Famed Financial Analyst's Final Forecast? 'The Dollar is Finished' as World Reserve Currency (nytimes.com) 176
An anonymous reader shared this report from the The New York Times:
Over his 54 years as a financial analyst, Richard X. Bove perfected the art of grabbing attention... American Banker once called him "the country's most quotable bank analyst." Last week, a few hours after completing a spot on Bloomberg television, the 83-year-old announced his retirement. He took that weekend off — and then jumped right back in. In an interview with The New York Times, Mr. Bove (pronounced "boe-VAY"), who goes by Dick, shared a dire outlook on the U.S. economy and his former profession.
"The dollar is finished as the world's reserve currency," Mr. Bove said matter-of-factly, perched in an armchair outside his home office just north of Tampa, from which he predicted that China will overtake the U.S. economy. No other analysts will say the same because they are, as he put it, "monks praying to money," unwilling to speak out on the mainstream financial system that employs them...
As he spoke, a technician was trying to restore his home internet after his final employer, the boutique brokerage Odeon Capital, pulled the plug on his last day...
He sees the offshoring of American manufacturing as the ultimate threat to the financial sector and the dollar, because "the people making the goods elsewhere are getting greater and greater control of the means of production and therefore greater and greater control of the world economy and therefore greater and greater control of money."
The article notes that Bove was once called "The Loneliest Analyst."
"One way that's still true is that he endorses cryptocurrency — an area that few other financial analysts will touch — which he sees as a natural beneficiary of the decline of the dollar."
"The dollar is finished as the world's reserve currency," Mr. Bove said matter-of-factly, perched in an armchair outside his home office just north of Tampa, from which he predicted that China will overtake the U.S. economy. No other analysts will say the same because they are, as he put it, "monks praying to money," unwilling to speak out on the mainstream financial system that employs them...
As he spoke, a technician was trying to restore his home internet after his final employer, the boutique brokerage Odeon Capital, pulled the plug on his last day...
He sees the offshoring of American manufacturing as the ultimate threat to the financial sector and the dollar, because "the people making the goods elsewhere are getting greater and greater control of the means of production and therefore greater and greater control of the world economy and therefore greater and greater control of money."
The article notes that Bove was once called "The Loneliest Analyst."
"One way that's still true is that he endorses cryptocurrency — an area that few other financial analysts will touch — which he sees as a natural beneficiary of the decline of the dollar."
He's right (Score:3, Insightful)
He's not explaining the mechanism, but the conclusion is correct.
What's been going on the past few years is more or less that prediction coming to pass. Weaponizing international finance (e.g. sanctions) was going to result in this conclusion ultimately, but it's happening faster than one might have predicted 15 years ago.
Re: (Score:2)
OK, I'll bite. How?
Re: (Score:3)
Team BRICS not trading in dollars, basically. The accession of new countries is part of that arrangement. There are other reasons and issues, but owning infinitely inflating dollars is looked on less favorably now than in the past. That's the very point of the organization.
Re:He's right (Score:5, Insightful)
owning infinitely inflating dollars is looked on less favorably now than in the past
US inflation rate spiked in 2022, yes, but it has since come back down to a manageable 3.4%. That's lower than the average for the world (4.9%).
https://www.euromonitor.com/ar... [euromonitor.com]
By contrast, BRIC nations averaged around 5% in 2023. https://www.statista.com/stati... [statista.com], China's rate appears low, but economists do not believe China's reporting.
Re: (Score:3)
$30 an hour would be proper minimum wage, but we cant have that much of an increase, as it will cause worse inflation.
$1 items are $3 now... but minimum wage is still 7.25 in a lot of plac
Re:He's right (Score:5, Informative)
Since 1980 the share of workers who only make the federal minimum wage has fallen from 15% to 1.5%.
https://www.statista.com/stati... [statista.com]
Re: (Score:2, Troll)
Is this just a feelgood thing you present to people who dont care?
Re: He's right (Score:2)
Mmm...about that...
When minimum wage started in 1938, it was 25 cents per hour. In today's dollars, that's $5.32. today's minimum wage is higher than that. Your counter argument, of course, will come from cherry picking a particular time period and making that your official goal post.
Nevertheless, it has well more than kept up with inflation.
NB: You guys keep saying we should move to the Nordic model. Well, in the Nordic model, there is no minimum wage at all. They instead rely on collective bargaining agre
Re: (Score:2)
Sureo, If you keep it low enough, eventually nobody will want to work for that amount of money.
Re: (Score:3, Informative)
Oh wow! So this is why China's currency will become the world reserve currency? Sorry, I'm having trouble following your logic.
As for minimum wage, only 1.4% of Americans actually make minimum wage. https://www.statista.com/stati... [statista.com]. Basically only teenagers starting their very first job, make minimum wage, and even at that most start higher.
Inflation has nothing to do with minimum wage, or any wage. Inflation is measured as how much money is required to buy a representative "basket of goods." https://www.b [bls.gov]
Re:He's right (Score:4, Informative)
Inflation has nothing to do with minimum wage, or any wage. Inflation is measured as how much money is required to buy a representative "basket of goods."
The problem is that the "basket of goods" you refer to has been repeatedly revised in order to make inflation look less bad: https://www.youtube.com/watch?... [youtube.com] . You may regard this guy as a "YouTube influencer", but I'd be very interested to see your rebuttal of the points he makes.
From what I can see, CPI has been gamed by the powers that be to the point where it's more than a little scammy. It seems that definitions of inflation are a set of moveable goalposts, with the moving being done to benefit the moneyed class and to con the average citizen.
Re: (Score:2)
Re:He's right (Score:4, Interesting)
not a conspiracy theory.
modifying to to increast the percentage attributed to optional stuff like "digital goods" and the like, while reducing shelter for instance, leads to fake stats
https://www.brookings.edu/arti... [brookings.edu]
Re: (Score:2)
Thing is, when poor, the important things are food, shelter and fuel. Where I am, Canada, food is still inflating like crazy, especially stables. Shelter has finally slowed down, same with fuel, after inflating to way higher prices then a couple of years back, and they aren't likely to meaningfully drop.
Re: (Score:2)
I don't disagree with you. Inflation has been a thing lately, though it is now slowing down. Even food inflation in Canada is slowing down now. https://www.stats.govt.nz/info... [stats.govt.nz] Now, that doesn't mean prices will go back down to where they were, it just means that prices will stop rising so quickly.
You're also right that when poor, food, shelter, and fuel are critical. The good news is, since the pandemic, wages have increased the most at the bottom end of the economic scale. https://www.epi.org/publicatio. [epi.org]
Re: He's right (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
The "basket of goods" is surely climbing slowly. But hey, then how come we have an asset bubble in real estate?
Re: (Score:3)
I'm not sure what your point is, or how it's relevant. But since you asked, real estate prices remain inflated for several reasons
1. Record-low interest rates in 2020-2022 caused a buying frenzy. Borrowing was so cheap that people everywhere could trade up, or get into the market for the first time. I know, I was working in mortgage during those years.
2. Supply and demand. When there is a lot of demand for something, prices go up. There was a lot of demand for homes, so prices went up.
3. New home constructi
Re: (Score:2)
There is evidence that PPP loan fraud contributed to home price inflation. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/2... [cnbc.com] But it was by no means the primary factor.
Re: He's right (Score:2)
I think people getting married less is probably one of the biggest (if not THE biggest) contributor to low housing supply.
https://ourworldindata.org/liv... [ourworldindata.org]
Not that I'm an advocate of marriage or anything. Far from it actually. It's just a fact. If one person lives in a house that classically you'd put four into, then that's three fewer houses available.
Re: (Score:2)
I've got news for you...all those single people aren't exactly living alone.
But I'm sure you're right that this has had an impact.
Re: He's right (Score:2)
That's moot, just look at the numbers.
Re: He's right (Score:3)
Re: (Score:3)
If you were right, then all prices should be inflating, but they're not. Many product categories are experiencing deflation, including some groceries, electronics, and some appliances. https://fox59.com/news/nationa... [fox59.com]
The truth is, inflation is complex and not driven by a single factor across the board. In each category of expenses, inflation for that category is driven by supply and demand. When supply is higher than demand, prices fall, when demand is higher than supply, prices rise.
Supply and demand appl
Re: He's right (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
Oh I see! So this is all because secret, powerful people in smoke-filled back rooms are scheming to make you poorer. Is that about right?
In reality, the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes a great deal of data about how they calculate the CPI, including the specific "basket of goods" they use and the rationale behind it. https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ [bls.gov] They aren't doing this in secret, they show their work, it's all their for you to inspect and argue with.
Inflation today is actually quite low by historical standa
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
For a second, I thought I'd started reading an infomercial summary. You're really going to go with *crypto*???
When you bought that house, did you literally hand over a pile of silver? I very seriously doubt it. Nope, you had to convert it to gold old dollars.
Are you in Colorado? You even write like you've been smoking something.
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
All right well you apparently found the one guy that wanted silver. The rest of us are happy to be sheeple using...dollars.
Re: He's right (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
Well, great, I wish you the best.
Re: (Score:2)
Yeah, I called it, you are getting your education from crackpot YouTube influencers. It only took 10 seconds of watching your video to know that this guy is full of it, looking for conspiracies where none exists, and then pointing out all the correlations with his conspiracy theory to try to "prove" his point. "NOBODY is talking about it!"... There's no way I'm going to waste 20 minutes watching his entire video.
I can't say that you're wrong, because you've said nothing of substance. If you're calling the guy a crackpot based on "10 seconds" (or even 2 minutes) of a 20 minute video, then your 'rebuttal' is pretty much content-free and utterly lacks the power to change thinking minds.
Re: (Score:2)
All I had to hear was "Nobody's talking about this!" That's a sure sign that nothing of substance follows.
If you'd like me to address the substance of his points, how about you summarize them here, perhaps with some citations to actual authorities. THEN I'll address the points, such as they are. If there is merit to them, it should NOT require watching a video to make the argument.
Re: (Score:2)
A major thrust if his argument is based a blog post from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: https://fredblog.stlouisfed.or... [stlouisfed.org]
For me, the relevant text is as follows:
"For example, suppose chicken prices increase while turkey prices remain unchanged. The CPI-U implicitly assumes individuals continue to buy the same quantity of chicken. In contrast, the C-CPI-U recognizes that consumers will see the price change and substitute turkey for chicken. As a result of this expenditure shift, the price change is
Re: (Score:2)
Thanks, this is much better than a 20-minutes video!
Now, let's take the differences in perspective. The total difference between the two CPI numbers, from your link, over an 18 year span, is 5.21%. That's a difference of 0.29% on average per year. You're going to insist that this difference in calculations can only be explained by a government conspiracy to keep poor people poor? How about, economics is hard and complicated, and there are different rational ways of looking at the same numbers!
Yes, inflation
Re: He's right (Score:2)
While 'new appliances don't last' is popular trope it's largely attributable to survivorship bias. It's easy to remember that 30-year-old chest freezer that's still going. Of course you forgot about all the crap made 30 years ago that you have since replaced.
Safety and efficiency are other factors. I've noticed modern appliances fail as often as not due to a safely system of some
Re: (Score:2)
The minimum wage is not $7.25, anywhere.
Re:He's right (Score:5, Insightful)
That doesn't really explain anything though. BRICS is just a collection of bad actor states who are really only looking out for themselves and only have banded together in a common cause of avoiding economic repercussions for their actions. I still don't see how this leads to the US Dollar being dethroned as the world reserve currency. Honestly it sounds to me like you just have a bias against US monetary policy and this is just wishful thinking than actual prognostication. So if you have an actual theory as to how they will accomplish this, I'd love to hear it. But implying the end of the dollar by simply saying BRICS isn't really gonna sway anyone.
Re: (Score:2)
They're trading in other currencies then the US dollar, even buying oil in different currencies and between them, they are too big for America to go to war to stop their trade.
Every barrel of oil traded internationally in a currency other then the US$ weakens it, maybe not by much but it will add up.
Re: (Score:2)
I think you all are reaching on how much of an impact this actually has. I have yet to see a compelling argument as to why this is at all a threat to the dollar hegemony.
Re: (Score:2)
Part of the dollar hegemony is trade, the less that is done in US$, the worse for the hegemony. The saving grace currently is that there isn't a strong currency waiting in the wings to take over. If that changes...
Re: (Score:3)
Yeah, there is no currency that could possibly replace it. Yet people still want to act like the dollar is in danger somehow. Of course if another country arose as a dominant and stable power in the world it would challenge the dollar, that just makes sense. But that world isn't even on the horizon considering how China is way to insular and self-serving to ever play the role the US plays in the global market.
Re:He's right (Score:5, Informative)
Of course they're trading in currencies other than the dollar, because they're evading, or trying to evade, sanctions, not because anyone wants Yen. The Yen fell over 15% against the dollar in 2023, so if you made that "investment," you lost big. You just lost *much less* big on your otherwise-impossible oil and gas sales (Russia and Iran), and you saved a lot on those purchases (China and India, mostly).
Yes, things can change long-term, but increased Yen holdings by central banks is more of a "keep an eye on this," signal than a "sky is falling" scenario. I don't have a better crystal ball than anyone else, but I expect a regression closer to pre-Ukraine War norms when things stabilize. Either that or the whole thing will go tits up and currency will be moot.
Re: (Score:2)
I don't know if Brazil is evading sanctions. Anyways, to me it seems it is only the lack of a contender that is keeping the US$ on top. That might change or maybe not.
Re: (Score:3)
The problems os the one russia is currenlty having. russia has billions of indian rybi(?) Stuck in India and no way yo get them out. Unless India buys a lot of expensive russian planes that Russia cant afford to produce russsia cant get their money back
This has led to russia slowing down oil shipments to india.
Brics is a decent xonept that fails to guedd what happens when there is a trade imbalance, and what happens if china has a major ressesion.
Brics will collapse overnight
Re: (Score:2)
China is borderline recession now and possibly already there depending on how badly they've lied to the world in their financial reports.
Either way, their long term prospects are looking bad. See gdp, stock prices, demographics bubble burst, water shortage, economic malfeasance, you name it. No way to run a serious country.
This guy saying China is going to over take the US economy and crypto will replace USD is just nuts. I assume he isn't a total idiot and is just getting paid by someone to say these si
Re: (Score:2)
"Bad Actor States" is only what the US pretend they are, dissing your competition is always a good way of attempting a sway at it... doesn't always works and you eventually find yourself in the "schoolyard bully" category, which the US is firmly entrenched in since the end of WW2
Re: (Score:2)
You can be subjugated by the US, or subjugated by Russia. If your country isn't one of those two, those are your options. So, what 's it going to be?
Re: (Score:2)
The US doesn't subjugate anyone into any system. That's just absurdly untrue. For that matter neither does Russia (at least economically) nor China. Countries us the US dollar for international trade for a reason and it's not because the US forces anyone to. It's because it's a stable currency backed by the largest economy in the world with the largest military in the world.
Re:He's right (Score:5, Insightful)
No one gives two shits about what BRICS does, and Bove is apparently senile at this point. He's been wrong just as many times as he's been right when making predictions. He just never turned down a media request and always painted the numbers in a more entertaining way than any other analyst, but he wasn't some infallible master analyst.
Re: (Score:2)
50/50 isn't bad in a lot of circumstances, sure. But, with Bove, he doesn't paint the picture of a 50/50. He paints it as if it's already come to pass, with no chances of anything else happening. That's what a real shitty analyst does.
Re:He's right (Score:5, Interesting)
Reserve currencies are not about economics. They're about politics. And when you factor in politics, then the BRICS looks like a gaggle of loser goats bleating about how much it sucks that the US is so predominant.
But BRICS? Let's count the members. Brazil, Russia, India, China are the core "members" (quotations because BRICS is not a formal membership, it's just some Goldman Sachs guy describing what he thought would be the emerging opportunities back in 2001 [goldmansachs.com]). Later they added South Africa, Ethiopia, Egypt, and the UAE.
First of all, none of these countries are paragons of economic prosperity. India is doing well but has massive inequality issues to deal with. Brazil is schizophrenic, vacillating between rapid growth and massive slumps, but the bottom line is Brazil is highly productive in the wrong side of the planet; 50% of it's economic activity is centered in Sao Paolo alone; it's wealth is too concentrated to provide meaningful value. China has of course done well but has major problems economically with it's massive debt load and is entirely beholden to exporting; it's consumer market cannot consume it's manufacturing market at all, plus they rely on massive energy and agriculture imports to keep their economy going. Notably also too much of China's economic "growth" is in infrastructure investment, and the economic data is showing that they massively overbuilt this. There are only so many roads, bridges and ports you can build before those assets produce no value, and the estimate is they built homes in China for 3B but only have 1.4B, and they're now demolishing apartments because they overbuilt. It's not real "economic" activity if you build an apartment complex one year and then demolish it the next. Russia of course was driven almost entirely via oil and gas extraction, but they unfortunately cannot manage their own pipelines and relied on foreigners to run their equipment as their education system broke down in the early 90's and now no one is skilled enough to maintain it. Not to mention the Ukraine war is draining them of resources and young productive men. South Africa, like Brazil, is moderately productive but still struggling economically with the legacy of apartheid and massive inequality, and also is on the wrong side of the planet and the wrong continent. Egypt is a basket case. Ethiopia is moderately productive, doing well by African standards, but also politically unstable. The UAE is looking for places to park money.
But here's the thing: which currency becomes the reserve to replace the USD? Again it's a political issue, not an economics one. How about the Yen? Given China's highly unreliable financial system, none of these countries would agree to that. The ruble? It's deflated due to warmongering; no one trusts Putin anymore. The rupee? India has no friends, just partners. Not to mention India and China are always on the verge of war with each other with only the Himalayas keeping them from going at it, so cooperating on currency is a long, long ways off. Brazil? Not with their instability. A basket of currencies, or combined currency like the Euro? Which authoritarian government are you going to give control of that to? You really think Brazil or Russia or South Africa would hand over any of their fiscal policy to be run by Beijing? Do you really thing Beijing would agree to any control system that doesn't put China in total control of the policy? Authoritarian governments have no friends, only leverage. These countries will never agree to anything.
Egypt? They're a military dictatorship that receives over $1B USD in military aid from the US. Unless one of those countries can guarantee Egyptian military aid when they eventually lose it by signing up to a non USD currency, Egypt won't ever do anything. Ethiopia? UAE?
Re: (Score:2)
God I wish I had mod points right now.
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
Although in practice they often switch to assets pegged to the US dollar, such as Hong Kong Dollars, UAE Dirhams, and stablecoins.
In the long run the US dollar will probably be one of a handful of reserve currencies, rather than the only one.
Re: He's right (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2, Insightful)
Pretty common as Christ is too woke for many a Christian. Do you know he supported the poor and thought that being rich was a sin, while obviously being rich is a sign of Gods favour.
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
Pretty common as Christ is too woke for many a Christian. Do you know he supported the poor and thought that being rich was a sin, while obviously being rich is a sign of Gods favour.
Lol, no. "Being rich" isn't a sin, but serving money instead of God, is.
I do encourage you to read the gospels though. Find out for yourself.
Re: He's right (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
Ignoring your very leading question, Matthew 22:21 [biblemesh.com].
Re: He's right (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
you mean, those US troops going after nazi germany during WW2 ?
Re: (Score:2)
The venn diagram overlap of antifa and anarchists is pretty narrow.
Members of antifa come from a broad spectrum of ideologies ranging from center right to radical left, and while there are definitely people who want to tear down the existing systems in the country, the key part is that they then want to replace them with *other* structures. Anarchists typically want to get rid of the established systems and then not replace them, or if they do want to replace them, it's with the most minimalist systems poss
Re: (Score:2)
What's been going on the past few years is more or less that prediction coming to pass
What exactly has been going on the past few years?
Re: (Score:2)
He might be, if China were doing better. What's more-probable is that most fiat currencies worldwide will weaken simultaneously, and it'll be a race to see which one can depreciate in value more quickly.
Re: (Score:2)
I think what he want's to say is that, once China's economy overtakes US economy, Chinese currency will have enough traction in the global currency markets to become an alternative to the green back. Today US is able to "export it's debt", because USD is the de-facto currency for all trade globally. Euro could have been a viable alternative, and many predicted during the 2008 crisis that the world will shift towards Euro. But the EU break-up episode in the immediate aftermath proved otherwise.
But China itse
Re: (Score:2)
All the EU countries that opted out of the euro are glad they did.
This is just Denmark and Sweden with an opt-out who are glad to have one. Romania and Bulgaria are pressuring to be allowed to join. The only other remaining are Czech and Poland; both the new elected president of Czech Republic and the new PM of Poland support the adoption of the Euro in their countries (though it still might take years to happen).
Re: (Score:2)
The euro has even more problems. All the EU countries that opted out of the euro are glad they did.
That's nothing to do with the reliability/safety of the Euro. If anything it's because they want the option to devalue in future.
I agree with you though -- the dollar is at no real risk in the short or medium term. Greece defaulted half its debt. That wasn't good for the Euro in any sense.
The yuan isn't even a hard currency. It is tied to the dollar, and conversions are restricted.
Apparently no longer the case. But who trusts Xi to run a transparent and fair financial operation?
https://gjia.georgetown.edu/20... [georgetown.edu]
The Japanese yen? Japan is committing demographic suicide.
The Japanese economy is broken beyond belief. It's quite sad, really, and could have
Re: (Score:2)
the US economy is based on their ability to finance their weapons industry to wage war all over the world. this is slowly coming to an end.
Re: (Score:2)
China, really? (Score:5, Insightful)
China's economy isn't exactly flourishing these days. https://www.newsweek.com/china... [newsweek.com] China's currency may catch on with BRIC nations, but probably not Western ones, any time soon. China is gaining power, but a lot of that power has been built on pretense. It's going to take a lot to unseat the US dollar as the world's reserve currency.
Re:China, really? (Score:5, Interesting)
Re: (Score:2)
Also, doesn't China still peg the Yuan?
Re: (Score:2)
Yes indeed they do. https://globalfinanceschool.co... [globalfinanceschool.com].
Re: (Score:2)
Also, doesn't China still peg the Yuan?
Yes, the yuan is pegged to the dollar and also has capital controls.
Re: (Score:2)
No, but it used to.
https://gjia.georgetown.edu/20... [georgetown.edu]
Re: (Score:2)
Re:China, really? (Score:5, Interesting)
Not to mention China's birth rate is continuing to plummet and there is suspicion that they may be inflating reports of their population and birth rates, so they may be even lower than reported. On top of that, about 70% of Chinese household assets are real-estate with at least 65 million homes being unoccupied and not likely to be occupied anytime soon. That is a lot of a household's wealth in one basket. If China doesn't slow down on this new construction and the birth rate continues to decline, their entire economy will collapse and bankrupt pretty much every citizen. My guess is they've got maybe 10 years to "fix" at least one of those problems, and if they don't it will only take another 5-10 years for the collapse to happen. Manufacturers have already started looking for alternatives, and a couple I've read about have already moved out of China to places like Vietnam and India.
Re: (Score:2)
Oh, and at least two of the biggest Chinese developers, Sumac and Evergarde, filed for bankruptcy in the US because those two are massively in the red. For Evergarde, in 2021, they were negative more than 12x their best positive year ever, causing their equity to immediately flip to being underwater. I believe another 5 have defaulted billions of dollars of foreign debt, much of it to the US.
Re: (Score:2)
A counter view.
"What Would It Take for the Yuan to Dethrone the Dollar?
China would have to float the yuan.
End capital controls
Respect property rights
Have a bond market big enough (China has virtually no gov’t bond market)
Inspire global trust
Be willing to have trade deficits
Stop export mercantilism
Have a currency market big enough
from
https://mishtalk.com/economics... [mishtalk.com]
I don't necessarily agree with all of that, but it's a good case. Is there another alternative? Everyone wants to sell, not buy.
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
Plus, he endorses cryptoscams. Hard to take him seriously for that reason alone.
Re: (Score:2)
The world will not allow China to be a reserve currency. At least the bankers won't, which is what matters.
Why?
China has currency controls. You can only exchange so much cu
The world 'needs' reserve currencies (Score:5, Insightful)
Note the US economy is rocketing, as is the stock market. It's more at risk of overheating again than slow growth.
Anyone who talks about the dollar being finished right now is just in La La Land. Now, I used to trade commodities and, as a chartist, it's the most superstitious pastime. You have these 'magical' techniques that can predict the supposedly unpredictable. It makes you much more open-minded to nonsense and biased wrt your own country's economy. Your predictions become political ie BS.
Even if the dollar was doing badly, which it's not (it's been one of the strongest currencies out of over a hundred in the world), it still takes a much more reliable currency to take its place.
Who TF trusts China not to lie about their economy and even print money?
Thanks to Brexit, the UK is kinda fecked which means the Pound is no longer a reserve currency. This makes people turn to the dollar even more.
Dove points to the offshoring of American manufacturing. Well, the 50 years of that don't seem to have made much difference.
Re: (Score:2)
correction. the stock market has been rocketing. The US economy, as in, the economic outlook for most of the US population is pretty dire at this point.
Re: (Score:2)
And this is why nothing but Fox News gets into your brain.
Re: (Score:2)
There's a decent point buried in there, though: The old school indicators of economic success are definitely present. Stock markets are strong, profits are up, unemployment is down, inflation is dropping, interest rates are steady... all classic signs of a very strong economy.
Except that homelessness is skyrocketing, medical debt is increasing at an alarming rate, everyone is angry, people are accumulating unsustainable levels of debt to pay for basic necessities, individual family home ownership rates are
As the great philosopher said... (Score:2)
Predictions are hard, especially about the future
Is he selling gold in his retirement? (Score:3)
Re: Is he selling gold in his retirement? (Score:2)
He's full of shit (Score:5, Insightful)
There's simply no other currency in the world which nations will prefer as a medium of exchange.
Reserve currency requires a powerful navy in order to enforce trade controls. The US is the only country with a bluewater navy with range.
BRICS is largely irrelevant. They're not interested in using each other's currency since that would convey advantage to whichever country owns the currency. They simply don't trust each other that much and nor do they trade with each other. They simply all trade with China.
The Yuan is so shit, even the Chinese don't want it. The ruble is pretty much insolvent.
International trade is largely irrelevant to the US. The largest market of the US is the US. Internal demand is greater than external demand. Ergo, the currency is largely immune to the effects of trade wars and other shenanigans.
The US dollar isn't going anywhere and anyone contending otherwise is geopolitically illiterate.
Once again 70% of middle class jobs (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
We should have UBI, free education, free health care, free housing, free food, free clothing, free transport, free internet, free phone, free entertainment and no one will own anything and they'll like it.
Let the robots do everything. We don't even need money.
I hope this was sarcasm (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
he endorses cryptocurrency, and lost me (Score:2)
What is a BRICS currency .. (Score:2)