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United States

LA Wildfires Push California Insurance Market To Its Limit (bloomberg.com) 179

Five wildfires in Los Angeles have already burned more than 10,000 structures, threatening to upend California's fragile balance between climate risk and home insurance. The Palisades Fire has damaged or destroyed more than 5,000 buildings in an area that liability experts had previously identified as one of three particularly vulnerable regions in the state.

JPMorgan Chase estimates insured damages could reach $20 billion, positioning this as likely the costliest wildfire in U.S. history. The crisis comes as California's insurance market struggles, with seven of the 12 biggest home insurers having limited their coverage in the state over the past two years. The state-backed insurer of last resort, the California FAIR Plan, now faces exposure of up to $458 billion, while holding only $200 million in surplus cash reserves and $2.5 billion in reinsurance. Gusts of up to 100 miles per hour have fanned the flames, with more than 57,000 structures in severe danger and more than 150,000 people under evacuation.

LA Wildfires Push California Insurance Market To Its Limit

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  • by BeepBoopBeep ( 7930446 ) on Tuesday January 14, 2025 @12:25PM (#65088021)
    Too late, the state will go all self-insured (personal or through the state entity) since its all or nothing coverage for coprate coverage. Aint no body in the business of losing money to cover this type of risk. Take your risk burden off the rest of the risk pool nationally so premiums nationally stablize.
    • by smooth wombat ( 796938 ) on Tuesday January 14, 2025 @12:32PM (#65088051) Journal
      Same with Florida. Insurers are abandoning the state [newsweek.com] due to the effects of climate change. The state is the last resort and even their prices aren't affordable for many.
      • We have a home in Naples, FL. FL is f-ed too, but god dam its gorgeous during the cold months.
      • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

        by hey! ( 33014 )

        Housing construction is changing due to climate change. For example in the Florida Keys, where the highest land is just 10 feet above mean high tide, new houses have to be built with a sacrificial first level built of salt water resistant materials, where you aren't allowed to use as living space or storage except for things that are normally kept outdoors. Note how this works: there are architectural and material standards, plus usage restrictions.

        California's building codes in fire prone areas are simi

        • There is no building standard that could have saved these homes during high sustained burn periods and temps. The cars literally melted. There is molten metal all over the place. The only thing left standing from what I can tell are brick chimneys and fancy exterior brick front walls, a very common building material in the mid-west. The issue is, brick dont work so good when the earth shakes.
          • In my home town, at the height of the cold war, a few people built homes to withstand a nuclear war. They dug out a basement, built a single-level house, and covered the top with 36 inches of soil. The only openings were the (recessed) doors and a few windows.

            While not a "typical" house, they had the added advantage that they were cool in the hot midwestern summers, and warm in the cold midwestern winters. And they never needed painting or reroofing.

            So it is possible to build "fireproof" houses, but

            • You think 36 inches of soil will save you from a 2100F fire? That's adorable.
              No, you're quite fucking dead.
              • He is confusing a blast vs long periods of sustained burning and high temps. You would suffocate anyways if you hung around in a structure that could handle it anyways.
              • You think 36 inches of soil will save you from a 2100F fire? That's adorable.

                No, you're quite fucking dead.

                Significantly decreasing the exterior materials that are flammable significantly decreases the chances of that structure being destroyed by fire. Even the insurance companies (or at least some of them) recognize this and cancel policies based on exterior building materials.

                • You don't seem like a stupid person, so I'm a bit confused by you don't apply your brain here.

                  There's a huge fucking leap between making sure a house can't go up in smoke over a single ember landing on it, and pretending like anything in the universe you make it out of can protect it against a 90mph conflagration that burns so hot it can cause wood to spontaneously combust 30 feet away. That includes the wood inside your home, if the fire gets close enough to heat your magically perfectly fireproof exteri
                • I live in cold weather climate, but sorry to say, all warm weather homes are built like shit vs a brick tank in the mid-west that can handle all extremes of temp swings. CA will have to vastly update their codes to modern standards, but even if they did, no way any standard would have survived this event. My brick walls would have been upright, but everything inside the house is toast once the roof was roasted apart.
                  • by flink ( 18449 )

                    Your brick tank would crumble to pieces and fall on you in an earth quake. CA code strongly discourages structural masonry for good reason.

              • Obviously, you would evacuate because you wouldn't be able to survive inside the house at the time of the fire. But I would be willing to bet that everything inside the house would be just fine as long as there was no path for the fire to make it inside the house.

                • Thermal energy doesn't work that way.
                  You have a fundamental gap in your understanding of how fire events like these propagate.
                  The air is 2000 degrees.
                  Your door will then be 2000 degrees.
                  Then the air in your home.
                  Then your curtains. And your curtains will burn.

                  The only thing you can do is keep the fire well, well away from you. But if it gets over you- 36 inches of soil won't stop your home from becoming a charcoal pit.
          • by hey! ( 33014 )

            Well, a car sitting in someone's car port isn't particularly fireproof, given that it's sitting on a 15 gallon tank of gasoline. So that tells us nothing.

            It's a matter of degree, but if you want to argue what's *possible*, it is absolutely possible to build a "house" (note scare quotes) that can survive this. You just build it like an inside-out pizza oven, with reinforced refractory concrete about a foot thick and clad in fire bricks and maybe those tiles they line blast furnaces with. You might not be a

      • by Orgasmatron ( 8103 ) on Tuesday January 14, 2025 @01:19PM (#65088231)

        Do you want to know the real reason why insurers are leaving Florida? It has nothing to do with climate, and everything to do with fraudulent inspections.

        Florida building codes demand a certain level of hurricane resistance. Inspectors signed off on these buildings being built to code. But they weren't, and the inspectors didn't actually inspect them. So now Florida has millions of houses that probably weren't built to code, and no one knows which ones.

        Now you, the insurance company, know that each house can expect to see X hurricanes per decade, and the average claim per house per hurricane is Y dollars if the roof stays on, and 30*Y if the roof comes off. You've been pricing your policies based on a low risk of the roof flying off, based on signed inspections saying that the root was fastened down correctly. But now you know that a large but unknown fraction of those inspections are fraudulent, and you don't know which ones. What do you do now?

        If you answered C: Get the hell out of Florida, you are right and your company maybe doesn't go bankrupt in a few years.

        • Citation needed.

        • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

          by pulpo88 ( 6987500 )

          Do you want to know the real reason why insurers are leaving Florida? It has nothing to do with climate, and everything to do with fraudulent inspections... You've been pricing your policies based on a low risk of the roof flying off, based on signed inspections saying that the root was fastened down correctly. But now you know that a large but unknown fraction of those inspections are fraudulent, and you don't know which ones. What do you do now? ... Get the hell out of Florida

          Taking your own description as granted, I don't see how it has "nothing to do with climate."

          Fraudulent inspections and climate change together compound risk. It sounds like people in Florida were able to get away with substandard home inspections for a while, but now that there's substantially increased risk of storms that test the limits of building codes, the risk has become too much to bear and insurers are being scared off.

          There are many examples in the climate change "fearmongering" literature of risk

    • Self-insurance by the state can't fix the problems caused by artificially capping prices. The summary even points out that FAIR has an exposure orders of magnitude beyond what they can actually pay out. It wouldn't matter if insurance companies stuck around because they'd be in the same boat and bankrupt themselves. If the state refuses to allow homeowners to take actions to lower risks then prices need to be allowed to increase. Artificially low premiums only encourage building expensive homes in fire pron
      • This state is so dysfunctional, its crazy. We just talking fires, we havent even discussed what happens when the CA earth starts to shake, which it will, everyone forgets, CA shakes.
  • and abandonment of California by insurance companies, followed by bank failures as properties are foreclosed due to lack of insurance.
    Then prepare for the total collapse of the real estate market as insurance becomes unavailable.

    • Its impossible for that, you need insurance to get a loan. I am not sure what happens when you lose coverage during your payment schedule though. Not everyone has a loan, if you not ultra rich but have no payments, you just lost your home and will sell the land off for pennies on the dollar to get back on your feet.
      • by mysidia ( 191772 ) on Tuesday January 14, 2025 @01:31PM (#65088285)

        I am not sure what happens when you lose coverage during your payment schedule though.

        It's a default on the loan and they can call the balance of your loan to demand immediate repayment of the balance in full Or foreclose on the property, but they will most likely get replacement insurance that pays out to them at a very high cost, and the premium will be charged to you.

        • by rskbrkr ( 824653 )

          I am not sure what happens when you lose coverage during your payment schedule though.

          It's a default on the loan and they can call the balance of your loan to demand immediate repayment of the balance in full Or foreclose on the property, but they will most likely get replacement insurance that pays out to them at a very high cost, and the premium will be charged to you.

          The bank/lender will purchase force-placed insurance on the property and add the premium to the monthly mortgage payment. This is never in the borrower's best interest they policies are more much expensive than what they can get on the open market. Not sure how readily force-placed insurance is available for homes in wild-fire danger zones in CA.

    • by JBMcB ( 73720 )

      and abandonment of California by insurance companies, followed by bank failures as properties are foreclosed due to lack of insurance.
      Then prepare for the total collapse of the real estate market as insurance becomes unavailable.

      The state will step in and fill in the void left by the insurers. Unfortunately to fund this they will have to *crank* up taxes, as insured would loose their mind if the rates rose to what it cost to actually cover the risk. So the cost of living in the LA area will be subsidized by the rest of the state.

      • If the article is correct: "The state-backed insurer of last resort, the California FAIR Plan, now faces exposure of up to $458 billion, while holding only $200 million in surplus cash reserves and $2.5 billion in reinsurance", this is most dysfunctional math situation possible with just $200mn in cash and $2.5bn in coverage available to cover $458bn in exposure. CA is absolutely f-ed and all losses will be socialized through state taxes. No more yapping about CO2 emissions anymore, get to work and fix s
        • by Tablizer ( 95088 )

          No more yapping about CO2 emissions anymore, get to work and fix stuff.

          You mean the climate? No way, GOP would rather blame Dems about not dotting every 'i' and crossing every 't' in handling emergencies. Orange Herrings "work" for elections, so they'll do more. The Toddler King has been bigly enabled. One Gopper is even blaming the wind & fire as God's punishment for LGBTQ+*.

          Neverminded that hurricane areas are in a similar insurance dilemma.

          * What's next, God's punishment for allowing Haitians to eat

          • Still yapping about something, get to work
          • So, essentially, the CA political class can no longer blame state republicans for state issues, so they've been forced to blame national republicans for state issues.

            What should be happening is an attempt to change the states approach to firefighting, probably through automation and drones.
        • If the article is correct: "The state-backed insurer of last resort, the California FAIR Plan, now faces exposure of up to $458 billion, while holding only $200 million in surplus cash reserves and $2.5 billion in reinsurance", this is most dysfunctional math situation possible with just $200mn in cash and $2.5bn in coverage available to cover $458bn in exposure. CA is absolutely f-ed and all losses will be socialized through state taxes. No more yapping about CO2 emissions anymore, get to work and fix stuff.

          I believe I heard/read that (basically) the law says CA can make the insurance companies make up the shortfall, and those companies can then pass those costs along to their other customers in the state.

          • by JBMcB ( 73720 )

            I believe I heard/read that (basically) the law says CA can make the insurance companies make up the shortfall, and those companies can then pass those costs along to their other customers in the state.

            Perhaps, but there is also a rate increase moratorium. I don't know if one overrides the other.

            • by r0nc0 ( 566295 )
              That increase moratorium ended at the beginning of this year as this is when the insurers were going to be allowed in climate change risks.
        • by tragedy ( 27079 )

          That's an approximately 6% reserve to exposure ratio. Most insurance companies are around 8%. That's not really a particularly notable situation, especially since FAIR is state-backed in addition to those cash reserves and reinsurance.

      • That's not how this works. Taxes aren't used to fund the insurance; insurance premiums are. So, existing homeowners in other parts of the state will pay higher premiums to fill the fund. No taxes necessary.

        And really, that's about right. Too many people treat their homes like investments. Any financial pressure that can be placed on homeowners is a social good. Higher insurance, higher property taxes, etc.

      • by rskbrkr ( 824653 )

        The state will step in and fill in the void left by the insurers. Unfortunately to fund this they will have to *crank* up taxes.

        CA was facing a $68 billion budget deficit before NVIDIA saved their ass.

  • by shilly ( 142940 ) on Tuesday January 14, 2025 @12:58PM (#65088137)

    From 14m30s onwards, although not sure how accessible this is outside the UK: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/p... [bbc.co.uk]

    Discusses the fact that it will end up being insurers, not governments, who end up having to tell people the facts they don't want to hear about climate change being a reality, as cover becomes impossible to provide (and thus procure) for swathes of almost every country in the developed world, from the US to Spain to the UK.

    • by r0nc0 ( 566295 )
      And I would say this is exactly as predicted several decades ago - the political folks can't do it; it has to come from the insurance side - they don't lie.
      • by shilly ( 142940 )

        I'm not sure insurers are above lying from time to time. But truth can be seen - can't be hidden - in whether they do or don't offer coverage, and what they charge for it.

  • Fire Winds (Score:5, Insightful)

    by poptix ( 78287 ) on Tuesday January 14, 2025 @01:03PM (#65088153) Homepage

    It's almost as though you shouldn't build your home in a place where "fire winds" have been a known thing since the 1800s. Government probably shouldn't be subsidizing insurance for them either.

    • by rskbrkr ( 824653 )

      It's almost as though you shouldn't build your home in a place where "fire winds" have been a known thing since the 1800s. Government probably shouldn't be subsidizing insurance for them either.

      It's almost as though you shouldn't build your home in a place where earthquakes have been a known thing since the 1800s It's almost as though you shouldn't build your home in a place where hurricanes have been a known thing since the 1800s It's almost as though you shouldn't build your home in a place where tornados have been a known thing since the 1800s It's almost as though you shouldn't build your home in a place where floods have been a known thing since the 1800s It's almost as though you shouldn't

  • by Tony Isaac ( 1301187 ) on Tuesday January 14, 2025 @01:05PM (#65088167) Homepage

    The wildfires are terrible, yes. But insurers have been prevented for decades, from using fire risk data in calculating premiums. Instead, they have been required to use only past data for an area. https://www.msn.com/en-us/mone... [msn.com] So even if an area is a high risk for fires, if that area hasn't had a major fire *yet* then insurers can't charge appropriate premiums to reflect that risk. This law has now been changed, but probably too late.

    If people can't afford higher insurance premiums, they will be pushed to relocate to areas with lower risk. This is a good thing.

    Sometimes, regulation does more harm than good.

    • You're quite on point here. I know people who own homes in California who pay around $80 to $100/month which includes fire. In comparison, some friends of mine in places like Louisiana pay $400-$600/month for things like flood insurance, storm insurance, etc. Given the value of homes in CA compared to Louisiana, this seems like a very low rate comparably, and is a direct result of the State government not being able to regulate this market very well.

      But here's the other thing that's going to happen wh

      • by kenh ( 9056 )

        I know people who own homes in California who pay around $80 to $100/month which includes fire.

        No, you don't - what you describe sounds like "renters" insurance, you can't insure a stand alone residence in California for $80-100/month.

        But here's the other thing that's going to happen when this all settles: people do not update their insurance relative to the home values.

        Homeowners don't set the insured value on their home, the insurance company assesses a value and that is what is driving up insurance rates. I have never heard of a stated-value homeowners insurance policy, I suspect it is possible in certain circumstances (as a backup plan to a homeowner that is essentially self-insuring their home, as many very wealthy homeowners do

        • Indeed, insurers will sell you insurance for whatever amount you decide to pay for. https://www.libertymutual.com/... [libertymutual.com] When you are paying a mortgage, this option is not available to you because the bank decides how much insurance you must have.

        • by dgatwood ( 11270 )

          I know people who own homes in California who pay around $80 to $100/month which includes fire.

          No, you don't - what you describe sounds like "renters" insurance, you can't insure a stand alone residence in California for $80-100/month.

          That's actually only a little bit below the average for California, so yes, you can. You'll probably also want to add earthquake coverage, though, which will double that number. And if you're living in a fire-prone area, that number probably isn't even close. But that isn't completely impossible by any means.

    • by kenh ( 9056 )

      Voters passed a proposition to prevent insurers from raising premiums to match the risks they faced, and the insurers first stopped writing new policies, then stopped renewing policies, and the people that will suffer are the people that voted this all into being.

      They thought they beat the system, but they only hurt themselves.

  • The market struggles, or the bookies profit margins are hurt?

    Yeah, it's KIND of similar, but they BEEN profiting for decades

  • California residents can already expect premium increases of 40% or higher when you renew. This is due to insurance companies threatening to leave the state. The state enacted legislation to pass through the cost of re-insurance. Now with the wildfires in LA, premiums might double for everyone in the state.

    Going Bare - Not having homeowner's insurance. This is where we might be headed, at least for those who own their homes free and clear.

    Right now, there is no California state law requiring you to have hom

    • by kenh ( 9056 )

      Right now, there is no California state law requiring you to have homeowner's insurance. The requirement is forced on you when you have a mortgage by the bank.

      Yeah...

      I expect the state might make it a requirement for all homes regardless of whether they are free and clear or not, just to prop up the insurance companies losses.

      So homeowners need to buy homeowner insurance "to prop up the insurance companies"? Really?

      Just like there is a requirement for auto insurance.

      States require LIABILITY insurance coverage, auto lenders require COMPREHENSIVE coverage to cover theft or damage to a covered auto.

      You must have liability coverage to compensate victims when your car hits another car and/or hurts a person - that coverage is what the state requires.

      Liability coverage in the housing industry would cover people or property hurt/damaged BY THE HOUSE - is that really what we're tal

      • by hwstar ( 35834 )

        It will be sort of like health insurance in California. Everyone will be required to participate by having an active policy. You won't be able to pay your property taxes without a policy in force. If you can't pay your property tax, the city will place a lien on your home, and sell it out from underneath you to recover the cost of the property taxes.

        This is just like you can't register your car in California without an active insurance policy.

        Your wood-framed house will be viewed as a liability to your imme

  • CA dept of insurance regulates this. It sets prices, practices and coverage requirements. It's not really a free market, so the limitations make it impossible to offer insurances that would otherwise be available.

    The first approximation of a fix should be to abolish the department, but a better solution might be to create something like a set of standards for coverage verbiage to make it possible to commoditize offerings and make products comparable. All other limitations should probably be removed. A f

  • by kaatochacha ( 651922 ) on Tuesday January 14, 2025 @01:31PM (#65088287)
    Everyone: Hurray! My house value has gone up 300% over the past ten years!
    Also Everyone: I don't understand why my insurance coverage on total replacement has gotten so expensive!
    • ...and property taxes
    • by dgatwood ( 11270 )

      Everyone: Hurray! My house value has gone up 300% over the past ten years!
      Also Everyone: I don't understand why my insurance coverage on total replacement has gotten so expensive!

      That's a questionable way of looking at it. In practice, the value of your house hasn't gone up by 300%. The value of the land under it has gone up by 3000% and the value of the home has gone up by 30%. The actual cost of rebuilding the house in place has gone up, but that is likely to be only a fraction of the cost of the home, because a lot of the value comes from the location.

      • Thatâ(TM)s correct. Land especially in CA is the only real thing that appreciates. Your house depreciates (leave it alone empty for 5 yrs without maintenance and see what I mean). Insurance coverage should be calculated by how much it cost per sq-ft to BUILD your home on site. Not buy an equivalent on another lot.
  • by RossCWilliams ( 5513152 ) on Tuesday January 14, 2025 @01:58PM (#65088395)

    We need stories to demystify terrifying events. Claiming some elected officials could protect us from mother nature is one way of making sense of the world. The problem is that we need a story that supports our world view and people's world views are now largely incoherent. When there is no coherent explanation that reduces our terror, blaming politics is convenient. We have someone to blame for lack of a coherent story to tell.

    I suspect the reality is that adapting to climate change is going to be very, very expensive. And its really not clear that reducing emissions is likely to have much effect on that. Certainly no immediate effect. So the question is "who pays".

  • by jonwil ( 467024 ) on Tuesday January 14, 2025 @02:27PM (#65088525)

    Here in Australia, land gets assessed for bushfire risk and gets a BAL rating. The building codes then set down requirements for different levels of risk so that houses in bushfire zones are built in ways that reduce the risk. (e.g. in the highest risk areas you have to use non-flammable materials when you build)

    California should do the same and require that new builds in areas at risk of fires meet stricter building codes that will reduce the risk.

  • Insurance companies and people are gambling. The people PAY the insurance company hoping they DON'T EVER have a claim. The insurance companies take that money and hope the people NEVER have a claim. It's a win for the insurance company, and sometimes either government regulations (automobile liability insurance) or corporate rules (mortgage company requirements) REQUIRE the people to PAY the insurance company with everyone hoping there's no claim but the insurance company collecting the money in any even

    • Another pupil that doesn't get it, over here on the other coast my annual homeowner's is about 1/300th the value of my home. If even one local house needs rebuilt out of 300 the insurance only breaks even. That math simply doesn't work when the entire village burns down.
      • Yeah, well, the insurance company insures ALL the villages, so even if your whole village burns down, thousands of villages haven't, and the insurance company still makes out.

        See how that works?

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