Crypto Hedge Fund Three Arrows Fails To Meet Lender Margin Calls (ft.com) 124
Three Arrows Capital failed to meet demands from lenders to stump up extra funds after its digital currency bets turned sour, tipping the prominent crypto hedge fund into a crisis that comes as a credit crunch grips the industry. Financial Times reports: The group's failure to meet margin calls this past weekend makes the group the latest victim of an acute fall in the prices of many tokens like bitcoin and ether that is rippling across the market. Singapore-based Three Arrows is among the biggest and most active players in the crypto industry with investments across lending and trading platforms. Lenders have sharply tightened up how much credit is on offer following tremors over the past month.
Celsius, a major crypto financial services company, blocked withdrawals last week, while a pair of major tokens collapsed in May. US-based crypto lender BlockFi was among the groups that liquidated at least some of Three Arrows's positions, meaning it reduced its exposure by taking collateral the fund had put down to back its borrowing, according to people familiar with the matter. Three Arrows, which made a "strategic" investment in BlockFi in 2020, had borrowed bitcoin from the lender, the people said, but had been unable to meet a margin call. One of the people said the liquidation had occurred by mutual consent.
Celsius, a major crypto financial services company, blocked withdrawals last week, while a pair of major tokens collapsed in May. US-based crypto lender BlockFi was among the groups that liquidated at least some of Three Arrows's positions, meaning it reduced its exposure by taking collateral the fund had put down to back its borrowing, according to people familiar with the matter. Three Arrows, which made a "strategic" investment in BlockFi in 2020, had borrowed bitcoin from the lender, the people said, but had been unable to meet a margin call. One of the people said the liquidation had occurred by mutual consent.
Prophetic Name (Score:3)
Looks like the "three arrows" are the ones they are putting in your back.
Three Arrows (Score:2)
Re: (Score:1)
Down Goes Fraziercoin! (Score:3)
Re: Down Goes Fraziercoin! (Score:3, Insightful)
Re: (Score:2)
Over the centuries the value of gold has increased. It's not monotonic, but if you keep holding, it will keep increasing in value. Of course, you may need to hold for quite awhile.
Note: There may be a technical innovation that will change this. ISTM the most likely is that waste from refining some other metal contains sufficient gold to be worth recovering.
Both gold and silver have this track record. (Score:1)
Over the centuries the value of gold has increased. It's not monotonic, but if you keep holding, it will keep increasing in value.
Thought I should bring up that silver has the same track record - and this record is unbroken over thousands of years, though hundreds of currency collapses. Because that is what all currency not backed by precious metals or anything tangible does, it eventually collapses.
There really isn't any innovation that can change this, even if recovery methods improve they cannot offset
Re: (Score:1)
Because that is what all currency not backed by precious metals or anything tangible does, it eventually collapses.
You do realize gold caused the first hyperinflation event in the world, and silver caused the 2nd, and both led us to realize that holding a tangible things does NOT make you wealthy? If so, then the Spanish Empire should've had complete
Re: (Score:3)
And to be clear, very few people actually own gold, they own a fiat thing called an IOU for some gold
This is the single most important point. Unless you can physically put the gold in your hand at any moment to fulfill even your slightest whimsy, what you actually own is a contract right. The trade price on that contract requires a functioning market. If the system actually goes into collapse, then that market will stop functioning, preventing you from trading it, and thus the effective value of your contractually held gold will be zero dollars.
But wait! We have SIPC to protect covered investing accounts!
W
Re: (Score:2)
This is the single most important point. Unless you can physically put the gold in your hand
Yes this is important, "buy gold" (and silver) means making sure you are buying at least what is called "allocated" gold and silver, but it's also great to have some you keep around the house. These days it's good to have some stored at the house and some in online accounts (like vaulted gold/silver or trusts like PSLV) just to reduce risk (from things like theft or fire).
Regardless, people will always need some me
Re: (Score:2)
hard assets like real estate need to drop by half before any stability returns
If you (magically) cut the housing prices by half, you're going to upside-down a significant portion of the population's mortgages -- basically anyone that bought within the last 5 years.
How about we actually do something that matters (and is realistic) instead, like building more housing within high-demand areas, and providing individual buyers with a general right of first refusal before institutional buyers can scoop up property at the listed price point?
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
So... why not platinum, or iron, or any other random metal in the ground?
Because they do not have the properties and track record that gold and silver have.
For each one you could probably find some root reason (platinum is probably too rare to take on this role, iron of course corrodes where gold/silver do not, etc).
But basically it comes down to - for thousands of years people keep returning to gold and silver as a store of value in a way that simply is not true for other metals.
You do realize gold caused
Re: (Score:2)
False, they did not cause the hyper-inflation, they provided an escape from the hyper-inflation underway.
You may want to look at some history about gold-as-currency, with a particular focus on Spain...
Re: (Score:2)
Deflation is much, much worse. Ideal conditions for the economy is inflation at 2% - you see that all over the news. I could point out some things really, really bad about deflation (like that it is a positive feedback loop - once you have it, it reinforces itself, and increases, repeatedly), but maybe this is better:
Consider: The Federal Reserve - that lends to the largest banks, that sets the rates by which every loan in the US is calculated, that controls the very supply of money in the US, that has
Re: (Score:2)
Over the centuries stock markets have increased too, and a LOT more than gold.
Re: (Score:2)
It's different. I was talking about gold, not gold futures. With stock markets the average of the market increases, but a LOT of individual companies fail.
That said, I own (indirectly) some stocks. I don't own any gold except my wedding ring. I'm not saying you should invest in gold. Merely that it has a strong track record dating back to before Croesus.
Re: (Score:2)
I said gold, not gold futures. I'm not sure why you're thinking about futures.
Gold has a similar record to residential real estate. If you buy it when it's hot you'll lose your shirt. If you buy it at just the right time you might get rich. On average, you make pretty close to zero.
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
Perhaps the mistake you made is thinking stocks are safer. That's on you and only on you.
If you take a long term view then stocks have a very good chance of bouncing back.
Cryptocoins? Not so much.
Re: (Score:2)
I am loosing my life savings in this stock market.... invested heavily into stocks ... I am essentially ruined at this point, having lost hundreds of thousands.
Never gamble with what you cannot afford to lose.
In the long term the stock market as a whole trends upwards, but in the short term (and with individual stocks) it is gambling.
Re: (Score:2)
1) Your life savings are not gone yet - until and unless you cash out of your stocks. Unless you have absolutely no other choice, leave them be. Rule #1 should be - don't panic. Your stocks are pieces of companies - are the companies suddenly 60% less valuable? Of course not. You are out 100s of thousands - on paper. Don't make the losses permanent. It's tough to do, but hang in there.
2) AS you said, stocks are 50%, 60% down from where you, previously, thought they were a good investment. Now they
Calling it now - crypto recession (Score:1, Insightful)
Within the next few weeks to months, when the inevitable recession hits, the Biden administration will blame Crypto for the economic downturn.
Articles like this are setting up the public to believe it was something other than poor monetary policy which caused the recession. Now that the pandemic is over, TPB need another scapegoat.
Re: (Score:2, Insightful)
The administration does not set monetary policy. Seems to me like the Fed is a perfect scapegoat.
The only real debate is whether or not there was a better option, and frankly, people like you simply aren't qualified to make that determination. If you believe you are, my hope is that you some day become the head of a major bank, or are appointed to the Fed Board of Governors.
Re:Calling it now - crypto recession (Score:5, Insightful)
You think average Joe Schmoes get appointed to the fed or hired to top jobs by big banks? Sorry, but they only hire friends of the family, or folks they went to an Ivy League school with. Take the average Joe Schmoe off the street and give him control of the Fed, he will do a better job. Because he's not making bank off of easily correctible market failures. Anyone who thinks the heads of major banks or the Fed are working in the best interest of the public or the economy at large, is simply delusional. They work those jobs to enrich themselves and maintain control over all aspects of life in first world countries. They profit from bull markets even more than they profit from bear markets. When everyone else is losing their shirt, these are the guys who are still winning.
Re: (Score:2)
Mod parent up. With sadness.
Re: (Score:1)
I agree you need someone divested from the upper echelon but must be someone better than the average American.
Re: (Score:2, Insightful)
Being contemptuous of your average fellow citizens is a terrible look. Most folks who look down on others never hold themselves to the same standards they use to judge others. They are enormous hypocrites. People with real talent, who feel secure in their own self worth, rarely look down on others and instead, attribute their success to luck or other factors.
Re: (Score:2)
Being contemptuous of your average fellow citizens is a terrible look.
Neither is being reckless with something that affects so many as the Federal Reserve.
One need not contempt for your average fellow citizen to know that the average fellow citizen has the financial maturity of a toddler.
People with real talent, who feel secure in their own self worth, rarely look down on others and instead, attribute their success to luck or other factors.
And there's your fucking problem.
That's not your average fellow citizen.
Re: (Score:3)
Are you serious? I did not say that sort of person was average. I said, if you look down on the average citizen, chances are you yourself are a fucking sub par human being. Because the truly excellent people don't do that shit.
Re: (Score:2)
I said, if you look down on the average citizen, chances are you yourself are a fucking sub par human being.
Maybe. But you're probably still better at handling finances than they are.
Because the truly excellent people don't do that shit.
Oh, give me a fucking brake.
Here, I'll try.
If you look down on those who are so far above you as to think you an idiot, changes are they're right. You're a fucking idiot.
Now I don't actually believe that, but it holds about as much merit as your dumb fucking assertion.
Einstein was Einstein. His excellence was not related to his personal skills.
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
Einstein was not a dick to people dumber than himself. He was, in fact, a socialist who believed we are all equal. So thank you for using him as your example!
Re: (Score:2)
Einstein was not a dick to people dumber than himself. He was, in fact, a socialist who believed we are all equal. So thank you for using him as your example!
You entirely missed the point.
Einstein's brilliance had nothing to do with his personal character, and even if he had been an ardent Robber Baron of old, he'd still be Einstein, and he'd still be brilliant. Your claim that great people are nice people is a bullshit stereotype as eye-rolling as "Black people are violent".
Yes and no (Score:2, Insightful)
If you want to stop corruption, ban all public servants above dog catcher from owning stocks or any other investments. Given them a guaranteed pension for life at 3x the median income of their area. If they don't like that, tell them to stay in the private sector.
Also, don't let people donate to campaigns they can't vote in. This means onl
Re: (Score:2)
Her name is Kyrsten Sinema, by the way. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]
And be aware, she LIES about her early childhood.
She comes from money. Yeah, her mom divorced her rich dad. But her claims about being without running water and electricity? Absolute gob smacking dishonesty there.
Most people who do come from money have low net worth on the books, until they inherit. That's not the point. The point is the access to financing and donations that comes with being well-connected.
Sinema made her career the
Re: (Score:2)
Take the average Joe Schmoe off the street and give him control of the Fed, he will do a better job.
Eyeroll.
This is the central bank of the US.
33% of small businesses survive to be 10 years old. So no, I'm sorry.
Joe Schmoe will not do a better job.
Re: (Score:2)
Oh my god. You think that the US is actually a meritocracy, don't you?
Re: (Score:2)
Oh my god. You think that the US is actually a meritocracy, don't you?
A pure one? Of course not. Strawman, much?
Are you arguing that merit has no weight in the statistics?
Are you arguing that the average joe schmoe has the technical competency and education to run a financial organization, when they can't even run their own fucking finances?
The median American has 90k in debt, and a net worth that consists entirely of their non-self-operated retirement investment program.
You may have been on a soapbox about non-merit based appointments in the upper echelons of power, an
Re: (Score:2)
The higher up you go in today's society, the more family connections matter, and the less talent matters. although I'm really only middle class in income, I come from fairly old money, on both sides. I know this for an absolute fact.
Jamie Dimon's knowledge of finance is primarily geared towards screwing others. He knows how the game is rigged. He doesn't know how to make an egalitarian system that benefits the majority of Americans. And even if he did, that knowledge would be useless, because he would never
It won't be a recession (Score:5, Interesting)
Without that cash those bills and subsidies will dry up and mining will die off (good riddance) and simple, common sense regulations will deal a death blow to crypto.
Crypto is in a precarious position. They need too much cash for all the bribes needed to keep the law off their trails so they can keep profiting from ransomware, money laundering and ponzi schemes. But they're about to lose that cash right when they need it most.
Re: (Score:1)
Time to put bitcoin mines on the moon!
Re: (Score:2)
Mod parent down. Negative insight? But you're usually more insightful than that.
So how to clarify my critique? Or was it just an emotional reaction?
I think what's bugging me is the technical conflation aspect? Yes, I admit I still haven't made up my mind on fiat currencies in general, but cryptocurrencies were clearly a terrible idea from the git go. And yet there is no technical or mathematical reason that they had to be a terrible idea that wasted lots of electricity, too. (Leading into the need to bribe
There kind of is (Score:2)
You need to bribe regulators not just for cheap electricity but to prevent regulation. Crypto can't survive regulation. A wel
Re: (Score:2)
General concurrence, though I'm basically neutral on fiat currencies. We need some mechanism for the accounting and I accept that the accounting needs to be done.
As regards the "proof of stake" aspect, I see that as part of it, but mostly Bitcoin created the perception that there could be a gold rush there. If it was an efficient but random thing, then the first gamblers wouldn't have imagined that there was any way to cheat the house. Ergo, all your comments about manipulation.
Well, one more disagreement.
Re: (Score:1)
when the inevitable recession hits, the Biden administration will continue to blame everything else for the economic downturn.
FTFY, in case you haven't been paying attention for the last 6-12 months.
Re: (Score:2)
Yep. He could have avoided it entirely by increasing the national debt by Trumpian amounts.
Re: (Score:2)
Thank you for pointing out how badly Trump sucked in a way that is absolutely factual and objective.
Re: (Score:2)
Yep. He could have avoided it entirely by increasing the national debt by Trumpian amounts.
National debt was $8 trillion when Obama took office. He left it at $19 trillion. When all it took was one president to more than double a number like that, I don't know why anyone gives a shit about the national debt anymore.
And according to Biden, the main squeeze on America right now, has everything to do with a man blamed Putin. Not shutting down pipelines, or choking out oil providers. Or ramrodding Green policies down the country's corporate windpipe.
Trumpian? I suppose an alternate minimal bailo
Re: (Score:2)
National debt was $8 trillion when Obama took office. He left it at $19 trillion. When all it took was one president to more than double a number like that, I don't know why anyone gives a shit about the national debt anymore.
Debt, schmebt.
The number that really counts is deficit, not debt. Obama inherited a massive deficit so debt was bound to increase. OTOH he reduced deficit 1 trillion during his stay at the Whitehouse.
https://www.google.com/search?... [google.com]
Trump inherited Obama's budget+deficit and promptly increased it to make everybody think the good times were back.
https://www.google.com/search?... [google.com]
This is done deliberately and even has a name: "The Two Santa Claus Theory"
https://www.milwaukeeindepende... [milwaukeeindependent.com]
https://www.google.com/s [google.com]
Re: (Score:2)
Trump inherited Obama's budget+deficit and promptly increased it to make everybody think the good times were back.
Well, I'm sure glad the cost of bad times was eliminating the deficit. We'll have that national debt whittled down to nothing in no time. Might only cost a country or two in the end. No biggie I guess...well unless it happens to be your country.
With debt like that, the deficit is basically worthless too.
Re: (Score:2)
USD is the effetive reserve currency for much of the world. In order for this to work, the various governments around the world have to keep a store of USD around. Since they collectively represent more than a billion people, this ends up being quite a lot of USD. To get that USD, they have to provide the US with goods and accept USD in return, preferably in the form of US government bonds.
Since the world is getting richer in general, the need for reserve currency is increasing, and the only way for that to
Re: (Score:2)
Since interest payments on US government debt is practically zero, this adds up to Americans getting stuff for nothing.
No, actually it perpetuates the delusion that debt is cheap, "free", and never really needs to be repaid. And then we stand bewildered as to why the kids are a trillion dollars in college debt, and asking/demanding for it to be cheapened or even "free". Gee Dad, wonder where Junior learned that trick.
Also, take this as a good or bad thing; It also de-weaponizes the deficit or national debt, since everyone in American politics now views debt as "free shit" instead of something we should work on or even a
Re: (Score:2)
No, actually it perpetuates the delusion that debt is cheap, "free", and never really needs to be repaid
Every dollar bill and treasury bond that is in circulation is a debt owed by the US government. If it was repaid in its entirety, there would be no more dollars.
Private debt needs to be repaid. Government debt in the currency of that government cannot be. If people take the wrong lessons about their own economy from that, then we need to educate them better, but misrepresenting fundamental facts about how the economy works does not help the cause.
Re: (Score:2)
No, actually it perpetuates the delusion that debt is cheap, "free", and never really needs to be repaid
Every dollar bill and treasury bond that is in circulation is a debt owed by the US government. If it was repaid in its entirety, there would be no more dollars.
No more? Wild. Wonder what all these QE brand printing presses do, all day, every day.
Private debt needs to be repaid.
Yes, and that concept is not exactly welcomed with open arms when taxpayers are forced to support Too Big To Fail bailouts while allowing Greed N. Corruption to make dozens of excuses as to why bankruptcy "doesn't count" for them. Only you.
Privatizing profits while socializing losses, isn't some financial theory or rumor. It's such the norm that it's now the financial end-game for elitists. Lather, rinse, and repeat t
Re: (Score:3)
FWIW, I think that cryptocurrencies were a strong amplifier to the economic downturn. Also to the prior economic rise.
The initial cause was, in my opinion, COVID. I'm not sure there was a good way to handle it, but the US didn't pick one even close to optimum. And you aren't going to get people to agree on what a real optimum would have been, because different people value things differently. (E.g., I happen to value remaining clear of COVID quite strongly. Others value something else...and not a consi
Re: (Score:2)
The initial cause was, in my opinion, COVID.
COVID wasn't as bad as the housing bubble that Obama inherited.
We are in it (Score:1)
Within the next few weeks to months, when the inevitable recession hits
We are smack in the middle of the recession right now, by pretty much any metric you care to examine.
In the next few weeks, months, and years it will just become growingly severe.
Re: (Score:2)
Recessions are characterized by a fall in industrial output and trade. The usual metric is two successive quarters with negative GDP growth.
US trade is up, industrial output is up, and GDP is up.
Re: (Score:2)
GDP is down [bea.gov]. That was Q1 in that chart and we are almost done with Q2.
Yes. Single down quarters are not abnormal. Generally, it isn't called a recession until you have 2 successive quarters.
The U.S. has been in a massive trade deficit for some time.
Not relevant.
Manufacturing is up if you just look at raw numbers but down for years relative to GDP [macrotrends.net].
You would define a recession as an economy continuing its many-decades-long-trend of having a larger and larger share of its money-producing capacity from services rather than physical goods?
Well, I think we've found our problem. You have invented your own definition for recession, along with its own qualifications.
We are in a recession, and realistically have been at least since the start of the year.
You can say that until you're blue in the face, but it becom
Re: (Score:2)
Since you didn't read what I wrote, I didn't Bothe reading the rest of your response.
Na. You're outclassed here, you know it, and so you're going for an easy jab rather than engaging in an argument you know you'll lose.
Good job churching it up, though. Never seen that before </sarcasm>
It's not a single down quarter. My link shows Q1 being negative, and obviously the current quarter just ending is negative.
No, that's not obvious. Stock market isn't GDP.
There are no numbers for Q2. To put it frankly, The Fat Lady Hath Not Sung.
We are in a recession you blind tool.
Calling names? More evidence that you're trying to push your narrative that you know isn't fact-based by any alternative you can think of, which in this case is insults. If one were
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
Of course, we are hoping that this time, large corporations haven't been using crypto as their actual stores of securitized assets, but if they have, then crypto will have been the cause.
So no, it's not like that. It's not like that at fucking all.
It's more like being concerned that every single penny in Wall Street
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
Not at all, you are ignoring the fact that the GFC was due to highly convoluted securities built on top of high risk debt and sold as highly safe debt.
How could I possibly be ignoring that. That's literally my point.
The collapse in value of the derivatives was relatively small.
Is the value of the foundation of your home the value of the poured cement, or is it the value of the entire home?
If Crypto was embedded in the same way you would have a valid comparison, it isn't though.
It's like you didn't even read what was written. I'll quote.
Of course, we are hoping that this time, large corporations haven't been using crypto as their actual stores of securitized assets, but if they have, then crypto will have been the cause.
You don't know how embedded crypto is. Nor do I. Nor does anyone. But we're sure as fuck going to find out. But the overall point is this: You cannot take the dollar amount of something used as a security and
Re: (Score:2)
This wasn't an analysis of the fallout of 2008, this was an analysis of the cause, particularly the collapse in value of certain derivatives, and the cross-leveraging the financial industry had that made them literally all dependent on them.
Re: (Score:2)
I suspect you're correct, but we'll see.
The point is, unless you know that, you cannot take the dollar amount of the crypto market cap, compare it to the dollar cap of all traded securities, and wave your hands and pretend that means something. Because it does not. The role the securitized asset plays matters, not its dollar value.
Re: (Score:2)
And how exactly is this more idiotic than promoting a man - with no military experience whatsoever - to 4 star admiral [bbc.com] because he claims to be a woman?
And yet the current administration did exactly that. At times I feel as if a secret meeting between Trump and Biden occurred in which Trump said that he'd gotten America to accept the stupidest policies as normal, and Joe Biden piped up, "Hold my beer..."
It's not a matter of public policy making sense anymore. It's a matter of the political elites sho
Everybody Gangsta . . . (Score:2)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?... [youtube.com]
Maybe it's time for a sequel, except starring Harry and Lloyd (if not Beavis and Butthead).
Failed to meet margin calls? (Score:2)
In case anyone wonders why this matters (Score:5, Insightful)
That's gonna trigger more sell offs in a cascade. I'd say "get out while you still can" but if you've got money in one of the exchanges you can't. They've all locked you out. And Tether locks anyone out of their money unless you either do $100k trades at a time or go through the exchanges (pretty obvious what they're doing there, protecting large holders and all).
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
On the off chance that you can get your money out, do it now. Or get ready to join the "fool" in "Greater Fool" theory.
Re: (Score:2)
Never mind the fact that, as mentioned, tether, which is the backbone of the crypto industry, is explicitly set up so that large holders can bail and leave the smaller ones holding the bag when the time comes.
I thought they were all set up that way, simply because in any crisis situation, transaction fees are going though the roof. Although, even the large tether holders still need buyers to get out. It looks like the supply of fools for this specific stupidity may slowly be running out.
Re: (Score:2)
they're sitting on a fuckton of bitcoin and they're gonna have to sell it to pay the loan, which is going to tank the market, probably below $20k.
Might end up being too late for that last part. At today's trend, it'll already be below $20k tonight.
I don't think so (Score:5, Informative)
Hilarious the big 3 exchanges are so huge that they're effectively doing the job of a federal reserve by manipulating the price to prevent a total crash. Trouble is they're only doing that for their own profit, and it's very likely they'll rug pull and cash out soon, leaving everyone else screwed. I mean, imagine if you were running the federal reserve for profit. The temptation to cash out would be huge.
Re: (Score:2)
I'd love to see it (Score:2)
And I swear to God, if we're ever plunged into a recession because of pictures of distressed primates....
Re: (Score:2)
I think that effort is in vain, BTC is bouncing around $20k as we type, would be amazing if it holds above for even a few more hours, will take a lot of funds to keep it above.
It will probably take more funds than anybody of those trying can afford, i.e. even if the manage to delay the crash, they are just setting up an even worse crash just a bit later. Unlike real banks, nobody in the crapcoin fantasy world has even remotely adequate reserves.
Will be interesting to see how low it crashes though. I have plans to buy one BTC when they are at $1, just so I can print it out and put it up on the wall as a monument to stupidity.
Re: (Score:2)
Well, we will see. It is very close to $20k now and there is tons if imagined value being burned to keep it up, obviously. There probably is being burned more than the actors can actually afford, so the crash is assured, even if a bit later. Anybody with two working brain cells that can get out will be getting out right now.
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
Re:In case anyone wonders why this matters (Score:5, Insightful)
Re: (Score:2)
Indeed. It is also part of a "Big Lie" were they claim to actually have reserves in order to draw in more fools. Of course, reserves in the very thing you are protecting are not reserves.
It's actually very fortunate (Score:2)
This is why crypto needs to be shut down now. Because if it's allowed to continue then eventually it's going to bleed into the real financial markets forming a parallel banking system and stock market completely without regulation or safety measures.
If that's allowed to happen then when
Re: (Score:2)
If you got BC in your own vallet, you probably cannot sell either. Transaction fees will be going though the roof and transaction speeds will be abysmally slow. Friend of mine tried to get out a while ago and it took him weeks to actually sell. The whole system behind this "currency" is completely dysfunctional and cannot handle any real transaction load.
Not the only one getting a call from Marge (Score:3, Interesting)
Over on Reddit, I've seen updates that it seems like half a dozen other hedge funds have shut down and/ore been liquidated lately.
In early June, a Trump era executive order went back into effect that cut off Wall Street from using assets related to many Chinese firms as collateral for margin calls. Those were military-adjacent firms. The next big market is Chinese real estate which is in slow motion collapse as we speak.
As the kids say, DYOR and NFA, but now is a time to be looking at leap puts on big Wall Street firms and TBTF banks, not holding onto broad index funds and thinking recovery is around the corner.
Marge has a lot of names to cross off on her list and is only getting started.
Re: (Score:3)
Everybody has the same idea about puts so they're too expensive. VIX never really went back down after the pandemic. You might even say VIX is at a permanently high plateau (ha-ha only serious). Puts are great if you've already got them, and I could kick myself for not having done collars. That ship ha sailed though. Probably better to get in cash. If you don't already have I-bonds, get them. The new rate is over 8% and if anything happens to US government bonds, we've got bigger problems. Unfortuna
Re: (Score:1)
I Bonds are up to 9.62% interest now: https://www.treasurydirect.gov... [treasurydirect.gov]
Re: (Score:2)
As the kids say, DYOR and NFA, but now is a time to be looking at leap puts on big Wall Street firms and TBTF banks, not holding onto broad index funds and thinking recovery is around the corner.
Well, puts can be expensive. I wonder if there's a stock I could buy instead - something with a negative beta, so it could be used to hedge against a market crash? Ideally, also over-shorted and under-valued.
Re: (Score:2)
I wonder if there's a stock I could buy instead - something with a negative beta, so it could be used to hedge against a market crash? Ideally, also over-shorted and under-valued.
GameStop! We'll send GME to the Moon!
Crypto--the great QE absorber (Score:5, Interesting)
I think I've said this here before, but I had been thinking all along that crypto was going to end up as a kind of QE absorber. All that money the Fed "printed" went in to no-name tech stocks too. If you look at stuff like $MGNI and $MARA they have very similar looking charts. Those were touted based on fundamentals during the upswing, and I noted the correlation even then. I told people, even if the long-term business plans are valid that's not what was driving those stocks. It was QE all along, and now that it's unwinding it works the other way. What's scary is that bigger stuff like $TSLA had a similar look too and while the no-names are starting to get back to pre-pandemic base lines, $TSLA is still rather lofty.
I don't think it's all over until $TSLA's chart looks like all the no-name tech companies, and Michael Saylor ($MSTR) gets *his* BTC margin call. He keeps saying it ain't coming; but they all say that.
So no, no hyperinflation from QE because Crypto and no-name tech companies are going to extinguish it.
Re: (Score:2)
What do you suppose happens when someone buys bitcoin? The exchange burns the hundred dollar bills while the owners dance naked around the fire?
Crypto doesn't absorb money. It does destroy value through mining, which means you have the same amount of money representing decreased value.
Re: (Score:2)
I love the jargon. The financial industry loves the jargon too, because it confuses people.
The answer to your question is, whoever you bought the bitcoin from has the 100k.
Accountants have this thing called "the accounting equation." It's basically conservation of energy for money. You've made the same error high school physics students make of defining your system as "me and the bank" and completely forgotten that in order to get that bitcoin you gave your $100k to some shady crypto guy on the Internet.
Hey
Re: (Score:2)
Shady crypto guy probably spends it pretty quickly. Fast cars, faster women and lots of drugs. Given what's been going on, the exchanges clearly don't keep much of it around. Miners will spend the bulk of it on electricity and hardware. The beneficiaries of all that will spend it on groceries, rent, etc, and the cycle repeats.
I expect that crypto "investment" probably increases the velocity of money a bit, for that reason. The money people (and companies, VCs, etc.) use to buy crypto would otherwise have go
I wish (Score:2)
I don't mind I have invested my money in (Score:1)
I Bought Myself A Politician - MonaLisa Twins (Score:2)
You might like this video then: :-)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?... [youtube.com]
Looking on the bright side (Score:3)
Maybe finally GPUs become affordable again.