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Analyzing the Analysts 70

Posted by Roblimo from the guarding-the-guardians dept.
Very cool, very deep story at Information Week about the IT "analysis and research" firms you often see quoted as authoritative sources in assorted media, and how accurate their predictions are - or aren't. A quote from the story: "The leading analyst firms have become so influential that their opinions can help IT chiefs gain senior-management approval for technology investments." Obviously, these firms carry plenty of weight. Should we be scared of their growing power? Or have they become an essential part of the computer and Internet business scene?
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Analyzing the Analysts More

Analyzing the Analysts

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  • Just want to add a few cents.
    I know several 'big' firms who provide their clients professional advisory on IT, like what kind of tech architecture you need, why you have to setup a web site to embrace eC.
    but i have to say few of those professional have first-hand experience, they just quote something from vendor's bullitin and benchmark data.

    The real problem here is that since the area is so complicated that few people can get an insight into it, how to solve a complicated problem in limited time and with limited resource.
  • While I appreciate the support meant by your post, The very fact that you can argue any point that you want shows that there is not a an order of magnitude difference between one product and the other in terms of what it can offer. Any time a position can be supported factually while another position in the same argument holds water just shows that 'from a distance, there is peace and harmony' and it doesn't matter *that* much. You'll never see the MacOS in server OS tests because it doesn't fit in the world of servers, but in the world of big-time servers, you can do all the things you need to lots of different ways.

  • I wonder how many of the "small, hungry, unknown" companies are reading Gartner while at the same time flying under their radar...
  • As far as I've seen, the free software movement took the analysts completely by surprise, and they're even now scrambling to catch up. But I wouldn't say the era of the analysis firm is a bad thing for the free software movement - it's more the other way around.
  • In my experience, these self-proclaimed IT Consulting Experts are just as platform-bigoted and dogmatic as the rest of us... maybe worse, because they're even more certain of their infallibility.

  • These are the guys that MS loves (Score:1)

    by Anonymous Coward
    Microsoft has been aware of analyst's influences for a long time. As a support tech at Waggener-Edstrom, MS's PR firm, I attended an in-house "PR Basics" seminar. One of the ideas stressed was that these type of analysts were the most important "influentials". If we could win over the analysts with MS PR, the press and the world would follow. There is a lot more credibility if an analyst is quoted the PC Week article, instead of "a spokesman for Microsoft".
  • I have used many different analyst companies while working for different organizations, and in every case I have seen, their advice was either obvious to any competent geek, or else just plain wrong (e.g. see above references to Linux). They all made predictions, but I have never seen any independent analysis of analysts predictions. This article promised some objective reporting, but failed to deliver. Too bad, it's something we really need.

  • It's worse than that. Consider the MIS degree. It used to be that companies wanted technical people. Now they want people to manage technical people. Instead of hiring a good sysadmin, they'd rather hire someone to rent a sysadmin.

    I suppose I shouldn't complain -- I wouldn't have my job if it weren't for A Big Company deciding that it is too expensive to hire people with technical skills. (Instead, it started a program with two additional layers of management and various contract negotiations and secretaries and the like.)

    I wonder, though, if the desire to save quick cash is going to bite some of these companies on the backside when something goes wrong and no one has the foggiest clue how to fix it. Sucks to fire all of the network guys, eh? Sucks to pay me $2000 to show up, type in three commands, and spend the rest of the day at home, wondering how many people you could have hired at $25 an hour to catch these things before they happen.

    The moral of the story? If you're renting brains to tell your company how to run its business, your company is in a heap of trouble. I'd short it.

    --
    QDMerge [rmci.net] 0.4!
  • Presenting a straight detailed truth and presenting material for mass consumption are two entirely different beasts. CNN is good at what they do -- but they must reach a very wide target market and in so doing must make compromises that may make them seem:

    a) stupid
    b) sweeping stereotypists
    c) not in the know

    Remember, they have to sugar coat their material and present it in such a way that it is accepted by everyone.
    ----------
  • Laugh. The only analyst material I have ever trusted is PCData; and only because the majority of their information is hard numbers.
    ----------

  • I've thought that IT analysis firms were a waste of money since the OS/2 debacle back in the early 90s. Go to your local library and get a PC Magazine from 1990 or 1991 -- you'll see dutiful reporting of the latest analysis firm announcement that OS/2 would supplant DOS in 2 years. Even when it was clear to anyone with a brain that Windows was going to beat the tar out of OS/2, the reports persisted.

    Why does this happen over and over again? Well, why do people buy Gartner Group reports? To learn that current trends are going to continue? Of course not; people buy these reports so that they don't miss the big changes, the ones that remake the face of their industry -- and which could put them out of business if they don't keep up with the rate of change.

    The problem is, the analysis firms make their judgements about what the Next Big Thing is by looking at the market leaders and asking what they are doing. On its face, this makes some sense; after all, who knows more about a market than the market leader? So the analysts work closely with IBM (in the old days) or MS (today), for example, to divine what's going to happen next in the OS marketplace. And the market leader, rationally enough, says "The Next Big Thing is our evolutionary upgrade product, which will add great features and preserve compatibility." So the analysts take demand for the current product, apply a fancy demand curve to it, and predict that the evolutionary upgrade will see exponential growth in demand over the next 3-5 years, and this is The Next Big Thing.

    The problem is, revolutionary change never comes from the market leader! It almost always comes from some small, hungry, unknown (or less known) firm that is less worried about cannibalizing current product lines than it is about building the absolute best product. But these are the very firms that fly under Gartner's radar -- because they're not the market leader yet. So Gartner leans on its old sources, which of course are going to predict that current trends will continue to follow a nice steady upward-sloping demand curve. Why would the market leader anticipate revolutionary change? The market leader will do anything to prevent revolutionary change!

    So the analysis firms lean on IBM advice on OSes right when Microsoft is about to eat IBM's lunch, they lean on MS sources right when Linux is about to clean MS's clock, and ten years from now they'll all be palling around with people from Red Hat (or whoever) when The NEXT Next Big Thing roars along and steals the spotlight again. And all the clueless PHBs in the world will scratch their heads and wonder how the high-priced analysts could have gotten things so wrong -- while the high-priced analysts scramble, two or three years behind the folks in the trenches, to get to know the geniuses du jour.

    Pretty sad. But if you're in the technology business and you can't take the time to really understand the technology you work with, or to muster up some love for the market you serve, you probably deserve whatever nasty fate befalls you by hiring megacorps to do your thinking for you.


    -- Jason A. Lefkowitz

  • The Big Six (or was it Big Five) consulting/ accounting firms (Andersen, etc.) and a bunch of others all peddle advice in the broader business areas, from "new product concepts" to "enterprise software deployment". This is a training ground for pre-MBAs and a dumping ground for post-PhDs tired of their specialization. The goal is to make a business case for IT.

    I think in a proprietary software world, all these IT pundits cheering Windows were probably right from a business sense. Microsoft was giving them just what they needed: a "good enough" solution that a predictable amount of dollars and that drone employees could handle, far better than a "quality" solution by a techie who might ask for a raise!

    BUT, Microsoft pushed the aesthetic limits of the techies way too far. The Open Source Code Development Model and related business models based on it are a direct result, I believe, of people's frustrations with Microsoft's inferior products, destruction of standards, "unfair" destruction of competition, etc. The best evidence is Judge Jackson's findings of fact [gpo.gov]. Open Source is for many of us, including the VCs, SGI, etc., is a revolt against the monopoly.

    IT analysts have to be business-minded, offering formularic "solutions" based on case histories. They could not have seen the Open Source revolt coming. The business case history wasn't there. Once open source models become an accepted business formula, the IT analysts will be out there peddling them as well.

    If all these info-brokers, and sites like Slashdot etc. continue in their way, I think the IT analysts might find themselves hard pressed for a job in the future as opinion, successful practice, etc., starts to permiate from the web itself. Karma!

  • "... and most people can usually tell the difference"

    Seriously. Have you ever dealt with management in any software or hardware companies? Besides those who were originally cs or engr graduates, I've found very few who actually know their stuff in the companies area of expertise. The good ones will establish good relationships with their "people" as well as sampling the industry using a variety of sources. Do they actually know their stuff? Not usually. They rely on trust and good relationships to keep the gears rolling in the right direction. This is why companies want managment with 5-10 years industry experience. That way discression is used wisely.

    Analyst firms have their uses. This is especially true for companies ready to jump on the internet bandwagon. If I was going to, say, rework a companies entire distribution network, I could probably go to an analyst (or two) to point me in the right direction. Of course they will have their biases and buyoffs -- but it's better than blindly testing a bunch of companies, especially if I don't know what prices to expect. Like IBM is going to tell me one of their solutions doesn't exactly fit my business model.

    As for market trends though, anyone taking what they say for an absolute is incredibly ignorant. It's like asking an economist how the economy will be in a year. They might be able to provide some insight into what direction your company may take -- but you have to question the motives of someone doing this for money. If an analyst told me to get into such and such industry I might wonder how many other people he or she gave the same advice. I might also wonder where his numbers are that are predicting trends, using numbers that could go either way. It's disconcerting to even think about what's going on in the mind of the group of people running these firms. Could they be receiving kickbacks from companies for shoving clients in their direction? Yes of course these firms live on reputation -- but they aren't going to look out for your best given a number of in company politics and motives (especially if they're backed by certain big businesses). In other words, they aren't directly tied to your success.

    So take their advice (if you need it), but tread lightly. Remember, analysts can provide insight, but they can't predict the future (no matter how many industry ties they have) :).
    ----------
  • I've noticed a lot of people I know in the professional field have moved from a technical position to a 'Market Analyst' position. Apparently they see the demand, and as far as I can tell, the workload is easier for much more money.

    Anyone ever read 'The Peter Principal'? (No relation)

    Levine
  • While we're on it, lets review the views on analyzing the analysts on slashdot.


    Oh damn, I'm really desperate for trying to post something on /. that would get me a Funny moderation.

    -PovRayMan
  • Perhaps there is a way. If I have a company and mindcraft publishes a report which is obviously flawed and people use this report in such a way (from a rival company) that I loose revenue can it be claimed that Mindcraft is in theory capable of libel against said company?
  • Usually this can be seen (not always) using the following method. Take the grain of truth from each of the opinions (for example: Linux is a stable operating system) and look at how many people with essentially nothing to loose say about it. Or even better perhaps some of the biased stuff. If someone can speak in a biased manner even this shows something about what the person thought. If people are saying the same thing on different pages using equally balanced sources it is usually right on the money that it is right.

    However there is an equal chance that someone based their opinion in a biased fashion from an unreliable source (for example Windows NT blue screens every 5 seconds and causes baldness, the plague, blights your family with bad breath for 10 generations, etc taken from an AC off slashdot or a post on usenet) then that can be perpetuated in a systematic fashion inadvertently unless the person in question uses a proper bibliographic method (MLA, Trabian, etc).
  • I looked at the article and then thought for a while about what exactly would this imply for anyone who actually picked good sources in the first place. There are plenty of sources good and bad in this world and most people can usually tell the difference. I could just as likely quote Abraham Lincoln or Adolf Hitler for something about what public policy should be towards our fellow men. As far as technology goes we should look for the people who have the best results and use as many results as possible to get a balanced view. I usually go on the web and get as much information as possible to do a report and then cite all these things in my decision. It shows objectivity and evenhandedness
  • Mindcraft can burn in a firey hell for all I care.

    Pity, tho, the poor IS team, headed by a CTO or CIO who has NO knowledge whatsoever, only a resume made up of accomplishments of his former underlings at previous employers. The same idiot who brings in these "analysts" to tell them what they need and which direction they should be going. And the poor guys, the only ones with a clue, are stuck implementing various levels of junk, garbage, and non-functional crap by night, and trying to keep it running during the day.

    The overall lack of knowledge is damagin, and scary.
  • ... you can argue any position you want. important is that you are smart enough to select the one that fits what you want and that you can argue it a bit yourself..it is not rocket science: buy into this technology and you pay for the next 10 years with no end or take this free piece of code and have the future wide open...

    mond.
  • Among amalysts there are good ones and bad ones. Just like any other field. Look at the new reporters. There are good reporters like the BBC and Salon, and there are bad ones like ZDnet.

    Please dont moderate me down to -99 (it'll hurt my karma) or start a flame war. Just trying to share my thoughts.

    Mark "Erus" Duell
  • Hashing things out in a public forum like this is a good source of information. I usually get a text copy of all (or most of) the stories that spill out from the maxium ammount of stories on slashdot. Then I take the material and use it in text format and make an outline from this to create an orderly system of thought that allows me to get and look at all the data at once. Kind of nice to see the whole chaos return to order at the end of the day.
  • Who is to say that all the rather occultish things don't have their place. The subconcious mind has the ability to process data in ways that allow for individuals to make decisions based on information that is gathered in ways we cannot detect or were conciously trying to avoid (an annoying co-worker, boss, whinny kid at the burger window). PS on a related note check out this [dumbentia.com] for something that might work.
  • On the one hand, we have pundits, analysts and experts.

    On the other hand, we have yarrow sticks, crystal balls and tea leaves.

    I know which I would place more trust in.
  • My questions to this then would be how do you know that your source on the web is accurate? Doesnt it again just come down to your point of view of the accuracy and/or the accuracy of you who have determined to be accurate?

  • Microsoft Shills (Score:2)

    by Anonymous Coward
    When you see these blown out claims that NT is advancing on the enterprise, and marketshare figures showing Unix is in decline, it's a fair bet that an analyst has invested heavily in Microsoft stock.

    These people have no system of ethics or checks and balances like lawyers or sports figures do, they do not dispute each other, nor is there any way for someone to verify their figures or findings. By and large I think they're mostly in bed with Microsoft as much as Ziff Davis is.
  • The problem with analysts, is that they are (more often than not) wrong. Even the most reputable of them suffer from this: witness Gartner perdicting the victory of OS/2 of Windows, witness Gartner and everybody else predicting the death of the PC and the rise of NC, witness most of them explaining away the Linux phenomenon behind a wall of corporate (== risk averse) logic. The have turned vision into a bean counting excercise ... the most surprising aspect of their existance however is the weight many a clueless person places on their guesses ...

    An other thing that ticks me off about them: they all seem to take MSs promises at face value, even though many things they announced never saw the light of day. Yet it is the Linux people who (according to them) have no roadmap.

  • The problem is not that analyst companies are gaining more power. The problem is that Advertising companies are thinly disguising themselves as analyst companies and then selling whatever results you want. Pay us money and we'll make your product look good. Anything for a buck.

    Fortunately in this informed age that sort of thing is likely to backfire. It's not like 5 years ago when any schmuck could start an Analyst company and make broad (and completely untrue) statements about any given product and ZD would pick it up and print it. These days, any schmuck can start an Analyst company, make broad and completely untrue statements which ZD then picks up and prints and then someone picks it up, posts in here on /. and 150,000 angry slashdotters flame them in E-Mail for the next two months.

    Isn't progress great?

  • Just out of curiousity I have heard banter around slashdot that CNN is quite probably a very biased and misinformed group. I have seen some of their stuff (I really don't have cable) and it looks good are there any specific findings that I can use to either confirm or deny these things. Or are they just uninformed about technology related things?


    I was interested about a possible mailing or web page that has information about intelligence data, national/international news, etc. I would thing that something like this would suppliment what I usually get from places like slashdot. I know of several speciality things but nothing that fits the criterion I have described. Just wondering.
  • Yes and no. Using the threat of coercive power isn't always necessary. Use varies as per managment position (middle and upper management isn't in direct line authority of so called underlings); type of work; hygiene factors; their job market; their pay; their work related knowledge et al.

    If you're unable to establish good relationships based on respect and friendliness, company influence, expert knowledge, or power to reward -- then obviously the only alternative left is to exact coercive power and strike fear into your employees by threatening discipline or firings.

    The problem is that this is very situational. However, remember that the manager may be just as bad for the job as the employees under him. So if you look at your situation and you see other alternatives -- maybe you should change your management style to do your job well.
    ----------

  • Here's The Problem (Score:5)

    by mochaone ( 59034 ) on Monday November 15, 1999 @02:24PM (#1530665)
    A great philosopher of the 1950's once said that too much "analyzation causes paralyzation". Yogi Berra might not have been talking about the IT industry when he uttered those words, as a matter of fact, historians have not been able to discern what he was talking about at all, but I digress; Actually, I have digressed to the point where I have to log out and regather my thougths. Fare thee well.
  • There's a reason it's an MIS degree instead of an ISM or SIM or SMI or whatever

    Management (or derivatives) is the first word.

    Information is 2nd.

    Systems is 3rd.

    That's pretty much the priority in the mindset of the 'MIS' folks I know.

    Management, red-tape, infrastructure, buzzwords, blahblahblah is what these people do. Information? Oh yeah, that's what we're trying to get out.
    Systems? Yeah, whatever that guy from MS said will do just fine....

    If IT/Tech departments *wanted* tech people, they'd come after CS types, instead of MIS folks.

    Why else (at least at my Uni.) do you think MIS is a business-school degree instead of an Eng./Tech. one?

  • I think sometimes it hurts you when you stay too long in school
    I think sometimes it hurts you when you're afraid to be called a fool

    Lou Reed / John Cale, "Trouble With Classicists", Songs for Drella

    We operate in a chaotic, incompetent industry. Sometimes something is the best innovation ever, sometimes it's a crock that we'll have forgotten in a year. Very rarely can you tell beforehand, and never without actually hands-on experience of it. Analysts operate on the unswerving assumption that everything can be analysed -- any admission that "we can't tell" is a sign of weakness. A "suit"'s greatest failing is that their whole ethos won't allow them to admit any fallibility.

  • Seems like the movers and shakers are just a bunch of sheep after all.

    These analyst firms get soo.. much wrong, in fact it's difficult to think of stuff that they got right.

    Jeez I thought the guys at the top were paid to think, not just be herded along with all the other schmucks.
  • IMHO that was the best post so far...

    I agree completely with your take on the parasitic nature of the analysts on the IT industry.

    I would point out, though, that there is a use for these parasites of the industry. Specifically to prevent management from being too nervous about a new IT initiative for the company.

    Those of us in who keep our "finger on the pulse" of the IT industry by the constant review of news and sites like slashdot, register, cnet, etc. may really have a better feel for where IT is going, but Clueless Executives are risk averse and prefer "informative research" that appears to have come from a "trusted source".

    Is slashdot a trusted source? Not for the clueless executive. What about yourself? No matter how much information you consume daily, what can you tell the Clueless Exec? "I surf the net for new industry developments and trends 10 hours a day via a DSL line connected directly to my optical nerve." Nope, doesn't fly.

    You are simply too cutting edge.

    The nervous CEO/MD/board member wants a BRAND name they trust. Gartner. Forrester. AA. Etc. They need the feeling they get from that brand. Trust, safety, history. All the words that send up red flags for those of us who Have A Clue.

    And anyhow, considering the conflicting reports available from these guys, you can always dig up a statistic or quote to support your (better informed) position. You never give them the whole report anyhow, right? Just an executive summary you prepared to save their time.



  • The best reports I've seen gave some detailed sources for data, as well as reasoning behind conclusions. That way, even if you decide that you don't agree, you have some data to back you up (and hopefully some references too)

  • Indeed, though I wouldn't quite put it that they are "mostly in bed with Microsoft as much as ZD", nearer to truth is that they don't really care one way or the other, as long as the corporates keep subscribing to executive summaries, forecasts and reviews: At home, used as tearsheets for the kitten's litter tray, is the PriceWaterhouseCoopers technology review for 1998; this weighty tome has duff forecasts in all fields of technology; a recent internal review has discouraged further use of these analysts.
  • Hmm.. well that may not necessarily be the case. Just narrowly focusing their focus. White I have nodoubt that NT is not for me or for most of the operations that require 100% reliability (or for that matter Linux even with RtLinux; I I have a heart monitor I don't want it crashing with a kernel panic or a Blue Screen of Death(tm)) I think that people even in the internet age have a hard time thinking that there is a world beyond their back doors. Besides my machine at home and another machine that I used for a brief period of time (about 1-2 years total and not in any admin capacity) I have never seen a big group of linux machines. In fact I have never seen any workstation class (simple desktop or computer lab machine) running linux that someone would have console access to. Now from these facts I could descern that MS stuff is almost the only operating system in the world. That linux is only something in my imagination or that I am hallucinating from want or something. Does this mean that I take this on my word. Conversely if I say work for Linux care and have a linux machine at home I could argue that the only OS and platform is Linux and that Windows 95/98/NT/2000beta are all just a horrible nightmare derived from some complex that thinks that I do not wish to succeed. It is only when I look to other areas and interview people: managers, sysadmins, CEOs, programmers, and such that I will find that true story. Even going to the library can be a stunning experience. What if the library is in a traditional city in Iran? Most likely I will not find data decrying Islam or Ala or If we went to Vatican City you wouldn't see a group of satanists.
  • The single best source of information available to managers, the one least frequently used, the closest one to them, is their colleagues, coworkers and employees. Frequently, coworkers have knowledge broad, or deep, or both, on subjects outside their immediate job description. These people may have real-world experience having used the products under consideration or worked on a similar project but no one asked them about it. The problem is that artificial barriers such as competition, fear, ignorance, and elitism prevent the exchange of information.

    I've harped on this before but it bears repeating: these organizations provide exactly the required service- making one an instant expert in time for the meeting- but nothing more. The wisdom and experience is acquired only by those who actually trudge across a mountain of documentation, suffer a test implementation, and sift through newgroup and listserv archives.

    A few months after the project is underway which individual will have a better understanding of the subject? Without question, the latter will be able to explain their decision and the reasoning behind it. The former will fall back on an empty appeal to what amounts to a marketing report. It's good to see that some of the managers cited in the article demonstrate an understanding of the limits of the analysis. It's more worrisome that so many others, not mentioned, blithely accept it as gospel.

    Aside, I'm a titled a Business/Systems Analyst but spend most of my time administering and supporting the projects we build rather than turning out white papers (something I'm required to do distressingly often). Am I biased? Yes, probably. Am I off target? Probably not.
  • There are a number of reasons why anything coming from a market research company should be taken with a pinch of salt.

    Firstly, there is the age-old problem of motivation. These guys are in it for the money, and will say whatever it takes to get them the most sales, sponsorship or consultancy fees. At best, you have to question the validity of research coming from a company subject to these pressures. At worst, people are being deliberately misled in the name of the good old bottom line.

    All the good things about academic research are completely lacking with these guys. You don't get anything like the level of rigour and peer review that guarantees the quality of most academic work. Market research organisations in general aren't interested in checking someone else's work because there won't be much profit repeating something that's already been done.

    There's also the issue of unequal publicity. Some studies get blown out of all proportion to their intrinsic worth. This can happen for a number of reasons, but usually because some big backer who likes the outcome throws the results everywhere in their publicity material for the next year. Either that or someone mentions it on slashdot. What's worse, the tendency is for more controversial or flawed studies to attract the most attention.

    Finally, most of the stuff I've seen from market analysis organisations is unscientific twaddle. They don't seem to know the first thing about performing simple regressions. They commit just about every possible statistical sin. Even if they did do some solid groundwork, this gets cut in any published material because the target audience wouldn't have a clue what it meant. This all adds up to pretty meaningless conclusions.

    The only reason I read market research at all is that it can give me a real competitive advantage to know exactly what all the bandwagon bozos are thinking.....
  • How can one be good as a "Market Analyst" when it usually takes a college degree. I must admit that it was easier to be a con man back in the good ol' days of yesteryear. All I had to do was put on a charming looking suit, top hat, and a cane and say I was a doctor/lawyer/business man/diplomat from England and they would believe me. Now we have become a credentiled(sp) society that has some wisdom. Usually we aren't taken in by smooth talkers but occasionally this can backfire on us bigtime. In industries such as the PC industry people have a higher level of startup information and consequently people are again taking other "at their word". I guess it could work however in the case of an other con it makes for a particularly nasty fall from the tower.
  • What if I get caught with absolute trash? If I publish something that could haunt me for 50+ years in my field of technical expertice? Do people like to live dangerously nowadays? What ever happened to job security? A little fear never hurt anyone in the pocketbook.
  • We (my firm) have made extensive use of published "independent" research in the course of our consulting work to our clients, our "value-added" is in making intelligent interpretations of this information. I've found that more often than not research is used by decision makers to insulate themselves from doing what they are supposed to be doing best . . . making decisions. Many operating managers are risk averse and given the choice between making a difficult/risky decision based on certain research sources/results that may fly in the face of their own flavor of conventional wisdom, they'll opt for a research source or an interpretation of that source that will justify a safe, and more likely lazy, decision.

    I won't say that this is true of all decision makers that depend on such research but in my experience this culture of cowardice does exist to a degree because its easier for many of these managers to regurgitate and react to information than to take it in, think critically about it and then make informed (sometimes tough & risky) decisions on it. The research itself varies in quality from vendor to vendor so if the decision maker is taking the latter approach to evaluation and implementation then the research that is of little value gets priced down or out of the market and in the end the analyst loses the necessary credibility to impact how or in what directions their clients will move.

  • AFAIK, market analysts are full of it.

    Just from the top of my head, two instances I remember quite well.

    The first one took place about the time Gigabit Ethernet specs were close to completion. The e-mail I saw with my own eyes was from one of the highly respect market research group. I din't save the whole thing, unfortunately. But its subject was something like this: Gigabit Ethernet is a horrible mistake. We have to explain all our clients that ATM is the only correct technology above 100Mbps Ethernet... Or something like this, I don't remember exact wording. I don't think I should comment on this.

    Another case took place about a couple of years ago. Once again, I was there. Few market analysts were discussing the fugure of portable computing, especially with respect of integrating mobile phones with PDA. The point they have made was
    'The future is Windows/CE as a platform'. Someone
    asked them 'And what about a PalmTop?' Their answer was something like 'We did an extensive market research and came to the conclusion that PalmTop has no future, and Windows CE is the only viable platform'. At the very moment I remember thinking 'Suckers! Extensive research, my ass. They've simply decided that 'you won't make any mistake with Microsoft'. What a bunch of idiots'.




  • OK, I already knew these people existed & were highly paid & used by corporations. I even used some of the free Gartner Group stuff for uni assignments. So what?

    I was really hoping to see a little more evaluation. Or at lease some critical focus. Who does watch these watchers? Do they need watching? Are they misusing their powers for Eeevill? It could have been so interesting, and it wasn't.

    I feel let down.

  • Eventually the generall public will catch on. It's unavoidable. Eather that or people will let us install what ever we want and charg what ever we like. "Oh yeah this 6402 running Forth is top of the line"
    [No insult to Forth and 6502.. if you ask me everyone should use Forth 6502 trainner].

    Basicly as long as someone is ready to gather information they need only be pointed in the right direction.

    Give em /. Linux Today Os Opinion and the pro Linux ZD articals and let nature take it's course.
    Don't be conforntational. Be a good little employee just helpping his boss be as informed as he can be.
    I wonder what Dilbert would say to this tactic?
    I picture Dogbert screaming "No thats dangerous.. he'll.. acually.. try.. to.. do.. somthing.."
    Computer blows up to show pointy haired boss sitting at it "I installed Linux.." :)

    your results may vary
  • If I am a boss in the traditional sense I will have to have fear to gain respect. People all know that I do little but If they feel that I have little competence then I become a real clown. Therefore one must cause fear in the subjects. Now granted a society based on fear is usually a bad thing but corporate culture is not society as we know it. Slavery and bondage (child labor, 18 hour work days) were common in the 19th and early 20th centuries because the culture was light years behind what the culture was like or tolerant of at the time. Now we see a resurgence of the ability of people to become more fallable or more vulnerable in some respects with feelings, opioions and the ability to ask questions. The phrase "there's no such thing as a dumb question" will eventually full incorporate itself into the culture of the work place.
  • What's interesting about analsyts to me is twofold. One, they're target audience is a group of senior "managers" often responsible for large technology projects. This group of managers has little (if anything) to do with the day-to-day implementation and hands-on management of technology; the last time they actually did anything with a computer may have been writing COBOL on a mainframe. In order to sell services to these people you have to be of a similar mindset and background.

    Hence, the analysts are often the same kinds of people -- managerial, disconnected from the kinds of daily use of technology that leads to true understanding.

    What's amusing is that the less these people know, they more they make. Vague, inaccurate predictions that don't come true only lead their clients further into the dark, where their clients need even *more* incorrect information. A vicious cycle.

  • Similar to the question is who manages consultants or small businesses? In certain cases this can be thought of as a undeniable of autonomy. If I sell lemonade on a street corner there isn't a group of people who directly supervise me in what I do. The same can be applied to the case of these companies and of individuals who use independent methods of capital gain. One of the reasons people go into consulting isn't for the money (totally) it's for the autonomy. If I worked for any stressful organization like the NSA, IBM, MS, or Satan I would consider doing something to break the barrier that separated me and the work that I love or giving me the problems that I hate.
  • Future job for Linux zellots as Linux consultents?

    The problem is thies industry experts are accually just Windows experts. A dangerous position to be in. If Microsofts market domonence is weakend to much they could be out of a job.
    Instead of worrying they just tell themselfs what they tell there clients... Microsoft is forever.
    But in reality if Microsoft is cut back to 55% of the market with everyone else holding the 45% thies experts won't be able to give "working" advice.
    [Working advice meaning advice that works to spite being wrong. This is enough to convence clients your right sence they can't see whats wrong unless it blows up in there faces]
  • I am an analyst. ;-) So, for what it's worth, I totally understand how folks have issues with us. My personal biggest beef is with the major consulting houses like Gartner and Forrester. Their market size information is totally bogus. Forrester, for example, has changed their tune on how big the 'web hosting' market size is twice in three months. And if you look back in time, you can see that markets these guys predicted would be huge wound up not even existing. (remember Push and the whole buzz aroung PointCast a couple years back?)

    But there is definitely a place for analysts. If you don't have the staff to do the research and planning cost-effectively in-house, it makes good sense to outsource it to people who do it professionally. Considering how tight the labor market is for information workers, it may even be cheaper in the long run!

    And it was analysts who helped Linux get some form of respect on the Street back when Red Hat went public and such. If analysts really were in the pocket of MS, there is no way they would have said Linux has a real market on the server, considering that MS has been pushing NT server hard-core for years....

    Just MHO
  • The reason to subscribe to Gartner, IDG or any other profile is to gain insight where it my dangerous and expensive to tread. Unlikely will you see someone be able to implement 4 different SAN solutions and hope for the best one or undertake the building of enterprise server farm to determine if Novell, NT, Solaris or Linux fit their organzation best. As long as people use it much like a book, "Glean information and synthesize", which most people will do. We will not worry.

    Hangtime
  • The biggest group of mistakes that these folks make is making static projections. OSI was developed to be the best network protocol. Token Ring was clearly better than ethernet. Unix was dead.

    Unfortunately for the crystal ball gazers, the "inferior" technologies had major strengths that were overlooked. They had an installed base with a lot of people who were interested in how they work and they were extremely flexible and could be updated easily to meet newer demands.

    In a reasonably fair fight, the more resilient technology will emerge victorious.

  • You're contradicting yourself.
    - analysts predict the death of the PC and rise of NC
    - analysts seem to take MS promises at face value

    Perhaps your brush is too broad. Do you find it more easy to remember predictions that were wrong rather than predictions that were right? I do.

    --LP
  • These analysts always reminded me of fortune tellers. Like most palm readers and crystal ball gazers, they're primarily selling their own services, and they know that the most effective way to do that is to tell the customer what they most want to hear.

    Most PHBs still want to hear that Microsoft provides the lowest risk solutions, so what do you know, that's exactly what they're told.

    Douglas Hofstadter had an interesting article on fortune tellers in Metamagical Themas, which you should all own anyway.

    Bruce

  • I know people can be fired but is it also possible for the company to sue a decision maker if they make a stupid decision say perhaps put half the company's money into a portugese goat milk factory? Go with the wrong app for the project? It seems that if you do something wrong (to a degree) that perhaps they cannot do anything more. Or maybe just wishful thinking.

  • Most dangerous if management mistrust their staff (Score:4)

    by judd ( 3212 ) on Monday November 15, 1999 @03:05PM (#1530696) Homepage
    A former boss had a regular subscription to Gartner Group reports. He would always favour Gartner advice over our own.

    This was especially weird, since we were a small New Zealand university, and about as far away from the environment that these reports were written for as one could imagine.

    The underlying problem was that the boss (as bosses will) had lost touch with the technology, and was paranoid that his staff were trying to pull one over on him. Rather than taking the high road - building a workforce he could trust - he took the low road of ignoring their advice in favour Gartner's. Result: poor decisions based on advice that was never really relevant to our circumstances.

    While we were building cheap effective linux based solutions that actually worked - see, that mistrust had become justified :-( - he would be telling us how an NT only world was "inevitable", and pointing to Gartner to back it up. (Remember how anti-Linux Gartner used to be 2 years ago?)

    Analyst reports have their place as preliminary reading before you do your own research, or as a second opinion. If you don't have time to do you own research, and you haven't hired someon whose judgement you can trust, you are not taking things seriously, and deserve whatever you get.

    I remember long ago at University learning that there was no subsitute for primary sources. Secondary sources are only ever there to get you up to speed. Treating secondary sources as though they were reliable was always a recipe for disaster.
  • > I know which I would place more trust in.

    Right. None of either group has a clue, but the yarrow sticks, crystal balls, and tea leaves usually aren't on some 900-pound gorilla's payroll.

    --
    It's October 6th. Where's W2K? Over the horizon again, eh?
  • Isn't this the conflict the analysis firms are trying to resolve: one wants the analyzation but one doesn't want the paralyzation that comes from doing it yourself?


    Another conflict: is the era of the analysis firm a good or a bad thing for the free software movement? It might be a good thing, in that the analysis firm can break the `no-one ever got fired for buying Microsoft' mentality of the conservative corporate buyer, but it might be a bad thing because free software lacks the institutional champions of proprietary software, and so might not show up on the analyst firms radars.

  • The network computer might still happen. The premature announcements of the era of the network computer were wrong because some insignificant technical obstacles turned out to be less insignificant than they first seemed.
  • Here's a quote from a Register [theregister.co.uk] article:
    Although attention has been focused on Rambus because of Intel's failure to ship product supporting it, Richard Gordon, senior memory analyst at Dataquest Europe, thinks that it will eventually pull through. He said that technologies such as DDR, a souped up version of PC100/PC133 memories, were likely to disappear. "DDR is really just an interim measure on the way to Rambus," he said. "It's not as scaleable." The interim technologies were likely to appear and disappear. His view is that over the next three quarters the market is likely to see Rambus memory technology start to appear in some volumes. "Sooner or later, Rambus will win out," he said. And he expects it to become the mainstream technology by the end of next year.
    Now - either he has no idea of the problems Rambus currently faces, or he has a vested interest in talking up the price of Rambus, Inc. I think Analysts should stick to analysing P/E ratios, and avoid technology that they don't understand. J

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