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The Almighty Buck United States

Powell Warns Inflation 'Remains Too High' (ft.com) 148

Jay Powell has warned that inflation "remains too high," raising the prospect of further interest rate increases in the world's largest economy should price pressures persist. Financial Times: In a highly anticipated speech on Friday, the chair of the US Federal Reserve at times struck a hawkish tone, pointing to the central bank's readiness to maintain a "restrictive" policy to bring inflation down to its 2 per cent target. "Although inflation has moved down from its peak -- a welcome development -- it remains too high," Powell said at the Fed's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. "We are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate, and intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward our objective," he added.

But he tempered that message with a pledge to proceed "carefully" as the Fed navigates the final stages of its campaign to stamp out the worst inflation shock in decades. Headline US inflation, according to the consumer price index, was 3.2 per cent for July, well down from its peak of 9.1 per cent, but above June's rate of 3 per cent. Powell said the Fed was now focused not only on the risk of tightening monetary policy too little and allowing inflation to become entrenched but also of raising rates too high. "Doing too much could also do unnecessary harm to the economy," he said.

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Powell Warns Inflation 'Remains Too High'

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  • Translation (Score:4, Insightful)

    by whoever57 ( 658626 ) on Friday August 25, 2023 @01:05PM (#63796598) Journal

    The 99%-ers have got too much money.

    Powell has said in the past that people having saving to spend is a problem. I remain convinced his goal is to spur a recession.

    • by dmay34 ( 6770232 )

      I fully agree. Workers have too much power. We need layoffs fast.

      • Re:Translation (Score:5, Interesting)

        by sinkskinkshrieks ( 6952954 ) on Friday August 25, 2023 @01:31PM (#63796680)
        And make home ownership harder now, damnit! These middle classers are getting too upity thinking they are due financing security or the American Dream. We need everyone but the billionaires living paycheck-to-paycheck, preferably with the threats of layoffs, debt peonage, eviction, cash bail incarceration, statelessness, and/or deportation hanging over their heads constantly. Murica!
        • If they want to keep bidding up houses with borrowed money, that's their business. It'll end in blood and tears, but thats also their business.
        • And make home ownership harder now, damnit! These middle classers are getting too upity thinking they are due financing security or the American Dream.

          Things were going nuts back when interest rates were near zero. Housing costs and associated property taxes skyrocketing with no end in sight, corporations going on real-estate buying binges, commodity costs skyrocketing, crypto, NFTs, tech markets and related scams growing like fricking weeds.

          I personally like the higher interest rates and hope the trends continues for some time to come. Current rates have been on the low side in comparison to much of the 20th century with near zeroing of rates for prol

    • I mean, yes. (Score:3, Insightful)

      by HBI ( 10338492 )

      The truth always is that inflation is too much money chasing too few goods. Absent an increase in productivity - meaning creating said goods - the only way to tame inflation is to reduce the amount of money people have. A recession will do the job.

      It sucks, but this is why giving away free money does not work as a policy. Once merchants get the idea that keeping stock is bad and they have to consistently raise prices to avoid losing money on stock that cost them x yesterday and will cost x+1 today, it's

      • But that isn't even the case. Where do you have way too much demand? Who has all that money that wants goods that are not supplied?

        We're drowning in money on the supply side. We have investors here literally begging to find something worthwhile to invest in, alas there isn't anyone who could open up a promising business because, you guessed it, there is no market because there is no money on the demand side. Why do you think they park their money in real estate?

        This inflation is not driven by too much deman

    • The 99%-ers have got too much money.....

      The Federal Reserve Bank doesn't work for you. At least in my particular industry, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates. Companies with negative cash flow cannot borrow money to continue operations. They either go out of business, or get acquired by big players. The big players, having reduced competition raise prices. The Federal Reserve notices "oh gosh, prices are higher than before", blames workers, and raises interest rates. The cycle repeats itself with more mergers, less competition, and higher

      • Congress could be doing something about it but they are too busy displaying Hunter Biden's dick pics.

        The reality is that large corporations have gone on unchecked for far too long. We used to enforce antitrust laws but that seems to have fallen by the wayside.

        In the past this would have helped temper the Fed as they only really have one tool to deal with this issue. This is why you don't want the fed to solve your problem. Break up the large corporations that are causing high prices. In terms of the food

        • by haruchai ( 17472 )

          "we've really done nothing over the last 40 years to reign in corporate America and the piper is calling"
          Bernie Sanders, is that you?

          • The last company to be broken up by antitrust laws was Ma Bell which left us with ATT and several then baby bells who have since be reconsolidated. That was 1982.

            Do please explain how your comment actually relates to anything I've said, even better, feel free to provide info on anything that was done in the last 40 years to combat corporate greed running roughshod over the American people.

            This has nothing to do with Bernie Sanders and there is no malice towards business in general. We have seen many compan

      • Companies with negative cash flow cannot borrow money to continue operations.

        Sure they can - if they promise to make fancy solar panels out of curved glass, if they promise to make EV batteries, etc. then they can get federal loan guarantees to delay their inevitable bankruptcy, just ask Solyndra or A123 batteries...

    • His goal is the bring up unemployment. They essentially see employment as an easy lever to control inflation.

    • A recession is preferable to an inflationary spiral.
      • A recession is preferable to an inflationary spiral.

        Is it, though? Inflation is 3%. A recession could lead to a deflationary cycle (ask the Japanese how well that works out) or another round of rate cuts and stimulus -- exactly what got us into the past inflationary cycle.

    • Oh he doesnt want to but its likely anyways. Hes genuinely shooting for a soft landing. Which is basically like hitting a bulleseye. Which hes not confident in hitting because economists are blind in one eye and congress has tied one of their arms behind their back. Think you could do any better?
  • I call bullshit... (Score:5, Insightful)

    by MikeDataLink ( 536925 ) on Friday August 25, 2023 @01:10PM (#63796620) Homepage Journal

    All interest rates do is hurt the small guy. The person trying to buy a home. The small business guy trying to open his pizza shop. The big companies just raise prices and pass the cost on to.... you guessed it... the small guys (aka 99% of their customers).

    • Welcome to the K-shaped pandemic recovery and the profit-price spiral. Bloomberg TV says profits are amazing and the economy is great, so it must be totally true. Why would they lie and deny the poor are being evicted in droves and paying much more for food compared to 2018?
      • by edwdig ( 47888 )

        Both those things can be true at once.

        Businesses have been shifting toward selling less units but having a higher profit margin over the last few years. Sucks for the people at the bottom, good for those at the top.

    • "All interest rates do is..."

      Interest rates don't do things. Anyone who has money doesn't want to loan it for free. The easiest way to charge for borrowing money is charging interest. When there is more money available, competition causes rates to drop. When money is in short supply, they go up.

      Now the government does influence this by offering money to banks at set rates, but there is nothing stopping anyone from loaning money with no interest except their desire to not do bad business.

    • by RobinH ( 124750 )
      It does put a damper on home and passenger vehicle sales, certainly, but it puts a much, much bigger damper on corporate capital spending. That's because corporations are much more sophisticated in calculating the cost-benefit ratio of expenditures. If a business owner wants to expand their business, they typically have to take out a loan and the interest rate factors into the payback calculation. Large companies have target payback timelines, and higher interest rates push more marginal projects over th
    • by jacks smirking reven ( 909048 ) on Friday August 25, 2023 @03:31PM (#63797014)

      On the contrary I think the high interest rates have shown even further that we learned and done very much nothing to fix the systemic issues with the housing market and the economy since 2008.

      The 2009-2021 period of ZIRP has no precedent. Some folks want you to believe that is how the world should be all the time but at no point in entirety of central banking was there a period with such low rates for so long. Things like mortgages existed just fine with rates that were even higher than they are today. Anecdote but the house I grew up in was bought with a 8% rate which was standard for 1976 and my parents bought that house on 2 middle class incomes.

      The rates are not the issue, a lack of supply and building of homes is. Zoning, NIMBYISM, badly aligned tax structures and the worst misaligned incentive in the entire economy, the concept of homeownership as investment, savings which relies entirely on property prices increases, forever.

      • Building permits (Score:2, Interesting)

        by Anonymous Coward

        The rates are not the issue, a lack of supply and building of homes is. Zoning, NIMBYISM, badly aligned tax structures and the worst misaligned incentive in the entire economy, the concept of homeownership as investment, savings which relies entirely on property prices increases, forever.

        We just got a septic system installed. Took the contractor two or three days to dig the hole, trenches, install, and cover back up. Took the gov't 9 months for permits before that could even happen though.

        At this rate, we'll be dying of old age before our house is built and certified for occupancy.

        • Sounds like the government handling those permits had never seen a septic system before nor understood how they work. Geez...
  • by sinkskinkshrieks ( 6952954 ) on Friday August 25, 2023 @01:11PM (#63796624)
    60% of it is due to corporate action and profit-price spirals. Maybe instead of taxing the poor and middle, the Fed should target end-user, non-finance corporations selectively using their levers in OMOs and discount lending to make it more difficult to borrow than the pathways for average citizens.
  • by DesScorp ( 410532 ) on Friday August 25, 2023 @01:13PM (#63796628) Journal

    Powell Warns Inflation 'Remains Too High'

    File under "No Shit, Sherlock?"

    I'm beginning to wonder if these people have been to a grocery store in the past couple of years. Inflation is quickly eating away purchasing power.

    • Has Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank, been to a grocery store recently?

      No. No he hasn't. In my mind, it's questionable whether he even knows any part of the name, however approximately, of the person who buys his food.
      • His name is James.

        His name is always James. I can't be assed to learn a new name just because I hire someone new, I have important stuff to bother with.

    • It is difficult to get a billionaire to understand something, when his profiteering at the expense of his fellow citizen depends upon his not understanding it. Also, phfft, billionaires, rich ex Wall St federal regulators, and MSNBC reporters don't do their own shopping. - Upton Sinclair
    • Yeah, but he sure as all hell won't increase your purchasing power because you them may actually want to buy stuff you don't need for survival. And that's bad for the economy... somehow.

  • Inflation is too high (unless of course you owe money, in which case it is actually in your best interest). What is the Fed going to do about it, raise interest rates. This is a classic case of, 'if you have a hammer even problem looks like a nail'. They are cannot really do anything about the underlying issues, so they try to crush it down by making borrowing more expensive. It can work, of course, but the side effects can also be worse than the disease.
    • by jonadab ( 583620 ) on Friday August 25, 2023 @01:43PM (#63796718) Homepage Journal
      Historically, adjusting the FFR works as well as anything, to expand or contract the size of the money supply as needed.

      *All* methods of controlling inflation, boil down to controlling the size of the money supply in one way or another. The rest is details.
      • by dfghjk ( 711126 )

        Inflation is the growth of the money supply relative to the grown of production. Controlling it can involve manipulating the numerator OR denominator in that equation.

        Of course, the Fed's job IS "controlling the size of the money supply", so yeah, what you say is right regardless, but the Fed's job is to project economic growth and expand the money support to target an amount of inflation, which now appears to be an inflexible 2% regardless of what that target has been previously.

      • They don't, at all. Banks don't need to loan by getting new reserves, but the rate of new reserves allow the CB to set the price and influence inflation. And if you set the price of commodity, you can't control the quantity.

        Besides which, the quantity isn't the velocity in the first place, so they can't even pretend to have a time window. The mythical Phillips line (that doesn't even get to be a curve) certainly ain't it.

    • by dfghjk ( 711126 )

      If you owe money, inflation can be beneficial but only if your earning power compensates. Generally it doesn't. Your debt payments stay the same, your cost of living goes up and you can afford even less. Not a win.

      The Federal Reserve has more tools than just the interest rate, and there's no reason to believe 2% is an absolute target or that 3% is a problem that requires action.

      • You are thinking of private individuals. Most of the money in the country is owed by corporations and other similar entities. They just raise prices to offset inflation and love the reduced cost of previous borrowing.
    • by RobinH ( 124750 )
      Using interest rates to control inflation is literally macroeconomics 101. Inflation can be triggered by super-high commodity prices, like in the 70's, but it's typically caused by exuberant demand pushing the economy to near full employment and then demand going higher. That's where we are now. Unemployment is at around 2%, which is about as low as you can go, so there's no slack left in the system to increase output. As a result, prices rise, hence inflation. Higher interest rates make large purchase
      • Higher interest rates control genuine inflation that results from supply/demand or money supply factors, but I don't think it does much to control inflation that results from profiteering.

  • by TheMiddleRoad ( 1153113 ) on Friday August 25, 2023 @01:32PM (#63796682)

    I can deal with 3%, especially if it means the economy grows faster. 2% is an unnecessary target. 2-4% is a happy range. Maintain this rate for 3 months. Then bring it down a quarter. See how the rate goes. See how the market reacts.

    • Agreed. 3% is alright. I mean, it might not look like it from somebody who's wages have been flat for a few years... which is a lot of people... but any economic balance is an exercise in pissing off some folks and enriching others. Of course the long arm of history has demonstrated which groups generally benefit... but, hey... nothing's perfect.

      • Agreed. 3% is alright. I mean, it might not look like it from somebody who's wages have been flat for a few years... which is a lot of people.

        Wages are actually rising now, though, real wages, meaning they're rising faster than inflation.

  • by dfghjk ( 711126 )

    "Powell said the Fed was now focused not only on the risk of tightening monetary policy too little and allowing inflation to become entrenched but also of raising rates too high."

    In other words, literally the job. Is there ever a time to do one and not the other? Is it even possible?

    Don't recall hearing about "the risk of tightening monetary policy too little" with the last administration. 0% seemed like the right answer then, except to Trump who tried to get it "lowered". Same with Nixon.

    If lowering inte

  • by Baron_Yam ( 643147 ) on Friday August 25, 2023 @02:05PM (#63796778)

    Inflation is a regressive tax, it affects every dollar equally regardless of the wealth of the person holding it.

    Regressive taxes are generally bad for the poor, but when you have a billionaire class inflation starts to look like the only way to get them to pay even a portion of their share.

    • by dfghjk ( 711126 )

      You should really rethink this comment. Inflation destroys wealth, it affects people who have it.

      Inflation WITHOUT wage increases harms the poor, but that's more than just inflation.

      • I suppose there's some insulation from not having any wealth at all, so it's only regressive down to the somewhere just north of the poverty line.

        Regardless, I like inflation over tax collection because it's more difficult to escape with accountants and lawyers, and you don't have to file any paperwork.

        Also, it lets you annoy young people with stories about how cheap movies and public transit were when you were a kid.

        • by dryeo ( 100693 )

          Also the 20% mortgages making it so you could barely buy a home on one income, the savings accounts that paid 18% with no fees and how even big businesses had low profits.
          No homeless living in tent cities either as even on minimum wage, you could pay rent and eat.

    • Well, not necessarily.

      Considering that the average American today is already drowning in debt, 500% inflation looks like something most Americans could be looking forward to. Those 100k you owe may be what you earn in a day in 2-3 years.

    • Wages rise much lower than profits for multiple policy choices; if wages grew higher than inflation, that would be fine... for most. The issue is that with the CB coming up heads, they can speculate and inflate nonsense, tails, and they can "get ahead" of expected price rises with explicit and implicit market power, and hopefully for them, take advantage of a higher unemployment downturn.

      Except, (in the US) mortgages are fixed and supply issues keep improving, while workers are fighting back, so they can't

  • Your milage may vary (Score:5, Informative)

    by 93 Escort Wagon ( 326346 ) on Friday August 25, 2023 @02:07PM (#63796784)

    Low interest rates are great, but it's also important to have some longer-term perspective.

    People are complaining about these high interest rates, and they certainly are much higher than we've been used to for roughly the last decade. But (shifting to gramps mode) way back in the day, meaning ~1990, my wife and I bought our house with an 8.5% mortgage. Closer to 2000 we refinanced, and were able to drop our rate... all the way down to 6%!

    • My parents bought a house in 1980. To get it they had to assume the loan of the previous owner at 11.5%.

    • I bought a house in 2000 and paid 8.5% and it was pretty close to the going rate.

    • All you need to know is in this chart:

      https://tradingeconomics.com/u... [tradingeconomics.com].

      My parents had a mortgage in the 80s at 15%. Rates below 5% are a luxury of the last decade, and it might be past the end of my lifetime before we see them that low again.

    • Yes, but that's the problem: The refinancing you did back then won't work today. And that will break the camel's back.

      People got a mortgage running in the early 90s when they earned about as much as they had to to pay it off. What happened then was what has been happening ever since the 1980s: Wages didn't keep pace with living costs. We earn less and less every year, in purchasing power. And then the 2000s came and people couldn't pay their mortgages anymore, but they could refinance with the lower interes

    • Back in the day, wages still rose and ate part of the interest. But the prices got sticky, because how else are you going to fool the middle class than to make living property investment, and they got much further away in how many years people need to pay for a roof, which all adds up.

    • My wife and I bought our first house in 1984, and got an 11.5% adjustable-rate mortgage (fixed-rate was higher). We were warned not to go the ARM route, since everybody was still suffering PTSD from the 15-20% rates of a few years earlier, but it's never been back to those heights since then.
  • ... I wonder when we had low inflation? Maybe we could try to get that back.
    • by dfghjk ( 711126 )

      Inflation was historically low during the Obama presidency. Are you suggesting making Obama our permanent president? Somehow I'm guessing no.

  • #1 problem is energy pricing caused by disrupted oil and gas industry and pre-mature investments in expensive, unreliable, inefficient "green energy" projects

    Germany has gone from power house to s***house economy because of natural gas prices.
    The US economy can be similarly destroyed.
    • by RobinH ( 124750 ) on Friday August 25, 2023 @03:38PM (#63797038) Homepage
      Germany did some really dumb things: got rid of nuclear power and replaced it with foreign imported natural gas (from Russia no less) and thought they could make it up with solar and wind energy (in a country where the sun doesn't shine that much). They're in trouble. The US generally has green energy projects only where they're profitable, and you can't discount how much the shale revolution has changed the playing field. The US is no longer a net energy importer, but is pretty balanced in energy imports and exports. That means if energy prices go up, yes the imported energy becomes more expensive, but the exported energy becomes more profitable, so it's not the huge problem it was back in the 70's. The US is well positioned for the coming global turmoil.
  • by brickhouse98 ( 4677765 ) on Friday August 25, 2023 @03:18PM (#63796976)
    You really shouldn't be mad at the Fed here. Their mandate is 2% inflation each year and as low of an unemployment rate as they can get. They're using the tools they have to do that. The real problem is that Congress has absolutely zero desire to use THEIR power to do anything to help us. Fiscal policy only goes so far. Monetary policy is the other end and it's entirely on Congress to act so maybe we shouldn't elect such shitheels to it huh?
  • This whole problem would be fixed overnight if everyone would just move to an area with a lower cost-of-living than where they currently live. At this point, I'm so cynical that I can't decide whether I made that statement in sarcasm or if I truly believe that's the intended effect. Quick, everyone start fighting over menial topics of identity politics lest we simultaneously discover the people who are actually pulling the strings!
  • Boil them in oil (Score:4, Interesting)

    by Virtucon ( 127420 ) on Friday August 25, 2023 @04:03PM (#63797100)

    What Powell failed to say:

    "We created this disaster by printing trillions of dollars and then creating artificial demand and deflating the value of the currency by ballooning the money supply We went from just under $4T in the M1 money supply in 2019 to a high of almost $21T in 2022. [stlouisfed.org] Yup that was us printing and printing; well not printing, we just have a guy who enters a number on a computer terminal and *poof* instant money. There was no economic growth associated with that jump so all your savings and earnings deflated as well, we just didn't tell you. Now we have heavy inflation because we're stupid fucks and we really should be lined up against the wall and shot for the economic disaster we created but we're the elite and we'll continue to screw over the middle and lower-class people of the world as much as we want."

    • by PsychoSlashDot ( 207849 ) on Friday August 25, 2023 @06:40PM (#63797440)

      What Powell failed to say:

      "We created this disaster by printing trillions of dollars and then creating artificial demand and deflating the value of the currency by ballooning the money supply We went from just under $4T in the M1 money supply in 2019 to a high of almost $21T in 2022. [stlouisfed.org] Yup that was us printing and printing; well not printing, we just have a guy who enters a number on a computer terminal and *poof* instant money. There was no economic growth associated with that jump so all your savings and earnings deflated as well, we just didn't tell you. Now we have heavy inflation because we're stupid fucks and we really should be lined up against the wall and shot for the economic disaster we created but we're the elite and we'll continue to screw over the middle and lower-class people of the world as much as we want."

      That's overly simplified, and the fact that this is a global problem demonstrates that.

      In a very real way this is fallout from a couple years of supply-chain issues. Shortages in products and services drove up prices, which drive up prices which drive up prices which drive up prices.

      Sure, low borrowing costs and government incentives have amplified the issue, but they're not the only factors.

      • by khchung ( 462899 )

        That's overly simplified, and the fact that this is a global problem demonstrates that.

        No, it is not a "global" problem. It is mainly a US & Europe (+Japan & SK) problem.

        For example, China do not have high inflation problem, they have exactly the opposite problem, they are at risk of deflation. They have been lowering rates recently while the Feds is raising rates.

        That's what happens when you force the separation of the country with largest money supply and the one with the largest manufacturing capability. One side now have too much money (inflation), the other side now have too m

        • It is mainly a US & Europe (+Japan & SK) problem.

          Except it's not. Canada would like to have a word with you, where we've barely got it under control, maybe. Mexico... 4.7% and 5% the last two months. Australia? 7%. South Africa? 4.7% and 5.4% the last two months. Brazil? Down from last year's 8%, at 3.99% this month.

          What do you want? I pick some random countries scattered over the globe and find they're all experiencing high interest rates. You say it's mainly US, I show it's also Canada and Mexico, making it North America... a continent. Th

    • Where do you think the trillions to pay interest come from, and to whom it goes to? There's no difference. Promoting growth is a fiscal policy, and quantity isn't velocity.

  • Seriously? They are having a serious meeting there? I go there for vacations. Grand Teton National Park.
    Where’s their next meeting? Hawaii? The Bahamas?

  • Interest rates can reduce demand, but it does nothing to prevent actual supply shortages, which had been the major cause of inflation since Covid.

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