Tesla's Promised $35,000 Model 3 Is Still a Long Way Off (engadget.com) 276
When the Model 3 was first unveiled, it was pitched as an EV for the masses that would have a reasonable $35,000 price. Two years later and we still don't have a clear timeline as to when the $35,000 Model 3 will ship. In fact, Elon Musk last weekend unveiled the pricing and specs of a newer, more expensive Model 3 with AWD. It will cost $78,000. Engadget reports: CEO Elon Musk recently tweeted that the $35,000 Model 3 now won't ship until three to six months after Tesla achieves its 5,000 vehicle-per-week production goal. The reason for the new delay in the base model is simple: If the company was to ship it now, it would lose money on every vehicle and "die," as Musk put it. If Tesla had hit its initial forecasts and was producing 5,000 vehicles a week by January, the base, $35,000 Model 3 probably wouldn't have been delayed by so much. One potential problem for Tesla, as the WSJ points out, is that many of the 500,000 buyers who laid down a $1,000 deposit did so expecting to buy a $35,000 car, not a $49,000 one. When they get a letter saying the time has come to configure their EVs, quite a few might decide to back out, which could impact Tesla's already precarious cash flow situation.
Margin (Score:5, Insightful)
It's almost like you want to sell the higher margin ones first, in order to help pay for the amazing capital expenditure it takes to build a car assembly line.
Who is shocked by this? Nobody should be, as this is how it has always worked.
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Re:Margin (Score:5, Informative)
I'm waiting for a SR Model 3. And I don't find this timeline bad in the least. And if you ask over at any of the Tesla forums, you'll find the same thing. SR was never supposed to be an early option. The whole vehicle is behind schedule, so why shouldn't the SR pack be as well? Particularly given that it was - until recently - the battery line holding production back.
Regardless, Beau and I apparently have a very different definition of "long way off". For people who've been waiting for this vehicle, an accelerated schedule (yes, accelerated) of 3-6 months from hitting 5k is a breath of fresh air; I think most people were expecting it to be further in the future than that. Before this, it was looking like SR would come out somewhere in Q1; now it looks like mid Q3 to mid Q4, possibly late Q4. For reference, going from the leaks, Giga is over 5k packs per week and Fremont around 4,2k vehicles per week, with a downtime starting later this week to upgrade Fremont to 5-6k.
Of course, as always people who have no interest in a Model 3 will concern troll this. Spare us.
Re:Margin (Score:4, Interesting)
It's just frustrating. I don't want to go back to fossil, but I need more range. The Leaf 40 is a disaster, and who knows if the 60 will be any better. CPO prices on Teslas are silly here and the new no-refurb CPO is a joke.
And we are looking at late 2020, maybe 2021 to actually get an M3 of any kind. I'd get an LR if one was available.
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The infrastructure build needed to support EVs is expensive and takes time to build out. The boutique mall in my little rural village just sprouted a row of ten Tesla chargers, so it is coming.
Ultimately, it all comes down to batteries. Every advance in EV range is worth years of building more charging stations.
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The infrastructure build needed to support EVs is expensive and takes time to build out.
Oh look, that excuse again. In the mean time if you look to Europe where the EV market is quite big you'll see poor infrastructure that is massively underutilised as it is because *shock* one of the biggest selling points of EVs is that the infrastructure is in your garage.
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The mall in question is private but we get a lot of tourist traffic through here in season, so the chargers are probably to entice that traffic in to the coffee shops and art galleries. People come to this area for the art and the rock formations.
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Where do you live that it costs nothing to use those chargers?
Indeed, I see them in grocery store parking lots - no meter, just a plug.
Leaf isn't your only option (Score:5, Insightful)
It's just frustrating. I don't want to go back to fossil, but I need more range. The Leaf 40 is a disaster, and who knows if the 60 will be any better.
So buy a Chevy Bolt or a Volt. Both have much better range than the Leaf and are decent cars in their own right. The Leaf is a car that is useful for short commutes and that's it. If you need more then buy something else.
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It's just frustrating. I don't want to go back to fossil, but I need more range. The Leaf 40 is a disaster, and who knows if the 60 will be any better.
So buy a Chevy Bolt or a Volt. Both have much better range than the Leaf and are decent cars in their own right. The Leaf is a car that is useful for short commutes and that's it. If you need more then buy something else.
In Europe, the Opel Ampera [wikipedia.org] had a multi-year waiting list. GM just wasn't able to/didn't want to deliver the desired quantities. After GM sold Opel, it's uncertain if they'll ever deliver them.
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Neither are available here.
Renault Zoe (Score:2)
Neither are available here.
I have no idea where you are but I'll guess Europe. If so buy a Renault Zoe. Or a BMW i3 with a range extender [wikipedia.org].
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To repeat: this is being pushed further up the queue, not back, despite how Beau presented it in this Slashdot summary.
And tell me, where do you go to find the opinions of Tesla buyers?
Re:Margin (Score:4)
I have some great news AC, but you may want to be sitting down for it. Ready?
There exists a world outside of America!
I don't live in the US. What happens to your tax incentive has no bearing on me.
As for those who do: how does moving the expected SR delivery time foward hurt those waiting on the SR? You do realize that this timetable laid out by Musk means that the start delivering the SR with 1/2 to 1 1/2 quarters of full credit left, plus 2 quarters of half credits, plus to quarters of quarter-credits, don't you?
Unrealistic expections (Score:5, Informative)
that maybe so, that won't make the average punter who forked out the $1000 to support Tesla and reserve their $35k any happier that they are being given the arse end of the deal.
If anyone plunked down a deposit expecting to not have to wait a long time then they are idiots. 1) Tesla ALWAYS over promises delivery dates and routinely misses them. This is nothing new. 2) Tesla has ZERO experience with production at this volume. There is a learning curve. 3) If you buy the "cheap" model then you aren't their best customer and you should expect to go to the back of the line. Every business serves their best customers first. 4) A car received later is better than a car not received at all. 5) Tesla was up front that the pimped out models would be delivered first. Almost everyone has had to wait a little longer than hoped for.
Re: Unrealistic expections (Score:2)
Re: Unrealistic expections (Score:4, Informative)
Tesla has officially adopted the Kickstarter model of manufacturing.
But Tesla actually delivers eventually
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If you go back to the Tesla Model 3 reveal, the current setup not how it was sold.
I'm pretty sure it was along the lines of "Available from $35,000 - place your reservation today".
So the argument here is that those reservations were miss-sold, not that the business model is a surprise.
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The reservations told you exactly what you were getting for what price and with a timeline that showed SR not being made until LR was being made in volume. there is nobody with an order who didn't know A) that $35k is for the SR pack, and B) the LR pack was going into production first.
Re:he announced a price that would have made loss. (Score:4, Informative)
The schedule was front and centre. Production of LRs was to begin first and follow an S curve starting at in July, peaking in December. Anyone logged into their account could see their particular estimated window for the LR version, which for early US reservation holders was somewhere along this curve. They could also see that if they chose the SR pack, it wouldn't be available until after LR production had peaked, in Q1.
Literally nothing has changed except for how long the LR rampup took. Maybe a slight stretch between LR peak and SR delivery, depending on how you interpret the delivery windows, but nothing meaningful. Yet once or twice a month we're treated to concern trolling about it, from people who have no interest in the Model 3 themselves. Just like we've been enduring this relentless concern trolling about the rampup. But now that the rampup has nearly completed, I guess we have to switch the concern trolling to something else. Tell me, after the SR is delivered, what's going to be the next topic to incessantly concern troll? Air suspension? The tow hitch? The Model Y?
Re:he announced a price that would have made loss. (Score:4, Informative)
Hell, he is just maximizing subsidy value, get over it. He can't deliver car 200,000 until the beginning of Q3 2018, or a very large number of people would lose out on the tax credit. Tax credit is more valuable on the more expensive cars.
The Anti-Musk trolls / astroturfers are really getting old. Tesla might have issues, but they are very much out in the open. At least you get transparency...
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well right now it seems that they don't even have a schedule. as the schedule is actually dependent even on things like component and assembly costs coming down....
they do have a schedule to make more expensive models available though.
look, we all know that he announced it to please investors because he needs a profitable, yet affordable car to sell at high volume.
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Sucks if you pre-ordered though. Rather than doing pre-orders first, anyone willing to pay more gets theirs years earlier.
As someone in a RHD country I'll be the last to get one.
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Yeah, the timing on RHD sucks, I feel bad for you. Q3 next year, right? Bottom of the priority list :(
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Q3, if we are lucky, they start fulfilling the pre orders...
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Still,
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It's almost like you want to sell the higher margin ones first, in order to help pay for the amazing capital expenditure it takes to build a car assembly line.
Who is shocked by this? Nobody should be, as this is how it has always worked.
No it hasn't always worked like that. All other car manufacturers release budget models the same time as the higher end ones.
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It's almost like you want to sell the higher margin ones first, in order to help pay for the amazing capital expenditure it takes to build a car assembly line.
Who is shocked by this? Nobody should be, as this is how it has always worked.
Because most manufacturers cost the capital to make car before hand and amortise that over however many models they expect to sell.
Or they buy the factories using cash on hand, therefore do not have to do this.
Why didn't Telsa? Oh yeah, it's more important to be "edgy", "cool" and "disruptive" than to have a workable business plan.
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What you call a margin can also be called a bait and switch.
We're going to sell you this $35k car if you pre-order now, but when it comes time to actually buy the car, well. . . . . we don't have any of those available. But we DO have this nice $50k version if you're still interested. . . . .
The Federal Trade Commission tends to frown upon this little maneuver and if you promised / advertised a product at X price, then steer folks to a higher priced alternative, it's called false advertising.
It would surpr
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Re: Margin (Score:3)
And if your previous product lines are not sufficient volume because they were never intended to be, you go to capital markets and get the resources to expand, yes? Literally every business does this during growth phases.
And you pay back those commercial notes with what? Future profits generated through the expansion. Also known as product margin. And that is maximized how? Producing higher margin products.
You know, exactly what Tesla is doing. Please try to keep up.
Cost of capital (Score:3)
Which suggests that all those people who "only" buy the $35k model (expensive for a car, still!) are second-class customers whose business alone can't sustain the company, whether or not they are early adopters, first in the queue, etc. etc.
You fail Cost Accounting 101. Tesla invested a huge sum of money up front to build an assembly line. To recoup that cost you have to sell a lot of units. The fastest way to get out of the red is to sell the units with the highest margins first. If you don't get out of the red then the company experiences an opportunity cost having the money tied up in capital equipment that it could put to better use elsewhere.
You shouldn't be using CAR SALES to pay for the CAR ASSEMBLY LINE. That's what all those millions in investment were for.
You have no idea how manufacturing actually works do you? The ONLY thing that will pay for th
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Re: Short Sellers (Score:2)
I don't think the shorts have anything to worry about.
Don't tell us, tell them; they're the ones who're panicking.
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Re: Margin (Score:2)
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Most Profitable Orders First (Score:2)
Word is that Tesla will need another round of funding before they can fulfill all the existing Model 3 orders. It makes sense they'd try to avoid this by fulfilling the most profitable orders first. There are likely enough of those to 'put off' the $35k Model 3 for a while. Given they recently announced options for a more powerful Model 3, they're likely going to remain in 'premium' territory for a while. Soon they'll be making more Model 3s each month than Bolts are made each year, so it's not like competi
Tesla needs to hurry up (Score:4, Informative)
By the time Tesla manage to make a $35,000 Model 3, other manufacturers may well have beaten them to it.
Some are already close. The electric Hyundai IONIQ is less than $30,000 and if the range improves by 60 miles or so (50%) it will be competitive with the Model 3 - which doesn't seem like a huge leap.
And this is just one model. There is already the 180+ mile range Renault Zoe available in Europe, and the new LEAF has around 170 miles.
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The battery is a huge cost! Increasing the battery by 50% is certainly going to increase the price by more than $5k, more than $10k probably. But they don't actually need to increase it by 50%, they need to increase it by 80%. But oops, that's a lot of weight! Then you need a bigger motor, as the existing one is under-sized. You also may need to change other things with that huge a weight jump. You probably need to re-engineer the whole thing.
The whole point of the Model 3 is that it is good enough to repla
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Leaked Nissan price lists suggest that 25kWh is around â5k now.
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I'll let you in a little secret: cars are *recycled*. There's thousands of pounds of metal and materials in every vehicle - did you think that would just go into a landfill? Of course not.
Indeed. We have big fenced lots full of cars as far as the eye can see that you can go take parts off of if you need something to replace on a running one.
Re:Tesla needs to hurry up (Score:5, Informative)
Ioniq's EPA range is 124 miles. You're asking them to nearly double the Ioniq's range for pocket change.
Ioniq is also produced in very small volumes which Hyundai refuses to increase significantly - a good sign that the vehicle is a "compliance car".
Ioniq is also smaller, and much slower than Model 3.
Let's all say it together: stop confusing drivecycles. The Leaf's EPA range is 151 miles. The Zoe has no EPA rating, but given that it's WLTP range is only 5% more than the Leaf, expect around 159 miles. They're both slower vehicles (the Zoe *much* slower, even less HP than the Ioniq), but most importantly, they're both terrible at charging (the Ioniq is worse than the Model 3, but nothing compared to these two). Zoe only does "high power" AC charging, which is less common than DC charging, and only up to 43kW, vehicle-limited (Model 3 = up to 117kW from current superchargers, charger-limited - and a new gen of supercharger is coming out late this summer). Leaf is even worse: Nominally it can take up to 50kW, and in practice, at first, lower 40s. But the latest Leaf has been plagued with a problem called #RapidGate (google it). Basically, their lack of pack cooling finally caught up with them; you barely make it any distance on a trip before it throttles you back to half speed. And speaking of the lack of pack cooling, it means that Leafs suffer degradation faster than other EVs. And is it worth mentioning that the Zoe's interior quality is among the worst in modern EVs (arguably only beaten by the e-NV200) and has the least amount of cargo space?
There's a reason that half a million people flocked to the Model 3 and not the "competition", and yes, that's in quotes for a reason.
Re:Tesla needs to hurry up (Score:4, Insightful)
There's the powerful counterpoint of course that those vehicles actually exist, the $35k Tesla 3 does not in production quantities and is sliding further into the future with every announcement.
By the time I can walk into a Tesla dealer (especially in the UK as the RHD will be even further behind) and buy a standard Tesla 3, there will be probably another 2 major updates to that Ioniq. And maybe Ford etc will have their hands properly in play.
Might want to check those figures (Score:5, Insightful)
There's the powerful counterpoint of course that those vehicles actually exist, the $35k Tesla 3 does not in production quantities and is sliding further into the future with every announcement.
The Ioniq EV sold 6797 units last year globally. Tesla delivered more Model 3s than that last QUARTER and is accelerating production. In fact Tesla delivered more Model 3s [teslarati.com] than the Chevy Bolt and Nissan Lead COMBINED in Jan and Feb this year. Right now Tesla is delivering around 2800 [bloomberg.com] Model 3s per week.
By the time I can walk into a Tesla dealer (especially in the UK as the RHD will be even further behind) and buy a standard Tesla 3, there will be probably another 2 major updates to that Ioniq. And maybe Ford etc will have their hands properly in play.
That's a nice little fantasy story you are telling yourself. You do know Ford is literally stopping production of almost all non-truck vehicles right? And you think the Ioniq is going to magically be redesigned massively to compete on range with the Tesla?
Re: Tesla needs to hurry up (Score:2)
In any other discussion on slashdot, bringing up theoretical future products and vaporware as an argument against things actually being manufactured would be laughed off the site. But because Tesla, it's accepted.
Seriously, where are these Hyundai / Renault / Nissan / VW electrics that have the same range and performance as any Tesla? Only in people's imaginations. Meanwhile, I just saw a model 3 on the freeway in Cincinnati last week.
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"Fast" is a relative term.
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Some are already close. The electric Hyundai IONIQ is less than $30,000 and if the range improves by 60 miles or so
Ioniq's EPA range is 124 miles. You're asking them to nearly double
the Ioniq's range for pocket change.
Math?
Adding 60 to 124 is not "nearly doubling", it is an aprox. 50% increase. I'm not sure what common core math priciples you were applying here, but a 50% increase is about half of a 100% increase, which is the definition of "doubling" something.
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The Model 3 goes 310-335 miles on a single charge. Even the Consumer Reports article points out that they were able to go 350 miles with the aggressive regenerative breaking turned on, and 310 miles with the lower regenerative breaking setting.
In other words, to be comparative with the Model 3, the Ioniq would have to double their range (and then some) because the Model 3 has a far greater range.
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And speaking of the lack of pack cooling, it means that Leafs suffer degradation faster than other EVs.
That could be an understatement of the month [electrek.co]. Triple the speed of degradation or more is very worrisome.
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Ioniq is also produced in very small volumes which Hyundai refuses to increase significantly - a good sign that the vehicle is a "compliance car".
Or maybe the market just isn't there to justify a full-on, high-volume electric vehicle?
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The market disagrees. Otherwise Bolts would be pouring out the doors rather than half a million people waiting on the Model 3.
And the biggest reason people haven't been flocking to the Bolt is not its slower speed... not the fact that it can't be optioned to much higher range... not the fact that its options are poor in general by comparison... or that its standard features aren't as good... or that it looks kind of dorky... or has a plasticky econobox interior... or is a Chevy... or anything of that natur
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Tesla needs to hurry up
Aren't they backlogged as it is??
Re: Tesla needs to hurry up (Score:2)
Oh, they only have to increase the battery capacity by 50%? I don't know why that hasn't been done already! How hard can that be?
Are you serious with that?
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Tesla isn't afraid of the competition - it welcomes it. It has a corporate mission, unlike most manufacturers. Obviously it needs a sustainable cashflow strategy to effect its mission.
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And more will make reservations (Score:2)
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New car buyers don't buy a new car because the old one wears out. Cars are usually sold on the first time long before then. They buy a new car because they want a new car. If the car they want most is delayed, they may well wait — especially if it has no credible competitors, which is in fact the case.
Negative stories (Score:3)
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- Hyperbole
- Ad hominem attacks
I don't get it. You'd think the Slashdot community would be more forgiving to a man who is able to stick so closely to the geek mentality:
- Doesn't mind failing openly.
- Cares about and respects open source ideals.
- Is running three companies that are pushing the envelope (and yes, that means you invest a lot and don't always make deadlines).
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Yes. Tesla can't run a business. Which is why their stock is by and large held by major institutional investors, who are lately even upping their stakes.
Meanwhile, AC, your multi-billion dollar business is....?
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Yes. Tesla can't run a business. Which is why their stock is by and large held by major institutional investors, who are lately even upping their stakes.
It makes sense since they view it as a growth stock right now, but that doesn't mean they are bullish on it long term. If Tesla starts to stumble they'll bail in a heartbeat. If Tesla can control their costs while ramping up production they have a bright future, either as an independent company or merging with a larger company. The other big challenge to all EV's is developing a robust charging network that can quick charge with one standard charging methodology so any EV can use the station. I would bet ga
$35,000 Model 3 Is Still a Long Way Off (Score:5, Funny)
Alternative explanation: it's actually very small.
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Underrated post of the day :)
Space race: Mars or $35K car first? (Score:2)
Federal tax credit sunset (Score:2)
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People on the waiting list have been debating since day 1 how much of the US tax credit they'd get. Nobody is in for a "shock", they're following it in way more detail than you.
And the credit does not disappear at 200k. Rather, 200k (which Tesla looks to be trying to deliberately delay to Q3) starts a timer. The first two quarters (aka, Q3 and Q4) are full credit. Then Q1 and Q2 are a half credit, then Q3 and Q4 are a quarter credit. Then it disappears.
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People on the waiting list have been debating since day 1 how much of the US tax credit they'd get. Nobody is in for a "shock", they're following it in way more detail than you.
And the credit does not disappear at 200k. Rather, 200k (which Tesla looks to be trying to deliberately delay to Q3) starts a timer. The first two quarters (aka, Q3 and Q4) are full credit. Then Q1 and Q2 are a half credit, then Q3 and Q4 are a quarter credit. Then it disappears.
It will be interesting to see how they control production to maximize the time for getting credits. The good news is if they can ramp up production fast enough before and during the full credit phaseout there is no limit to how many buyers can get the credit. They could manufacturer a bunch of 3's and not deliver them until the threshold is exceeded to stretch he phaseout as long as possible and get as many buyers the maximum credit as tehy can. It will be interesting to see what happens to deposits and ord
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This is a fantasy and will never happen.
Why do you say that?
GM has no problem doing it with its Chevy Bolt.
Elon Musk is a religion.
The fact that he has a cult following is the reason he'll be successful. The Chevy Bolt is $30,000 after rebates, but a replacement battery which is only warrantied for 100,000 miles will cost $35,000.
This is the iPhone all over again. A Tesla model 3 is a lot sexier than a Chevy Bolt. And the Elon Musk cult really doesn't care how much it will cost to repair and maintain their model 3, even if they have to pay $35,000 multiple times.
Re: 35K Tesla (Score:2)
Quick Google shows the chevy bolt battery costs $15,700. Nice FUD you got there.
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Nobody replaces the batteries in these cars. A Prius battery is $7500 and by the time you need to replace the battery the car is already ready for a trade in.
Why do people still think hybrid and EV batteries need frequent replacement? This isn't the junk cellphone they bought that won't last a hour after 2 years of use. Prius are frequently used as taxis with 300,000 miles on them. Consumer reports tested a 2003 215,000 mile Prius and found the battery capacity barely diminished. Even if somehow the battery is dead, Toyota MSRP for a replacement battery is $3,600 but there's a $1,300 refund for the old battery so you're really only paying $2,300. That's not
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Elon Musk is a religion.
So he gets to be a dick to everyone and doesn't have to pay taxes?
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Every. Bloody. Time. Whenever a Tesla crashes anywhere in the world, it's front page news. I mean, how ridiculous can you get? And while it's not impossible, it appears quite doubtful that AP was on. The driver was driving in a 35mph zone, but their speed "was great enough to leave the roadway, hit a fence, keep going down an embankment and into a pond on the property" AP would have limited his max speed to 40mph. Everyone always blames AP first, and then never comes back and corrects the dozens upon do
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No, everytime it crashes WITH autopilot engaged it is front page news.
No, every time a Tesla crashes the article says "we don't know if autopilot was engaged" but it's still reported. Then we find out later whether it was or wasn't.
Re: No skid marks = death by autopilot (Score:2)
I am sure their are thousands of other tesla crashes that are never reported.
In this "anti-Tesla" media environment we're currently experiencing?! Do shut the fuck up.
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Mine too. Doesn't even need to be that intensive.
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"Gasoline price is US$5.8/US gal. right now" Maybe in California, in N. Texas, it's right around $2.80
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Wish I could get gas that cheap. Most gas stations right now seem to be selling for 225 ISK/l... aka $2,13/l... aka $8,05/gal.
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$5.80 A GALLON??!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
What socialist HELL HOLE do you live in?????
Just $5.80/gallon? Here [qz.com] in Norway [huffingtonpost.com] the gas price is closer to 8 USD pr. gallon (or rather, 16.65 NOK/l) [e24.no]
Here, 37% of new cars sold in March 2018 were electric vehicles [dagbladet.no]. In addition, about 27% were hybrids.
Re: "For the masses"? (Score:3)
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Heck, just point me to the Corolla that can out-accelerate a 3-series ;)
Re: "For the masses"? (Score:2)
Odd, I have a friend driving a Model 3 right now in California. How'd he get it if it won't be for sale until 2021?
Oh that's right, you are an idiot.
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$35k is double the price of a Corolla
Kind of states they are talking about the $35K Model 3, doesn't it? Or are you suggesting you can get the high-end model for just $35K?
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Hint: when someone ends a sentence with a question mark, that makes it a question, and you're supposed to respond with an answer.
Captcha: no captcha. I'm logged in because I'm not afraid to defend my views in public rather than posting AC.
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People in the market for a Tesla want an EV that they can use as an actual car (incl. trips without excessive wait times), and which isn't a hair shirt, but rather something that's actually fun to drive.
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. Actually, given the awful build quality, the serious QC and engineering issues, the high price,
Works for apple.
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Heh, sorry the debate tends to polarize so much. :) And yeah, a new order today with the long-range battery and AWD is a 6-9 month delay, which is too long for a lot of people.
Out of curiosity, have you ever driven a Tesla? Definitely do so if you have a chance. ;)