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The Almighty Buck United States

Fed Official Says There's 'a Lot More Work To Do' To Bring Down Inflation (cnbc.com) 190

Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said Tuesday she expects more interest rate increases ahead, with higher rates to prevail for a while until inflation is subdued. From a report: "I am committed to taking further actions to bring inflation back down to our goal," the central bank official said in remarks prepared for a speech in Florida. "In recent months, we've seen a decline in some measures of inflation but we have a lot more work to do, so I expect the [Federal Open Market Committee] will continue raising interest rates to tighten monetary policy." The FOMC has increased the Fed's benchmark borrowing rate seven times since March 2022, for a total of 4.25 percentage points.

Last week, minutes from the committee's December meeting indicated that most members were on board with additional hikes in 2023, likely taking the fed funds rate slightly above 5%. Reflecting the consensus at that meeting, Bowman said she sees elevated rates holding until there are "compelling signs that inflation and has peaked and for more consistent indications that inflation is on a downward path" before easing up on restrictive monetary policy. "I expect that once we achieve a sufficiently restrictive federal funds rate, it will need to remain at that level for some time in order to restore price stability, which will in turn help to create conditions that support a sustainably strong labor market," she said.

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Fed Official Says There's 'a Lot More Work To Do' To Bring Down Inflation

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  • by Somervillain ( 4719341 ) on Tuesday January 10, 2023 @01:10PM (#63196330)
    How much of our current inflation crisis is caused by higher energy prices due to the Ukrainian conflict?
    • Probably Not Much (Score:5, Informative)

      by JBMcB ( 73720 ) on Tuesday January 10, 2023 @01:26PM (#63196432)

      The prices of crude oil and natural gas were trending higher than pre-pandemic levels before Russia invaded Ukraine. Natural gas, in particular, was twice as much in the fall and winter of 2021/2022.

      Meanwhile, the federal reserve doubled the money supply during the pandemic, so that the federal government can hand that money directly out to consumers.

      Which is more inflationary?

    • I asked the same thing when gas prices spiked in 2003 when we invaded Iraq and Afghanistan .

    • by CrimsonAvenger ( 580665 ) on Tuesday January 10, 2023 @02:58PM (#63196878)

      How much of our current inflation crisis is caused by higher energy prices due to the Ukrainian conflict?

      Not as much as was caused by the President creating $2.2T last year.

      Never, ever forget that inflation is all about increasing the money supply without increasing the supply of things that you can buy with money. And increasing the money supply by 11% just because you want to spend that much is a textbook case of inflation.

      • Exactly this post.

        The entire planet basically 'printed money' in order to try and put a band aid on covid.
        Now we need to fix that problem. A lot of people got rich from this and now, a lot of middle class and below, who thought they "survived covid ok actually?!" are about to get utterly slammed.

        The rich will get richer though, regardless.

    • That's a good question and you should ask the guy who started the war. I think his name starts with a p.

      As for the answer as somebody else pointed out not all that much. Joe Biden rather cleverly released a ton of oil from the national reserves at just the right time to tank the price when Russia needed it the most. The result is Biden broke Russia's back and now they're scrambling to get cash to fund their War and selling oil on the Black market at cheap prices.

      That rather clever bit of business o
    • Prices always go up much more quickly than they go down. So even if Putin pulls out voluntarily and admits wrongdoing and starts shipping gas and oil at normal prices, it may take years for energy prices to stabilize. The market is disrupted.

    • Almost none of it. Our inflation mostly set in before the invasion. This is the inevitable result of COVID disruptions and the business cycle. Inflation rates have fallen since the war started.

  • by Tablizer ( 95088 ) on Tuesday January 10, 2023 @01:11PM (#63196332) Journal

    China is having a nasty Covid flare-up that's disrupting the supply chain again. Since a very large proportion of US consumer goods are made in China, US stores will end up raising prices even more.

    Thus, practice blaming your favorite political foes so all your blame memes are lined up and ready to fire off into the Webtubes when it happens...

  • An audit of the fed can't happen soon enough.
  • I was paying $3.99 for a dozen jumbos a few months back. Now they are $6.29. Organic is even higher.

    • by RJFerret ( 1279530 ) on Tuesday January 10, 2023 @01:24PM (#63196420)

      Egg prices are more due to the bird flu issues, less general inflation.
      (Some regions don't even have sufficient eggs for the market.)

      • Comment removed based on user account deletion
    • by Bodhammer ( 559311 ) on Tuesday January 10, 2023 @01:25PM (#63196430)
      Egg Prices are up due the Avian Flu: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianf... [cdc.gov]
    • Holy... and I thought ours are insane for charging 35 cents an egg.

  • by Bodhammer ( 559311 ) on Tuesday January 10, 2023 @01:30PM (#63196454)
    Funny money = funny prices.

    https://news.stanford.edu/2022... [stanford.edu]
  • They are doubling down on ruining people's lives because of their flawed logic. It seems like inflation is getting even worse every time they increase interest rates. Increasing interest rates' primary effect is to eliminate jobs, which in a best case moves them overseas (hey, at least some Chinese kid will have a job.) In the worst case it fucks up quality of life for everyone permanently and unrecoverably. It's better that everyone have jobs than for prices to be a bit lower. They're jumping from the fryi

    • Interest rates lag. Inflation will run hot for months after interest rates have stopped increasing. The fed is going to slow to quarter point increases and continue to run off their balance sheets to sop up all that money they injected. If the fed cuts rates prematurely, inflation will come back just like it did in the 70's. And really rates at 4-5 is not high. Mortgages are settling back around 6.5%. For those old enough, mortgages in the early 80's were 13+%. I know, I had one. Pray it doesn't get as bad
      • Real GDP was growing in the 70s while the Fed seesaw'ed. Volcker came into a nicely functioning economy which despite high inflation had kept productivity high, the supply shock ending gave him the room to turn inflation around without driving the economy into a full blown depression ... that option earlier had likely simply not been on the table, nor is it now.

        The debt overhang for the lower and middle classes now is nothing like the 70s and 80s, the consumer class can't survive on the interest rates from

        • The debt overhang for the lower and middle classes now is nothing like the 70s and 80s, the consumer class can't survive on the interest rates from then.

          You're just showing the the economy is more dependent on interest rates. And they wont need to be raised to 70's & 80's level this time to have the same effect they did back then.

    • They are doubling down on ruining people's lives because of their flawed logic. It seems like inflation is getting even worse every time they increase interest rates.

      Ruining whose lives? The investor class spent the pandemic going bonkers on bullshit tech stocks, crypto, NFT, ad nausea while buying up housing on the back of cheap $$$ while everyone else gets poorer?

      Increasing interest rates' primary effect is to eliminate jobs, which in a best case moves them overseas (hey, at least some Chinese kid will have a job.) In the worst case it fucks up quality of life for everyone permanently and unrecoverably.

      It reduces buying power which reduces prices as we are seeing materialize with declining home prices.

      It's better that everyone have jobs than for prices to be a bit lower.

      Presently there are millions more positions remaining unfilled than people exist to fill them. Not everyone having a job means there can at least be a reasonable reserve labor market to balance interests. E

      • The "investor class" as you label it... well, not too wrongly, well, that class has a huge problem: Nothing worthwhile to invest in. Seriously, I'm sitting on a pile of money here (actually, on a lot of real estate) that isn't gaining any interest (actually, and quite concerningly, it costs me more money than it gets me) and I'm quite desperately looking for something to throw my money at that could net some revenue. Problem: There ain't nothing.

        An economy needs two things to function. On one side, a produc

    • Increasing interest rates' primary effect is to eliminate jobs,

      I believe the intention is to decrease (excessive) demand in the economy as whole, unemployment is one way to effectively measure that.

  • Inflation was last reported to be at ~2%. The job market remains strong.

    Which country's statistics are people at the Fed looking at? It sure seems that the Fed chairman won't be satisfied until he causes a recession. Or worse.

    • Inflation was last reported to be at ~2%. The job market remains strong.

      Which country's statistics are people at the Fed looking at? It sure seems that the Fed chairman won't be satisfied until he causes a recession. Or worse.

      Oh, come on... the standardly reported annual CPI metric from December 13th indicated something like 7.1%. Core inflation was 6%. We'll get a new number in a few days.

      This is a messy econometrics problem and the above metrics aren't great, so I'm interested to hear out claims that it's lower, but "inflation was last reported to be at ~2%" is too vague to evaluated. Which number? When was it measured? What goods? Where are you hearing 2%?

      Even if it was measured under 0.17% over a month's span (e.g could be a

      • Inflation was last reported to be at ~2%. The job market remains strong.

        Which country's statistics are people at the Fed looking at? It sure seems that the Fed chairman won't be satisfied until he causes a recession. Or worse. Oh, come on... the standardly reported annual CPI metric from December 13th indicated something like 7.1%. Core inflation was 6%. We'll get a new number in a few days. This is a messy econometrics problem and the above metrics aren't great, so I'm interested to hear out claims that

        • The last 5 CPI month-to-month increases were 0, .1, .4, .4, .1. That's a 5-month average of 2%

          I just realized I said this wrong. I meant 5-month average extrapolated to an annual 2% ( 0 + .1 + .4 + .4 + .1) * (12/5). Technically 2.4%, although I expect the print coming out on Thursday to be somewhere around 0.

    • Source? This https://www.usinflationcalcula... [usinflatio...ulator.com] says 7.1 (Latest available Nov 22)
  • ...would be to
    - explain to the president that simply 'printing more money' doesn't actually solve anything.
    - cure congress of its penchant for 'spend now, borrow later, cut nothing'
    - cure the American public of its expectation that yes they can have everything they want; we are the wealthiest state this planet has ever known, with the poorest people living in incomprehensible luxury and convenience even Kings would have envied even 50 years ago and yet we still can't afford everything we want and live - bot

  • If they pass just a few more $740 billion Inflation Reduction Acts I'm sure we'll finally get a wrangle on spending outstripping demand and see inflation plummet.

  • So all one fed has to do: hike the interests rates and keep them up, to make their political opponent look bad.
  • Inflation needs to go higher
  • Inflation is caused when demand outstrips supply. It is obvious that the problem is supply, not demand. The economy is otherwise in great shape as we have low unemployment and strong demand.

    The Fed however is damaging the economy because they think it is the only thing they can do to rein inflation.

    Ironically, increasing interest rates thwarts business from creating more supply. Supply has been impeded by tariffs. We allowed shipping containers to be used to build a border wall. We have not addressed a
    • by vyvepe ( 809573 )

      Inflation is caused when demand outstrips supply. It is obvious that the problem is supply, not demand.

      Well, supply of cheap money over the last few years is the main problem. They are trying to fix it.

  • How much of the 'inflation' crisis is caused by price-gouging corporations raking in record profits during a global pandemic? Why do they act like it's some mysterious force like the weather? It is grocery monoplies and oil corporations CHOOSING to increase prices and put the squeeze on consumers. If there were laws against price-gouging for food, housing and energy, we wouldn't have an inflation crisis.

The 11 is for people with the pride of a 10 and the pocketbook of an 8. -- R.B. Greenberg [referring to PDPs?]

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