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The Almighty Buck The Internet

Your Credit Score Should Be Based On Your Web History, IMF Says (gizmodo.com) 220

An anonymous reader quotes a report from Gizmodo: In a new blog post for the International Monetary Fund, four researchers presented their findings from a working paper that examines the current relationship between finance and tech as well as its potential future. Gazing into their crystal ball, the researchers see the possibility of using the data from your browsing, search, and purchase history to create a more accurate mechanism for determining the credit rating of an individual or business. They believe that this approach could result in greater lending to borrowers who would potentially be denied by traditional financial institutions. At its heart, the paper is trying to wrestle with the dawning notion that the institutional banking system is facing a serious threat from tech companies like Google, Facebook, and Apple. The researchers identify two key areas in which this is true: Tech companies have greater access to soft-information, and messaging platforms can take the place of the physical locations that banks rely on for meeting with customers.

The concept of using your web history to inform credit ratings is framed around the notion that lenders rely on hard-data that might obscure the worthiness of a borrower or paint an unnecessarily dire picture during hard times. Citing soft-data points like "the type of browser and hardware used to access the internet, the history of online searches and purchases" that could be incorporated into evaluating a borrower, the researchers believe that when a lender has a more intimate relationship with the potential client's history, they might be more willing to cut them some slack. [...] But how would all this data be incorporated into credit ratings? Machine learning, of course. It's black boxes all the way down. The researchers acknowledge that there will be privacy and policy concerns related to incorporating this kind of soft-data into credit analysis. And they do little to explain how this might work in practice.

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Your Credit Score Should Be Based On Your Web History, IMF Says

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  • by TigerPlish ( 174064 ) on Thursday August 19, 2021 @05:22PM (#61709283)

    ..or whatever they call the judging-you thing over there.

    Credit Score should be "Do I pay my bills on time y / n". The rest is nobody's business.

    • by saloomy ( 2817221 ) on Thursday August 19, 2021 @05:23PM (#61709293)
      Wouldn't bother me. I can just script whatever browsing gets me a higher score before any credit decisions, and anonymously browse for all my actual browsing. VMs and proxies are easy to set up
      • by TigerPlish ( 174064 ) on Thursday August 19, 2021 @05:29PM (#61709327)

        For every you there's probably at least 100, or maybe 1000 that can't, or won't. But I agree, what you're thinking of sounds about what'll have to happen if this develops.

        "Mmm mm. What taste this one has in literature.... we'll have to keep an eye on this one for sure." Only a machine will think that line, not a human.

        Would that fall under Minitruth or Miniluv?

        Miniluv, I think.

      • and you'd do jail time for it. Especially if something big ticket like a mortgage was involved.
      • Re: (Score:2, Informative)

        by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

        I've been maintaining fake personas online for years. You can buy a burner SIM on eBay for a buck or two, pre-activated, which then gets you accounts on all the major sites.

        Some are just to separate out work and personal stuff, some are to prevent doxing and cross-site harassment. If I ever need to show social media history or something like that I've got some extremely boring accounts to produce, well away from the real stuff. Never had to so far but I got worried when the US was talking about it for enter

        • Re: (Score:3, Funny)

          by BAReFO0t ( 6240524 )

          > Hi I'm selling those burner SIMs.

          > Now you know why they are so cheap.

          > All the best,

          > -- FBI

      • This, as a service.

      • It wouldn't last long if it were based just on what websites you visit. It mentions your history of online purchases. I can't decide whether to be 1) incredulous they could accomplish that, or 2) surprised they aren't already since customer data is bought/sold between companies.

        For example I just got an amazon card for the 5% rebate on amazon purchases. Is that offer really just dependent on your FICO and not your amazon shopping history?

        • "This guy has $2000 worth of Asuka Langley figurines."
          "Lower his credit score, everyone knows Rei is better."

      • I can just script whatever browsing gets me a higher score

        If you know enough to do that, your normal browsing will likely give you a high score.

        Using tech sites like Stackoverflow, Github, and even Slashdot correlates with stable income and responsible debt repayments.

        TikTok, Instagram, and OnlyFans? Not so much.

      • It "Wouldn't bother" you until the kind of people who propose and promote these types of social engineering projects discover that you are gaming the system Lacking a credit score, any employment prospects, and a non-felony criminal record. I would say that you would have a serious bother. I would say that you would be SOL.
      • Wouldn't bother me. I can just script whatever browsing gets me a higher score before any credit decisions, and anonymously browse for all my actual browsing. VMs and proxies are easy to set up

        That is why even if the researchers' results are totally accurate, any such algorithm would be too easily gamed to be implementable.

      • by sound+vision ( 884283 ) on Friday August 20, 2021 @12:07AM (#61710283) Journal

        It wouldn't be the history in your web browser, or anything you have access to directly. The data would come from Google, Amazon, Facebook, etc. Some of that could be faked or obscured, but it's a lot more involved than setting up a proxy.

        If you want your Amazon orders to be anonymous, you couldn't send them to your house. Maybe set up a P.O. box just for them? But I assume P.O. boxes have to be registered in some way, so that could be cross-referenced to end up in your report. Social media sites and messaging apps are making it impossible to sign up without giving up some identifying information. Typically a working phone number, but sometimes requiring everything up to a government ID if your signup gets flagged as suspicious - like if you give them a Google Voice number, or sign up from a known proxy/VPN IP, or one that could be a proxy, like an IP belonging to a data center or colo.

        This isn't rampant speculation either, I used to work for a hosting company that was already doing this 10 years ago. Part of my job was investigating flagged signups, including asking for photo ID. We didn't have access to "Big Data" of course, so it was all cross-checking that the IP address was from a residential IP from the same area as the credit card payment, (etc)... But Big Data is always looking for ways to monetize their horde. Background check & credit reporting companies - increasingly becoming intertwined as "risk management" - would be highly interested in having all this data. Employers, banks, etc would be highly interested in buying it from them.

        The only reason the US's privatized Social Credit Score hasn't quite gelled yet, is the suits are still figuring out how to make the most money from it. The technical capacity, the raw data, is already there, collected into a few massive piles. Once a deal's struck between the pilekeepers, it'll be done. The fact that the IMF is now pimping this idea out tells you how seriously it's being pushed.

        It won't be just for the US either. The system will be sold internationally, as a competitor to the Chinese social credit system. Note that the US risk management company LexisNexis was kicked out of China in 2017 for refusing the government's request to modify data in their reports. They recognize these products are competitors to their social credit system.

        If you think you can avoid it, well, I hope you've never given your real name or number for a social media account, and done only Tor browsing for the last 15 years. Because they didn't start collecting the data today.

    • Actually it sounds more like a step towards Black Mirror's Nosedive episode [wikipedia.org].
    • The credit score also needs to establish how much credit you should be given as well. Generally it seems ineffective at this though, and is based much more on loose collection of information that doesn’t actually say much.

      I have no long term or debt history, but have a great payment history at least for the last 15 years. But, in the course of a couple months I checked out a car loan and mortgage, as well as trying to replace a few of my stupidly low limit credit cards with a single high limit card. S

    • I'd rather it was more like a criminal record. If I apply for a job I'm asked about convictions in some cases, but never am I asked how many old ladies I helped across the street, how many times I put money in the charity tin, or how many times I bought lunch for a homeless man. If I've never missed a payment, then there is no problem.

  • Fuck the IMF (Score:2, Insightful)

    by Anonymous Coward

    No, Fuck 'em.

    International money laundering cult designed to funnel money from poor countries back to their neo-colonial masters.

    Shove that up your web history, you cunts.

    • Precisely this.

      Don't forget they also were used to funnel that money to Boris Yeltsin to make him win in that Russian election that the CIA bragged about manipulating in the Washington Post.
      You know... Yeltsin... that drunk dancing bear that put Putin in power. Apart from running through Berlin in his underpants.

      The IMF is basically what everybody means, when they hatefully say "they".

    • Re: (Score:2, Interesting)

      by Opportunist ( 166417 )

      The international mafia front.

      Let's be honest here, that's basically their reason to exist. When you look at what the IMF does, it's basically waiting like a vulture for a poor country to finally flounder, then dangle a wad of cash in front of their eyes with the choice of either fail completely or basically sell their assets for pennies to foreigners and let them eat the few things that are still valuable like the locusts they are before then letting the country fail completely.

      No country in history has be

  • Surveillance crap aside, how is this even supposed to work? For me, you would have to assemble this from several different computers.

    • Just ask the NSA for your credit-worthiness.

    • by MrL0G1C ( 867445 ) on Thursday August 19, 2021 @05:54PM (#61709445) Journal

      I don't think they care how it works, they're info-perverts salivating at the thought of getting every nth degree of info about your life onto their computers. This is a lame attempt at being 10x worse than 1984.

      Gov'ts and corporations are insane, they both want every last detail of every moment of everyone's life, for absolute control and for maximum profit.

    • What about those of us that browse exclusively in incognito mode?

      • Don't worry, you'll be able to continue pretending that "incognito mode" does anything more than dump your local session history to keep your wife from asking questions about all the gay porn sites you visit.
        • Well it dumps my cookies too. I know this because I have to re-enter my fetishes while searching for porn.

        • Good. The existing credit sites advise you on actions to take to lift credit, and from my experience closet gay guys often make up a pretty tight cooperative group near the top of many a corporate ladder. I would not want ANY gay porn I view to concealed therefore, and would not be surprised if Credit Karma advised me to look at more, if this strange new IMF world moves foward.

    • Bring it on! That way we can sue google for every fucking penny they have when they lock your account. Because now, they will have actually financially harmed you. Goodbye fortune 500; hello soup kitchen. Eat one and the rest will go running for the hills. They will have a choice, either give up any semblance of censorship, or risk a wave of class action lawsuits. In fact the minute something like this goes into effect these sources of Web History become subject to government regulations. See the Fair Credi
    • Surveillance crap aside, how is this even supposed to work? For me, you would have to assemble this from several different computers.

      It's kinda nuts. How in the hell are they going to tell anything about me from my browsing history - other than I'm a weird geek. I live on Wikipedia and Slashdot, with forays to Facebook because I have to, and look up various electronic, optical and physics. And some Youtube where I watch Sabine Hossenfelder's Physics, and Scott Manley's rocketry channels.

      What's that even have to do with me paying my bills and loans or not?

      • Probably means you're a good credit risk. If you were looking at BET tv news then you would be a bad credit risk.

    • Seems clear to me. Being 'anonymous' on the Internet would no longer be allowed, you'd probably have to use your real name everywhere, and any attempts to anonymize your traffic would be illegal. Otherwise you could commit fraud by hiding your true intentions and actions.
      It's all crap. What they're describing would be the end of even any pretense of privacy. You'd literally be under a microscope all the time. In fact you'd be required to use the Internet, required to have 'social media' accounts, and so on
  • From December 2020 (Score:5, Informative)

    by i'm probably drunk ( 6159770 ) on Thursday August 19, 2021 @05:30PM (#61709339)

    This is hardly new. Both the IMF blog post and Gizmodo article are from December 2020.

  • and I can fabricate any web history I wish.

  • Oh hell no (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Mononymous ( 6156676 ) on Thursday August 19, 2021 @05:32PM (#61709353)

    Credit score is supposed to be a measurement of the likelihood that you will pay your debts.
    Do they claim to have some sort of data demonstrating a link between that and "the type of browser and hardware used to access the internet, the history of online searches and purchases"? Or is this about offering lenders something else of value to get them to take bigger risks?

    Obviously the worst part of all of this is yet another justification for spying. Is this supposed to use cookies and user agent strings? Cause the bad guys already don't get what they want from me using those.

    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      Yeah, if you live in a poor zip code and blow your money on bling like an iphone, and your browsing history is a bunch of hood rat shit. You're probably not a good candidate for credit.
      • And how is that more helpful than just knowing you keep your low-limit credit card maxed out and only make the minimum monthly payment, usually late?

    • We need to know if they are reliable since they are handling our money.
    • by Cederic ( 9623 )

      It's already a factor in credit decisions. Has been for a few years now.

      Admittedly primarily in a fraud and AML context, rather than directly assessing credit risk, but there are online behaviours that can influence a credit score.

      Disclosure: Have worked for banks, have worked for a credit reference agency.

  • type of browser and hardware so use windows or get an bad score paid for by MS

  • Just a sec ... (Score:4, Insightful)

    by PPH ( 736903 ) on Thursday August 19, 2021 @05:35PM (#61709361)

    ... while I bring up my 'bots visiting Conde Nast, The Robb Report and Harvard Business Review. And then get back to my anonymous proxy to peruse PornHub.

  • You had that one hit, 30 years ago. What do you know about finance, IMF?

  • What? (Score:4, Insightful)

    by fahrbot-bot ( 874524 ) on Thursday August 19, 2021 @05:38PM (#61709375)

    Citing soft-data points like "the type of browser and hardware used to access the internet, the history of online searches and purchases" that could be incorporated into evaluating a borrower, ...

    That's pure crap. My browser, PC hardware and the websites I visit have nothing to do with my credit worthiness. My hardware is old(er) because it gets the job done and I got almost all of it free from friends who were upgrading to new systems. I put more ram and/or an upgraded CPU into some and they're great. Also, I have several systems, running Windows and Linux (also with Windows in a VM). I mostly use Firefox, but sometimes also Chrome and, very occasional, Edge -- mainly for some MS sites. I'm 99% sure I *won't* be "upgrading" to Windows 11 as my systems won't support it -- which will finally force to onto Linux full-time (I've been lazy). Also, I browse a *lot* of sites over the course of a day some for personal interest and some for professional.

    Honestly, I can imagine how all that would factor into my credit worthiness. Being debt-free and financially-independent, paying off my CC in full every month (forever) and never missing a payment on anything over my 55+ years should say a lot more than the type of browser and hardware I currently own and websites I read.

    • Are you suggesting that your browsing history is not strongly predictive of your browsing history, or do you merely object to the idea of it being determinative?

    • Re: What? (Score:5, Insightful)

      by NagrothAgain ( 4130865 ) on Thursday August 19, 2021 @08:02PM (#61709839)

      That's pure crap. My browser, PC hardware and the websites I visit have nothing to do with my credit worthiness.

      Wrong. It tells them if you're an "average" consumer who fits into their standard credit lrofile or not.

      Honestly, I can imagine how all that would factor into my credit worthiness. Being debt-free and financially-independent, paying off my CC in full every month (forever) and never missing a payment on anything over my 55+ years should say a lot more than the type of browser and hardware I currently own and websites I read.

      It says that they're probably not going to make much money off of you. But not likely to lose much either. You're worth keeping around as long as they're making profit from your transaction fees, but not worth pursuing or working hard to keep.

      • Iphone users might be a better credit risk than Android users.
        That probably gives you less information than knowing income would, but you never know unless you look at the data.
        And of course, PC is master race.

  • Already happening (Score:4, Insightful)

    by locater16 ( 2326718 ) on Thursday August 19, 2021 @05:38PM (#61709379)
    Already happening in China, or it was until the government there decided tech companies weren't communist enough. Ant Financial tracked all sorts of shite for loan application. Though perhaps your credit score should be very high if you don't have much of a browsing history because you're smart enough to install tracking blockers.
  • B.S. (Score:4, Insightful)

    by rsilvergun ( 571051 ) on Thursday August 19, 2021 @05:39PM (#61709383)
    They believe it would be more beneficial to the banking system. I can tell you this much the more information the banks have about people the less likely they are to loan money out. Banks are much more likely to loan money to someone who's unable to pay by mistake then they are to deny that loan. But is there information gets better and better they reduce their spread of risk and this means it's harder and harder to borrow money.

    That sounds good except the efficiency we get from that where the banks lose less money doesn't make it down to the trenches where you and I live. The result is that money is just gone from the economy and the banks just pocketed and put it in their giant vault so they can dive into its Scrooge McDuck style. Over time it becomes another item that contributes to our entire economy seizing up because there's no Capital moving in it.

    This isn't to say that the solution is to make Banks loan money to deadbeats, rather we should be coming up with ways to get money and capital flowing into our economy whether the banks are going to do it or not (they're not). But the important takeaway is that as Big Data improves efficiency we need to consider what the knock-on effects of these massive increases to efficiency and productivity are going to really mean.
    • I can tell you this much the more information the banks have about people the less likely they are to loan money out.

      Citation needed. There is both a false positive rate and a false negative rate at work here. Frankly, I doubt that you have the smallest whit of information regarding either. But such is the internet that people love to make definitive statements about matters which they are wholly ignorant.

      • They're too big to fail, so they're much more likely to take a risk lending money if the payout might be there. But better information tells them when the payout isn't there. Reason to false negative rate is higher is because they're much less risk averse than you and I are.

        And again the main problem is that that money would normally be circulating through the economy and now it's going to be locked up in a vault somewhere. Digitally or otherwise.
    • That sounds good except the efficiency we get from that where the banks lose less money doesn't make it down to the trenches where you and I live.

      If banks losing less money is bad, banks losing more money must be good, and banks losing all their money would be best of all.

      The result is that money is just gone from the economy and the banks just pocketed and put it in their giant vault so they can dive into its Scrooge McDuck style.

      Yes. That's exactly what they do. And the novelty of diving into a pile of money never wears off.

    • It's ok I don't want a loan from the IMF anyway.

    • by Luckyo ( 1726890 )

      This is nonsense. Banks make money on correctly pricing risk. The better they can understand how risky the investment, the less hedging they need to do on the side of "can't take too much risk".

      The obvious exception here is the people who shouldn't get loans at all. The more bank knows about them, the more correctly they price the risk of investing into such people at "too high to be affordable".

      For everyone else, the more bank knows about them, as long as their loan request is reasonable and fits their fin

  • I recall an old Felix the Cat where he was a loan officer and had his dog smell the would be borrower's left shoe to determine credit worthiness. I suspect that was slightly more accurate than some voodoo based on what websites you visited last year.

  • No lending to open source commies!
  • "....researchers believe that when a lender has a more intimate relationship with the potential client's history, they might be more willing to cut them some slack..."

    Seriously? Have they EVER dealt with a bank or lender, ever? Credit agency? Loan officer?

    • by Cederic ( 9623 )

      Standard indicators: Good credit, lend them money.

      Ok, but what if you don't have a good credit history. You've just left school, you rent instead of having a mortgage, you've been sensible and spent from savings instead of incurring debt. You're still someone a bank wants to lend to, but they now need another mechanism to assess risk.

      Why wouldn't they explore other things that may at a population level help them understand individuals and whether lending money would be an appropriate interaction?

  • House has a couple k left until it's paid off. About 5 years early.

    Haven't had a car in 7 years.

    Don't have any credit cards.

    Pay for most things in cash.

    Tell me what I need a credit score for?

  • Would it raise it, or lower it???

  • In the 1990s, early 2000s, being a Slashdot reader was predictive of long term success and wealth. The entire future of IT, in ONE website. FFWD 2021, we're still debating Silverlight vs Flash.
    • In the 1990s, early 2000s, being a Slashdot reader was predictive of long term success and wealth. The entire future of IT, in ONE website.

      FFWD 2021, we're still debating Silverlight vs Flash.

      Dude, emacs is the answer.

  • Cash will be king again.

  • by eepok ( 545733 ) on Thursday August 19, 2021 @06:43PM (#61709589) Homepage

    One's credit score (as a quantification of the probability of repaying varying levels of debt with minimal complications) should be based on only a few things:

    1. History paying bills
    2. History paying off debt
    3. Current income
    4. Variability of recent work history/income
    5. Cash on hand
    6. Collateral

    That handles like 95% of knowable risk. What they're talking about doing is trying to cover another 1-2% of the risk and it's fine for them because a gain is a gain but the cost to the borrower is a ridiculous loss of privacy.

    • by Cederic ( 9623 )

      You're thinking standard case. Now eliminate 1, 2 and 6, understand that many people with regular incomes struggle to demonstrate reliability for 3 and 4 and obviously 5 incurs fraud and other risks.

      That's a whole tranche of people that your approach would reject, many of whom are perfectly able to pay back a loan.

      Why shouldn't other approaches be used to understand which of them should be extended credit?

      (I don't agree with the loss of privacy too, and nobody wanting to lend me money gets my browsing histo

  • The machine will figure out what other lenders you've shopped, so they can figure out how stupid you are. It will figure out how good you are at finding bargains. It will figure out how much time you spend on FaceTwit searching garage sales instead of buying quality new stuff.

    Or, maybe not.

  • I think this a surreptitious way to get more surveillance and it was concocted by the big tech firms and big brother type countries
  • Without a bank's physical location, where do I go for a safe deposit box?

  • I can't seem to figure it out.
  • IMF: Insane Mother Fuckers
  • Absent the lala land of the IMF and in the real world there are investors, many of them with money in banks. They want a return on that investment with responsible stewardship of their capital. No way in hell they're going to allow a bank to dump looking at financial history to replace it with your web browsing history and some arbitrary items such as what brand and model of hardware you are accessing the web with to determine if they should lend you money or not. If I was lending out money I'd want to k
  • by fjorder ( 5219645 ) on Friday August 20, 2021 @01:47AM (#61710381)
    The title of this post is misleading.. this is some obscure post on the IMF website, not an official statement on behalf of the whole IMF. Thereâ(TM)s even a disclaimer â The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF and its Executive Board.â(TM) So I think everyone can calm down ;). Itâ(TM)s a pity they let this stupidity get posted, really just fueling conspiracy theories.
  • Whether you have criticised the IMF recently.

  • Your income is good, you pay your bills, but must reject you as you liked and retweeted a number of problematic Twitter posts.

  • by JoeRobe ( 207552 ) on Friday August 20, 2021 @06:51AM (#61710923) Homepage

    Is there hard data to link web usage trends to credit worthiness? I don't see it in the white paper. The only way I see that as a possibly useful link is if your browsing trends include sign-ins to your banking and credit card websites to check on money availability and level of debt (maybe more frequent visits means more attention to debt and therefore more fiscal responsibility?). Even then, that's a real thin, easily broken line.

    Would they also like access to the books and magazines I read? My diet? The TV shows I watch? My sleep schedule? I'm betting there are thousands of these types of factors in daily life that loosely correlate with credit score, but that doesn't mean a credit score company is entitled to them. That would make us slaves to those metrics. Want to get a better rate on a loan? Go to a few specific webpages, read some Tolstoy, eat 3 peaches per week and get 5 hours of sleep per night. Also, unfriend that guy you vaguely knew in high school and stop picking your nose. Congratulations! Your credit score went up 10 points!

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