Bitcoin Prices Surge 26% in November, Pass $8000 (bloomberg.com) 221
Bitcoin's value has increased more than 26% in less than three weeks, writes Bloomberg. An anonymous reader quotes their report:
Bitcoin topped $8,000 for the first time, as investors set aside technology concerns that had derailed its advance earlier this month. Bitcoin rose 4.8 percent to $8,071.05 as of 7:17 a.m. Sydney time on Monday. It's now up more than 700 percent this year after shrugging off a tumble of as much as 29 percent earlier this month. It's been a tumultuous year for the largest cryptocurrency, with three separate slumps of more than 25 percent in value all giving way to subsequent rallies.
This makes no sense (Score:5, Insightful)
Some years ago I was saying how bitcoin's value increase is not something sustainable, apart from having many of the characteristics of a pyramid scheme, it is also a transaction system that by design supports very few transactions per second (and that at considerable cost in energy and bandwidth), so does not have as much real world potential as you'd think. But after it broke $1000 and kept going I ceased commenting on the bitcoin price, it defies my logic, it boggles my mind, so I'll just wait to see how it goes without trying to comprehend.
Re:This makes no sense (Score:5, Insightful)
“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” -- JM Keynes
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Longer than doesn't mean forever. So you're redundant. And so was your comment.
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It's the poor people who need BTC to pay ransoms or unlock their Macs that I feel sorry for. What was a $250 ransom a few weeks ago is over $1500 now, and climbing. Do the criminals adjust their demands daily to account for the exchange rate?
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Re:This makes no sense (Score:4, Insightful)
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Name something, anything, that doesn't have "some of the characteristics" of a pyramid scheme.
Re: This makes no sense (Score:2)
I will give you an easy one. Corn. Now explain.
Re:This makes no sense (Score:4, Insightful)
I said and keep saying the same thing about Trump. The explanation is the same: people are, by and large, really really dumb.
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I looked at bitcoin at $35 and though, "nah, bubble" so didn't buy.
By that reckoning you're a financial genius and I'm the idiot, so you should feel quietly and righteously smug. :)
buy now or regret it later (Score:2, Insightful)
Stop lying to yourself and take 1 hour to read the white paper. Then you will know why you should start buying. Its time to take money away from banks and governments.
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"Take money away from banks and goverments?"
Sounds like you don't understand money or bitcoin. The governments and banks create money, people converting their money to bitcoin doesn't take it away money from governments and banks. They still control the world financial systems, which none of the players in bitcoin have any control over.
Re:buy now or regret it later (Score:5, Insightful)
Stop lying to yourself and take 1 hour to read the white paper. Then you will know why you should start buying. Its time to take money away from banks and governments.
Even if I completely buy into that line of thinking it in no way justifies the current price of bitcoin. The current market for bitcoin used as a currency just isn't big enough for that sort of valuation. And the current spike only makes things worse: given the volatility its value as a currency decreases due to the uncertainty in exchange. The fact that its a fundamentally deflationary currency just exacerbates the problem. Why buy anything with bitcoins? If you just hold on to them they'll be worth twice as much next month, and a thousand times as much next year ... which just leads to a deflationary spiral where their only value is not as a currency but as a speculative investment.
When bitcoins value is based on their actual utility (and actual usage) as a currency or means of exchange I might be interested: there is some good technology and ideas there. But that is not at all what the current valuations are based on -- they are based on bitcoin as a speculative investment vehicle and are spiralling out of all relation to any actual value.
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Even if I completely buy into that line of thinking it in no way justifies the current price of bitcoin
So, what's a reasonable price of bitcoin ? And if you apply the same reasoning, what would be a reasonable price for a kilogram of gold ?
Re: buy now or regret it later (Score:2)
Gold has the historic characteristic of being usable as collateral in a loan. This is why many people actually convert their countryâ(TM)s currency into physical gold. That sector of the market has volume and liquidity. Not to mention the overall market cap is like comparing a peanut to a watermelon.
Bitcoin isnâ(TM)t there yet. And due to the way it works, I donâ(TM)t think it is even possible.
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Your comment doesn't actually answer either of my two questions.
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You do understand bitcoin is worthless without fiat currencies, right? BC is not somehow detached and or independent from the global currency systems, that's one of the biggest myths about it circulated by people who don't really understand how BC derives its value. The market value of BC is measured in terms of fiat currencies, which by its
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The value of Bitcoin rests upon the functionality of the global market and currency systems.
Basically everything we have rests upon the functionality of everything else, bitcoin is not an exception. If all the major currencies crashed, you're not going to buy a loaf of bread from the supermarket with a gold coin either, because the supermarket won't have bread.
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Well, we could certainly eliminate that problem simply by going back to the gold standard
I think it's a bad idea to go the gold standard, but a good idea to own some gold. Same with bitcoin.
Pop! (Score:2)
eat your words (Score:2)
Re: eat your words (Score:2)
Inherent cost has never meant inherent value. This is a fundamental. Just because it cost you $10 to get a gallon of milk doesnâ(TM)t guarantee you can sell it for $10. Arguing against that is like arguing that the gravitational phenomenon doesnâ(TM)t exist.
Not pricey enough yet (Score:2)
The real power of Bitcoin (Score:2)
For some people, Bitcoin is a safety net [cointelegraph.com] against unstable governments.
In the USA, the government is not even in control of its own currency. [businessinsider.com]
Re:Queue the bitter "Bitcoin is a bubble/scam" pos (Score:5, Funny)
Tulip bulbs are where the money will be at over the next 12 months.
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I bet you wouldn't have typed this if you bought in cheap at $6000 :-)
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That's what they told me about stock prices in 2000 and housing prices in 2006/2007, too.
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Bitcoin is not stocks or houses.
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You're right. Stocks and houses actually represent something of value.
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You're right. Stocks and houses actually represent something of value.
Like stocks in Enron, or houses in Pripyat...
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No, 1 bitcoin does not represent $8,000. $8,000 is the market price of a bitcoin
If someone offered you a bitcoin for $4000 would you buy it ?
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Bitcoin has plenty of intrinsic value.
Re: Queue the bitter "Bitcoin is a bubble/scam" po (Score:5, Insightful)
Bitcoin has ZERO essential value. You can't eat bitcoin. You can't use bitcoin to make a vaccine. You can't even wipe your ass with bitcoin.
Meanwhile, the global economy could collapse, and I've got enough shiny rocks that would get me laid all I want by various women until I die, because mating rituals for humans haven't changed all that much in millennia. Rocks off the ground have more intrinsic value than Bitcoin.
You have rocks that get you laid? (Score:3, Funny)
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Good luck robbing me - you're picking the absolute wrong felon to fuck with on that front.
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There you go. [filmibeat.com]
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My criminal record is actually known on this site, so you can just LOL right the fuck off back to your mommy's tit, child.
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My lasers beat your bullets, and are silent and essentially undodgable, because you don't see the light until the light itself hits you.
Please come try. Your eyeballs would be fried before you could ever get within range.
The ballad of internet tough guy (Score:2)
Re: Bitcoin Network (Score:2)
It is the Bitcoin Network that performs a useful function - enabling financial transactions person-to-person electronically. Since you need bitcoins (the data entries in the blockchain) to use the Network, demand for the first creates a value for the second.
It's hard to claim networks have no value. If you read Slashdot you are using and probably paying for one. We can argue all day long about the *specific* value of the Bitcoin Network. Market price is often wrong about that. But to say it has no valu
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Bitcoin has plenty of intrinsic value.
Bitcoin has intrinsic cost. That's not the same as value. All of Bitcoin's value is based on the belief that it has value. Of course, that's mostly true of all currencies -- including so-called precious metals. But it's truly "pure" in the case of Bitcoin.
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Both stocks and houses have intrinsic value
Tell that to people in the 1988 condo crash, or the upcoming housing crash here in Canada. That $1.5m house in the burbs that's a hot ticket item right now is only going to be worth $250k in a couple of years at best guess. Especially since they're talking about multiple interest rate jumps. To explain just how *bad* of a crash they're talking? At 0.25% 10% of mortgages could be under water. At 0.5% it's around 25%. If the prime goes up by 1.5% in the next year(a very strong possibility), you could see
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Re: Queue the bitter "Bitcoin is a bubble/scam" po (Score:5, Interesting)
In the 1980 coal crash in Alberta, entire communities were wiped-out. The houses, townhouses and so on lost 99% of their value in the span of months. Places that were selling for $60k in 1980($175k today), couldn't be sold for $10 on the market. They were worthless, this happens a lot more then you'd think too. You can see it with the steel crash in the US, or in Hamilton, Ontario. In Alberta's case, the provincial government had to step in and assume liabilities, re-assess entire areas and assume the debt for failed towns.
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Yes, there are places where there has been that sort of crash, where houses went to nothing. Mostly, those were shit places where people were putting all their eggs in one basket...and if one company or one industry collapsed it took everything else with it because there was nothing else there. There's always big risks in moving into areas like that. It's a very localized and extremely volatile bubble. If you look someplace more reasonable like Detroit, yeah things went to shit there, but there's thousands
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> Bitcoin has nothing about it making it inherently valuable and relatively stable like a home in most areas.
The Bitcon *Network* has value because it performs a useful function for some people (electronic financial transactions). "Bitcoins" are merely data entries in the blockchain database of transactions. But since the only way to use the network is by having some bitcoins, demand to use the network creates a value for the coins.
Think of "1 bitcoin" as 1/16.5 millionths share of the usefulness of th
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Houses might lose 50-60% of their value.
Or 100% or 10% or they might gain 20%...
Bitcoin might lose 99%.
Or 100% or 10% or it might gain 20%...
There's the difference.
No there isn't.
Re: Queue the bitter "Bitcoin is a bubble/scam" p (Score:2)
Considering most people need mortgages to buy houses, they are a leveraged "investment" and you can therefore lose more cash than you put in. Bitcoin normally you can lose at most 100%.
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Bitcoin and stocks are high risk. Houses are not.
Baring special circumstances (like a cornerstone factory being closed in a small town) a housing bubble would reduce the value to 25-75% of the current evaluation.
Housing might also continue to increase at 3-10% a year.
For both (individual) stocks and bitcoin the whole value might disappear, so the downside is much larger. But the upside is also much larger.
Depending on the stock (and risk) you might see 100%, 1000% or more return on investment. Same with bit
Re: Queue the bitter "Bitcoin is a bubble/scam" p (Score:2)
Considering most people use mortgages to buy houses, they are a leveraged "investment" and you can therefore lose more cash than you put in. Bitcoin normally you can lose at most 100%.
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That $1.5m house in the burbs that's a hot ticket item right now is only going to be worth $250k in a couple of years at best guess.
Right. So your wisdom is based purely on you guessing wildly? You'll excuse me if I don't base my investment strategy on such flimsy logic.
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Right. So your wisdom is based purely on you guessing wildly? You'll excuse me if I don't base my investment strategy on such flimsy logic.
My "guess" is based on previous housing bubbles and their massive sharp corrections that happen, along with what the market is doing and what those learned economists think. The condo bubble, especially the Toronto condo bubble saw 80% of their value disappear. The 2008 crash in the US? Depends on where you were, but there were instances of negative devaluation of the property over 120%. Take your pick, but the larger the bubble the bigger the correction. The housing bubble in Canada is massive. The
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The condo bubble, especially the Toronto condo bubble saw 80% of their value disappear.
Ok sounds like a localised issue. I'm pretty sure apartments in Manhattan or London didn't suffer similar 'corrections'
The 2008 crash in the US? Depends on where you were,
Exactly. You can't just blanket 'real estate' as one thing. A shitbox subprime purchase in the rust belt is not equivalent in any way to buying house in say Palo Alto.
Economics is just supply and demand. In a lot of places, the demand is real, the supply is finite. Not all high priced things are bubbles.
Take your pick, but the larger the bubble the bigger the correction.
But how do you tell if a high priced thing is a bubble, or actually sustained by real d
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Ok sounds like a localised issue. I'm pretty sure apartments in Manhattan or London didn't suffer similar 'corrections'
Yeah they actually did. 70% for Manhattan and 60% for London.
xactly. You can't just blanket 'real estate' as one thing. A shitbox subprime purchase in the rust belt is not equivalent in any way to buying house in say Palo Alto.
Economics is just supply and demand. In a lot of places, the demand is real, the supply is finite. Not all high priced things are bubbles.
"Rustbelt" is now apparently florida which has yet to recover, including large parts of texas, az, and so on.
But how do you tell if a high priced thing is a bubble, or actually sustained by real demand? If you had've said ten years ago that the most popular mobile phones would cost $1000USD you'd be laughed out of the room. Yet here we are. Are iPhones a bubble?
When the number of vacancies in those houses sit empty. In otherwords these are houses, condos, and so on bought on the idea of real estate valuation nothing else. Let's compare a consumable vs building, makes perfect sense! Vancouver for instance the number is estimated to be around 30% empty property with no income, and simply being tu
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Yeah they actually did. 70% for Manhattan and 60% for London.
Ok now you're making stuff up. At no point did the average real estate market drop by 60 or 70% in London or Manhattan.
"Rustbelt" is now apparently florida which has yet to recover, including large parts of texas, az, and so on.
*Some* parts, generally the parts that don't have work to support the market. This is not some random thing, there are actually reasons why it happens which are predictable.
Meanwhile every major city is experiencing record growth.
When the number of vacancies in those houses sit empty.
Right but you need to dig deeper before making any conclusions. We have empty properties here to for a couple of reasons. One is foreigners who treat it as a lan
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Ok now you're making stuff up. At no point did the average real estate market drop by 60 or 70% in London or Manhattan.
I didn't say average real estate market. I said condo market. The rest of your post is you going around in circles trying to justify your view that things have changed(when they haven't), rather then realizing that you're on the edge of a crash. The money that's coming to fund all of this is mainly coming from EFT's, which are mainly levered against other currencies in order to "pay the cost" of those building. AKA someone borrowed to build, hoping to sell and make the money back. I'll point out that w
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You'll also likely be the person moaning that they lost everything in a years time.
File-> Save.
See you next year...
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Yeah, to work out what size mortgage I can afford I'd assume an interest rate around 6% - even though the mortgage I just cleared was being charged at 0.75%.
The extra cash? Just save it.
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I lol every single time someone uses the phrase 'intrinsic value'. It's a fantasy. Nothing is valuable except in its use.
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Beanie babies. Happy now? Yes, there were actually quite a few people who lost a ton of money on those.
There's plenty more whre that came from, but the reason everyone always mentions tulips is because, of all the many many bubbles that have happened in history, tulips is perhaps the most outrageous example so far. As a bubble, it's probably just as stupid as beanie babies, but a lot more people lost a lot more money (relative for the time) on tulips. And those of us who feel BTC is a bubble choose the tuli
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What are you going to do with BTC if the whole thing crashes down and you don't get out?
What are you going to do with a bar of gold if the whole thing crashes down ?
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So Tulips and Beanie Babies. I didn't even know what hey were and had to look them up. If that is you basis for financial advice I'd find another hobby.
No, as I said there are plenty of examples. You set the goalposts, I kicked the field goal just to humor you, now you want to move them. I'm not interested in playing that game.
But no-one ever won the game by not playing.
WOPR would disagree with you.
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No, as I said there are plenty of examples.
There's plenty of examples of things that are in no way related to Cryptocurrency. BTC has nothing in common with Tulips or Beanie Babies other than being popular. If that's the only qualification to be a bubble, then so is electricity, automobiles and the Internet...
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I don't have financial advice for you. Instead, I advise that you shove a rusty spike up your nose.
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What's interesting about the bubble crowd is that the only example of human history they have to cling on is some obscure reference from 1637. In the following 380 years they can't come up with anything else...
Say, you must be Albanian!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albanian_Civil_War
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What's interesting about the bitcoin crowd is that they rely so heavily on ignorance and lies. Tulipmania is not obscure to anyone with even a passing familiarity with economics. It is the first well-known speculative bubble in a market. My other comment in this thread -- posted almost four hours before yours -- listed two prominent examples of bubbles from 10 and 20 years ago. Is it going to be bitcoin this decade?
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What's interesting about the bitcoin crowd is that they rely so heavily on ignorance and lies.
Which ones are those? Maybe you could elaborate? Because you know when you say "the bitcoin crowd" it's like saying "all black people", or "all women"...
If you want to discuss details let's discuss. If you just want to walk around in circles shouting catchphrases at anything that moves I'll leave you to it.
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..... from those that think they missed out.
Well there are also the thank you's to buyers from those of us selling at $8,000. We'll talk again at $2,000. ;-)
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..... from those that think they missed out.
Well there are also the thank you's to buyers from those of us selling at $8,000. We'll talk again at $2,000. ;-)
Or $20k. That's the funny thing about the future, no amount smugness will make you any better at predicting it.
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..... from those that think they missed out.
Well there are also the thank you's to buyers from those of us selling at $8,000. We'll talk again at $2,000. ;-)
Or $20k. That's the funny thing about the future, no amount smugness will make you any better at predicting it.
Because its only smugness that would make one suspicious of a fast exponential spike in price from $300 to $8,000. Its not like bitcoin didn't have one of those in 2014 where it spiked to $1,000 and then crashed to $250 and sat there for years.
Will it go to $20K, quite possibly yes. Will it go there without a substantial drop between now and then, not likely.
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Because its only smugness that would make one suspicious of a fast exponential spike in price from $300 to $8,000.
Nothing wrong with being suspicious. I was suspicious of Apple's growth from near bankruptcy to world's most wealthiest company in less than 10 years. But here we are.
The steel, rail, and electric companies all saw similar growth rates during their infancy. Disruptive technology is disruptive.
Its not like bitcoin didn't have one of those in 2014 where it spiked to $1,000 and then crashed to $250 and sat there for years.
As has gold, real estate, shares etc. If you stopped investing in shares after the GFC you'd look pretty foolish now.
Will it go to $20K, quite possibly yes. Will it go there without a substantial drop between now and then, not likely.
I agree, but if your investment strategy is long term, short term dips are meaningless. .
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The steel, rail, and electric companies all saw similar growth rates during their infancy.
In the infancy of those industries there were many failures and many investors wiped out.
Disruptive technology is disruptive.
Bitcoin is not the disruptive technology. Blockchain is the disruptive technology and bitcoin is merely one user of the blockchain. Its also a quite flawed user. Its design relies on a large diverse group of miners for security but what we have is a small group of miners consolidated into pools that make 51% attacks feasible. In 2014 a mining pool reached 50%. Mining is also geographically centralized in China, about 70
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The blockchain will be part of our future but bitcoin could easily be displaced by another digital coin.
Not so easy. The problems you've indicated with mining would be even worse for a new coin with a smaller user base/network.
Bitcoin fees and transaction verification time make it ill suited for small and quick purchases.
That's not a bitcoin specific issue. That's a general problem with distributed global blockchain technology. Implementing a trustless network is always going to be less efficient.
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Bitcoin's current spike in price is largely due to wall street speculation.
Or popularity. Remember the only thing that counts is supply and demand. Supply is finite, demand is increasing, so there is a tipping point where prices take off which is now. So ask yourself, has demand peaked? It will peak eventually but until we reach man-on-street level of investing there's still lots of room to move.
The other question is supply. BTC might be replaced but that won't happen overnight. Being first mover they have the benefits of incumbency, and if you follow the crypto tech you'll get a
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Bitcoin's current spike in price is largely due to wall street speculation.
Or popularity. Remember the only thing that counts is supply and demand. Supply is finite, demand is increasing, so there is a tipping point where prices take off which is now.
The popularity is primarily one of speculation, trading, not consumer use.
BTC might be replaced but that won't happen overnight. Being first mover they have the benefits of incumbency, and if you follow the crypto tech you'll get a better idea of how the competition is faring.
Its not quite that simple. First mover is only an advantage if there is some sort of switching cost. Since consumer use involves holding little bitcoin, and any held bitcoins can be easily traded for other coins, there is little to no switching cost.
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Sounds like you made a little too much money with this. Don't let it get to your head good sir.
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If it actually did have some value then we'd be measuring the value of the US dollar in terms of Bitcoin.
That is exactly what we are doing.
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Not around here, they're not! I'm Canadian and around here we value commodities in maple syrup dollars.
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Gold, of course, is a real thing. It can be used in electronics and jewelry. It can't just be forked or replicated by someone who thinks they can make better gold that will be more interesting to gold speculators.
So you may have a point, but on the other hand, it's not at all like gold.
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Gold, of course, is a real thing. It can be used in electronics and jewelry.
BTC can be used to transfer money across borders without government interference. That is of great use to many people.
It can't just be forked or replicated by someone who thinks they can make better gold that will be more interesting to gold speculators.
So you've never heard of silver, or platinum, or pork belly futures? None of this is new...
So you may have a point, but on the other hand, it's not at all like gold.
It's exactly like gold, or tulips. It is an arbitrary thing that some people associate with value.
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By the way, you can transfer money across borders using any of the hundreds of competing cryptocurrencies. Many faster and at a lower cost to boot.
Speed and cost are not nearly as important as liquidity and security. There's a reason people pay a premium to transfer bitcoin.
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Should we outlaw cash too, because it MIGHT be used by criminals? Nah, let people keep their anonymity in a more and more connected and data-mined world.
This being said, Bitcoin is probably a bubble, but who knows?
Re: Bitcoin needs to be shut down (Score:2)
No, Bitcoin IS a bubble. There is no debate there. Things that surge in pricing well above historic norms and intrinsic value without explanation are considered a bubble.
The question is how big will it get and when will it pop. There are instances where a bubble deflates over time but that is extremely rare and needs a lot of market conditions/controls not present during the up tick.
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Encryption scams are bad, but easily defeated by good backup "hygiene."
Drug buys? Legalize it for consenting adults, treat abuse as a medical issue.
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Re:No it isnt, you have it the wrong way round (Score:4, Funny)
Renault currencies are going strong on the other hand...
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Brand recognition is everything in fiat money.
Why is the USD the world reserve currency? Stellar leadership?
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Brand recognition is everything in fiat money.
Why is the USD the world reserve currency? Stellar leadership?
Stable leadership and lack of alternatives. And both of those are about to change...
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Re: Set aside technology concerns? (Score:5, Interesting)
But it is a lot more than that. Same was true for the Roman and British empiresâ(TM) currencies. But both were unstable compared to The Dollar.
The US government doesnâ(TM)t overtly mess with the currency. For example, if they printed a ton of money, it would cause inflation and that would hurt China & India who hold a lot of our currency. Both would look at this as âoecheatingâ and stop accepting dollars, further tanking the value. For the US, it would bring back jobs and manufacturing. Looks like a win win. However, most of the dollars are held by US citizens. Thus the damage would be felt at home too. Domestic investment would dry up, which would mean foreign ownership would go up.
So the US govt doesnâ(TM)t play much games in the dollar manipulation. They have a lot of credibility in the world financial markets and have gained that through decades of discipline. Even during the WWs, both sides kept gold in the US!
Of course the US govt does some manipulation in terms of quantitative easing, interest rates, reserves, and printing. But itâ(TM)s relatively minor in comparison to other countries & currencies. The next closest contender is the Euro and it is far behind. The gold medal goes to first place, not the fastest.
The Roman Empireâ(TM)s currency was fairly close to the US dollar in terms of confidence. But that wasnâ(TM)t really due to their discipline. The currency was basically pegged to precious metals. However the downside was that almost no manipulation could be done that would have provided the empire with financial buffers.
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However, most of the dollars are held by US citizens
If you add up all the dollars held by US citizens, including their share of all the debts, you'd get a negative amount.
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No, were not ignorant, we're educated with historical fucking proof and experience.
Typical droll bullshit from a n00b 5+million UID spambot. Go back to sucking on your mother's titty, adults are speaking.
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Oh, yea, even the original Wolf of Wall Street said to avoid Bitcoin like the fucking plague. When a PROVEN AND ADMITTED CRIMINAL INVESTOR says to avoid BTC because it's a scam, smart people listen.
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Yeah! Dogecoin to the moon! Much value! Very future!