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The Almighty Buck United States

US Debt Interest Bill Rockets Past a Cool $1 Trillion a Year (bloomberg.com) 224

An anonymous reader writes: US Treasuries may face renewed selling pressure into the new year if one measure of the nation's swelling debt repayment bill is any guide. Estimated annualized interest payments on the US government debt pile climbed past $1 trillion at the end of last month, Bloomberg analysis shows. That projected amount has doubled in the past 19 months from the equivalent figure forecast around the time. The estimated interest expense is calculated using US Treasury data which state the government's monthly outstanding debt balances and the average interest it pays.

Of course, the gauge of estimated interest costs is different than what the Treasury actually paid. Interest costs in the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30 ultimately totaled $879.3 billion, up from $717.6 billion the previous year and about 14% of total outlays. But, looking forward, the rise in yields on long-term Treasuries in recent months suggests the government will continue to face an escalating interest bill.

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US Debt Interest Bill Rockets Past a Cool $1 Trillion a Year

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  • by etash ( 1907284 ) on Friday November 10, 2023 @11:04AM (#63995691)
    of said 1t per year.
  • finally at the end? (Score:5, Interesting)

    by RemindMeLater ( 7146661 ) on Friday November 10, 2023 @11:13AM (#63995725)
    You can find well-thought-out articles from the 1980s that articulate how the US is imminently going to be in a debt crisis. Well the can-kicking went on for decades. But our debt is now 130% of our GDP which is passed what is commonly considered the point of no return. And you can expect the interest costs to keep growing as debt has to be rolled over into a higher interest rate environment. So unless interest rates rapidly go down AND we avoid a major recession, the problem will become a positive feedback loop.

    The million dollar question of course is what happens next. Historically countries that print their own currency don't default, they will inflate. This will not be a pleasant process. Inflation might be tamed for now but it tends to come in waves. Unlike in the 70s, we can't jack up interest rates to 17% as our debt ratio back then was much smaller. Perilous times but it will likely take longer to play out than we think.
    • by skam240 ( 789197 )

      You can find well-thought-out articles from the 1980s that articulate how the US is imminently going to be in a debt crisis. Well the can-kicking went on for decades. But our debt is now 130% of our GDP which is passed what is commonly considered the point of no return.

      While I would completely agree that our debt level is worryingly high the interesting part is that Japan's debt to GDP ratio is well over twice what ours is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org] and I havent heard any rumblings about their economy collapsing due to debt. Given this I think it's safe to say we arent at any kind of "point of no return" yet as you stated but we dont really want to push things to anywhere close to that point anyways.

      Sadly ultra partisanship is the norm of the day in Washington righ

      • by Joce640k ( 829181 ) on Friday November 10, 2023 @12:26PM (#63995957) Homepage

        Sadly ultra partisanship is the norm of the day in Washington right now so I dont expect anything too meaningful to be done about this.

        Yep. The opposition party WANTS this so they can point fingers at the president and lie about how they'll be able to fix it.

        They should really be working together but that ain't ever going to happen.

        • by Shaitan ( 22585 )

          It's a drop in the bucket after what ruling party has spent, both during the Trump presidency and during the current administration, but they did at least try to recycle some of the unneeded spending by redirecting it to Israel rather than spending new funds outright.

      • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 ) on Friday November 10, 2023 @12:38PM (#63995995)

        Japan's economy hasn't grown appreciably in 30 years either. To an economy where a failure to grow by 3-5% a year is a hand wringing catastrophe, three decades of stagnation might be considered "collapse."

        Also, there were lots of speculation about Japan's economy collapsing. Then it didn't. Economists now talk about the four types of economy: advanced, develping, Japan and Argentina.

        • by skam240 ( 789197 )

          Eh, I still think Japan makes a strong enough case that we're not on the precipice of collapse though. Their economy isnt great but it's not bad either.

          • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 )

            Japan also pays zero or negative interest on its 10 year bonds. Their 2023 10 year bond rate is 0.41%, compared to the US rate of 3.74%, so even though their debt is twice as big, the US debt (currently) costs 5x more.

            100% debt to GDP ratio isn't necessarily a sign of imminent collapse, but you don't want to be Japan. Let's be clear, their economy is the US equivalent of the end of days. The equivalent of 2018 US growth one year followed by a 2009 recession the next, forever.

            • by skam240 ( 789197 )

              Let's be clear, their economy is the US equivalent of the end of days. The equivalent of 2018 US growth one year followed by a 2009 recession the next, forever.

              I remember hearing the same thing all the way back in the 80's. I havent heard it as much recently as it seems our conservatives have strongly embraced debt spending but I remember a lot of talk like this back then. I'm still pretty skeptical although as I've said I do think our debt is too high and we should be working it down some. Raising taxes on the affluent would be a great first start as well as raising corporate taxes as neither of those are even remotely close to historic highs or global highs as w

            • by skam240 ( 789197 )

              Hahaha, I read your post a bit wrong and just realized that. Sorry about that, you said Japans economy was at its end of days. Could be, I'd have to read a bit more to have more of an opinion on that specifically.

              • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 )

                I said Japan's economy is the US equivalent of the end of days. Japan is pretty worried about their economy, but they don't think it's collapsed, which is one of the reasons economists consider Japan extremely weird. It seems to do okay (maybe not great) even zero growth and a pretty much mandatory zero or negative interest rate. The US perspective, on the other hand, is that if an economy isn't growing by at least a few percent every year, it's failed. Five years of zero growth in the US would be considere

                • by skam240 ( 789197 )

                  Huh, I was trying to read into what you said something that made sense to me and assumed typos were made. What's so unique about Japan that the conditions you describe as being our near future downfall has only had a mild effect on them?

          • by DarkOx ( 621550 )

            isnt bad?

            Japan the country that is literally on the verge of demographic catastrophe because nobody is having any children is good? Sure they could open the borders and import people but the reason they need to do that is because there is no household formation and the accepted reason why young Japanese don't marry and have children is they can't afford it.

            Japan and the western world is rediscovering serfdom without realizing it. Sure maybe there is an elected government rather than a king but the reality i

      • by Srin Tuar ( 147269 ) <zeroday26@yahoo.com> on Friday November 10, 2023 @01:28PM (#63996119)

        > I havent heard any rumblings about their economy collapsing due to debt

        The last 30 years of Japan's history have been called the "lost decades" due to their stagnation and decline.

        Its certainly a failure mode and more than fair to call an eternal winter a type of "collapse". QE, first innovated in japan, is the monetary policy which enabled this, and it has certainly proved capable of drawing a recession out, but likewise incapable of ending one.

        Over these decades, their population has become an inverted pyramid, and more and more of the economy is now centrally owned. At some point QE will have to end; at the very latest when the BOJ owns 100% of the economy, making them a de facto soviet style state, at which point they cease having anything you can call an "economy" whatsoever.

        Having a shrinking working population supporting a huge pension state is another recipe for accelerated decline, either to that end state, or a more typical hyper-inflationary or deflationary collapse.

        This is certainly not a model to copy.

        • Yeah, regardless of fiscal policy, Japan is doomed. They forgot to reproduce.
        • by rsilvergun ( 571051 ) on Friday November 10, 2023 @03:27PM (#63996413)
          their problem is China and overwork.

          First, China's right there, and they ate Japan's manufacturing base for breakfast. What Chinese slave labor didn't take automation did. Go look up the Gundam factory. It's like 4 guys making half a billion kits a year.

          Thanks to Automation you really don't need that many young people to support a society. Now an economy is something else entirely. We've set it up so that to pry money out of the factory owners you need consumers, and with a shrinking population that's a problem.

          This can put the remaining young folk into a hilarious death spiral. There's fewer jobs because machines are doing them (and what machines aren't doing slaves in penal colonies are) so you're competing with everyone for less and less jobs which drives down wages further so you don't have kids which pushes companies to automate more so they can keep productivity vs wages at the same or better as last quarter so your wages go down again and you have even fewer kids and so on so on so forth.

          That's the death spiral Japan is in. The US avoided it so far because of immigration and, to be blunt, bubbles (.com and housing). But sooner or later the rest of the world is going to stop letting us have their kids (which will be in increasingly short supply, everyone's birthrates are below sustainability except some of Africa, and they're modernizing fast). So without changes the same fate is coming for us. China too.
      • by DMJC ( 682799 )
        When the US Debt structure falls apart, the Japanese economy will be the next domino to fall. Japan's economy only exists currently because they are able to trade older investments in foreign countries/play currency trades to stay afloat. If the US dollar system falls apart the Japanese system will rapidly collapse into hyperinflation.
    • by quantaman ( 517394 ) on Friday November 10, 2023 @11:54AM (#63995853)

      You can find well-thought-out articles from the 1980s that articulate how the US is imminently going to be in a debt crisis. Well the can-kicking went on for decades. But our debt is now 130% of our GDP which is passed what is commonly considered the point of no return. And you can expect the interest costs to keep growing as debt has to be rolled over into a higher interest rate environment. So unless interest rates rapidly go down AND we avoid a major recession, the problem will become a positive feedback loop.

      The million dollar question of course is what happens next. Historically countries that print their own currency don't default, they will inflate. This will not be a pleasant process. Inflation might be tamed for now but it tends to come in waves. Unlike in the 70s, we can't jack up interest rates to 17% as our debt ratio back then was much smaller. Perilous times but it will likely take longer to play out than we think.

      The US is the world's reserve currency.

      Therefore, when you print more money it's not just Americans biting the devaluation bullet, everyone takes a hit.

      So unlike those other countries you can actually print money to pay off your debt without huge inflation because wealth is also getting extracted from all the foreigners holding USD.

      That's one of the reasons why the US has such a strong economy, the basically perpetual wealth transfer from the rest of the world to you as a result of being the reserve currency. Also one of the reasons why Americans freak out about another currency taking its place (the only plausible candidate is the Euro).

      Oh, and most importantly, IANAE (I am not an economist). So everything I said might be complete BS.

    • The million dollar question of course is what happens next.

      Pfft, 'million' dollar question? Funny...

    • The parallels to the climate change "debate" are striking.

  • Unsustainable (Score:4, Insightful)

    by bradley13 ( 1118935 ) on Friday November 10, 2023 @11:16AM (#63995743) Homepage
    The level of deficit spending in the US is unsustainable. The credit rating of the US has already been downgraded once, just a bit. Sometime soon, it will go down again, raising those interest costs even higher. We are seeing the start of a really ugly feedback cycle.
    • Re:Unsustainable (Score:4, Interesting)

      by RightwingNutjob ( 1302813 ) on Friday November 10, 2023 @11:23AM (#63995771)

      Trouble is, everyone has the same problem. Therefore, everyone and their mother has a vested interest in keeping the masquerade going, at least for another decade or two. There are mechanisms to make this happen, but it'll be even uglier when the bubble pops. Think Great Depression times a factor of two or three plus social media and a soft population that's mostly ever only known first world problems for two or three generations. I'd say decamp to somewhere else, except there's no place worth living that doesn't have it as bad, or worse. Maybe that means personal and collective responsibility will come into vogue again.

    • True. But where to cut? Most of the expense is entitlements, but how do you cut that when all the voters all feel their particular group is the one being short-changed? And the biggest factor underlying the problem is slowing population growth, which is necessary to some degree (can't mushroom forever like it did throughout US history to this point), and also baked in for decades at this point even if the birth rate were to suddenly rise, which it won't.
      • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

        by quonset ( 4839537 )

        But where to cut?

        You could start with oil and gas companies. Is there a need for the U.S. taxpayer to have their money handed over to companies who are making multiple billions in profits?

        Wall Street should be next. Again, there is no need for the U.S. taxpayer to have their money taken and given to corporations whose literal job it is to make money. If these companies need the billions of dollars each year to stay alive, perhaps it's time to let them fail since they obviously can't survive without the

        • by dbialac ( 320955 )
          $160 million is more, but that's about the cost of 2 F-35s. In addition, how much does it cost to pay the salaries of the IRS employees. We should definitely continue with audits, but we need to show more for it.
          • Re:Unsustainable (Score:5, Informative)

            by whoever57 ( 658626 ) on Friday November 10, 2023 @01:15PM (#63996081) Journal

            how much does it cost to pay the salaries of the IRS employees. We should definitely continue with audits, but we need to show more for it.

            It's generally accepted that additional IRS agents results in the Treasury receiving additional taxes that are multiples of the cost to employ them, perhaps 5x. So IRS agents' salaries are the very last place you should be looking for cuts.

      • Most of the expense is entitlements

        Yes, entitlements that taxpayers have paid for and earned. But now that it's time for the government to pay the citizens their earned benefits they paid for it's suddenly a big problem?

        And it's not like it was an opt-out thing either, everyone was forced to pay in with the reasoning being that by doing so there'd be enough to pay out what you'd earned at the end. So now we're going to tell all those people who were forced to pay in, and were banking on that money for their retirement, that their money was

        • Social Security and Medicare aren't going away. In polls, quite a few people think they are, which to me is senseless since nobody wants that.

          I don't think everybody socking away lots of savings would have the effect people assume. If you have a lot of rich old people and a small number of workers, what you are going to see is rampant inflation. This has already begun in earnest in service industries like restaurants. Everybody saving a lot could make capital available for investments that will make the

          • Everybody saving a lot could make capital available for investments that will make the total economic pie larger in the future, but too much savings could also just reduce demand and thus current output, i.e. make everybody poorer.

            This idea is why central banks set their goals towards a small amount of inflation over disinflation.

      • It was called the sequestor [crfb.org]. The idea is simple: cut everything, all at once. But it couldn't affect Social Security or Medicare because reasons. So if those two things implode then you've got an entirely different mess on your hands.

        Otherwise though, one answer is to just cut everything, all at once, without considering the consequences.

        • by DarkOx ( 621550 )

          yes a politically that is about the only way can ever expect any meaningful reduction in government spending.

          It was the right thing to do, it is the right thing to do again

    • The credit rating of the US has already been downgraded once, just a bit.

      The U.S. credit rating has been downgraded twice. In 2011 and 2023.

      We are seeing the start of a really ugly feedback cycle.

      It's like the Bush (the second) years all over again. Using debt to finance debt. I'm sure Wall Street will tell us it's different this time.

    • Just a minor point. This posting is about the "nation's swelling debt repayment" and states that it had swelled beyond 1 trillion.
      There is a difference between dept end deficit.
      The deficit is the spending minus the income (taxes), and that is over 1.7 trillion in 2023, which is lower than in 2020. Here is yearly deficit curve: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/se... [stlouisfed.org] One can see that 2023 is a bit worse than 2022 but has gotten better during 2021 and 2022. Historically the US had it's highest deficit percentage
    • Re:Unsustainable (Score:5, Informative)

      by radarskiy ( 2874255 ) on Friday November 10, 2023 @02:10PM (#63996239)

      "The credit rating of the US has already been downgraded once"

      But not because of the amount of debt, but rather because of debt ceiling shenanigans. Even if the US had only short-term debt, the credit rating would be affected.

  • by wakeboarder ( 2695839 ) on Friday November 10, 2023 @11:20AM (#63995757)
    spending tomorrows GDP today
  • I don't understand much about finance and was wondering if this level of debt is somehow the path to centralized digital currency.
  • Somebody else asked who the recipients are. The people who voluntarily *buy* the bonds. Who are the payers. The taxpayers who don't voluntarily pay taxes you can be sure. So that's about $3k per person per year of interest in perpetuity.
  • Keynesian economics says that governments should run deficits in times of high unemployment, and surplus in times of low unemployment/inflation. Unfortunately, political leaders like to ignore that second part. The Inflation Reduction Act didn't do enough to pay down the debt (it raised corporate taxes). Therefore, a strong monetary policy had to be enacted at a high cost.
    • One could also look at the period of the IRA was passed in as a recession-type downturn which Keynesian economics would say is the time to spend and if anything the IRA is a model of a pretty decent bill combining spending with new tax revenues. I don't think he IRA had a goal of reducing the debt only covering as much of it's own spending as possible.

      What it definitely absolutely wouldn't say is to pass a $1-2T debt financed tax cut in 2017 when the economy was riding some historical economic peaks and on

    • Governments get deluded when times are good, so they spend more, only compounding things and being not able to bring out social safety nets or help mitigate things when the bottom falls out of the economy. For example, the 1T given to Wall Street in 2020 at the start of COVID would have been far better used for allowing businesses to keep running even without customers.

  • end medicare for boomers - its socalism.
  • Once the GOP is at the helm that will stop being an issue, no matter how fast it will keep growing.
  • The US collected about $5T in revenues in 2022. So that's 1/5th. Yes, it's blind stupid math and there's more to it... but that's a lot of money that can't fix roads or build bridges.

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