Saudi Arabia Invests $1 Billion In Potential Tesla Rival (cnn.com) 177
Saudi Arabia is investing more than $1 billion in Lucid Motors, an electric car startup that may give Tesla a run for their money. CNN reports: Lucid is planning a new high-performance electric car. It said the investment from Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund announced Monday will allow it to finish engineering on its first car, the Lucid Air, as well as build a factory in Casa Grande, Arizona, and begin to sell the car by 2020. Saudi Arabia is already a big investor in Tesla. Last month Tesla CEO Elon Musk disclosed that the Saudis had taken nearly a 5% stake in his electric car company.
Musk said that the Saudis had been urging him for almost two years to take Tesla private, offering to provide funds necessary to do so. (Musk announced the plan to go private in August but quickly dropped the idea.) Saudi Arabia is investing in electric vehicles to diversify away from its dependence on oil. Lucid's Chief Technology Officer, Peter Rawlinson, was formerly a vice president and chief vehicle engineer at Tesla. He helped design the Model S, the company's breakthrough car. He left Tesla in 2012, shortly after the Model S went into production.
Musk said that the Saudis had been urging him for almost two years to take Tesla private, offering to provide funds necessary to do so. (Musk announced the plan to go private in August but quickly dropped the idea.) Saudi Arabia is investing in electric vehicles to diversify away from its dependence on oil. Lucid's Chief Technology Officer, Peter Rawlinson, was formerly a vice president and chief vehicle engineer at Tesla. He helped design the Model S, the company's breakthrough car. He left Tesla in 2012, shortly after the Model S went into production.
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Re:Rei, come on in, you're needed! (Score:5, Interesting)
What's electric cars being the future has to do with TSLA's viability as a company? VAG, BMW, etc have literally tens of billions of money sitting waiting to convert their shit over if it becomes financially a good proposition to do it - they have tens of gigafactories - their ENTIRE EXPERTISE that has enabled them to remain viable car companies is based around production and logistics around it - the Tesla gigafactory seems puny in comparison and indeed it is, it's just called giga for marketing reasons - vag doesn't need to "market" it's factories, so they don't, but there's a reason why they're still alive and not bailed out for the tenth time.
The thing with Tesla is that.. they don't really have any special technology. They just sold it at a price that didn't make any fucking sense for them to be doing, since they were selling all production(supposedly) and still losing money(even after one time book shenigans). The reason Musk is under enermous pressure is that now is the time the company has to start making profit, not another 10 years into the future because electric cars are the future. Basically his promises that his supermodernhyper Gigafactory can churn out production cheaper than VAG etc's factories can need to be kept right now.
Lucid motors also however, a shit grade investment. Their car? a fucking 1000hp sedan. good luck selling that 20 000 - 130 000 units in a year. They're not sitting on any technology unique to them and they don't have decades of expertise in manufacturing.
So yeah, Saudis putting money into it - whatever. Call the market up when they have some special sauce to make 20 000 dollar cars people want to buy.
And of course teslas are nice cars, they cost an arm and a leg and still are sold for too cheap so they better well should be, but the technology really isn't all that special, whats special is putting them into a product and selling it at the price.
Why do american car companies insist on building stuff people can't afford anyways en masse? don't they realize that 80 000 dollar + cars are an extreme luxury, just because they live rich themselves? is it because they can't optimize their production for worth shit? because Musk sure as fuck sold the cheapo model of the 3 but can't deliver.
Re:Rei, come on in, you're needed! (Score:4, Interesting)
Nope.
Tesla are making about 30% on their cars: https://electrek.co/2018/07/16... [electrek.co]
That's a much higher margin than gasoline car makers are getting and shows that Tesla has a huge start on everybody, "special technology" or not.
Why do american car companies insist on building stuff people can't afford anyways en masse? don't they realize that 80 000 dollar + cars are an extreme luxury, just because they live rich themselves? is it because they can't optimize their production for worth shit?
They have years of back-orders right now, why would they sell for less?
(and they aren't even taking orders in all countries yet!)
because Musk sure as fuck sold the cheapo model of the 3 but can't deliver.
Targets are being met, production is on schedule.
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Tesla are making about 30% on their cars: https://electrek.co/2018/07/16.. [electrek.co]
Only if you don't count the Model 3. Tesla's own numbers [tesla.com] tells a different story:
Gross margin for total automotive decreased from 28% to 21% in the three months ended June 30, 2018 as compared to the three months ended June 30, 2017.
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look, do not link electrek on tesla stories.
They are most definitely NOT making 30% on their cars.
not on ANY of them. even they admitted the reason they weren't selling the cheapo 3 was that they would have taken a loss on every cheapo 3 they would have sold.
Tesla would be in a really, really, really different place if they could be making 30% on production that's 100% full. they aren't at that place and if they were they would be making weekly press statements about it.
Look, I wasn't even talking about the
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Re:Rei, come on in, you're needed! (Score:4, Insightful)
Mercedes has yet to run out of people who can afford $120,000-240,000 AMG models. The Model S is a mid-tier luxury car - plenty of volume there as luxury cars go. That's not really the point, is it?
Tesla's future is about the Model 3, not the high-end stuff. If they're making any kind of profit on them now, that's great long term, as their per-unit cost will fall over time. The question is whether they can make it through the next 6 months.
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Yeah, you're claiming that the Model 3 won't be popular, or can't be made for a profit at $35k. I think it will be as popular as a sedan ever is in America, for the next few years, just for the novelty. As for cost, various tear-downs have estimated the COGS below $35k. Whether they can make a profit after fixed costs is the real question. If you have a firm opinion, trade the stock.
Now, if we're looking out beyond 5 years, they need a pickup truck to be a successful American car company. I remain skept
Gross margins (Score:3)
Tesla are making about 30% on their cars
No they are not. You referenced a cost estimate of gross margin on their cars which is a bunch of educated guesses by outside cost accountants without access to actual cost data. These sorts of reports are useful but you should be careful reading too much into them. What is undeniably useful is the public financial statements each company has to put out which gives a good basis for comparison.
Gross margin for a company like Toyota (one of the more profitable big auto companies) hovers around 18-20% [ycharts.com] which
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they have tens of gigafactories
If you're talking about battery factories...no, they don't have them, at least not yet.
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A lot of investors still seem to think they can get in "early" and grab a slice of the patent pie with high end vehicles that will develop and prove the technology that will eventually end up in affordable cars.
Unfortunately for them Kia, Hyundai, Nissan/Renault and a bunch of Chinese manufacturers have already done that and are selling those affordable cars today. But I suppose this is pocket change for the Saudis so maybe they are willing to take a punt.
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VAG, BMW, etc have literally tens of billions of money sitting waiting to convert their shit over if it becomes financially a good proposition to do it - they have tens of gigafactories - their ENTIRE EXPERTISE that has enabled them to remain viable car companies is based around production and logistics around it
That all sounds good until you look at the actual attempts at doing so. Porsche has recently shown quite well how difficult it actually is to retool a production line to all electric. They're pushing shit uphill despite their expertise.
It's always easy to point to people with big factories and say "Look how awesome" But the reality is that the major car companies are putting quite the effort into electrical cars and have not all that much to show for it.
Execution (Score:3)
The thing with Tesla is that.. they don't really have any special technology.
Neither does Coca Cola - nothing special about carbonated sugar water - but that doesn't mean they cannot succeed. It's all about execution. And when it comes to electric vehicles to date Tesla has been out executing pretty much everyone. That's not to say they have any sort of insurmountable advantage - they don't. But the incumbent auto makers sleep on Tesla at their own peril. Tesla is vertically integrated, has a fantastically popular brand, products people are willing to wait literally years for,
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The thing with Tesla is that.. they don't really have any special technology.
Neither does Coca Cola - nothing special about carbonated sugar water - but that doesn't mean they cannot succeed. It's all about marketing.
Fixed it for you.
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Why do american car companies insist on building stuff people can't afford anyways en masse?
Because it's all financed, similar to the retailers that offer payment plans on high-end appliances to people who can't afford the basic models, though the car companies don't need high interest to cover defaults because they will be bailed out by the taxpayers
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The thing with Tesla is that.. they don't really have any special technology.
Except the most advanced electric motor in the business, sure. And the best battery packs, yeah, except for those two things. Oh, and the best motor controllers. So you know, except from the whole goddamned powertrain, nothing they have is special.
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They have the money. yes.
Do they have the will? Are they willing to make a no compromise electric that would definitely cannibalize their ICE sales in the short term? No.
They are threading the needle. Slowly gradually build their electric capacity and when the gross margin in EV becomes better than their gross margin in ICEV they will switch. That is their
Re: Rei, come on in, you're needed! (Score:1)
$80k+ cars sell fine in the US. Just ask Audi, BMW, Porsche, Mercedes. The only US brand that really plays there is Cadillac (sorry, Lincoln imagines itself being part of that club, but... we all have our delusions).
The US companies however are more than happy to sell you an $80k+ pickup truck or SUV (price a Ram 2500 Big Horn or Ford SuperDuty King Ranch...). And many americans seem to be more than happy with this arrangement..
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You say VAG, BMW etc have tens of gigafactories. They don't even have one. Are you referring instead to their automobile manufacturing plants?
The Tesla Gigafactory is a battery manufacturing facility in Nevada, it's separate from the Tesla Factory in California that builds the cars. VAG, BMW etc have yet to announce any battery factories and are still purchasing them from suppliers.
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They don't even have one.
Here's one [electrek.co].
Re: Rei, come on in, you're needed! (Score:2)
What's electric cars being the future has to do with TSLA's viability as a company?
Surely they have absolutely nothing to do with one another.
(Or they have everything to do with one another- especially considering Tesla's current market position relativel to any [viable] competition... and at the end of the day, you're just another dumb shill making demonstrably disingenuous points... albeit in a slightly more subtle and indirect fashion than the next dumb shill.)
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you know whats different between Apple and Tesla?
Apple makes cheapo products and sells them at premium price.
Tesla makes luxury products(production costswise) and sells them at upper premium price.
Again, I'm no saying that it's stupid to buy a tesla car. just that it would seem stupid, based on the numbers we have, to invest money into the company. These two are different things. If a company constantly sells out, but it's prices remain same, and they're not making steady cash(one time investments etc taken
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Tesla cars are very nice overall and finally overcoming some production issues but it's funny to make valid critical points about the car, the company or Musk and watch all the defenders leap out of the woodwork.
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It would be fair to say their
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You know they built an additional assembly line in the tent, right? The original one for Model 3 is still operating.
Were they overly ambitious with their level of automation? Sure. And that probably comes with the lack of experience as you suggest. However, it's not like they tore the whole thing out and started over like you also suggest.
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Re:Rei, come on in, you're needed! (Score:4, Insightful)
Actually, I wish Lucid well. They seem to know what they're doing and have a reasonable strategy. They're way behind the curve and have a lot of slog ahead of them, but I think they could become a legitimate minor player on the high end. And that's rather high praise from me compared to my take on many EV startups.
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I wish them success just so we can maybe have an end to the conspiracy theories about how big oil killed the electric car.
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It is the Stonecutters!
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I'm not him / her, but the answer I'd have is that it's growing the market for EVs by introducing possible competition.
Competition makes markets healthy, and improves / matures the offerings from each competitor.
Next question?
Re: Rei, come on in, you're needed! (Score:2)
Well done, REI. :D
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Re:Crowded Market? (Score:5, Interesting)
Isn't every car manufacturer, and every would be "entrepreneur" out there building their own electric car?
Yes. Jaguar [jaguar.com] and Mercedes [mercedes-benz.com] are both bringing out electric cars, for instance. The Jaguar I-PACE looks to be a better car than the equivalent Tesla.
Re:Crowded Market? (Score:4, Interesting)
They are all way too expensive. Anyone can build a really expensive EV, those aren't very interesting.
It's the affordable end of the market that is exciting. Kia and Hyundai both have really strong offerings (Niro and Kona) with 250-300 mile range and a lot of value for money. Nissan may have a decent Leaf out this year, Tesla may one day get to $35k but that's looking expensive for a very basic, stripped down car now...
Kona/Niro are both really impressive. Range, tech (including auto-steering), quality and performance are all there.
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...It's the affordable end of the market that is exciting.
Agree completely. I took a long drive in a Chevy Bolt earlier this summer, and fielded quite a few questions when I stopped at rest areas with fast chargers. There's a lot of curiosity about the technology out there--thanks, no doubt, to Musk and Tesla. Those manufacturers that are able to deliver a capable base model and charging solution that's accessible to the mass market will win this emerging market.
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Still a Korean car.
AKA your basic POS.
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The Jaguar I-PACE looks to be a better car than the equivalent Tesla.
Looks ugly as fuck! It might be a better car, I wouldn't know but can you imagine sitting in that thing thinking you're all smug with out realising what a massive twat you look?! Not that teslas are much different mind.
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Yeah but that's true of all Jaguars. It's impossible to drive one without looking like a smug git.
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The iPace gets good reviews and I'll have a look when the local dealer gets one, but it's a much smaller car than the X for just $10k less.
Personally I want to buy an new electric luxury SUV, I like how electrics drive and not going to gas stations is a bonus. iPace is interesting (although for most people an X would be more appealing), but the EV cars coming out from BMW, Mercedes, and Audi are compact SUVs that fall quite a bit short of the X.
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Announced, not shipping, not available in any way for any amount of money.
"looks to be better" is not actually better unless it exists. Let's see Jag, Audi, etc. actually start selling them. Right now they are vapor being pumped out to try to freeze the market.
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Announced, not shipping, not available in any way for any amount of money.
The I-PACE is available now. You can see pricing on the Jaguar USA [jaguarusa.com] and Jaguar UK [jaguarusa.com] sites, for example. You should book a test drive.
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Established players vs Start ups (Score:4, Interesting)
Unlike the early days of cars there are many established car companies in the game. It takes a lot of expertise and supply chain management to build a car. You need to know a lot about robots, labour, etc.
Ossified management has allowed startups to dominate when technology changes if the barrier is not too high. So all the newspapers ceded their classified adds to ebay et. al. Nokia to Apple. Big retailers to Amazon. TV networks to Netflix. None of those things should have happened, the established players should have dominated, but did not.
On the other hand, Webvan died for delivering groceries ordered on line, here in Oz they are delivered by the big supermarket chains, Coles and Woolworths. It was easier to add a web site to a supermarket than to add a supermarket to a web site.
I'd bet pennies to pounds that electric cars will be like supermarkets. The established players will dominate. It is an incremental improvement for them. And many are already there, e.g. the Leaf, Prius.
Telsa is toast.
OTOH self driving car AI is likely to come from someone other than the big car manufacturers. But they will buy it from the third party. Might be Google. If Apple try to build the cars rather than just the software, they will become irrelevant.
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That'll be happening across the board if they figure a critical mass has been reached. As is they're trying the boil the frog approach to do the same thing. (more and
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It was easier to add a web site to a supermarket than to add a supermarket to a web site.
Heh, I'm going to have to remember this turn of phrase...
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And yet several industry analysts are saying that Tesla doesn't have any credible competition until at least 2020 [marketwatch.com] and that Tesla's lead in EV technology may last far longer than anyone thought [cnbc.com] after an underwhelming product announcement from Audi.
Maybe making an EV that actually works is hard, and the big auto makers can't slap one together at the last minute?
I smell a rat (Score:2)
The overwhelmingly most important source of income of Saudi Arabia, by a ridiculously huge margin, is crude oil exports. And the overwhelming majority of crude oil is used for gasoline production.
Let us be realistic for a moment: oil production is the #1 strategic concern of Saudi Arabia, and electric cars are their anathema.
Re:I smell a rat (Score:5, Informative)
"oil production is the #1 strategic concern of Saudi Arabia, and electric cars are their anathema."
yes, oil currently is their no #1, but they are pouring money into renewables, they see the future better than Trump
https://www.bloomberg.com/news... [bloomberg.com]
Re:I smell a rat (Score:5, Insightful)
No, Saudi Arabia got a shock when oil dropped from $120 per barrel down to around $30 per barrel in 2014 as it plunged their economy into deficit. This gave them a massive wake up call and created a realisation that they can't depend on oil forever.
They were surprisingly smart, where most countries such as the UK and Russia have squandered their oil wealth with nothing to show for it, other countries like Norway set up a sovereign wealth fund to see them into the future. Saudi Arabia is taking this approach of forward thinking too, and planning for the future whilst it has oil wealth, rather than waiting until the oil wealth runs out then thinking "Right, now what?" when it's ultimately too late.
This decision to plan for the future has been cemented into reality in a number of very visible ways, from using it's massive investment fund to start focussing on future tech that will only grow in value going forward such as renewables and electric cars, by strengthening it's base economy through simple things such as liberalising it's approach to women. A key realisation was that the Saudi economy could literally double in size by allowing the half of it's population that are not currently allowed to work on equal terms to do so. It will be a long process as it requires changing attitudes when there are still very dangerous hard liners in the country but we've already seen some fairly big leaps towards it, such as allowing women to drive, and allowing women to make up over 30% of the ruling council, which interestingly is a better male-female ratio than most Western democracies. When only 50% of your working age population are allowed to work, enabling the other 50% to do so as a way to obtain a quick, easy, future proof, baseline economic boost is really a no brainer.
Furthermore, we've seen things such as purges of the corrupt elite to drive corruption out the economy, which can have severe consequences as we see in Russia - where Russia has masses of natural resource wealth, it gets filtered off into Swiss and Cayman bank accounts of only a handful of individuals to the detriment of the wider and long term health of the country. In fact, the only reason Russia with all it's potential isn't a wealthy modern economy across the vast majority of it's territory and has massive pockets of 3rd world levels of poverty is almost entirely because of corruption - even where economic mismanagement is a problem, such mismanagement usually occurs precisely to aid corruption.
So it's fairly clear that Saudi Arabia is one of a few countries that gets that oil isn't going to be around forever, and that is liberalising it's economy to cater to the realisation of that fact in many ways, from more forward thinking investments, to enfranchising women, to tackling corruption. It's likely Saudi Arabia will always be, or at least for the next few decades a fairly conservative country, but that doesn't appear to be a complete barrier now to modernising their nation as it has been for the last few decades, oil is no longer king, precisely because they saw how badly oil as a dependency can let them down in 2014.
Don't assume countries can't change and that because they were dependent on oil that they'll always be dependent on oil, Saudi Arabia is undergoing a very silent, but very rapid change to make sure that it's secure even if oil prices collapse. They've still got a lot of work to do, but the trajectory should be abundantly clear to anyone paying attention to the changes the country has undergone over the last few years.
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Saudi arabia and other Arabic countries are "changing" since decades.
Just look at in what companies they invest. In the 1970s "Mercedes Benz" was divided up into "Daimler Benz" and "Mercedes Benz" just so that one company owns the other one, but the stocks in that company had no votes on the other one. That was done because out of fear that specifically Saudi Arabia would by to much stock in German companies and would control them.
SA and the other Arabs own 'half the world' already, an no one pays attention
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by strengthening it's base economy through simple things such as liberalising it's approach to women. A key realisation was that the Saudi economy could literally double in size by allowing the half of it's population that are not currently allowed to work on equal terms to do so. {...} When only 50% of your working age population are allowed to work, enabling the other 50% to do so as a way to obtain a quick, easy, future proof, baseline economic boost is really a no brainer.
That's an interesting point of view. Doubling the workforce without doubling the jobs is a huge economic boost?
I'm not sure that, say, the 1970s in the US (when cultural change pushed women en masse into the workforce) really bear that out.
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Global productivity improved for sure, but because more people got into the labor market the salaries got cut in half. At the same time women don't have time to either do household tasks or to take care of children. So family sizes decrease.
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No, Saudi Arabia got a shock when oil dropped from $120 per barrel down to around $30 per barrel in 2014 as it plunged their economy into deficit.
No, Saudi Arabia didn't "get a shock". Saudi Arabia engineered the price drop so that the shale oil development would die.
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Actually, it didn't work out well for them because they are not very smart. But they would not be in this headline (and the Tesla ones) if they were.
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You provide a quick production boost, on paper, yes, but then you ruin your economics in the long run as you get close to negative birth rates. What it means is that what used to be not a part of the economy like child care, etc, becomes a business and then it starts showing up on GDP numbers as people get a salary.
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They desperately want to take ARAMCO public, then really diversify. But have to keep delaying it as they know their price would currently be laughed out of the room.
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Well, geography was not my primary interest at school, but I think Saudi Arabia gets a nice amount of sunshine. As the world divests from oil, they sure can divert the investments into solar energy.
I think oil products won't get away entirely. Plastics can still be the best things to use in sterile environments (operating rooms), or in aeronautical structures. But throwing plastic away into the ocean or even burning oil as fuel will be an increasingly stupid idea.
a bit too quick to declare it a rival. (Score:5, Insightful)
Emphasis mine
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Finishing engineering, building a factory, and bringing a car to market in only 2 years seems overly optimistic, as well. By then the Tesla Roadster 2020 will be out.
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other companies have already engineered their cars, built battery plants
A list of car companies with their battery plants would be nice [theverge.com] if you're making such claims.
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I was mostly wondering why it even bothered with the "To give Tesla a run for it's money" line. It's like someone just needed to have the article related to Tesla somehow.
I mean I guess they are the electric car only company, but still seems a bit silly to go ahead and say that.
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They do actually have a working prototype. MKBHD drove it: https://youtu.be/jbXEWi-OK4o [youtu.be]
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Glass roofs were tried in the 1950s. They require triple sized ACs, a deal breaker on an electric car.
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It's an option. Search a little and you'll find that heat is an issue. They had tinted glass in 1950 already.
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I do love T-tops...
Funding Secured! (Score:2)
so basically (Score:4, Funny)
This company has only slighty better chances at being Tesla's rival as I.
Man, I hate the news these days...
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Do you have a billion dollars of funding to start with?
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Assuming you are personally a billionaire willing to invest everything you own in electric cars, yes.
supercar, oh please... (Score:3)
we don't need another supercar, we need electric cars for normal people.
they should be cheap to produce right? we don't need sub 2 seconds acceleration, or +300km/h top speed.
just make it good enough to replace your regular current petrol car, i'm even willing to cut off some 100km of range, but;
- it needs to be afforable
- be practical (no silly sci-fi looking impractical car)
The Nissan Leaf or Hyundai Ioniq almost have me sold, i just need a bigger boot (ie a station wagon, thank you!).
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As Tesla is finally starting to realize, the hard part about building an electric car is not the electric part, but the car part.
Tesla has always realized this, which is why their first car was basically a repowered Lotus. And they've already become good at making cars, which is why there's thousands of dollars of profit in every Model 3.
When the existing car manufacturers determine it is finally economically viable to build electric cars, they will wash the startups (Tesla, Faraday Future, and others) away.
They are all making EVs, and all of the ones they have released so far are inferior to a Tesla, and none of them are profitable.
It's the car that matters, the method of propulsion is a distant second.
The method of propulsion informs the design of the entire vehicle. They go hand in hand.
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And they've already become good at making cars, which is why there's thousands of dollars of profit in every Model 3.
False. Tesla loses about $17,000 on every car they sell, overall. If you take gross profit and subtract SG&A (selling general & administrative - costs required to actually sell and deliver a vehicle) they lose about $4000 per car. That's not including R&D or even interest on the debt required to build those cars and facilities in the first place.
They are all making EVs, and all of the ones they have released so far are inferior to a Tesla, and none of them are profitable.
Inferior - in your opinion. And the fact EVs are not profitable (including Teslas - or are you now stating that Tesla is not profitable, even though
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False. Witness basically every EV on the market. They are designed remarkably similar to existing cars.
So are Teslas.
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Alternate possible future for Tesla and electric (Score:2)
These announcements about electric car investments mean that big players are scared that Tesla might succeed in shifting the market. The shareholders want a plan. For now, these announcements are probably mostly PR. But if Tesla can hang on a few years, then even if the company dies it might spring up an entire electric car industry simply by scaring other players into investing. So ultimately the human race wins even if Tesla Motors dies.
ALTERNATE FUTURE: Tesla becomes a company that sells solar panels
Price needs to reflect inconvienence (Score:2)
Or convenience? (Score:2)
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Oil barons, put tesla out (Score:1)
Signalling the end of petroleum (Score:2)
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Saudi Arabia has acknowledged for many decades oil wealth won't last forever. They've been pretty good at using a large chunk of oil money to buy assets in other countries. It let's them diversify, without modifying their country too much,
Essentially, they treat the entire nation's economy like you treat your working life... have a few decades to live on/amass a nest egg, then live on interest.
Snooze (Score:2)
Wake me up when someone makes the Geo Metro of electric cars. Affordable with incredible mileage. No stupid computer in the console gimmicky crap, no GPS, no remote start, AC and electrical windows optional.
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I got you covered.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]
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Re:Jihad (Score:4, Informative)
"electric car" is NOT synonymous with "self-driving car". Yes, you can have a self-driving gasoline-engine car. Yes, the jihadis could use one of those, too....