America's 'Retail Apocalypse' Is Really Just Beginning (bloomberg.com) 398
An anonymous reader quotes a report from Bloomberg: The so-called retail apocalypse has become so ingrained in the U.S. that it now has the distinction of its own Wikipedia entry. The industry's response to that kind of doomsday description has included blaming the media for hyping the troubles of a few well-known chains as proof of a systemic meltdown. There is some truth to that. In the U.S., retailers announced more than 3,000 store openings in the first three quarters of this year. But chains also said 6,800 would close. And this comes when there's sky-high consumer confidence, unemployment is historically low and the U.S. economy keeps growing. Those are normally all ingredients for a retail boom, yet more chains are filing for bankruptcy and rated distressed than during the financial crisis. That's caused an increase in the number of delinquent loan payments by malls and shopping centers. The reason isn't as simple as Amazon.com Inc. taking market share or twenty-somethings spending more on experiences than things. The root cause is that many of these long-standing chains are overloaded with debt -- often from leveraged buyouts led by private equity firms. There are billions in borrowings on the balance sheets of troubled retailers, and sustaining that load is only going to become harder -- even for healthy chains. The debt coming due, along with America's over-stored suburbs and the continued gains of online shopping, has all the makings of a disaster. The spillover will likely flow far and wide across the U.S. economy. There will be displaced low-income workers, shrinking local tax bases and investor losses on stocks, bonds and real estate. If today is considered a retail apocalypse, then what's coming next could truly be scary.
Sears (Score:2)
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Sadly - but not surprising - they increased most of their prices before the liquidation began, so their "20% off everything" is a faux bargain. So, it might take a bit longer, as most consumers aren't falling for it.
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>Sadly - but not surprising - they increased most of their prices before the liquidation began, so their "20% off everything" is a faux bargain.
One of the reasons I've rarely shopped at Sears is that this has always been their business method for as long as I can recall. The deepest discount you tend to find at Sears still leaves you paying more than you would if you looked elsewhere.
They presented themselves as a mid-range department store, but operated like one of those shady junk stores with "GOING O
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The executives all got large bonuses, the workers got screwed along with anyone who bought something with a warranty.
Re: Sears (Score:5, Insightful)
Why not just look at the price and stop worrying about everyone else and whether they got a better deal? Why do you care if an item is 20% off of $12.50 or it's $10? Is the product worth $10 to you? Buy it. Fuck the posted discount rate. Ignoring sales, coupons, discounts, et al, is part of being a responsible shopper.
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Why Did Sears Drop Hardware/Tools in Canada? (Score:3)
That worked like a charm when they closed the sears hardware by me. Everything was long gone by the time the real discounts appeared.
[sigh] I remember when Sears Canada sold hardware. Good quality Craftman hand tools and power tools. Then sometime in the late 1990s, all the Sears stores in Canada seemed to drop their great hardware and tools, and from there it was a competitive race to the bottom selling appliances (against Best Buy, Leons, Bad Boy, The Brick, Home Depot, Lowe's) and women's fashions (against the rest of the tenants in the shopping mall).
Sears, at one point, couldn't be beat. It used to be that if Sears sold it under the
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Need I say more?
I count six Sears department stores operating within a 30-mile radius near me. That's not including the additional Sears outlet stores.
What exactly was your point again?
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Cool story, bro. http://money.cnn.com/2004/11/1... [cnn.com] Kmart still bought it. They then merged into Sears Holding. Still owned, bought by Kmart. So the original point still..stands. Actually.
If you, however, actually really sort of look at the heart of the specific matter, than you will in time realize that many, if not all, of the additional - dare I say, superfluous - words that you are choosing to occasionally pepper throughout your comment, probably are not strictly necessary.
Re:Sears (Score:5, Insightful)
Many people used to buy Craftsman tools due to high quality (compared to almost any other consumer brand) plus the lifetime warranty - the math made sense. But for years now the majority of Craftsman tools for sale are made in China ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org] ), the quality has plummeted to Harbor Freight levels, and every time you get a warranty replacement the quality drops. Normal MBA thinking - how can I goose profits this quarter, and my golden parachute will carry me out the door when things go bad. This thinking across American business is whats killing American retail. Why buy crap from Sears or Wall-Mart when I can get slightly better crap faster on Amazon? Or if you don't mind waiting, roll the dice and order your crap directly from China. Related, no connection or affiliate code - I don't go to hobby stores any more, I go to https://hobbyking.com/ [hobbyking.com] . Sure, sometimes the parts that arrive are bad, but most of the time its exactly what the local store offers, at 1/3 the price. If people (in general) don't want (to pay for) quality, and business managers don't care about killing the business, then everything is short term now. Silly people don't realize that trickles down to their own jobs. Or already has.
Re:Sears (Score:4, Insightful)
his thinking across American business is whats killing American retail. Why buy crap from Sears or Wall-Mart when I can get slightly better crap faster on Amazon? Or if you don't mind waiting, roll the dice and order your crap directly from China.
In related news, China's dictator recently announced a crackdown on fraudulent Chinese sellers to overseas markets. If ordering direct from China stops being a risk, look out US retail! Even Amazon will be threatened.
Re:Sears (Score:5, Insightful)
I need to hurry up and film a zombie film in our local Sears before they close they place down completely.
Going in there is creepy as hell.
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There are already a few businesses called S-Mart. Hell, I pass one (a convenience store) on my way to work every day.
Re:Sears (Score:5, Informative)
They are dead in Canada, finished, no more Sears.
Re:Sears (Score:5, Interesting)
Sears killed itself by over-pricing it's competitors so that shouldn't be a surprise. When you can buy a snowblower from canadian tire for $300 and you can walk out the door with it and sears is selling the same model for $700 that will come in 4 days. It's pretty easy to see what's going to happen. Same with major appliances, clothing, and so on. Round that out with the absolute worst customer service around? It was one compounding stupid error on top of another.
Kinda like Target when they opened up here. Far too many stores, no inventory chain, hugely overpriced compared to their competitors. Many cases the store shelves were empty and they had no product to sell at all. Then there was the belief by the CEO that Canadians would "pay whatever we tell them to pay for goods." Sorry guys. The middle class in Canada is already stretched to the breaking point, that's not how it works.
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To be fair here, Sears's problems are in part due to the mismanagement of their randroid CEO, not just the issues facing retail as a whole. They could be doing better, if they weren't being run into the ground. Compare Sears/Kmart to Target for example.
Re: Sears (Score:2, Informative)
A follower of the philosophies of Ayn Rand, which, when you apply some very basic critical thinking skills, fall apart rather fast, and which should be grown out of by teenage to young adult years.
They appeal well to the narcissist, because they stroke his or her ego by saying that they're more important to the driving of the economy than the workers who support them, and that the poors would be successful if only they weren't so damn lazy. But reality tends to be the opposite, with those worse off usually
Re: Sears (Score:5, Interesting)
The philosophy of actual socialism is that helping everyone results in a better society.
Instead of only getting the benefit of genius's who come from wealthy family, you get the benefit of all genius's- even those born in poverty because you provided them food for their brains to grow, education for their brains to reach full potential, and reasonably equal opportunity for them to express their genius when they are adults.
As opposed to the alternative which is that the genius's from poor families are replaced by average (or even sub-average) people from wealthy families.
The U.S. is not a meritocracy and hasn't been for about 5 generations. Many of the good and important jobs are virtually inherited by the children of people who were brilliant. The son of a senator is a senator. The son of an actor pushes out other better actors who are not the son of an actor.. The sons of judges are lawyers or judges and so on.
it helps the kids, but it hurts the country.
Socialism mitigates that tendency but can't erase it. But the relation between child and parent wealth is lower in socialist countries. In the U.S. it's highly correlated these days.
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None of your assertions are backed up by evidence. Capitalist countries win more Nobel Prizes, publish more science, and have more technical innovation. So socialism is not better at harnessing genius. If anything, socialism makes nepotism worse. Cuba is ruled by the brother of the previous leader. NK is ruled by the son of the last leader, and the grandson of the one before that.
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Because he ruined the entire company via libertarian business policies. Internal departments were told to compete against each other, leading coworkers to undermine each other.
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The amazing thing about Sears (and Penny's, too) was that they started 100.00% as mail-order only.
It wasn't until later that they felt a need to go brick-and-mortar - but they still kept their catalog business.
Amazon shouldn't exist - Sears should have had an easy transition from mail/phone orders to https:// sales.
Crazy!
CAP === 'calcuim'
Re:Sears (Score:5, Insightful)
Need I say more?
It's a little ironic that Sears is on the way out these days. A big part of their business used to be the Sears Catalog for mail order. They were basically doing what Amazon is doing before the Internet existed!
Lather. Rinse. Repeat. (Score:5, Insightful)
"...There are billions in borrowings on the balance sheets of troubled retailers...The debt coming due, along with America's over-stored suburbs and the continued gains of online shopping, has all the makings of a disaster."
Thousands of balloon/ARM mortgages approved for unqualified borrowers also had all the makings of a disaster back in 2008 too.
There's a common trait in the human race that spans thousands of years; a propensity to never fucking learn.
And over-stored is right. It's ridiculous just how many damn choices there are within a mile-long stretch of suburbia. No wonder so many are closing.
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If the going is good why not expand. Bacteria do it, humans do it, companies do it, shares dealers do it.
One of these things is not like the other.
When ruthless Greed is compared to mindless bacteria that only know how to do one fucking thing, the real disease that will destroy us, is Ignorance.
One would have thought the most advanced species on the planet would be more capable of preventing it's own destruction. Guess not.
Bricks and Mortar can't compete (Score:5, Interesting)
Here's the thing - I'm old. Not ancient, but middle-aged. So I'm probably not expected by younger people to be comfortable with the latest technologies and customs, right?
Except when I'm buying things I check Chinese websites first, because the stuff I could buy from a local retailer is generally 1/3 the cost if I get it direct from China, and it's generally the same damn item, only with a lot of unnecessary middle-men removed from the equation. Cutting out a couple of warehouses, an extra trip on a truck, and a whole chain of office and retail workers saves quite a bit of overhead.
For me that's usually just low end electronics stuff that'll fit in an international mail envelope, but there's all sorts of other stuff, too. Hell, you can get tailored clothing for the price of local off-the-rack stuff.
Retail is having the same issue the cable television industry is having - the economics have changed and they haven't found a way to adapt. I don't need to drive to a big box store or a mall to pay 300% more for something when with a bit of patience it comes to my house for a lot less.
Re:Bricks and Mortar can't compete (Score:4, Insightful)
The root cause is that many of these long-standing chains are overloaded with debt -- often from leveraged buyouts led by private equity firms.
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Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain...
err.. it was Unions that killed Hostess..
Re:Bricks and Mortar can't compete (Score:5, Interesting)
I could go down to Curry's or M&S for something but chances are they aren't going to have it and if they do, its not in stock. So for things I dont need to measure, I'll buy online because they at least have it in stock. The big exception for me is clothing, but even that is changing.
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There was something on the radio about how online clothes retailers are starting to offer virtual mannequins that use your measurements to preview clothing and suggest the right size.
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The big problem with shopping for clothes online is that you need to know your own measurements. This is fine when ordering T-shirts (come to think of it, I haven't bought a T-shirt from a B&M store in a while) where all you're worried about is M, L, XL, 2XL and SM (Small Marquee) but for business attire, I need to know at a minimum my arm/leg length as well as my collar/waist, even more if I want made to measure.
IIRC, you're also
Re:Bricks and Mortar can't compete (Score:5, Interesting)
Except when I'm buying things I check Chinese websites first,
Exactly this. A lot of companies didn't realize that I can cut out a lot of layers by just going to the country where they're making their goods.
Most of my purchases fall into one of two categories: I need it soon or I'll play with it when I have time.
So most of my shopping is Amazon or Aliexpress. In years past Aliexpress' orders would have gone to Radio Shack but they removed that part of their store a long time ago. Now I'll browse for something neat, order it and play with it when it arrives. I order Arduino Nanos by the 10 pack. It's not worth trying to do PCB development for a $3 one of them costs.
For stuff like toilet paper or something I could use in a few days Amazon will have it to my door in 2 days.
The end result is I end up buying a lot more local products. Saving money at Amazon and Aliexpress means I can go to local art fairs, stop by local shops and buy something a local craftsman made. The best knives I own have no brand name. They're some old guy that has no internet that has been making knives in his tiny rural house for decades. I am more than happy to give him money in exchange for a great product.
If something is going to come from China there's no reason I should be paying Walmart's rent, taxes, and Walton's salaries.
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Yea, I bought a nice 4k computer monitor from Taiwan. It was a LG that failed QC (possibly not black enough, up to 15 dead pixels, etc; I use it for programming so black isn't an issue and if you can find 15 dead pixels on the 4k monitor, I'll give you $20 :) ) so I got it for about a third of the price of an equivalent LG and got to watch it ship from Taiwan to the US and my door. It was well packaged so no damage the to monitor and it's almost 2 years now and it works so well that if it does fail, I'll im
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In the UK you have better rights when buying stuff online too. Due to "distance selling" regulations you have two weeks to return the item for any reason, or no reason. You just pay return shipping, unless it's faulty or not as described.
Not many shops will let you return stuff for two weeks. Makes taking a chance on some Amazon or eBay item a lot safer, because if it does turn out to be total crap you are at worst out the shipping. And you can ship almost anything for under a fiver via My Hermes these days
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I've found that most Aliexpress shops will bend over backwards to accommodate you. It's usually just cheaper for them to send you another product than to deal with the fallout of a 'bad review'. (It also means the reviews are worthless since everyone just 5/5 and moves on).
I had bad PCB on my CNC machine I bought, the vendor sent me an entirely new upgraded PCB off of nothing other than "This is broke."
They're also catching on to the fact that brands and quality do matter. There have been a lot of new brand
Re:Bricks and Mortar can't compete (Score:5, Insightful)
BINGO. 10 years ago, online was often junk while retail was quality items. Now, retail sells the same garbage items that the online stores do. There's no differentiation any longer. You can see this when you go to sears.com or walmart.com and half the products are "online only." They are all trying to be Amazon.com. The retailers that survive will be the ones that stop trying to compete in the "race to the bottom."
Sears is the my favorite example. People used to buy Sears appliances, even though they were overpriced, because Sears curated the models with the best reliability and offered longer warranties and local service. Now, Sears products are just rebranded versions of the mid-range to low-end items, they don't have better warranties, and service is now farmed out to 3rd-parties. If the item is 50lbs then you often have to mail it out for service. I am totally okay with paying 200% to get something that lasts twice as long. But so far, I don't know who offers me that any longer.
Apple is one company that isn't competing in the race to the bottom, and is doing well with that approach.
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The best consumers can do is avoid bad retailers, buy cheap, and force companies to honor their warranties.
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Retail is having the same issue the cable television industry is having - the economics have changed and they haven't found a way to adapt. I don't need to drive to a big box store or a mall to pay 300% more for something when with a bit of patience it comes to my house for a lot less.
Businesses can only adapt so quickly because sudden, big reactions prompt panic from investors and that tanks the whole company--if they can't borrow money, they can't run.
Example: here in Houston, the oil and gas industry has had multiple rounds of layoffs, even though oil prices stabilized shortly after the big crash two years ago. Why are they still firing people if they have settled? Easy, they never finished and it was part of the plan. If you needed to cut 20,000 workers, you can't do that in one da
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Actual Bricks and Mortar Can Compete (Score:4, Interesting)
Sears kicked ass for years because they owned their own real estate and they were able to offer competitive prices. They'd already have gone under if they hadn't kept their trucking fleet, although they had to change the name on the side of the trucks [nypost.com] because nobody wanted to see a Sears truck.
They were already failing before they started selling real estate, though, which they started doing specifically because they couldn't cover their operating expenses otherwise. And they were failing not because they couldn't compete with the internets, but because they didn't try. They compromised customer service, which was what got people through the door. They also compromised quality, for instance Craftsman tools have been going downhill for years. So why would you bother to go in there?
I also wonder how much money Sears has spent on their agonizingly awful e-commerce site. It does tend to carry pretty much everything, but it has pretty much everything at the highest prices anywhere. When you add to this the fact that it's one of the worst sites on the interwebs, it's easy to see why nobody uses it.
I, for one, fell out of love with Sears years ago, when I was just getting acquainted with powered yard equipment and found that they wanted about 400% of reasonable parts prices. More recently, I had a problem with them not wanting to honor a warranty. Sears changes model numbers on products which haven't actually changed every year so that they don't have any stock to make warranty replacements with, so that they can dick you around. Is that really cheaper than just doing business properly? Who knows. But fuck 'em.
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And as long as more than one in three of them works you're coming out ahead!
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I'd rather not add to the local landfill if I don't have to, so if I was actually getting a 50% failure rate I'd stop shopping as I do.
I started off with an attitude of only buying things that were inexpensive enough I wouldn't be too upset if they went straight from the mailbox to the bin, but I have yet to get anything faulty from China. More cheaply made than anticipated because I never saw the thing in person first, yes... but overall I have far more buyer's regret from local purchases than over stuff I
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I didn't know you lived in Africa [dailymail.co.uk].
Others report it being worse, so I think you've been lucky so far.
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Got any links to the Chinese goods? And the clothes?
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Oh, they can compete. They just have to compete on customer service instead of price. Case in point: Apple retail, which have been the most profitable retail chain per square foot for what... a decade? Longer?
Yeah, I can find a cheaper phone from some no-name vendor that drop-ships from china. But if the thing craps out on me, I'm just SOL. With Apple? I've had three hardware issues with iPhones that weren't my fault. (A flakey button on a 5, and I got bit by the 6s' battery issue twice.). Every time
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Yes and no. There is advantage of buying retail as I can examine what I am buying, even small connectors. Yes, you can get stuff cheap on the internet but if it is a "cheap item" that is too cheap, then it becomes useless and goes straight to the trash (why waste time getting something you can't use?). On the flip side especially here in Silicon Valley, traffic is horrible including weekends. It takes ***one hour*** to go to each store (many traffic lights, negotiating parking) but stores don't seem to carr
Re:YOU Are a neo-communist. (Score:5, Informative)
"You compared prices in foreign countries not on par with labor in your own."
the labor was foreign either way. only the middlemen and executives were American.
"You subverted Tariffs that would have protected domestic value to an appreciable degree."
He made no mention of avoiding tariffs, taxes, or import duties. Only that he bought directly from the source, which is perfectly legal to do.
"You bought something of casual or leisurely nature, ignoring the state of the arts locally around."
he's not buying a Chinese knockoff of something. He's buying the actual product. Just skipping the middlemen.
3000 net closings is not an apocalypse (Score:4, Interesting)
So 6000 people lose jobs, across the nation thatâ(TM)s not that bad especially given that most of those can easily find spots in other retail stores.
The problem is lack of service, how many times can you try to go to Sears only to find a long line at the single cashier and nobody to help you with anything. Then whenever you have a $5 discount, the entire companyâ(TM)s management needs to be involved in approving it. Then returning it is an entire level of Danteâ(TM)s Inferno unto its own.
Newegg/Amazon will ship you at the discounted price and if youâ(TM)re not happy with it take it back no questions asked.
Re:3000 net closings is not an apocalypse (Score:4, Informative)
It was 6800 stores, not 6800 people, and many of the ones being mentioned were department stores (e.g. Macy’s, J.C. Penny, etc.) that could easily be employing hundreds of people apiece, so we’re not talking about just 6000 people. Even places like American Apparel, which is closing all 110 of its remaining stores, averaged about 22 employees per store. The Mom & Pop place my wife works (which is thankfully doing quite well, since they depend more on service than sales) only has two people in the front at any given time, but between people in the back, support staff, and people not scheduled to work on any given day, they actually employ around 10 people, which you’d never realize by just walking in.
And the trend towards closures has been rising in recent years. The linked Wikipedia article mentions that between 25% and 50% of America’s 1200 malls are expected to close within the next five to six years. Sears has closed nearly 2000 stores in the last few years. Kmart has closed about 1500 in the last decade, with more to go.
Suggesting it’s just 6000 people is a gross underestimation.
We need showrooms not stores. (Score:5, Interesting)
I think the biggest change is that we are no longer really looking for stores, but showrooms. We need a place where we can go and look at the products, touch them, see if they do what they are meant to do. Then we can buy them online. These showrooms may have some small stock but their revenue will be from renting space to the company to showcase their products.
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Ask the Gateway stores how well that worked out for them...
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Gateway's problem wasn't its business model; It was their complete lack of scruples. Gateway was a dirty company that tried to screw over small business owners with dirty dealing, etc. The world is a better place not having to deal with Gateway.
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I've been comparing Japanese retail to UK retail for years and they seem to have solved a lot of the problems that making shopping in the UK a generally crappy experience.
Their range is as varied as online retailers, and they usually have what you want actually in stock. You get to make a genuine choice of which model you want, and then they have it in every available colour as well. I'm not sure how they do it, but it's not like the UK where they generally have two or three options max, and one of those is
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What's more, they can see you!
How about small nimble businesses (Score:2)
I know I run a small soda fountain pharmacy and I find that my customers (which cross nearly all age and racial categories) seem to prefer our knowledgeable and caring staff that somehow provides more service while charging less. Maybe consumers are learning that big box stores don't actually care about them. Just my perspective.
it's a temporary gap. (Score:5, Interesting)
there is a tremendous amount of real estate consumed by retail outlets, which frankly are of far diminished use than in previous decades. if someone can order something on Amazon and get it delivered to their door in a day or two, there's little reason to get in the car and drive to a store. this works well for a huge chunk of your average person's shopping.
in terms of the employment impact: those affected skew young or low income. and the jobs aren't merely shifted to a different country or location -- most of them are no longer necessary at all. for now, at least, most warehouses and shipping hubs rely on human labor, but that work represents a small fraction of the manpower a proportional retail store would have employed.
it's a problem, but in my opinion, likely a short-term one. i foresee a dramatic upswing in remote, online employment across the board, as online communication and interaction tools mature, and a willing and capable labor pool emerges -- a pool of young people to whom this technology is as effortless and natural as walking.
an optimist might even suggest that this would allow people to more easily aspire to niche occupations and careers that they would have otherwise been unlikely to achieve due to geography. In the past, if you wanted to work in the pinball industry, you had to live in Chicago. If your passion was recording music, you'd almost have to move to Los Angeles or NYC to make a living at it.
Today, there are artists who draw playfields for Stern Pinball without setting foot in Chicago. and my brother does mixing and mastering remotely over the internet for people all over the world.
just like those brick and mortar sales, the job market isn't going away. it's just going online.
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That's absolutely true. We force brick and mortar retailers to build more parking than the market thinks is necessary, and we mandate minimum setbacks, maximum floor area ratios, and height limits, and if stores don't meet these arbitrary requirements that drive up their building costs and property taxes, we don't let them build at all.
In the end, the only retailers who can afford to navigate these regulations are big-box chain stores wh
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totally. and when you did drive your F150 down the aisle, they got mad! total hypocrites.
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i'm serious! this internet thing could turn out to be something important!
Retail experience (Score:4, Insightful)
Apple stores are doing just fine. But Apple stores are about the experience, much like a movie. Going to Sears or Target or Walmart is like taking a dump. You have to do it so just get it over with and get back to your life.
One reason restaurants are still hot is because they can be an experience. If more small retailers began to understand that it's not about inventory it's about the experience maybe we can get things turned around. Adding things like customer education (advice on accessories for clothing, for example), and of course competent employees (who are actually permitted to help the customer) are always welcome too.
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like taking a dump. You have to do it so just get it over with and get back to your life.
Freud might disagree with you.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]
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"Apple stores are about the experience . . ."
Here's my experience. Apple stores are filled to the brim. Good luck trying to talk to someone. A couple years back I wanted to buy a Macbook Pro for my wife. After waiting 30 minutes to talk to a "genius", I asked him what is the difference between the regular Macbook pro and the "retina" version. His response, "the retina is for graphics designers".
That was my last trip to the Apple store.
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Anyhosen, it may appear this way of you live in the city, but if you actually like food, and can cook, your options for eating decent food at a restaurant start to reduce dramatically the further you get from a major city.
Most humans live in or near a major city.
I don't, so I cook a lot. But I have done, and then I cooked less, much to my detriment. Still, it is typical.
Costco says wut? (Score:5, Insightful)
On the weekends, Costco usually has 10 lanes of cash registers with 10 people in line each, with baskets loaded to the top, followed by long long lines to pass by receipt checkers to exit the building...The downfall of "retail" isn't all about Amazon.com and online clicks, it also includes the rise of these warehouse stores that sell superior quality produce and products (except for their accidentally unauthorized jewelry and slightly obsolete electronics) as well as buying basic household goods in bulk to reduce cost in a country that has had depressed wages for twenty years. Because of the lower overhead, warehouse stores can be a much cheaper way to buy things than ordering online from Amazon and still offer some of the seasonal and local customizations that Department stores once did.
Re:Costco says wut? (Score:4, Informative)
Don't forget that Costco at least also pays a living wage, with the lowest paid workers making about $35K/year plus medical, dental, and vision benefits, and a 401k match.
Costco is definitely not the cheapest game in town for much of what they sell, but like you say, you CAN get in and out of there FAST with a month's worth of supplies, and not have to make 10 stops across town to get it all. That kind of convenience is worth quite a bit.
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Costco pays a living wage, but they also employ 90% of the unskilled people who are worth that kind of money in the area. There aren't enough workers who are that good for other stores to do the same. Sam's Club/Walmart's strategy is to employ lower-level workers, pay a little less (although still better than Target) and have better procedures in place to deal with lower level workers and more turnover.
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People are going to Costco in droves for the same reason they're staying away from Sears: it's the service. The world is chock-full of stories of people who brought stuff back to Costco which failed well out of warranty and they replaced it anyway. It's also chock-full of stuff which people bought from Costco and it didn't fail, because they tend to actually do some research and then stock only things which don't suck. They haven't fallen into the trap of the average retailer who feels they have to stock ev
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On the weekends, Costco usually has 10 lanes of cash registers with 10 people in line each, with baskets loaded to the top, followed by long long lines to pass by receipt checkers to exit the building...The downfall of "retail" isn't all about Amazon.com and online clicks, it also includes the rise of these warehouse stores that sell superior quality produce and products (except for their accidentally unauthorized jewelry and slightly obsolete electronics) as well as buying basic household goods in bulk to reduce cost in a country that has had depressed wages for twenty years. Because of the lower overhead, warehouse stores can be a much cheaper way to buy things than ordering online from Amazon and still offer some of the seasonal and local customizations that Department stores once did.
The problem with Costco is that they actively provide an inferior shopping experience-
Aisles are not labeled and products move around frequently
Aisles are logjammed at my location. First it was just on weekends, now it is basically any time.
Lines are very long as you mentioned
If you find a commodity product you really like, Costco may stop carrying it at any time (They have infuriated me with their yogurt brand/ swapouts)
You can't park your cart next to the bathrooms unless you are already checked out
From the Summary (Score:4, Insightful)
>>... unemployment is historically low...
Total bollocks. It's only listed that way because the feds lie about how they count unemployment.
If you include the total, real world number of those who have been out of work for longer than a year, forced to work part time, and those on public assistance, the number is in the double digits.
Re:From the Summary (Score:5, Informative)
I'd like to know where you get 'double digits' from. BLS tracks a much broader measure of unemployment, U6, in addition to the headline figure. That measure is: "Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of all civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers". The most recent figure for that is 7.9%. Much higher than the most frequently reported measure, but not 'doubld digits'.
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https://www.thebalance.com/wha... [thebalance.com]
Near as makes no difference to 10%
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https://www.thebalance.com/wha... [thebalance.com]
Near as makes no difference to 10%
I read the entire article. Why did you cherry-pick the January 2017 U6 number of 9.4% and round up to 10% to justify your "double digits" claim? The October value for U6 is 7.9%. As the article states:
In October 2017, the real unemployment rate (U-6) was 7.9 percent
The entire point of the article is that regardless of the unemployment statistic you use, unemployment is down in apples to apples comparisons across the board. I don't understand what point you're trying to make other than that the fed does not use the U6 number to report unemployment. And if that's your
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There is also the issue of underemployment. In the UK the numbers are low because a million people are on "zero hour" contracts. Basically you have no guarantee of getting any work, you might get zero hours one week and 40 hours the next. Companies don't even have to make people redundant any more, they just stop giving them hours.
Not all jobs are equal. Shitty jobs can be as bad as being unemployed.
Convert to residential (Score:2)
Tear down the zombie strip malls and rezone the properties for apartments/condos.
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I don't know if it's a thing in your area, but around here a significant percentage of newer apartment buildings (condo or otherwise) have the first floor hosting retail units.
Totally destroying retail presence means more sprawl with more people needing cars more frequently.
Accelerated depreciation (Score:2)
In 2004, Malcolm Gladwell accelerated depreciation [newyorker.com] as to why so many malls were built in the first place. I just now added this to the Wikipedia article.
Privacy issues with online shopping (Score:2)
I hope retail lasts a while. Not because I particularly like shopping in person, but because online shopping is creepy from a privacy perspective. You have to use electronic payment and tie purchases to your identity and address. Meaning that the profile that retailers, marketeers, governments, and health insurers have on you gets even bigger.
Even if you have nothing to hide, assuming price restrictions and community rating on health insurance are repealed, how long before health insurers start billing y
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Amazon.com?
Re:And what of the FOUR horseman? (Score:5, Informative)
Retail itself, traditional retail anyway, is one of its own four horsemen. It can't get out of its own way because the people who run it aren't capable of thinking in a way that will save them from what is happening.
I found something I needed and what seemed like the only reasonable way to get it was via Walmart's order-online-pick-up-in-store system. So I ordered and 5 days later I get an email saying it was ready to pick up. Slow, but not a deal breaker. The email directed me to 'follow the orange signs to the pick up area'.
So I drive to the store and see orange signs and follow them. I come to a parking lot where signs directed me to call a number and someone would be out. It turns out that that area was for online ordered groceries only, and the person on the phone had no idea where to pick up non-grocery items.
I decided a graphic in the email was a map to some location inside the store, so I park and go in and awesome there is an area with an orange sign, a few ragged chairs, and a kiosk. Something about scanning a QR code but the scanner didn't work, and instead I typed my order number into the kiosk. My name appeared in a queue on the screen and the screen assured me someone would be along.
After 5 minutes or so a typically disinterested retail employee came out with a single box that weight about 1 LB and asked me to sign.
Me: This can't be it, my order is probably in several boxes and weighs about 300 LB
Her: No
Me: Yes look at the confirmation on my phone
Her: I will go look in the back
15 minutes later she appears with a cart with several boxes. I glance through them, one is missing. She says she can call corporate Walmart tomorrow and see if they can find it but she is sure without a second pass through the back she didn't miss it. I realize she just wants me to leave so she can go on break, and I really need this stuff now, so I sign anyway.
On the way home while sitting at a stoplight I order the missing part using my Amazon app and someone drops it on my porch the next day.
I wrote all that to say that the level of thinking that designed the Walmart process cannot compete with Amazon. It can't, it has 0 chance. It might keep obliteration at bay for a few years, but it will lose eventually. The only way traditional retail could compete would be to hire all new people, burn down all their stores, and start over. It can't win on convenience, it can't win on speed, it can't win on experience. It is a monoculture of price reduction and now that an alternative has appeared that can beat it in that area, it can't change quickly enough to survive.
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Sounds like you're giving up after the first attempt.
I look at prices across the board and occasionally buy from Wally's World when there is a significant gain - especially when it is a heavy item with high shipping costs for home delivery. I go when I'm buying other specific things there, usually once a month, and picking up additional items takes all of 5 minutes.
You're correct on the quality of employee though. Keep things simple and don't ask for any changes. Open the order there and refuse and cance
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Sounds like you're giving up after the first attempt.
Can you really blame them when the experience was that much of a hassle compared to having it shipped directly to their home?
Re: And what of the FOUR horseman? (Score:5, Insightful)
Trying to serve the poorest people - who only shop at the places with the lowest prices - is part of the retail problem. If the store is focused on low prices, they can't afford to focus on anything else. This is how Wal Mart came to be reviled by anyone who can afford to not shop there.
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Sounds like you're giving up after the first attempt.
Aren't you making their point for them? Is there some sort of long term value to forcing retail experiences to have built in retry at the consumer level? It seems quite the opposite. Does it make a retailer more competitive if we don't have to have a second attempt when purchasing the stock?
Re:And what of the FOUR horseman? (Score:4, Interesting)
I come to a parking lot where signs directed me to call a number and someone would be out
My wife is obsessed with using this. I hate it. Half the time I call the number and it rings for ten minutes and nobody picks up. I end up walking over to the door (which is 100 yards from the parking space) and knocking on it to get some pimple-faced teenager's attention.
Re:And what of the FOUR horseman? (Score:5, Insightful)
It can't win on convenience, it can't win on speed, it can't win on experience. It is a monoculture of price reduction
It's been a monoculture of selling lower quality with worse service at a lower price than the competition for a long, long time. Sears drove away mom and pop stores several decades ago, K-mart essentially drove Sears out of business a few decades ago, Walmart drove K-Mart out a couple of decades ago. Now it's Walmart's turn.
There won't be an apocalypse, just another iteration of the same cycle.
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Or hot dogs... "They'd be so abundant, they'd become our currency! 20 hot dogs would equal roughly a nickel. Depending on the strength of the yen, I'm not quite sure, but...you know what, I'm getting ahead of myself. Let's just keep praying that we can clone one of these hot dogs."
Re: Boom times ahead (Score:2, Funny)
You didn't mention the estate tax repeal. Think of all the factories and jobs to be created when the new wave of Paris Hiltons arrive.
Re:Boom times ahead (Score:4, Insightful)
Sounds a lot like trickle-down theory. Did I just get transported back to the 1980s?
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Now, if this tax cut can take place, things will change. Those people already working those burger flipping and big box retailer jobs are going to see a dramatic rise in the help wanted ads for manufacturers that are adding 2nd and 3rd shifts due to the dramatically lower corporate income taxes that allow those companies to make money with factories inside the USA.
This is only true if tax rates are what is driving companies to move manufacturing overseas. I would be interested to see that demonstrated. I think that taxes are only part of it, while tariffs, cost of wages and environmental and labor laws make up another sizable part of the equation. Those are governed more by trade deals than tax policy. Even so, US taxes would have to be lower than those in Bangladesh (for example) to have an impact. And the difference would have to be greater than the difference
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Income taxes in any form are stealing
Just like downloading music is stealing, right?
Words have meaning. You're lying in precisely the same way the RIAA/MPAA does to try to support their campaign of bankrupting grandmothers. An income tax is an income tax. Stop playing word games to suggest that your desire to take less money from the wealthy and more money from the poor is somehow morally defensible.
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Passing the Fair Tax could do it in spades, the economy would sprout rocket engines under the Fair Tax as manufacturing would be done in an income--tax-free environment in the only developed country on the planet where that could be done. Foreign business people would injure themselves in the stampede to build factories here in the USA. We would probably actually experience a fairly severe labor shortage, which would spiral wages further. We could probably actually allow more immigrants because we could put them to work and the country would prosper.
This is a really amazing fantasy - sounds like the Fair Tax could cure cancer too, right? Here's my question: what evidence do you have that cutting taxes has ever had anything near that impact on any economy? During the 1950's, we had a top marginal tax rate of about 90%, and that's one of the most prosperous times in American history. We actually paid down the massive war debt thanks to those high tax rates, and also witnessed a widely distributed increase in wealth across our society.
On the flip side, th
Re:Boom times ahead (Score:4, Insightful)
No, I kinda ignore it 'cuz there's still a whale of a lot of people that traipse in and out of any US car manufacturer's factory in spite of the fact that they are some of the most automated factories in the country. So, it seems that they still need people for SOMETHING, implying that there's lotsa stuff that can't be automated. Yet. Sure, robots will do more and more, but I'm waiting for someone to show me one that can walk thru the factory, hear the bearings going bad in a 50 hp motor on a press about 25 feet up in the air, go get a lift and a spare motor, get up there and change it out, remove the old motor back to the shop and rebuild it with new bearings and maybe brushes, and put it back in stock as a spare for the next time. Find me a robot that can do that. There aren't any. There aren't going to be any truck driver robots that can jump out and change a flat on the inside dual, either, for a long time. People will always be necessary up until its so automated that we can all use personal slaves who are robots, and never again have to do a damned thing that we don't want to do. It may never be seen by anyone alive today, 'cuz that's still a lot of tech to be invented.
Re: Boom times ahead (Score:5, Insightful)
A guy who served under Reagan and Bush I is a "leftist shill"?
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Not for the working class though. That would be corminizzem!
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Wait... You want to use tax policy to discourage capital investment and reduce mobility of investment to its best use?
Wait, you think that's what the finance industry does? Maybe it did at one time. But HFT doesn't give a fuck about any of that.
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So why has this suddenly become a problem?
Too Big To Fail. Sears is large enough to where if it goes under, it takes thousands and thousands of jobs with it, and impacts everyone in the country and lots of other people besides. Sears closing will literally cause a noticeable increase in crime, since we have no meaningful safety net in America.