have an uncontroversial explanation...
Per the article, the sea rise is uncontroversial. But starting Jan 20, 2025 you will be right. That is when the Leaders in the US will state there is no sea rise and NOAA will be told to adjust all papers and research accordingly when the new admin takes office.
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Regretfully they don't yet have an uncontroversial explanation...
Per the article, the sea rise is uncontroversial. But starting Jan 20, 2025 you will be right. That is when the Leaders in the US will state there is no sea rise and NOAA will be told to adjust all papers and research accordingly when the new admin takes office.
Is NOAA even going to exist?
https://static.project2025.org... [project2025.org]
see page 674
"NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION" ..
"Break Up NOAA."
"Together, these form a colossal operation that has become one of the main
drivers of the climate change alarm industry and, as such, is harmful to future
U.S. prosperity. This industry’s mission emphasis on prediction and management
seems designed around the fatal conceit of planning for the unplannable. That is
not to say NOAA is useless, but its current organizati
Just be glad (Score:2)
that you're not living in Tuvalu or Kiribati. Apologies to these who actually live there.
Re: Just be glad (Score:5, Insightful)
What you meant to say is, tough shit for them because we are not going to change our behavior that is causing their problems.
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Practically speaking, we've built tons of solar and wind power, and we're looking at replacing ICE cars with battery driven.
Practically speaking you've done fuck all and are patting yourself on the back for a job well done.
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You should have more sympathy for them; on a long enough geological timeline, all that'll be left of any body of land is a gradually disappearing sandbar. It happened to Lemuria, it happened to High Brazil, and it could happen to your home, too.
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Lemuria was dope-dream of ... Robert E. Howard, or Lovecraft? I forget who. "High Brazil", if that's a geographical region as it sounds, is still pretty high.
There's a quantitative difference between a volcanic seamoun
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Lemuria was a feverdream of Philip Schlater, which never existed.
Hy-Brasil is an Irish/Celtic folktale island, that supposedly only appeared on the horizon once every 7 years (see also: Brigadoon). Not an actual thing either.
Subsidence (Score:5, Informative)
For that region, the real issue is subsidence from the removal of ground water, not a localized increase in sea level.
Fort Pulaski is next to Savannah, which has had a massive population growth (and accompanying increase in fresh water usage) over that time period.
https://www.wsav.com/weather-news/storm-team-3-now/is-savannah-sinking-major-hotspots-sinking-due-to-subsidence/
Re:Subsidence (Score:5, Insightful)
So what you're really saying is not only do they have to contend with rising ocean levels, they have to deal with the land sinking at the same time. A double whammy which will accelerate their issues. Got it.
Re:Subsidence (Score:5, Insightful)
Yes, but if you can rhetorically minimize the effects of sea level rise, then you don't have to admit that increasing GHGs in the atmosphere is heating the surface of the planet and melting year-round ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica, so yay!
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Re:Subsidence (Score:5, Informative)
According to your link:
So in Savannah Georgia, 4mm of each annual measurement increase is from sea level rise and 4mm is from sinking.
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All of which was pointed out in the article.
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The fundamental reason that this part of the North American coast is subsiding, and will be for thousands of years to come, lays to the north. See that several-km thick mass of ice that covers most of the ground N and W of the glacial moraine of "Long Island"? Nope, neither did I when I was there. Neither of us need to visit the eye
Re: Subsidence (Score:2)
Outside of various temporary events (low pressure system {hurricane}, earthquake {tsunami}, lunar tides), how is localized sea-level rise even possible? Gravity is pretty effective at compensating (storm surge, tsunami, tides).
Ocean wants to get rid of florida faster (NT) (Score:2)
Filter error: You can type more than that for your comment.
Who would have thought that this would happen!!?? (Score:3)
Nobody could have predicted this! I am shocked! /s
https://www.usgs.gov/media/ima... [usgs.gov]
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And shortly these reports will cease to be a problem as the new alleged administration will see to it that they are removed and new ones generated to say it is not a problem. Typical el Bunko behavior, the real world is what I say it is. Remember, he destroys everything he touches.
Science while the world burns! (Score:5, Interesting)
I'm really excited to see where this is headed.
Things that I am expecting in the next 30 years (my potential lifetime):
- "breaking" of the Gulf Stream. Will this mean Europe will freeze over? Sudden increased waterfall in Africa and a more temperate climate there?
- A major U.S. costal city (New Orleans?) will have to create water mitigation systems (dams, levees, sea walls, flood gates) that are permanently in place to prevent complete flooding. That system will break often enough that the city will be eventually abandoned (as it will be uninsurable).
- Pandemics (with death on the scale of Covid-19) will become more common, occurring every 5 years or less.
- Drinkable (potable) water in the U.S. will increase in price 5-fold (when indexed for inflation). Free water as restaurants will go away.
It's going to be interesting times for those of us left alive!
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And hypocritical bastards will still vote to use force to take what they can. Misery is easy, as they say.
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- "breaking" of the Gulf Stream. Will this mean Europe will freeze over? Sudden increased waterfall in Africa and a more temperate climate there?
Possibly and probably worst affected will be the Nordic/Scandinavian countries. But possible reductions in rainfall in India, South America and western parts of Africa, which could affect tree growth and agriculture. The Amazon has already experienced a decrease in rainfall.
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Another fun artifact of the AMOC stopping is 2-3 feet of sea level rise on the northern East Coast of the US. If the current stops pulling water away to the north, the rotation of the earth will have it pile up on the coast.
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Serious question (Score:1)
Re:Serious question (Score:5, Insightful)
To steelman their position:
They are millionaires who can afford the homes and potentially afford the losses but they don't even have to.
Thanks to the National Flood Insurance Program a lower middle-class woodworker in Spokane will pay taxes and a single mom in Phoenix will pay ever-higher grocery bills to cover the losses of the coastal millionaires.
In DC they refer to these citizens as "The Jamokes". It's pure disdain.
But not even Martha's Vineyard is building new sea walls so they don't even believe it.
So you just need to pay more taxes to change the weather.
For another 29 days.
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Where in Gilbert is below flood level?
Oh, and *East Valley Fist Bump*
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Where in Gilbert is below flood level?
Everybody wants to pooh-pooh the risk of flood. Until one happens.
https://www.gilbertaz.gov/depa... [gilbertaz.gov]
https://hdsouth.org/the-floodi... [hdsouth.org]
https://www.floodsafety.com/re... [floodsafety.com]
https://www.azfamily.com/video... [azfamily.com]
https://valleywiderestoration.... [valleywide...ration.com]
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Ask NC how denial of 'increased flood risk' worked out for them.
We are moving into an era of wildly unpredictable weather with greater extremes. Actuaries speak and insurance companies listen.
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To steelman their position:
The steelman position is that these (unnamed) people read the IPCC sea-level rise projections and buy houses that are well above the anticipated sea level rise.
For example, you mention Martha's Vinyard. I googled mansions on Martha's Vinyard, and here's the first image I got https://boojblogbucket.s3.us-w... [amazonaws.com]
This will not be encroached by sea level in the next few centuries.
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At hazard due to my hazy grasp of foreign geography, but isn't "Martha's Vinyard" a good deal further north. Yes - if the Norse got there to leave archaeology, then it's not going to be "Deep South", is it?
If they're further north, they're going to be closer to the "balance" point between post-glacial rebound (centred approximately on Montréal, or further N into Quebec) and the annular post-glacial depression
Re:Serious question (Score:5, Insightful)
Then why do those who claim to be most concerned about this want to live on the coasts?
Every time I've seen one of these posts "XX celebrity has house right on the ocean! That means global warming is fake!" posts, when I look up exactly where the house is and check against a topo map, I find it's on a ridge overlooking the ocean.
High enough that even the exceptional sea-level rise in this article is not going to flood them in this century or next.
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yeah, everybody tried to claim Al Gore was a hypocrite for buying 'ocean front' property, when it was atop a cliff lol
Now in CA that might not last as long as you'd expect, but it won't be 'sea level/flooding' that does it in.
Re:Serious question (Score:4, Interesting)
-Why?
"Tsunami risk here, here, and here. It may be 9000 years since there was last tsunami run-up around here, but it was only 9000 years since there was last tsunami run up in these areas."
-And these other areas?
"Ground slope under 1% - in heavy rain, the water will struggle to flow away. These areas are also, mostly, close to one or other river, and prone to general flooding."
-What about the people who've already brought houses there?
"They should have hired a geologist to advise them. I'd have given them the same advice for the price of a couple of beers. I do routinely for friends."
What if they are wrong (Score:2)
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What if they are right and Florida is reclaimed by the Atlantic Ocean? Do you feel lucky? These are scientists who study the problem. You are some yokel shooting from the hip and saying nothing of import.
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The article discusses the land sinking.
Oh, you think? (Score:2)
A preview of the future? What a bold hypothesis. /sarcasm
Re: Oh, you think? (Score:1)
Re:ah I sea (Score:4, Insightful)
all those billionaire dumbocrats buying seafront properties then?
According to the IPCC report -- you know, the one that the deniers all tell you is "fearmongering"--Global Mean Sea Level "will rise between 0.43 m and 0.84 m by 2100 relative to 1986–2005." https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chap... [www.ipcc.ch]
If any of these "billionaire dumbocrats" is buying seafront properties that are less than a meter above the high tide line, tell me which ones.
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If any of these "billionaire dumbocrats"
Which part of this phrase are you addressing? Musk and Trump are not Democrats.
It's normal human psychology (Score:1)
For some weird reason, your ego wants you to be Important, with the capital "I". It is very common to want to live in near-apocalyptic times, to be one of the special people who gets to see the world end. And you have an innate sense of fairness (as often as it gets twisted in unhelpful ways like envy), which is why you want to see the fools who brought it about suffer for their stupidity.
It's not even a religious thing. I'm about as atheistic as our primate brains get and I have the desire.
It's why I'm
Opinion (Score:2)
I appreciate that this summary included the uncertainties about cause and future effects. It's much more balanced than the usual end-of-days reporting.
What should we do about it? (Score:2)
Are we assuming this sea level rise is from CO2 released into the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels? There seems to be wide agreement on that point. So, what should we do about it.
A great deal of our electricity comes from coal and natural gas. If we assume electric vehicles are going to replace fossil fuels for transportation then petroleum will be replaced by electricity. If we assume synthesized hydrocarbons will replace petroleum as transportation fuel and industrial feed stock then we can assume
Re: What should we do about it? (Score:2)
Managed retreat is the best option for most communities. Highly populated areas with money (Miami comes to mind) might get by raising up the buildings.
Insurance underwriting should be cancelled in those areas where sea levels are expected to take over in the next hundred years or so.
But, but, but.... (Score:2)
Dear leader tells us that climate change isn't real. It and and supposed consequences are nothing more than a hoax made up by China and the libtards to hurt our most excellent and infallible economy. And what dear leader says must be the truth, because dear leader would never, ever, lie to us... right? RIGHT???