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The Almighty Buck Government United States

Alaska's Universal Basic Income Doesn't Increase Unemployment (businessinsider.com) 342

With Alaska's gubernatorial election coming up, Business Insider brings up a report from earlier this year which finds that the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend -- the only large-scale universal basic income program in the U.S. -- doesn't increase unemployment like many feared. An anonymous reader shares the report: The vast majority of Alaska's roughly 740,000 citizens support the dividend, which gives virtually every citizen an annual check of about $1,000 to $2,000 (that's $4,000 to $8,000 for a family of four), and both political parties in the state are in favor. Alaskans' feelings about this universal cash transfer are supported by the findings of a working paper published in February that was written by University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy professor Damon Jones and University of Pennsylvania School of Public Policy and Practice professor Ioana Marinescu -- the annual dividend does not realize fears that such a program would lead people to quit their jobs, lowering employment.

An additional $8,000 for a family is certainly not going to replace a livable income, but, as Jones and Marinescu noted in their paper, studies around a cash assistance experiment in the 1970s, lottery winnings, and a permanent fund dividend for the Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians reduced earned income, and critics of any universal basic income programs have pointed to such findings as proof that anything on a larger scale would be a disaster. But Jones and Marinescu found instead that the larger scale of the program is what allows it to work, and not dissuade people out of the work force. More specifically, Jones and Marinescu determined that part-time employment increased by 17% only in the non-tradable sector (jobs whose output isn't traded internationally), and that overall employment wasn't affected because more spending money results in more demand, and thus more jobs.

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Alaska's Universal Basic Income Doesn't Increase Unemployment

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  • No control group, no before/after, just a bold assertion. No doubt, sociologists.

    • "People trying to manipulate the job market find that manipulating the job market is good!" The full story at 11.

      • And additionally:

            "People who advocate manipulating the job market find that their policies do not reduce job opportunitys - during the biggest labor boom in 50 years!"

  • Wait, what? (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday October 31, 2018 @07:18PM (#57571603)

    Wait, people who argue that UBI would increase unemployment aren't arguing that $2,000 a year will do this. They argue that giving someone $2K a month would increase unemployment. $2K a year could net you a nice holiday But I don't even think you could live off that in a tent.

    • $2k/month is completely implausible. There is no way that is affordable.

      Most UBI proposals are for about $500/month, and even that requires dismantling Social Security, which would deprive tens of millions of people of their retirement income, generating a firestorm of political opposition.

      The problem with UBI is that the "losers" (elderly and people above median income) are WAY more politically organized than the "winners" (the young and poor). I can't see it happening in our political system.

      • by bondsbw ( 888959 )

        I don't know that it would dismantle Social Security as much as reinvent it. Consider that Social Security is already doomed to reduce benefits in a few years; people are starting to put less and less trust in it anyway.

      • Most UBI proposals are for about $500/month,

        [citation needed]

        and even that requires dismantling Social Security

        If you had a working UBI, you wouldn't need social security. Now back up your figure.

      • Most UBI proposals are for about $500/month, and even that requires dismantling Social Security, which would deprive tens of millions of people of their retirement income, generating a firestorm of political opposition.

        I drew up a Universal Dividend proposal that pays $500/month to each adult while making social security permanently-solvent. I dismantled nothing, raised no taxes, and created no additional deficit.

        There's a $900 billion increase in Federal outlay (I restructured $1.1 billion into $2 billion). When you remove the amount of the benefit offsetting its own funding from this, you find a $1,200 billion reduction. That's net $300 billion reduced taxes.

        For example, if you pay $4,000 into the FICA and receiv

    • Wait, people who argue that UBI would increase unemployment aren't arguing that $2,000 a year will do this. They argue that giving someone $2K a month would increase unemployment. $2K a year could net you a nice holiday But I don't even think you could live off that in a tent.

      Indeed. Another "UBI" test falls short on one of the three characters. In this case the "B". You can't survive on $2000 a year so this isn't "basic" income. It's a small boost.

    • But I don't even think you could live off that in a tent.

      Wrong.
      However, since this is Alaska, you'd have to also spend on something that'll keep you warm. So maybe two year's worth of allowance to pull this off. But a decent 4 season tent, self inflatable mattress, decently warm sleeping bag and a pillow is all you really need. (I'll assume you already have clothes...)

      After that, you just need food and water. Oh and a place to go eum.... well, you know.

      If you don't NEED to have chips and ice cream, you can easily split your allowance into 52 slices, you'll get ab

  • by Jahoda ( 2715225 ) on Wednesday October 31, 2018 @07:19PM (#57571607)
    Outside of the philosophical debate about universal income (which I am sure will inspire some of Slashdot's most endearing and totally-rational discussions), what I - a complete layman - find interesting about Permanent Fund is the way that it ensures that a portion of the profits from Alaska's mineral wealth remain inside their state, within their local communities, rather than being exported outside of the state to be thrown onto the pile of capital interests.

    I say this because one need only look no further than West Virginia for a look at what happens when the wealth of ~150 years of mining activity is exported out of the state and into the hands of a few. As far I can tell, it's pretty much the same basic after-effects as of colonialism in Africa.
  • by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday October 31, 2018 @07:33PM (#57571675)

    is full of holes. A large majority of Alaskans (I see this as well as the local stores - you should see the sales gimmicks at dividend time) simply use the money as disposable income and often blow it quickly on toys (Large Screen TVs, Vacations (my wife and I often use it to fund an out-of-state vacation). Sure, some use it to help offset the necessities at the start of School season (school clothes for your kids, etc), but most folks who are use to paycheck-to-paycheck living simply blow it. The malls are swimming with folks at dividend time. THIS IS NOT BASIC INCOME.

  • by manu0601 ( 2221348 ) on Wednesday October 31, 2018 @07:34PM (#57571679)

    8000 USD per year is the regressive UBI flavor. Of course nobody quits its job, since it is impossible to live on such a low income.

    On the other hand, employers will have a good reason to refuse raises: you already had 8000 USD. It will also be possible to hire with salary lower than before but still acceptable by workers, because of UBI help.

    In other word, an UBI that is not enough to live on it is just taxpayer money subsiding employers.

    • I doubt that the money is enough to pay for heating bills.
    • True but if minimum wage part time jobs make up the difference, people no longer have to improve themselves enough to earn a living wage. Did that sound too pessimistic about human nature (can't seem to find the appropriate term for this)?

    • Sounds logical, I wonder if there is any empirical evidence to show it is true?
    • 8000 USD per year is the regressive UBI flavor. Of course nobody quits its job, since it is impossible to live on such a low income.

      On the other hand, employers will have a good reason to refuse raises: you already had 8000 USD. It will also be possible to hire with salary lower than before but still acceptable by workers, because of UBI help.

      Here you are making the assumption that employers would raise wages by 8000 USD per year if the Dividend payment did not exist. This depends on a lot of factors and cannot be asserted in some blanket, universal way. Perhaps wihout the payment, employers would still pay the same wages they do now, simply due to the state of supply and demand in the labour market, and people would just have 8000 dollars less per year.

      • employers will have a good reason to refuse raises: you already had 8000 USD.

        Here you are making the assumption that employers would raise wages by 8000 USD per year if the Dividend payment did not exist.

        Here you are making the assumption that the GP made the assumption that the difference in raises is the full amount received from the permanent fund. But they could still give raises of only 2000 USD because you are making that 8000 USD and it would still be regressive.

        Wages in Alaska seem to be higher than in other places for the same jobs, in fact, but that can be chalked up to the fact that those jobs are in Alaska and you have to pay more to attract people. I'm open to the possibility that someone has s

    • That is all correct, however it isn't a negative. Currently we only subsidize employers that pay their workers at the lowest end of the payscale. With UBI everyone gets the same allotment and so all employers are subsidized to the same degree.

      If we adopted a nationwide UBI I would expect a few things to go along with it. Although some of the changes would probably happen gradually until UBI was enough to cover all the expenses of maintaining some minimal standard of living. I would expect all social welfare

  • In too many lives, if you born poor, you might live out the rest of your life poor.
  • Ontario was trying one, but Mr Ford II canceled it before we had collected any real data. It was being run for the province by a former candidate for head of the Federal Conservative party, Hugh Siegel. who was very interested in the numbers.

    --dave
    [Full disclosure: I campaigned for Hugh in the leadership campaign]

  • What UBI? (Score:5, Interesting)

    by MeNeXT ( 200840 ) on Wednesday October 31, 2018 @08:04PM (#57571773)

    There is no UBI program in Alaska.

    • I had the same thought, and this quote from TFS belies the headline:

      An additional $8,000 for a family is certainly not going to replace a livable income

  • When do we start drilling for oil in Washington State?

  • ... I thought Alaska was just some weird place that barely counted as a state and just had weirdos who elected some idiot woman as governor.

    That's what I heard around here anyway.

    How can we use that as an example?

  • We all know that we need universal health care and UBI.

    Yet, a small powerful segment of society will always fight it and postpone it.

    As a result of advertising and disinformation, we actually end up fighting ideas that should be very beneficial for us individually and as a society.

    We are beyond the talk of why to implement it. We should be talking about how.

    • A small section? No. A large section.

      California and Vermont started exploring universal health care and stopped. Why do you think? The machinations of a few or because they couldn't get it to work.

      Prove to me that UBI and universal health care works in your state before spreading this sh!t around.

      And this foolishness really doesn't work with open borders no does it?

      Take a look at the German left. They're for closing borders because they were faced with too options - renege on the promise of cont
  • You can increase demand by cutting taxes or interest rates.
    But if supply can't be ramped up, you're just going to create inflation along with the unemployment.

    And yes, the UBI amount is too low to be meaningful.

    • You can increase demand by cutting taxes or interest rates.

      Or by handing people money, at which point they have money to buy stuff.

      But if supply can't be ramped up, you're just going to create inflation along with the unemployment.

      We have oversupply. Over half our food is thrown away. Billions of pounds of clothing is landfilled every year. Supply is not the problem. Demand is the problem, and it is artificially limited by low wages.

  • Because that money comes from oil revenues, and burning fossil fuels is causing massive global disruption and, in many cases, regional and sectional unemployment.
  • Comment removed based on user account deletion
  • by iamacat ( 583406 ) on Thursday November 01, 2018 @12:34AM (#57572495)

    At the end of the day, we want people to have more essential goods and services rather than more green pieces of paper. So we want this basic impact to stimulate production of, say, diapers without cutting production of anything else important. Otherwise recepients of basic income will end up paying higher prices, encounter shortages or otherwise end up no better off. This is tricky because regular market economy is already supposed to optimize production.

    • At the end of the day, we want people to have more essential goods and services rather than more green pieces of paper. So we want this basic impact to stimulate production of, say, diapers without cutting production of anything else important.

      No, we don't care. Inflation is not a problem if everyone gets UBI which is tied to inflation. Instead, it's a benefit, because if your cash is constantly devaluing, you will be motivated to spend and/or invest it. This drives the economic activity which makes the entire system work.

  • WTH? (Score:5, Interesting)

    by Gription ( 1006467 ) on Thursday November 01, 2018 @12:54AM (#57572511)
    What idiot thinks that the Permanent Fund dividend is in any way shape or form an example of "Universal Basic Income"? That is totally ridiculous. It shows a complete lack of understanding of what the PFD is and what a "Universal Basic Income" is. They have NOTHING to do with each other. It is like calling your tax return a "Universal Basic Income".

    Obviously the writer of the article has a conclusion they want to justify and they are manufacturing a pathway to get there.
    Garbage in, garbage out.
    • Yup. I think UBI fundamentally misunderstands both economics and human psychology and think the Alaska Fund is a stupid comparison. Alaska is already constrained by other crazy non-market conditions which the fund seeks to level.

      GIGO is right.

  • It's not a UBI (Score:5, Informative)

    by Solandri ( 704621 ) on Thursday November 01, 2018 @03:02AM (#57572741)
    Alaska has some of if not the biggest oil reserves in the U.S., and makes money from selling oil to the lower 48 states. Instead of the state keeping those proceeds, it distributes it to Alaskan citizens. That makes it different from a UBI because the money comes from actual productivity. Something of value which belonged to each Alaskan citizen was sold, and they are receiving payment for it. Productive transactions like this are positive-sum (both the buyer and seller benefit), and are what make the economy work.

    That makes it different from a UBI where there's no additional productivity. In a UBI, you're just redistributing money among the population - taking from the more productive citizens via taxes, and distributing it to other citizens. That makes it zero-sum (one person wins, another person loses). It can have a positive influence if the people receiving the money were underpaid (what Ford stumbled upon when he paid his workers more) or causes people not to create other costs on society (e.g. not resorting to crime). Or it can have a negative influence if it leads people to decrease their average productivity because they'll get money regardless of whether they work.

    Venezuela is the perfect example of the difference between the two. When their oil exports were strong, it generated enough productivity (revenue from outside the country) to support their cushy socialist programs. But when the price of oil fell and that source of productivity dried up, they should've cut back the programs to match their decreased revenue. Instead, they tried to maintain the programs at the previous level. That doesn't work because unlike money, productivity is conserved - everything that's consumed has to be produced. If you try to create the illusion that production and consumption are not equal, the economy usually responds by altering the value of your currency to make the valuations of the two equal.

    That's what's driving the tremendous inflation they're experiencing. Basically the country is creating $100 in productivity, but promising its citizens $500 in handouts to consume stuff. When you do that, the currency devalues (suffers inflation) so that it now costs $500 to buy what used to cost $100, thereby keeping production and consumption equal.
  • Why not just give workers a $1000 tax exemption and then focus the effort on those who can't work for whatever reason? Why does the money have to circulate the government first before going back out?
  • Comment removed based on user account deletion
  • The Alaskan payments to all residents aren't a UBI program, it is a direct payment to residents by the state funded by oil production within the state of Alaska. Rather than the state keeping the money for general programs they pass the money on to every resident equally.

    Every UBI scheme previously discussed here was a ponzu scheme funded by taxpayers who funded their own payment through taxes, and intended to create a financial cushion in lieu of other social welfare programs.

    The Alaska program is 100% fun

  • This is not UBI.

    UBI, as a concept, is to provide for an individuals basic needs. And to go further saves society money by removing existing bureaucracies.

    This is a profit sharing system. The oil belongs to the people and the profits are shared by the people.

The explanation requiring the fewest assumptions is the most likely to be correct. -- William of Occam

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