A Critical Ocean System May Be Heading For Collapse Due to Climate Change (sfgate.com) 110
The Washington Post reports:
Human-caused warming has led to an "almost complete loss of stability" in the system that drives Atlantic Ocean currents, a new study has found — raising the worrying prospect that this critical aquatic "conveyer belt" could be close to collapse.
In recent years, scientists have warned about a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which transports warm, salty water from the tropics to northern Europe and then sends colder water back south along the ocean floor. Researchers who study ancient climate change have also uncovered evidence that the AMOC can turn off abruptly, causing wild temperature swings and other dramatic shifts in global weather systems. Scientists haven't directly observed the AMOC slowing down. But the new analysis, published Thursday in the journal Nature Climate Change, draws on more than a century of ocean temperature and salinity data to show significant changes in eight indirect measures of the circulation's strength. These indicators suggest that the AMOC is running out of steam, making it more susceptible to disruptions that might knock it out of equilibrium, says study author Niklas Boers, a researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Science in Germany.
If the circulation shuts down, it could bring extreme cold to Europe and parts of North America, raise sea levels along the east coast of the United States and disrupt seasonal monsoons that provide water to much of the world.
"This is an increase in understanding . . . of how close to a tipping point the AMOC might already be," said Levke Caesar, a climate physicist at Maynooth University who was not involved in the study. Boers' analysis doesn't suggest exactly when the switch might happen. But "the mere possibility that the AMOC tipping point is close should be motivation enough for us to take countermeasures," Caesar said. "The consequences of a collapse would likely be far-reaching..." The new analysis suggests "the critical threshold is most likely much closer than we would have expected," Boers said...
[T]he apparent consequences of the AMOC slowing are already being felt. A persistent "cold blob" in the ocean south of Greenland is thought to result from less warm water reaching that region. The lagging Gulf Stream has caused exceptionally high sea level rise along the east coast of the United States. Key fisheries have been upended by the rapid temperature swings, and beloved species are struggling to cope with the changes. If the AMOC does completely shut down, the change would be irreversible in human lifetimes, Boers said. The "bi-stable" nature of the phenomenon means it will find new equilibrium in its "off" state. Turning it back on would require a shift in the climate far greater than the changes that triggered the shutdown.
"It's one of those events that should not happen, and we should try all that we can to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as quickly as possible," Boers said. "This is a system we don't want to mess with."
In recent years, scientists have warned about a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which transports warm, salty water from the tropics to northern Europe and then sends colder water back south along the ocean floor. Researchers who study ancient climate change have also uncovered evidence that the AMOC can turn off abruptly, causing wild temperature swings and other dramatic shifts in global weather systems. Scientists haven't directly observed the AMOC slowing down. But the new analysis, published Thursday in the journal Nature Climate Change, draws on more than a century of ocean temperature and salinity data to show significant changes in eight indirect measures of the circulation's strength. These indicators suggest that the AMOC is running out of steam, making it more susceptible to disruptions that might knock it out of equilibrium, says study author Niklas Boers, a researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Science in Germany.
If the circulation shuts down, it could bring extreme cold to Europe and parts of North America, raise sea levels along the east coast of the United States and disrupt seasonal monsoons that provide water to much of the world.
"This is an increase in understanding . . . of how close to a tipping point the AMOC might already be," said Levke Caesar, a climate physicist at Maynooth University who was not involved in the study. Boers' analysis doesn't suggest exactly when the switch might happen. But "the mere possibility that the AMOC tipping point is close should be motivation enough for us to take countermeasures," Caesar said. "The consequences of a collapse would likely be far-reaching..." The new analysis suggests "the critical threshold is most likely much closer than we would have expected," Boers said...
[T]he apparent consequences of the AMOC slowing are already being felt. A persistent "cold blob" in the ocean south of Greenland is thought to result from less warm water reaching that region. The lagging Gulf Stream has caused exceptionally high sea level rise along the east coast of the United States. Key fisheries have been upended by the rapid temperature swings, and beloved species are struggling to cope with the changes. If the AMOC does completely shut down, the change would be irreversible in human lifetimes, Boers said. The "bi-stable" nature of the phenomenon means it will find new equilibrium in its "off" state. Turning it back on would require a shift in the climate far greater than the changes that triggered the shutdown.
"It's one of those events that should not happen, and we should try all that we can to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as quickly as possible," Boers said. "This is a system we don't want to mess with."
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you seem to be way ahead of us there
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Re: Covid - Climate Change (Score:1)
At leastbits more original than an asteroid, planet x, aliens, a plague or 16bit dates.
In other news: (Score:3)
Re: In other news: (Score:2)
Mind giving us a hint on what it will take before youâ(TM)re willing to acknowledge there may be a problem?
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When Slashdot starts posting stories in triplicate.
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When you're willing to acknowledge that the choices between solutions(As actually supported by the maths presented by you assholes) are to kill off over 90% of the human race(We'll start with you of course) and keep the population at that level or produce a sea change over to nuclear energy to the point where we have a stupidly massive surplus as there are plenty of industrial processes which accomplish the same outcomes on a much higher energy budget but lower CO2 budget. The penny ante "solutions" propose
Re: In other news: (Score:2)
So because you donâ(TM)t like the proposed solutions (nobody is advocating genocide, by the way) you feel thatâ(TM)s grounds to deny the problem. A real intellectual there.
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to kill off over 90% of the human race
Advocating for less births isn't the same as advocating for the death of the current living.
If every couple had a single child for 6 generations straight, increasing to 2 children per couple from the 7th generation onwards, humanity would first increase to about 14 billion people, then the total would begin decreasing, until it stabilized at around 800 million people from the 8th generation onwards.
This would take at the very minimum 160 years, but probably a few decades more if life expectancy keeps growin
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I'll believe that there is a "climate crisis" when the politicians start acting like it.
What does that look like? It looks like members of Congress ending their sessions for months at a time so that they are not traveling to DC all the time by airplane, and so the office buildings in DC can go dark. It looks like holding meeting remotely, perhaps taking routine votes remotely too.
It looks like giving the US Coast Guard and US Navy nuclear powered ships so the military is burning less petroleum fuel. It l
CAGW is real, the climate crisis is not. (Score:1)
I realized my post above may be taken the wrong way. There is a distinction between a "climate crisis" and "catastrophic anthropogenic global warming" or CAGW. A climate crises means nothing else matters, all efforts must be taken to lower CO2 yesterday, and no spending is too much because if we fail then we die. CAGW means we need to act soon, but not with such panic we put our economy and liberty at risk.
Dealing with CAGW looks a lot like dealing with a "climate crisis" only not with the panic of blowi
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You're talking about a legislature that can't keep bridges from falling down, in a political climate of total hysterical resistance at all costs.
You're more optimistic than I am.
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Oh no... not again.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?... [youtube.com]
Re:In other news: (Score:5, Insightful)
For once I don't mind.
Some things bear repeating, this isn't about another new 'phone which is 0.1mm thinner than the last one.
Difficult decision ... (Score:1)
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How does one get "better ad rates" from an audience that uses ad-blockers universally?
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How does one get "better ad rates" from an audience that uses ad-blockers universally?
Pssst. I'll let you in on a little secret: Many of the "articles" are just ads pretending to be news. They use the same strategy on their other site, BoingBoing. Not sure how or if they get paid for it though. Isn't there some kind of a requirement to say if a "news item" or an "article" was sponsored content?
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... do I call out the /. "editors" for posting yet another dupe [slashdot.org] ... or further repeat my theory that they're posting dupes on purpose to drive more engagement and, thus, better ad rates ... ?
They don't read what they post.
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That's OK. Most posters don't either.
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Sometimes I try to work out which editors are working on Macs, and in consequence post more non-ASCII characters than editors using less design-focused machines. But there's not a lot of mileage in that.
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The science is pretty conclusive that just as many places will get better weather as places that will be affected adversely from Global Warming.
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Rich people will just claim the insurance, ie. the poor people's insurance premiums will; all go up next year.
OTOH a bit of flooding along the north coast of the USA might be a good thing - wake a few people up!
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OTOH a bit of flooding along the north coast of the USA
Please point out the north coast of the USA on a map.
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OTOH a bit of flooding along the north coast of the USA
Please point out the north coast of the USA on a map.
Take a look at a map of Alaska.
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The states bordering the Great Lakes are known locally as the "North Coast" of the US.
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OTOH a bit of flooding along the north coast of the USA might be a good thing - wake a few people up!
On the north coast of the US the big political issue has been whether to name the single town Point Barrow or Nuvuk. A flood would be a welcome distraction from this urinary competition.
Evolution of the anti-science crowd (Score:3, Insightful)
2. We're not causing climate change
3. Climate change won't be so bad
4. Climate change might be bad, but shit happens
Re: Evolution of the anti-science crowd (Score:2)
Nope. That was also anti scientists. No such serious predictions was made. On the contrary the green house effect was known since the early 20th century
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It is true that you can get people to say things for money. What you cannot do is get VETTED esearch results for money. Physics is funny that way.
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I guess you don't pay attention to pharmaceutical studies.
Re: Evolution of the anti-science crowd (Score:1)
Evolution of a global warming story (Score:2)
1. We're all doomed, the end is nigh
2. We're all doomed, but in a few years
3. We're all doomed, if this model is correct
4. Think of the polar bears
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"last time something like this occurred (1400s) where thermohaline circulation was halted in the N. Atlantic"
The page you linked to says it weakened, no mention of stopping.
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Re: this is nonsense (Score:3)
Oh, it's nice to see a real expert here on Slashdot, as opposed to all those peers reviewed crackpots. /sarcasm
On a more serious note: publish your opposing view in a peer review journal, along with your real name, and a stake in reputation to go with it. And the implicit proof that you've spent a lifetime or so studying climate, ocean streams, geology, meteorology or whatever.
Since I'm not an expert myself, I'd like to hear your peers make the contradictions. Then I'll might - or not - be inclined to consi
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Little ice age-- current weakened. Big ice age-- Current stopped, and most of Europe and North America was under a glacier.
Gonna be tough growing crops in the midwest either way.
But will this convince China and India? (Score:4, Insightful)
The reaction of China (and indeed the other countries doing 75% and growing of global emissions) is likely to be to welcome it.
There is no way they are all going to reduce their emissions with the associated costs for their economies. You can see this in China's case, they are building out coal generation internally and abroad as fast as they can. India has rejected requests for reduction.
So I am not sure who this is directed to. The suggestion is that we the West should wake up and reduce emissions to save the Gulf Stream. We cannot. Even if we reduced our emissions to zero, given what everyone else is doing, it will not materially reduce global emissions below current levels.
And if requested to reduce so as to save the Gulf Stream, the Chinese response is likely going to be one of the sooner the better. What do they care about the Gulf Stream? In fact, all those dire consequences are probably things they would welcome.
I am not sure by the way about the science - I seem to recall stories in the UK Independent forecasting the end of the Gulf Stream, think it was back in the nineties. The science did not seem to support it back then, because there was no way that a warming would affect it. No mechanism.
But anyway, if it is a threat, and if its due to global emissions, there is no way China and India are going to be motivated to help with it, so get ready to live with it.
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I think they do deny the problem. Much more so than the US. They didn't sign up to any limits in Paris. They are building out coal generation as fast as they can. What they say is a lot less evidential about what they think than what they do.
It is correct that if there really is a climate emergency coming, it will impact China very seriously. Just as a matter of geography and population, China is probably more exposed to weather events and climate change than most places. Not as bad as Bangladesh, but
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Keep in mind that poor nations, and people, tend to focus on the here and now rather than decades out. This is simply the survival instinct and Maslow's hierarchy of needs. China is no longer poor, but it takes a while to grow out of that mentality.
They correctly point out that the West was "allowed" to pollute to grow, so they feel they have the same right.
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To be fair, it's not entirely corporatism. It's a group effort. Citizens enjoyed low prices and got to shift primary pollution out of their neighborhoods. It may not have been a conscience plan, but aggregate desires and preferences pushed things that way anyhow.
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The argument that 'its only fair' is commonly used in these discussions. Its completely illogical. This is how it goes.
Someone (me) points out that the West is currently emitting only around 25% of global CO2 emissions, and falling. China on the other hand is emitting 30% and rising. China mines and burns more coal than the rest of the world put together. China also shows every intention of increasing all of the above, it has thousands of coal fired stations in planning, both domestically and in other
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What do they care about the Gulf Stream?
https://img2.cgtrader.com/item... [cgtrader.com]
Without the global oceanic conveyor, where will China find moisture for clouds? Maybe they can yell at it and demand that there used to be clouds, so they own those clouds?
think it was back in the nineties
That's not thinking, that's wishing that reality matched your worldview, a type of magical thinking. In the 90s, they were warning about what is happening now. Duh. they warned. Now it is happening; the gulf stream has slowed dramatically already. Already. And there isn't much seasonal ice left to wish an
new plant versus utilisation (Score:2)
Self correcting? (Score:5, Interesting)
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This is the basis of the 'global cooling' theory of anthropic climate change that was popular in the late last century. The one that all the AGW proponents pooh-poohed. Until someone actually did some math and said, "Yeah. Looks like there is a negative feedback loop."
Look folks, the science isn't done yet. If you expect us to make economically significant decisions, you need to have things nailed down to where your cute little theory actually predicts something useful. It's not bad science. But you still
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He left the field some years ago over the politics in the scientific community: too much infighting and not enough science. That's a problem throughout the scientific community, really. The less your proposed research is perceived to fit in with the prevailing ideas the more other scientists will try to stymie your
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This is the basis of the 'global cooling' theory of anthropic climate change that was popular in the late last century.
Wow, that takes me back. I don't think I've even heard AGW denialists bothering to push the old "Oh no the scientists all believed in global cooling before!!!! [wikipedia.org]" nonsense for at least 5 years, probably longer.
It's like seeing someone showing up at a party wearing a mullet and thinking they look cool.
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Oh and swine flu vax! Thalidomide!
Just waiting to see how far off the topic the mad rambling will go. Don't stop. I have plenty of popcorn left.
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It's all just "popcorn" until there are no cheesypoofs left with you clucksticks. You've got your head stuffed so far up your television you can't imagine that you live on planet Earth.
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He included a theory[sic] that once the Gulf stream is disrupted, the artic area would freeze up again within 30 years and the Gulf stream would start up again.
If not for things like melting permafrost it would have been a reasonable hypothesis.
The Day After Tomorrow (Score:2)
Democrats Against Climate Change (Score:1)
Many Climate Change activists are in attendance and flew in especially for this event.
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Different strokes, different folks (Score:2)
Yes, parts of Europe might get colder. And the British Isles, where in parts of Ireland, palm trees grow now because of the gulf current, https://www.smithsonianmag.com... [smithsonianmag.com] will likely be really hit. The Center of the British Isles are roughly the same latitude as Edmonton, Alberta in Canada.
So we can
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where in parts of Ireland, palm trees grow now because of the gulf current,
To be fair, many types of palm trees grow in well below freezing temperatures.
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where in parts of Ireland, palm trees grow now because of the gulf current,
To be fair, many types of palm trees grow in well below freezing temperatures.
Yeah, but considering that latitude, it's pretty unusual at around 53 degrees north. (center point of the British Isles)
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Only because so few people are palm connoisseurs like I am. Sigh.
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Only because so few people are palm connoisseurs like I am. Sigh.
Ah, an aficionado of palmistry, I see! 8^)
How do you rise sea levels in just one location? (Score:2)
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exceptionally high sea level rise
I guess if it's .10cm rise and everyone else has risen .01cm then it is exceptionally high? They make is sound like the entire coastline will be flooded.
The moon causes high and low tides, but that is a big object in space. I guess maybe there is a siphoning effect in that area causing sea level to be lower right now?
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More that things change, more they stay the same (Score:1)
This is a Terrific Article (Score:2)
May be (Score:2)
May be. But it's not.