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Businesses The Almighty Buck

Can a Country Be Too Rich? Norway Is Finding Out (bloomberg.com) 157

Norway's $2 trillion sovereign wealth fund, equivalent to $340,000 per citizen, may be undermining the country's economic health, according to a contentious new book. Martin Bech Holte's "The Country That Became Too Rich" argues that oil revenue has made Norway bloated and unproductive, with data supporting several concerns.

Norway has recorded the slowest productivity growth among wealthy nations over the past two decades while Norwegians take 27.5 sick days annually, the highest rate in the OECD. Student test scores have declined since 2015 and now rank below the OECD average despite Norway spending $20,000 per student compared to the $14,000 OECD average. Fund withdrawals now cover 20% of the annual budget, up from less than 10% two decades ago.

Can a Country Be Too Rich? Norway Is Finding Out

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  • Growth is not production. If you grew in the past, you still have production. In fact, if you have overproduction, striving for growth is harmful. Striving for growth is not a good thing generally, as it naturally grows and shrinks with the amount of working people in a country.
  • they can give some to me. I'll relieve them of the burden.

  • by TWX ( 665546 ) on Monday July 28, 2025 @10:51AM (#65550030)

    Nobody's productive there anymore, they're too wealthy.

    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      by rsilvergun ( 571051 )
      Yeah this is classic line go up. We need limitless productivity increases in order to keep the ruling class of billionaires satiate it because if we ever stop feeding their maw they will devour Us in an instant.

      Nobody really likes to think about the cosmic horror that is the billionaire class and they are insatiable appetite for limitless wealth or how we are all mandated to keep feeding it.
      • by TWX ( 665546 )

        it sounds to me like Norway has determined that the mineral and oil wealth within its borders and territorial waters belongs to Norway first and foremost, and that while those who perform resource extraction get to profit handsomely off of that extraction, it's Norway that gets to profit first.

        If my assumption is correct, then this sounds like a reasonable model, particularly given how for so long, resource extraction was structured to privatize the costs while leaving only the liabilities and demerits as a

        • This idea that the natural resources of a nation belong to all the residents of that nation is one reason I have found myself so drawn to Georgism [wikipedia.org]

          As you said the companies tasked with the extraction and trade (economic rent) of the resources can and should profit nicely but that does not entail them to all of the profits and all of the wealth. The resources are shared and so should the revenues.

    • by whitroth ( 9367 )

      I agree. This means that all billionaires, and almost all millionaires, have zero productivity.

      Right?

      • Well, no, but on a per-dollar basis - a billion is a very, very big denominator. Or in other words their per-hour income is hard to justify on the basis of anything like 'merit.'

        It's really hard to say how much a winner has 'produced' compared to the alternative future in which they didn't exist. Bezos worked long and hard, without profits for many years, to bring Amazon about. He succeeded and a lot of us choose to buy a lot of stuff from Amazon all the time. What if he had not. None of the other onl

  • Be interesting to see this play out in a more western and liberalized culture.

    I live in a US state that is poor but gets most of what it does from oil money. I applaud the transition to renewables but it don't see how the state government will get by.

    • by mspohr ( 589790 ) on Monday July 28, 2025 @11:33AM (#65550108)

      1. Stop fossil fuel production.
      2. Tax the rich.
      They have lots of money.
      They aren't paying their fair share.

    • Switzerland has had this problem for 80 years now.
      From what I've read a couple of decades ago, Switzerland was a primary beneficiary from WW2. Quite apart from selling Oerlikon anti-aircraft guns to both sides, large sums had been deposited into bank accounts in that country by Jews who did not survive the war - and also by some Nazis later on. At least the Nazis were more likely to have immediate family members still living, unless they went for murder-suicides like Goebbels. It was allegedly policy for

    • What part of ND are you in?
  • You know what middle eastern oil countries/companies aren't doing? Mining for lithium. You know what they should be doing? Mining for lithium. And selling solar panels. They have to know oil is finite, right? Absolutely idiotic and complacent. Norway should have TSMC ARM and x86 chip-making factory already, everything I just mentioned, and AI datacenters. What do they have? Lazy idiots who sit around and count their money while producing nothing and contributing to "financial products" which are middleman b
    • by AlanObject ( 3603453 ) on Monday July 28, 2025 @11:23AM (#65550086)

      Yesterday a co worker was showing me pictures of his visit to Dubai. An amazing city that has absolutely no way to exist other than taking oil money and building financial empires. Beautiful buildings, clean, expansive and mostly empty highways (too hot) and like Phoenix sprawls out over dry, infertile land. Great entertainment, apparently.

      So what happens when that money source dries up? It won't be pretty.

      • The UAE's trillions are invested in everything across the globe. If the majority of money-making ventures in the world implode and they haven't shifted to non-imploding investments, then they'll have a big problem. They have all the resources of Blackrock making sure their fund continues growing.

    • A little nuclear power wouldn't hurt, either...

  • by dskoll ( 99328 ) on Monday July 28, 2025 @11:10AM (#65550062) Homepage

    So Norwegians score low on productivity and take a lot of vacation days. Who the fuck cares? If Norwegians are happy (and the data [worldpopul...review.com] indicates that they are) and have a satisfying lifestyle, good luck to them. Don't fetishize growth and productivity.

    • I don't know what the long term effects of being generally happy and financially secure are. Could be trouble. People might get complacent and stop striving to achieve things.

      • by dskoll ( 99328 )

        If people are generally happy, why should they "strive to achieve things"?

        Anyway, I think there will always be people who "strive to achieve things" in any society, but it's not as if that's necessarily the peak of morality.

    • Because you need people to do things, like help sick people, fix roads, keep the power on, and ship food around.

      If productivity is increasing or maintaining, and worker hours are decreasing, it doesn't matter. If productivity is decreasing, and worker hours are also decreasing, that's a problem.

      An extreme example would be the economy of the Soviet Union. They didn't care about productivity at all, initially. After a few years of not being able to provide basic goods and services, they turned to forced labor

      • by dskoll ( 99328 )

        I think an advanced Western economy and democracy won't go the way of the Soviet Union.

  • by buck-yar ( 164658 ) on Monday July 28, 2025 @11:13AM (#65550066)

    Student test scores have declined since 2015

    Sounds like they are due for a raise then. $20k per student, why not $50k? They have the money.

  • Line go up (Score:3, Interesting)

    by rsilvergun ( 571051 ) on Monday July 28, 2025 @11:16AM (#65550072)
    We need to be reducing productivity not increasing it.

    We are very much a society where if you don't work you don't eat.

    Over the past 50 years we have eliminated 70% of middle class jobs using automation. Mostly high paying factory jobs but there's plenty others out there.

    And we are about to do the AI apocalypse. It's basically a third industrial revolution that's about to hit.

    One of the problems is people want to think black and white. Either ai and automation is going to replace all the jobs or it's going to replace none of the jobs.

    The middle ground is scary though.

    People do not automate extremely low-paying jobs. So yes you can still find a guy in India making satellite dishes by hand because he's paid just enough to buy today's food so he can do tomorrow's work.

    The problem is we are going to automate the higher paying jobs first. Because of course we are.

    Those high-paying jobs are what drive the economy. Go look up how much of the spending in America is from Rich boomers with good paying jobs the leftover from before wages started to collapse. Try taking those older workers on the old pay scale out of the average wages and see how little Americans actually make.

    We have entire industries that will collapse because the high paying workers that maintain and support them with purchases aren't going to exist anymore.

    You can't go be a plumber when there aren't any engineers to hire you to fix their pipes because they're busy working on engineering.

    We could of course do the whole fully automated luxury gay space communism except we aren't fully automated yet.

    We still need some people to work the real problem is we've got some people who are completely useless. We just don't need them to work anymore in anything that they are capable of doing. Not willing,, capable.

    So if anything we need less productivity so that we can have more jobs and more make work to keep things going.

    The problem is nobody wants to pay for that make work and everyone wants to hoard and grab all the money and power for themselves.

    But only a few thousand people can get away with that. So like crabs in a bucket we are all going to be eating alive by those few thousand people.

    Too long didn't read, you're going to lose your house in about 6 years to somebody that wants to be the first trillionaire. And human psychology will prevent you from doing anything about it
    • "The problem is nobody wants to pay for that make work"

      When I was young we called those 'manufacturing jobs'. And they did pay for them...

      Get it?

      • No I don't.

        I don't understand how come you don't understand that those jobs don't exist anymore because they are done by machines.

        I get that you're being flippant, but you don't seem to be doing a very good job of it so I can't actually tell what point you're trying to make.

        You do have a old man yelling at cloud vibe though so there is that.
        • I'm not being flippant. Your argument has been made at least twice in my lifetime. First, when automation started taking those rote assembly jobs. Then when information systems started taking the paper filling and shuffling jobs. Accountants don't pore over bound ledgers any more, nor do they even fill in cells on spreadsheets, they work with the dashboards and apps to provide their insights and advice. Maybe. And those make work jobs at John Deere, for instance, so what is not possible for robots or automa

          • Doesn't mean it didn't hit the economy like a brick.

            Go look into what unemployment actually is if you include the gig economy workers who make sub-minimum wage and the people who just gave up looking. It's pushing 20% under those circumstances. Go look up the rise of working homeless.

            This is before we take into account that a single income can no longer support two people let alone a family. Hell, we are at the point where dual incomes cannot support a family.

            I'm guessing you blundered into a n
  • by deadweight ( 681827 ) on Monday July 28, 2025 @11:17AM (#65550074)
    This is a well-known issue. Most petro-states lag in productivity and development, "free money" from the well short-circuits it. Norway has done better than most at avoiding it, but apparently not completely. Spain had the same thing with endless gold and silver from their colonies back in the day, the only thing Spain ended up being good at was spending money.
    • by bramez ( 190835 ) on Monday July 28, 2025 @11:21AM (#65550082)

      Certainly! Here's the expanded Slashdot-style reply, with more detail about Norway's sovereign wealth fund (the "Oil Fund") and the full timeline repeated:

      Norway's actually been planning for a post-oil world for decades. They're in a pretty unique position: still producing oil, but investing heavily in a greener future and trying not to end up like other resource-cursed economies. Here's the rough breakdown:

      1970sâ"90s: Norway strikes oil in the North Sea, but instead of spending like crazy, they set up the Government Pension Fund Global (aka the "Oil Fund") in the 1990s.
      Itâ(TM)s a sovereign wealth fund that invests oil revenues into global marketsâ"stocks, bonds, real estate, and increasingly green projects. Itâ(TM)s now worth over $1.6 trillion, and they only use ~3% of it annually in the national budget.
      The idea? Donâ(TM)t let oil wreck your economy, and save for the day the oil runs out.

      2000s: Started building the foundations of a low-carbon economy. Early EV tax incentives, hydropower upgrades, carbon capture research. The Oil Fund keeps growing like crazy.

      2010s: Transition starts to get serious. EV sales explode thanks to strong subsidies and zero VAT. They start deploying electric ferries and buses, roll out offshore wind pilots, and develop large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects. Norway signs onto the Paris Agreement in 2015.

      2020s: Full-blown green shift.

      80â"90% of new cars sold are fully electric.

      Big investments in green hydrogen, battery manufacturing, and maritime electrification.

      The Oil Fund begins pulling out of some fossil fuel holdings.

      Climate policy gets realâ"thereâ(TM)s a legally binding national action plan through 2030.

      2030s (Projected): Managed oil production decline begins. Fossil fuel car sales are banned by 2025. A lot of oil workers retrain into jobs in offshore wind, CCS, and green tech. Norway becomes a major exporter of clean electricity. The economy slowly decouples from fossil revenue.

      2040sâ"50s (Projected): Net-zero emissions reached. The oil sector is just a legacy piece. Economy is sustained by:

      Returns from the massive Oil Fund

      Clean energy exports (hydro, wind, maybe hydrogen)

      High-tech manufacturing and digital services

      Bottom line: Norway used oil wealth to build a future without oil. Not perfectâ"theyâ(TM)re still drillingâ"but theyâ(TM)ve probably done more than almost any other petro-state to prepare for the inevitable.

  • Right, so in Norway nobody is going hungry, dying from being too poor to afford medical treatment, being kept down by an inability to access education, having to go in to work when they're sick, or freezing to death on the streets because they're out of options?

    "They've got a huge problem!"

    So say people whose own countries have all those problems and spend more on worse outcomes.

    The Norwegians' biggest risk is "good times make weak men" but at least one author I listen to on YouTube indicates that Viking Cu

    • If anyone is interested in an actual historian tackling (lengthily) the meme of "good times make weak men" and how it really is just a quote from a novelist and little historical bearing on events, he calls it the "Fremen Mirage".

      Collections: The Fremen Mirage, Part I: War at the Dawn of Civilization [acoup.blog]

      In Part I and II of this series, we put this idea to the test, trying to see if it actually served as an accurate description of historical processes. And by and large, we found thatno, it did not. Far from bein

  • by MpVpRb ( 1423381 ) on Monday July 28, 2025 @11:45AM (#65550138)

    ...the myth that endless growth is not only possible, but necessary
    The headline claims that "slowest productivity growth" is a problem
    Endless growth is impossible
    We need steady-state sustainability

    • by Junta ( 36770 )

      If you say the numerical representation of wealth can endlessly grow, sure, that's just a number. There's no such thing as objective, true numerical value, so if you have a system that is predicated on "line always goes up", you can make that system function even under static constraints by somehow changing how the numbers map to reality.

      To his credit, he points to non-money indicators, like ability to succeed on tests.

      It is fair to say that we can't consume exponentially more resources or create exponenti

    • ...the myth that endless growth is not only possible, but necessary

      And yet if I ask you, you would admit to wanting more. More healthcare and mental health for the poor, more money for vaccines for people in Africa, more research for cancer and heart disease. I'm sure you want a bigger house, more vacation time... We all want more, some of just admit it.

      All western governments are pyramid schemes. We have promised our elderly retirements that they didn't have to save for, we have promised healthcare for aging populations. We can't do that unless then next generati

  • How dare a country with a lot of wealth enjoy that wealth.

  • by fuzzyfuzzyfungus ( 1223518 ) on Monday July 28, 2025 @12:25PM (#65550236) Journal
    You know that someone has a couple of screws loose when they are treating "sufficiently wealthy that working hard is optional" as some kind of disaster.

    Isn't that the whole point of being wealthy? Sure, if your hobby is making line go up you do you; but for most people money is a means to an end, not an end in itself, so if you've already got the money why would you keep grinding away when you could be pursuing your ends instead?
    • by Junta ( 36770 )

      Depends.

      Is it the case that everyone can stop working hard, or that some people get to do that while others get to work even harder to support that working hard?

      If Norway gets to slack off and have a fantastic lifestyle, but only because they can import just tons of crap from more exploitative countries, that wouldn't be good.

      If everyone around the world gets to slack off and still sustain a great lifestyle, then fantastic. This is in fact the goal, we should be thinking not of "can I get enough work" and m

  • by Quakeulf ( 2650167 ) on Monday July 28, 2025 @12:57PM (#65550360)

    As a Norwegian living in Norway I don't get to see any of this "wealth". The roads outside everywhere I have lived have been nothing above developing countries' standards, meanwhile the government keeps embezzling billions of NOK and spending over 70% of our country's welfare budget on foreigners. Meanwhile they tax me over 50% for working in the provate sector, and I have to fight for the bare minimum of fairness. What am I paying taxes for? (Yes, I will be downvoted for this because I don't benefit from this and because I go against the cool-aid drinkers.)

  • How have we been tricked into believing that GDP growth is the only way to measure success?

  • What makes Norway any more special than all the other wealthy countries that have so much excess oil/gas they amass wealth faster than they spend it?

    • A few things for sure. Ostensibly, Norway has a diversified economy, but the dominant driver for soverign wealth really is oil. They have insanely high taxes-- a beer is $15 at a bar or $7 in the government monopoly liquor store. They do a good job with housing though, keeping costs quite affordable.

      They import a lot of workers who end up paying additional taxes to fund the government and growth, but hard to really tell how sustainable that is.

  • So why is it here? Even if I do care about how Norway allocates resources, I'm not caring about it in a tech context.

    msmash, you suck as an editor.

  • "....Norwegians take 27.5 sick days annually, the highest rate in the OECD. "

    Finland, the next one on the list has 0.9 day less, so no GASP!

    It's COLD outside.

  • by Fly Swatter ( 30498 ) on Monday July 28, 2025 @06:52PM (#65551464) Homepage
    Everything must grow, forever.

    Put some fish in a small aquarium and tell me how that works out.
  • They have a sovereign wealth fund, and because of it they're not forced to try to achieve constant unsustainable growth. And that's a bad thing.

    Ok...?

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